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【卫报111030】中国如何拯救欧元区

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发表于 2011-10-31 11:08 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
【中文标题】中国如何拯救欧元区

【原文标题】How China can save the eurozone


【登载媒体】卫报

【来源地址】http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/30/china-global-financial-crisis-g20-cannes?newsfeed=true

【译    者】 WilliamRUC

【翻译方式】   人工

【声    明】 欢迎转载,请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【译    文】
Chinas-oldest-and-second--007.jpg
This is a historic moment for the eurozone. The sovereign debt crisis has put European monetary union in jeopardy and called into question the sustainability of the European project. Given the economic and political weight of the eurozone, the crisis has the potential to match the damage wrought by the 2008 US financial crisis on the global economy. So China should welcome last week's agreement in Brussels and, in advance of the G20's meeting this week in Cannes, consider using its wherewithal to lend a supporting hand.
Europe is China's largest trading partner and China is Europe's second largest trading partner. Their bilateral dealings were valued at €363bn last year. In 2009, the onset of global recession cut China's exports to the EU by 15.6%, resulting in a sizable surge in unemployment and factory closure in southern China. A deep financial crisis in the eurozone and the resulting reduction in spending would be felt particularly strongly in export-oriented provinces in southern China. To the extent that a supporting hand from China can contribute to a creditable resolution of the sovereign debt crisis and limit its negative impact on economic growth in the eurozone, there is little reason for China to stand on the sidelines.
  我们正在经历欧元区的历史性时刻。严峻的债务危机将欧洲货币联盟打入危险境地,欧元项目的稳定问题迫在眉睫。鉴于欧元区在经历和政治上的重要性,这场危机堪比2008年诶过财政危机对全球经济造成的损害。在戛纳召开G20峰会之前,上星期在布鲁塞尔达成的协定理应推动中国伸出援助之手。
  欧洲是中国最大的贸易伙伴,而中国是欧洲第二大贸易伙伴。去年他们的双边贸易额高达3630亿欧元。2009年,全球萧条导致中国对欧洲的出口下降了15.6%,导致了华南地区大量工厂倒闭和庞大的失业率。欧元区的深度危机和由此导致的消费下降牵连到中国南部的出口指向型省份。对欧洲提供援助并缓解其债务危机,中国能够减少欧元区经济增长放慢对其造成的不利影响。中国没有理由袖手旁观。

Maintaining the euro as a reserve currency is in China's interest. China currently lacks the necessary institutions that would permit the country to adopt a floating exchange rate regime with free capital flows. The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, isn't run as an independent monetary authority. And even its monopoly control over monetary policies can sometimes seem questionable. Under the prevailing institutional environment, China's only viable option is to maintain its currency peg, but add some upward flexibility on the exchange rate.
A stable euro, underpinned by sound monetary policies of the European Central Bank, would offer China more options in managing its monetary policies. It would give Chinese policymakers time to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and to correct the imbalance in its economic structure, while creating a relatively stable economic environment that is conducive to longterm economic development.
  以欧元作为外汇储备符合中国的利益。中国尚未建成允许汇率自由浮动的机制。中国的央行中国人民银行并不单独作为货币管理部门运营。即便如此,它对货币政策有限的控制在有些时候也令人怀疑。在现行体制环境下,中国唯一的选择就是保持现在的货币政策,但是在此基础上增加汇率的灵活度。
  在欧洲央行健全的货币政策管理下稳定的欧元能够为中国制定货币政策提供更多选择。如此能够提供给中国的政策制定者分散外汇储备品种的机会,并修正经济结构上的不平衡,由此建设一个符合长期经济发展利益的稳定经济环境。

A prosperous Europe also offers the best chance of creating a multipolar global economic system. As the US enters another election year, it is again open season on China. With Republican candidates and the Democrat-controlled US Senate clamouring to label China a currency manipulator, trade and investment frictions are bound to increase. China will need to rely on the independence and impartiality of the WTO in adjudicating any future trade disputes with the US, and only a multipolar global economic system can guarantee this.
Even as China agrees in principle that it will contribute to the European rescue plan, details of the support will need to be negotiated. For Chinese participation to receive broad political support both at home and in Europe, the rescue plan must provide sufficient safety margins for success. China cannot be expected to lose money in this venture, although it should not have the right to dictate economic policies in the eurozone.
  一个繁荣的欧洲能够为全球经济体系多极化创造最好的机会。随着美国进入又一个大选年,又是一个对中国开放攻击的时候了。共和党候选人们和民主党党控制的参议院指责中国操纵汇率,贸易与投资额止步不前。中国将需要依靠世贸组织的独立性和公正性,与美国在贸易争端中展开较量。只有一个多极化的经济系统能够确保如此。
  尽管中国在原则上同意为征求欧洲提供帮助,具体细节仍然有待商议。鉴于中国参与在国内与欧洲都获得了广泛的政治支持,拯救方案必须提供高效安全的盈利率。中国在这场资本运作中不应该吃亏,当然它也不能由此直接指挥欧元区的经济政策。

While uncertainties can never be completely ruled out, last Thursday's agreement represents a solid step toward resolving the crisis. China's participation could bring a sizable amount of capital to bear and should materially improve the chance of success.
How can China help? It could contribute to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) directly or by providing it with a back-stop on request. EFSF, which is owned by eurozone governments, looks like a safe bet so long as measures can be taken to mitigate the exchange rate risks that China faces. For example, part of the contribution can be denominated in Chinese yuan. China could also contribute to a European rescue fund within the IMF.
  同时不确定性并未完全消散,上周四的协议只是代表了解决危机的一小步。中国进入将带来一大笔资金,我们应当确保提高成功的可能性。
  中国怎么帮欧洲呢?它可以选择直接为欧洲财政稳定机构(EFSF)注资,也可以根据她的请求提供帮助。为欧元区政府拥有的EFSF看上去像是中国减轻汇率风险的完全手段。比如,部分注资可以直接使用人民币。中国也可以通过国际货币基金组织拯救欧洲。

And what would China ask in return? It could ask for the EU to recognise its market economy status. This would be a symbolic victory for China, since the EU has acted largely responsibly over trade with China in the past. And since it is symbolic, the EU could equally refuse to do so. Either way, both sides win, or at least don't lose, on the political scoreboard.
China could use this opportunity to raise its share of voting rights in the IMF by taking over additional voting shares from European countries. This would increase China's influence in this multilateral institution commensurate with its economic weight in the global economy. By participating in the rescue plan, China announces to the world that it is a willing and responsible stakeholder.
  中国可以要求什么回报呢?它可以要求欧洲承认完全市场经济地位。这对中国来说是一场象征性的胜利,考虑到过去欧洲对华贸易表现极为不负责的情况。既然这是象征性的,欧洲也可以在事实上拒绝那么做。不管如何,在政治的记分牌上双方都有加分,至少没有丢分。
  中国可以通过获得一些欧洲国家的投票权来增加自己在国际货币基金组织中的投票权。这将使它在这家多边机构中增加影响,以与其经济地位相称。通过加入拯救方案,中国对世界宣布它是一个有作为和负责任的利益相关者。


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感谢翻译,文章发布地址。http://article.m4.cn/fm/1132418.shtml  发表于 2011-10-31 12:45

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发表于 2011-10-31 11:44 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 壮家儿女 于 2011-10-31 11:44 编辑

拿欧洲国家的海关收税权来担保。我们可以借你们钱。不就一万多亿美元吗?其他虚的我们不要。
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发表于 2011-10-31 23:36 | 显示全部楼层
天下没有免费的午餐,要钱就拿东西来换
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