China's 99% -- Why China Will Not Surpass the U.S.
中国的99%--为什么中国不会超越美国
The received wisdom these days is that the West is in rapid decline, and China is on an upward trajectory that cannot be stopped. Sooner or later the pundits say, the two lines will cross-- perhaps explosively-- and China will rule the world. The latest evidence? Klaus Regling heading to Beijing on Friday to beg for Chinese financial aid to rescue Europe. It is certainly a long way from the foreign treaty ports and other indignities that China suffered at European hands in the last century... I wonder if there is a Chinese word for schadenfreude?
今天人们普遍相信西方国家正在急剧衰退，而中国正在不可阻挡地飞速发展。连专家们都说，两者的境地迟早会发生逆转，这个过程也许会非常快，而之后中国将会支配世界。欧洲金融稳定机构主管克劳斯雷格林本周五前往北京乞求中国施舍财政援助以拯救欧洲就是最新的例证。当年中国遭受国辱，被迫和欧洲国家签订各种不平等条约。时过境迁，已经一个多世纪过去了。我常会想中文里是否有表达shadenfreude（幸灾乐祸）意思的词语？
I might have contributed modestly to the momentum theory of China's ascendancy myself with the 2003 article that David Hale and I wrote for Foreign Affairs, China Takes Off. To say that China is rising is one thing however, because that is undoubtedly true. To say that China will rule the world is quite another.
在2003年，我和David Hale曾一起为《外交事务》撰写了一篇题为《中国腾飞》的文章，描述了中国不断发展并且占有支配地位的原因。中国正在飞速发展，这一点是无可辩驳的，但要说中国将会支配世界的话，这还有待商榷。
An amazing number of Americans who were polled recently incorrectly believe that China's economy is already bigger than the US. The view from inside China is somewhat different. As any thoughtful person there will attest, China faces a slew of obstacles at this stage of its development. China might be a rich state, but its people remain poor. China may become the world's largest economy in 2016 according to optimistic estimates by the IMF, but that simply means that total output will be larger than in the US. A country with 1.3 billion people should have an economy larger than one with .3 billion in absolute numbers: China's population is more than four times larger. If both economies were exactly the same size, China's GDP per capita would be just 25% compared to the US.
最近一次民意调查中，居然有相当数量的美国人误以为中国已经成为超过美国的经济体，而中国人的看法却大相径庭。他们中每一个仔细思考过的人都认为中国在目前的发展阶段中正面临着各色各样的障碍。中国或许是个富有的国家，但是她的民众依然贫穷。根据国际货币基金组织的乐观预计，中国会在2016年成为世界最大经济体，但这只是意味着中国的总产值会超过美国而已。从绝对数量上来说，一个拥有13亿人口的国家的经济理应要比一个只有3亿人口的国家来的大。中国人口是美国人口的4倍多。假设两者的经济水平完全相等，那中国的人均GDP也只有美国的25%。
What this means is that in spite of the overall size of its economy, the standard of living in China is correspondingly lower. Just one example to put this into perspective: only 20% of Chinese people have flush toilets. The inescapable fact is that a world in which Chinese consume at the same rate as Americans is a world that cannot exist, based upon available resources of food, water, energy, and other commodities and products such as cars. It would require by some estimates four plant Earths. There is a natural limit to Chinese consumption simply because there are so many Chinese people. This might be unfair, but it means that the great majority of Chinese will not be able to enjoy the kind of life we live here in the US absent exponential and unforeseen technological progress.
这意味着虽然中国的经济总量很大，但是民众的生活水平相对还是相对较低的。有个简单的例子可以说明这一点：只有20%的中国人拥有抽水马桶。鉴于食物、水、能源以及其他日用品和汽车这样的消费品等等资源数量有限，假如中国的消费水平和美国一样的话，世界将不复存在。这一点是毋庸置疑的。据估计，要有四个地球才能负担得起。因为中国人口数量巨大，所以中国的消费水平受到自然制约。这也许很不公平，但是如果科技没有得到巨大进步和突破的话，绝大多数中国人都无法享受到我们在美国能享受的生活水平。
Demographics play a crucial role in terms of limiting Chinese growth and economic prosperity. China's population, similarly to Japan, is getting older. The difference is that the Chinese are not going to be as rich as the Japanese by the time that much of their population is over the age of 65. By 2040, assuming current demographic trends continue, there will be about 400 million Chinese elderly with fewer descendants to take care of them than in previous generations. According to a report by CSIS, The Graying of the Middle Kingdom instead of the current ratio of 6:1 working adults to elder dependents, by the middle of this century there will only be about 1.6 working adults for each elder. Due to the lack of job-related and government pension funding the end result will be that China's savings, upon which her wealth has been built, will erode. China faces a steady decline in its workforce beginning mid this decade, thanks to the One Child Policy.
