|
|
本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-10-31 09:13 编辑
【中文标题】中印战争：亚洲巨人爆发冲突的设想
【原文标题】China and India at War: Study Contemplates Conflict Between Asian Giants
【登载媒体】时代周刊
【来源地址】http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/10/28/china-and-india-at-war-study-contemplates-conflict-between-asian-giants/
【译 者】 WilliamRUC
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
There are plenty of reasons why China and India won't go to war. The two Asian giants hope to reach $100 billion in annual bilateral trade by 2015. Peace and stability are watchwords for both nations' rise on the world stage. Yet tensions between the neighbors seem inescapable: they face each other across a heavily militarized nearly 4,000km-long border and are increasingly competing against each other in a scramble for natural resources around the world. Indian fears over Chinese projects along the Indian Ocean rim were matched recently by Beijing's ire over growing Indian interests in the South China Sea, a body of water China controversially claims as its exclusive territorial sphere of influence. Despite the sense of optimism and ambition that drives these two states, which comprise between them nearly a third of humanity, the legacy of the brief 1962 Sino-Indian war (a humiliating blow for India) still smolders nearly five decades later.
有很多理由阻止中印之间的战争。两个亚洲巨人希望在2015年之前达到1000亿的双边贸易额。和平与稳定也是两个国家在世界舞台上提高地位的口号。但是这两个邻国之间的紧张局面似乎无法避免：在将近4000千米长的边境线上双方布下重兵，还在全球展开争夺资源的激烈竞争。印度在南海海域的利益寻求令中国愤怒——这里被中国视为其独占的势力范围，中国在印度洋海岸的项目也让印度不安。尽管两个国家努力保持积极与进取的关系，占世界三分之一人口的中印两国在近50年后依旧笼罩在1962年战争的阴影中。
And it's alive on the pages of a new policy report issued by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, an independent think tank that is affiliated with India's Ministry of Defense. "A Consideration of Sino-Indian Conflict" is hardly a hawkish tract — it advocates "war avoidance" — but, by spelling out a few concrete scenarios of how conflict may look between the two countries, it reveals the palpable lack of trust on the part of strategists both in New Delhi and Beijing. The report applauds long-term Indian efforts underway to beef up defenses along the Chinese border, but warns that Beijing may still take action:
印度外交部在新德里下设的国防研究与分析研究所最新出台了一份政策报告，这家独立智库即认同上文提出的观点。“中印冲突论”倒不是什么鹰派理论，它提倡的不过是为了“避免战争”。不过通过描述两国冲突的一些景象，的确反映了北京和新德里战略家们的信任缺乏。该报告鼓励印度加强在中印边境的防御，不过警告说北京方面可能理解会采取行动。
In future, India could be subject to China's hegemonic attention. Since India would be better prepared by then, China may instead wish to set India back now by a preventive war. This means current day preparedness is as essential as preparation for the future. A [defeat] now will have as severe political costs, internally and externally, as it had back in 1962; for, as then, India is yet again contemplating a global role.
未来印度可能是中国霸权势力的关注对象。介于印度在那时准备得更充分，中国可能在现在通过一场战争避免那种情况发生。这意味着现在的防备与为未来准备同等重要。当然一场战争会在国内外付出一些政治代价，正如1962年时，不过印度依旧是不可忽视的国际角色。
While a lot of recent media attention has focused on the likelihood of Sino-Indian clashes at sea, the IDSA report keeps its scope trained along the traditional, glacial Himalayan land boundary, referred to in wonkish parlance as the LAC, the Line of Actual Control. Since the 1962 war, China and India have yet to formally resolve longstanding disputes over vast stretches of territory along this line. Those disputes have resurfaced noticeably in recent years, with China making unprecedented noises, much to the alarm of New Delhi, over its historical claims to the entirety of the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh — what the Chinese deem "Southern Tibet." The Chinese even rebuked Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for having the audacity of visiting the Indian state during local elections in 2009.
尽管最近媒体的注意力集中于中印的海上冲突，这份报告则将注意力集中于传统的喜马拉雅边境，即1962年后的实际控制线上。中国和印度还没有在这片广袤疆界上解决领土争端。最近几年争端又浮出水面，中国给新德里的警告是，中国认为印度的阿鲁纳恰尔邦是历史上的藏南地区。中国还怒斥印度总理辛格在2009年地方选举期间访问该地区的行为。
Not surprisingly, it's in this remote corner of the world that many suspect a war could kick off, particularly around the historic Tibetan monastery town of Tawang. India has reinforced its position in Arunachal with more boots on the ground, new missile defenses and some of the Indian air force's best strike craft, new Russian-made Su-30 fighters. After decades of focusing its army west against perennial threat Pakistan, India is tacitly realigning its military east to face the long-term challenge of China.
