【中文标题】衰退观察：我们可以舍弃台湾救美国吗？
【原文标题】Decline Watch：Can we save America by ditching Taiwan?
【登载媒体】Foreign Policy
【来源地址】
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/11/decline_watch_can_we_save_america_by_ditching_taiwan
【译 者】baby60
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3238036-1-1.html
【译 文】
The New York Times has a verystrange op-ed today from Paul V. Kane, a former international security fellowat the Harvard Kennedy School. The piece makes the case that the U.S. shouldtrade Taiwan to China for a deal on debt. Here's the argument: 纽约时报今天发表了一篇非常奇怪的评论文章，其原作者是PaulV. Kane，他曾是哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院的一名负责国际安全的工作人员。这篇文章提出事实证明美国应将台湾交还给中国作为解决其债务问题的交易手段。 There are dozens of initiativesPresident Obama could undertake to strengthen our economic security.Here is one: He should enter into closed-doornegotiations with Chinese leaders to write off the $1.14 trillion ofAmerican debt currently held by China in exchange for a deal to endAmerican military assistance and arms sales to Taiwan and terminatethe current United States-Taiwan defense arrangement by 2015. 为了加强我国的经济安全，总统奥巴马有很多行动方案可以采纳。有一个便是： 他可以和中国领导人进行闭门谈判，以减少美国对台的军事援助和武器销售以及至2015年停止目前的美国对台的国防安排为交换，抵消中国政府持有的1.14万亿美元的美国国债。 This would be a most precious prizeto the cautious men in Beijing, one they would give dearly to achieve.After all, our relationship with Taiwan, as revised in 1979, is a vestige ofthe cold war. 对于身在北京的那些谨慎的领导人们来说，这会是一个非常珍贵的礼物，他们一定会非常愿意去交换。毕竟我们与台湾的关系，如1979年的约定，是那场冷战遗留的产物了。 Kaneargues that with this one bold stroke, Obama can "correct the country’scourse, help assure his re-election, and preserve our children’s future."It could also "pressure Beijing to end its political and economic supportfor pariah states like Iran, North Korea and Syria and to exert a moderatinginfluence over an unstable Pakistan." Kane认为，通过采取这种果敢的措施，奥巴马可以修正美国的发展进程，帮助确保他下次选举的连任，并且保护我们孩子的未来。它同样可以对北京施压，使其结束对伊朗、北韩和叙利亚等劣等国家的政、经支持，并安抚目前不太稳定的巴基斯坦。
Decline-o-meter: Givingthis a two for the fact that we've gotten to the point where a suggestion likethis is being featured on a prominent op-ed page. I'm all for counter-intuitivethinking, and intelligent people can disagree on the wisdom of the current U.S.Taiwan policy, but like most magic bullet solutions to major internationalcrises, this makes absolutely no sense.
表中从5到2指出这样一个事实：我们已经到了需要在特稿专页突出这个建议的关键点。我支持反过来去思考，有智慧的人也不会同意现在美国的对台政策，但是就像大多数解决国际危机的魔术子弹方案一样，这个方案显然也是无意义的。 1.Whywould China take this deal? According to the figures Kane himself cites,Beijing will spend around $500 billion over the next decade on Taiwan-relateddefense spending. So a $1.14 trillion debt write-off isn't really a bargain.Obviously Taiwan is a major priority for Beijing. But its trade relationshipand relative economic position with the U.S. is a much, much biggerone. 1.为什么中国会接受这个交易呢？根据Kane自己的数据显示，中国政府下个十年将会拿出大概5000亿美元作为解决台湾问题的国防开支。因此1.14万亿美元债务冲销并没有给中国政府实在的优惠。解决台湾问题显然是中国政府的首要任务，但比起这个任务，与美国的贸易关系以及在相关环境里的经济地位才是更加、更加重要的。 2.U.S. debt is approaching $15 trillion. Lowering that to $14 trillion isn'tgoing to "save our economy". And I can't imagine a write-off on thescale doing wonders for the U.S. credit rating. 2美国的国债有15万亿美元，即使减少到14万亿也不见得会拯救我们的经济。并且我并不认为这种规模的抵消会为国的信用评级创造什么奇迹。 3How exactly will this help Obama's reelection chances? I've always thought theargument that Obama is "selling out" U.S. allies was overblown, butit would be a bit hard to refute if he literallysold a U.S. ally. 3.这确实能帮助奥巴马在改选中连任吗？我一直为认为“奥巴马卖光了美国盟友”这种观点有些夸张了，但也确实很难驳斥如果他真的卖掉一个美国盟友。 4Even if this deal magically resolved the Taiwan situation, what does that haveto do with Iran, North Korea, Syria, or Pakistan -- countries where China hascompletely different interests at stake? If anything, ittakes a bargaining chip off the table.
Flawed as it is, the idea got me thinking. Canada holds about $90billion in U.S. debt. Maybe they'd take a Dakota ortwo for it. 4.即使这个交易神奇般的解决了台湾问题，那么伊朗、朝鲜、叙利亚、或者巴基斯坦问题我们如何做？这些国家对中国来说有着完全不同的利益所在。如果说有，那就是都是谈判桌上的筹码。 基于上述缺陷，这个观点让我想到，加拿大持有900亿美元的美国国债，难道可以拿走一个或者两个达科他？
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发表于 2011-11-14 16:05
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