人口数量在制约中国的发展和经济繁荣方面扮演着至关重要的角色。和日本相似，中国的人口正在步入老龄化。而两者不同之处在于，日本拥有大量超过65岁以上的老人时民众的富裕程度是中国望尘莫及的。依照目前的人口发展趋势，到2040年的时候，中国将会有4亿老年人。跟他们前面几代人相比，他们只有更少的后代来照料他们。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心一份题为《老龄化的中央王国》的报告指出，目前中国平均每个老人有大约6个成人来照顾，而到本世纪中叶，将只会有大约1.6个。由于劳动力缺乏以及政府养老金不足，最终会导致中国的储蓄消耗殆尽，而中国的财富正是建立在这些储蓄的基础之上的。因为独生子女政策的原因，在2015年左右开始中国的劳动力数量将会稳步下降。
The elderly are also major consumers of health care services. The United States is the richest nation on earth, and has positive population growth, but we are still worried about being able to take care of our baby boomers in the future. In today's China, healthcare is at a premium, and many people in the countryside cannot afford any medical treatment-- full stop.
老年人也是医疗保健服务的主要消费人群。美国是地球上最富有的国家，人口也在稳步增长，但我们还是要担心将来是否能够照顾在生育高峰出生的孩子。目前在中国卫生保健是很稀缺昂贵的，很多农村居民无力负担医疗费用。
According to a recent article in Foreign Affairs by Yanzhong Huang, The Sick Man of Asia, China's Health Crisis in 2006 80% of China's health care expenditures were funneled into the treatment of only 8.5 million government officials. Another amazing statistic Huang cites: more than 73% of Chinese hospitals have reported violent incidents between patients and healthcare professionals. Why? Because feelings run high when you are told that your child, your parent or your spouse cannot be given treatment because you cannot pay for it. China is worried about getting both old and sick: by 2040, more Chinese will be suffering from Alzheimer's than the total populations of all the developed nations combined.
最近美国西东大学副教授黄严忠在《外交事务》上发表了一篇题为《亚洲的病人，中国的健康危机》的文章。文中指出，2006年中国80%的医疗保健费用被用于数量仅有850万的政府官员身上。黄教授还引用了另外一个令人惊讶的数据：有超过73%的中国医院发生过医患暴力事件。为什么会这样？因为当你被告知孩子、父母或者配偶因为你无力支付医疗费用而无法得到治疗时，你肯定会气血上涌。
Health care is not the only area of concern. The Chinese government is aware that there is growing resentment of income inequality, the result of the introduction of capitalism and the wholesale abandonment of its social safety net. When I first went to China in 1979, the so-called Gini coefficient, the measurement of income inequality, was low. China was a truly socialist country and all services including housing were provided by the state. China in 2011, nominally and in fact politically still a communist country, has greater income inequality than the US.
医疗保健并不是他们唯一要担心的东西。中国政府还意识到收入不平衡不断激发不满情绪。这是中国采用资本主义但放弃跟其配套的社会保障体系所带来的后果。1979年我第一次去中国的时候，衡量收入差距的基尼系数还很低。那时中国是一个真正实行社会主义的国家，包括住房在内的所有公共服务都由国家提供。而在2011年的中国，这个政治上依然是共产主义但实际上有名无实的国家中，收入不平衡程度比美国还要大。
Someday China's 99% could be a truly potent force. China's leaders are worried about organized protests. There is no Twitter in China, as I recently confirmed with the cofounder of Twitter, Biz Stone. Facebook does not function, and the Internet and all online news is censored. Chinese citizens will increasingly face an asymmetric information gap as they struggle to compete with other large developing countries such as India, which allow the free flow of information. This is not an environment in which innovation can flourish. Try to imagine a Chinese Steve Jobs almost all of the new companies in China today are derivative of US products, services, and business models.Examples of the limits of technological progress in the face of suppression of information can be seen in recent accidents involving China's showcase technology. The bullet train tragedy, the grounding of the new Airbus made in China, and similar events add up to an enormous glitch factor as China attempts to step up the technology ladder to more complex systems. Overheard comment an inspector on the Shanghai's vaunted subway system will not allow his family to use their trains. Whenever there is an atmosphere of fear, bad news does not get reported up the command chain.