在世界上最偏僻的这一地区发上一场战争毫不令人惊讶，何况是在西藏历史圣地达旺附近。印度已在阿鲁纳恰尔邦地区加强了军事存在，包括新型的导弹防御系统和印度最优秀的空军力量——俄制苏30歼击机。几十年来将自己军队力量集中部署于巴基斯坦的印度正战略性地将力量转向东方，以面临中国的长期挑战。
The report speculates that China could make a targeted territorial grab, "for example, a bid to take Tawang." Further west along the LAC, another flashpoint lies in Kashmir. China controls a piece of largely uninhabited territory known as Aksai Chin that it captured during the 1962 war. Indian press frequently publish alarmist stories about Chinese incursions from Aksai Chin and elsewhere, playing up the scale of Chinese investment in strategic infrastructure on its side of the border in stark contrast to the seeming lethargy of Indian planners. Part of what fuels the anxiety in New Delhi, as the report notes, is the threat of coordinated action between China and Pakistan — an alliance built largely out of years of mutual antipathy toward India. In one mooted scenario, Pakistan, either with its own forces or terrorist, insurgent proxies, would "make diversionary moves" across the blood-stained Siachen glacier or Kargil, site of the last Indo-Pakistani war in 1999, while a Chinese offensive strikes further east along the border.
报告指出中国可能发动有目标的领土占领，“比如出兵达旺”。实际控制线更西的另一个焦点地区则是克什米尔。中国在那里控制着1962年战后取得的无人区域阿克塞钦。印度媒体时不时发表中国占领阿克塞钦和其他地区的警示性报道，夸大中国在战略基础设施方面的投入，以与似乎沉睡的印度计划对比。报告指出，引发新德里焦虑的一项原因是中国和巴基斯坦的合作，一种对印度多年反感而形成的联盟。一个可能的情况是，巴基斯坦通过自己的部队或者恐怖主义代理人，运用“声东击西”的做法穿过血浸的锡亚琴冰川或卡吉尔（1999年印巴战争的停火点），同时中国在东部发动侵略。
Of course, such table-top board game maneuvers have little purchase in present geo-politics. Direct, provocative action suits no player in the region, particularly when there's the specter of American power — a curious absence in the IDSA report — hovering on the sidelines. Intriguingly, the report seems to dismiss the notion that China and India would clash in what others would consider obvious hotspots for rivalry; it says the landlocked Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan would likely be treated as a neutral "Switzerland", while Nepal, a country of 40 million that entertains both Beijing and New Delhi's patronage, is more or less assured that neither of its big neighbors would risk violating its sovereignty in the event of war.
当然，这样的棋盘游戏并不符合现在的地缘政治。挑衅性行动对这一地区的国家并无好处，尤其还在美国力量介入双方战线的情况下——那份报告竟将此忽略了。有趣的是，报告好像忽略了其他人想象的中印交锋热点。它认为内陆的喜马拉雅王国不丹可能会被看做中立的“瑞士”。而中国和印度均努力拉拢的尼泊尔，这个拥有四千万人口的国家或多或少地肯定它的两个庞大邻国不会在战争中侵犯主权。
Moreover, the IDSA seems to rule out either side encouraging or deploying proxies in more clandestine struggles against the other. The restive border regions on both sides of the LAC are home to resentful minority populations and more than a few insurgent factions. India and China — unlike Pakistan — have little precedent in abetting militant groups and strategists on both sides would be wary of fanning flames of rebellion that no one can put out.
此外，报告似乎将双方通过秘密斗争鼓励或培植代理人的可能排除了。生活在停火线两边的人们都是少数民族和叛乱分子。中国和印度不像巴基斯坦那样，拥有扑灭叛乱分子的经验。
Yet what seems to stoke Sino-Indian military tensions — and grim prophecies of conflict — are precisely these feelings of vulnerability. The uncertainties posed by both countries' astonishing economic growth, the lack of clear communication and trust between Beijing and New Delhi and the strong nationalism underlying both Indian and Chinese public opinion could unsettle the uneasy status quo that now exists. Managing all this is a task for wooly-heads in New Delhi and Beijing. But don't be surprised if more reports like this one come out, drawing lines on the battlefield.
然而中印军事紧张局面和预言中冲突的关键因素不过是情感上的脆弱而已。两国在经济发展中的不确定因素，北京和新德里之间交流与信任的缺乏，以及两国公共舆论之中强烈的民族主义情结都对现在的困难情况有影响。中印领导人应该控制这些因素。不过类似的报告将双方带入战争并不令人惊讶。
相关阅读: http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/10/28/china-and-india-at-war-study-contemplates-conflict-between-asian-giants/#ixzz1c4F3DxJ1
|
评分
-
3
查看全部评分
-
|
狗仔卡
楼主
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2011-10-30 14:27