有一天中国的99%们将可能成为一直真正强大的力量。中国的领导者们很担心有组织的抗议活动。据我最近跟Twitter的创始人之一Biz Stone确认，中国没有Twitter服务。facebook在那里也无法使用，互联网和所有在线新闻都受到审查。中国民众和其它作为竞争对手的大型发展中国家之间将会有道越来越大的信息不对称鸿沟。这些竞争对手中包括允许信息自由流通的印度。在这种环境中创新精神是无法活跃起来的。想象下中国能否出一个斯蒂夫乔布斯这样的人。在现在的中国，几乎所有新兴公司都在模仿美国的产品、服务和商业模式。信息压制造成了科技进步受限，这从中国最近的展示性科技产品发生的事故中可见一斑。从高速铁路惨剧到中国制造的新型空中客车停飞事件，还有很多类似的事在中国努力迈向更先进更复杂的科技之路上成为了巨大的拦路石。闲谈时偶然听说，上海市吹嘘的地铁系统的一名验收人员不让他的家人乘坐地铁。只要存在恐惧的氛围，坏消息就会被下令封锁。
Other countries are increasingly less willing to share their technology with China for a variety of reasons. Some businesspeople have had bad experiences, either in terms of political pressure (Google) or more commonly, theft of intellectual property. Lack of protection by China's legal system is cited as the number one structural impediment to foreign companies doing business in China. This all goes back to the ideal of creating an atmosphere in which ideas can flourish and R&D spending is rewarded through the stock market and other vehicles, a process that is not taking place in China today.
出于很多原因，其他国家越来越不愿意和中国分享它们的技术。一些企业家遭遇过不好的经历，有些是因为政治压力（譬如谷歌），还有些更常见的是因为有窃取知识产权的现象存在。中国的法律系统对知识产权缺乏保护被称为是阻碍外国公司在中国做生意的最大障碍。理想的情况是营造一种环境，在这种环境里充满着各种各样的想法，研发费用可以通过股市和其他途径得到回报。但是现在的中国不存在这种环境。
Small business, the cradle of job creation everywhere, is at a lending standstill in China. Most small and medium size businesses are forced to go to the black or "informal" lending markets for funding, with interest rates of 20, 30 and 40%. Chinese banks are equipped to funnel loans to the large state-owned businesses, but they do not have credit analysts who can determine whether or not a business should be given a loan on its own merits. The languishing stock market is still dominated by behemoth state-owned enterprises, so when startups need capital, they often turn to foreign investors. In spite of the glut of savings within China's banking system, all of China's major Internet firms raised funds in US stock markets--Sina, Sohu, Alibaba. Lack of access to capital has also resulted in the loss of thousands of Chinese engineers and entrepreneurs who decided to come to the US to start their businesses, to the inestimable gain of Silicon Valley.
在中国，作为工作机会的摇篮的小企业很难贷到钱。大多数中小企业被迫到地下钱庄借钱，利息高达20%、30%甚至40%。中国的银行为大型国企准备资金发放贷款，但它们却没有信用分析师。信用分析师可以分析和判断一个企业是否有资格领取贷款。深陷熊市的中国股市依然被庞大的国有企业占据着，因此当其他企业需要资金的时候，他们通常会转向外国投资者。虽然中国的银行系统中有着过量的存款，但是中国所有的互联网公司都在美国股市筹集资金，譬如新浪，搜狐，阿里巴巴等。获得资金的渠道短缺，也导致了很多中国工程师和企业家流失到美国进行创业，他们期待在硅谷可以获得无法估计的回报。
Another common misperception is that China will overcome the US militarily. First of all, China has no major allies, with the possible exception of Russia, which clearly seeks to protect its own interests first and foremost. The US on the other hand has firm global allies, military bases worldwide, and a navy that girdles the earth. Secondly, in today's world, warfare is all about technology, and in spite of its successes with rockets and satellites, China is still handicapped in this area. Finally, there is the question of political will. China will fight to protect its interests in Taiwan and in Tibet. But other than that, North Korea has proved to be a major albatross, and there is another strong power in the region, Japan, which will do everything it can to check China's military ascendency.
人们还有另外一个错觉就是说中国在军事上将会超过美国。首先，中国没有大的盟友。俄罗斯明显不可能，因为它很明确地表示首先要保护自身的利益。而美国却有着众多稳固的盟友，遍布全世界的军事基地，以及环绕地球的海军。其次，在当今世界，战争都是跟科技挂钩的。虽然中国成功制造了火箭和卫星，但在科技领域中国还是有很大缺陷的。最后还有政治意愿的问题。中国会力争保护它在台湾和西藏的利益。但除此以外，朝鲜已经明显成了一个重大负担，而且在该地区还有一支强大的力量，日本。日本将会尽其所能抑制中国的军事优势。
All of this is not to say that China isn't the greatest success story of our generation. It is a land and a people I love dearly, a civilization whose history and art are unparalleled in many respects. But there is no predetermined place for China to regain on the world stage--history is that simple. When you next read about the "end of America" or China's "inevitable" domination, put on your skeptical spectacles. In spite of the visible, flashy wealth of its modern coastal cities, China is still very much a developing economy on the brink of major changes. Its current system of centralized non-democratic government might be perfect for implementing unpopular choices such as joining the WTO, a decision that was estimated to cost 50 million jobs at the time. The question is whether China has been able to use its wealth it has gained since joining the WTO to create institutions that can bring longer-term stability.
中国的发展史是我们这代人所看到的最伟大的成功史，上面所说的一切都不是在否定这一点。我深爱着它的土地和人民，它的历史和艺术在很多方面都是举世无双的。但是对于中国来说，世界舞台上并没有哪个地方是注定要预留给它的，历史就是这么简单。你下次再读到诸如“美国的终结”或者“中国注定统治世界”这样的标题，那么请戴上你怀疑的眼镜。除了中国东部沿海城市显而易见而又浮华的财富之外，中国还只是一个处于大改变边缘的发展中国家。中国目前的中央集权非民主政府体制也许在执行诸如加入WTO这样的不受欢迎的选择方面比较完美，当时这个决定预计会付出5000万工作机会的代价。问题就在于中国能否利用加入WTO后获取的财富来创造能够带来长久稳定的制度。
As China is transitioning to become a full member of the world community from which it was entirely separated just forty years ago, we have perhaps seen the end of Chinese rather than American exceptionalism. The characteristics that allowed China to make enormous progress to date are not necessarily the qualities that will be needed to create productive global integration going forward. China is already our greatest commercial partner, and the US should do everything it can to encourage China's engagement, including eschewing trade barriers of all kinds. Overly optimistic misinformation about the realities China faces can lead to poor decision-making by our own government officials. The bottom line is that we should not fear a strong China. Rather, we should fear a weak China.
随着中国越来越融入这个40年前被完全隔离的世界大家庭，也许我们看到的更多是中国例外论的结束，而不是美国例外论的结束。让中国到此为止取得巨大进步的特性并不等于创造建设性的全球整合所需要的品质。中国已经是我们最大的商业伙伴，美国必须尽其所能地鼓励中国实践约定，譬如扫除各种贸易壁垒。对中国面临的现实做出过度乐观的错误判断的话，我们的政府官员会做出不恰当的决定。我们的底线就是不应该害怕强大的中国。相反，我们应该害怕弱小的中国。
What are the steps China should take? It should implement a path to full convertibility of its currency and open capital accounts, end financial repression, promote income equality and access to social services, allow the free flow of capital and information across and within its borders, promote freedom of expression-- all these changes and more need to be executed carefully and with all deliberate speed. With a leadership transition looming, the Chinese ship of state now requires a captain who recognizes that China's future depends on integration rather than exceptionalism.
中国应该采取哪些步骤呢？应该允许货币自由兑换、开启资本账户、终止金融压制、减小收入差距、放开社会服务业、允许资金和信息在其国境内自由流通、推进言论自由。所有这些都需要循序渐进地仔细执行。领导人换届在即，中国这艘大船需要一位可以认清中国的未来要靠全球整合而不是例外主义的船长。
I believe that being China's leader at this time in history just might be the toughest job on earth.
我相信，在这个历史时期当一名中国的领导人可能是世上最棘手的工作了。
狗仔卡
楼主
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2011-11-11 19:01
