【中文标题】中国为什么不高兴
【原文标题】Why China Is Unhappy
【登载媒体】华尔街日报
【来源地址】http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204224604577029550570114554.html
【译者】boballenlin
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处bbs.m4.cn
【译文】
Ifeconomic growth is supposed to enhance people's welfare and thereforesatisfaction, China in 2011 is a conundrum. The economy is on track to growmore than 9%, yet this has been a year of rising discontent.
如果说经济增长是为了让人民福利得到提高从而提升满足感的话，2011年中国的经济状况却令人难堪。9%的经济增长率显示出经济发展已经走上正轨，然而这一年中，不满情绪却不断增强。
Onthe Chinese equivalents of Twitter, criticism of the government is exploding,despite fierce censorship. A recent poll by Tsinghua University and themagazine Xiaokang found that 40% of Chinese are unhappy with their lives, whileanother survey by the magazine Outlook and Peoples University found 70% offarmers dissatisfied, mainly because of land seizures. Some 60% of the rich areemigrating or considering doing so, according to a survey by the Hurun Reportand the Bank of China. Even the People's Daily warned last week that there is a"crisis of confidence" in government.
在中国大陆，尽管有及其严格的审查制度，在与推特类似的舆论平台上有关批判政府的内容却有迅猛增加之势。近期，一份由清华大学和《小康》杂志开展的民意调查显示，40%的中国人对他们的生活现况存在不满；于此同时，另一份由央视希望英语杂志和中国人民大学得出的调查结果显示，这样的情绪存在于70%的农民群体中，而产生这样不满情绪的主要原因是强征土地。另外，在一份《胡润百富》和中国银行联手进行的调查中提到，60%的富人已经或者正在规划着移居海外。就连《人民日报》也在上个星期发出警示：政府正在面临“信任危机”。 *** David Klein
Thecrisis is real, but the Party mouthpiece didn't quite get it right. Chineselost faith in local-level officials a long time ago, but until recently theycontinued to believe in their national-level leaders. They also largelyaccepted the post-1989 social contract in which the Party provided rising livingstandards in return for not questioning its monopoly on power. That's why theParty could survive 180,000 "mass incidents" of protest last year, asestimated by researcher Sun Liping of Tsinghua, without a serious crisis.
危机的确存在，但中共喉舌所言并不全然确切。中国人早在一段时间以前就已经不在信任地方官员，但是他们仍对中央领导人抱有信心——至少在不久以前仍是如此。而且，他们广泛认同“后1989社会契约”，即中共保证生活标准不断提高，而公众换以回报的是不质疑共产党的一党专政。清华学者孙丽平（音）指出，这就是为什么去年中共能够挺过多达十八万次次针对质量问题的抗议，而没有在实际意义上面临重大危机。
Thisis changing as a result of two trends. The first is a growing awareness amongthe bottom strata of society that it is policy made at higher levels, not justthe incompetence or corruption of local officials, that is responsible fortheir woes. The second is the interest of the wealthy and the intellectuals inreform after two decades of being bought off by the Communist Party.
然而现况因为两种潮流正在改变。第一，越来越多生活在社会底层的群众逐渐认识到，他们的生活之所以这样的穷困潦倒，不仅仅是因为地方官员的无能或者腐败，更大程度上，是中央高层的决策使然。其二，富有者和知识分子，在被中共收买了二十年之后，他们的利益已经发生了改变。
Thefirst trend is typified by the willingness of about 100 people across thecountry to risk their freedom and put themselves forward as independentcandidates in elections for local People's Congresses. Some are professionals,but most seem to be ordinary workers. These government bodies havetraditionally rubber-stamped Party decisions, but their members theoreticallyhave the power to supervise officials. Hence those officials have taken thechallenge seriously, threatening and harassing the candidates or even illegallydisqualifying them.
第一种潮流的典型代表，是那些约100名作为独立候选人参选当地人大的普通百姓，他们自发前往，一路跋山涉水，甘愿以自由作为赌注。他们其中不乏专业人士，但更多的是普通工人。人大一直以来就对党的决策不假思索即予批准，然而按道理来说，人大代表拥有监督政府官员的权利，因此地方官员对于这一事件极度重视，威胁、骚扰这些“独立候选人”甚至非法地取消他们的资格。
Most Chinese are unlikely to be asbold as the independent activists unless they are mobilized from above, whichis why the second trend is so significant. The Party's hold on power since 1989has hinged on its ability to co-opt the educated minority, which it has done byoffering material benefits as well as an argument that democracy would lead tothe uneducated masses destroying their privileges. That worked well untilrecently.
大多数中国人都不会倾向于大胆到做出格的激进主义者，除非他们被“上头”动员起来，这就是为什么第二种潮流意义重大。中共在1989年之后的牢固掌权，很大程度上取决于它拉拢了受教育的少数人群，给予了他们物质上的利益，同时指出，一旦民主得以实现，那些为受教育的群体就会夺取他们现在拥有的特权。直到不久之前，这一举措收效显著。
Disillusionmentwith this deal is driving an increase in activism online and in the real world.Beijing intellectuals are making pilgrimages to the remote Shandong town ofLinyi where blind legal activist Chen Guangcheng is under house arrest.Likewise, since the tax authorities last week presented the dissident artist AiWeiwei with a $2.4 million bill for fines and back taxes, a movement has sprungup to donate money, both electronically and in the form of paper airplanesdelivered to his house, to keep him out of prison. In recent days anger overthe government's concealment of air pollution levels, even as the leaders inZhongnanhai install air purifiers to protect their own health, has spawnedanother ad hoc campaign.
知识分子从这一交易中醒悟过来，刺激了网络与现实世界中激进主义的增长。身在北京的知识分子前往偏远的山东小镇临沂“朝觐”被软禁的盲人维权者陈光诚。类似地，上个星期税务机关公布了持不同政见者、艺术家艾未未的情况，指控他背负240万美元的罚款和漏税。在此之后，兴起了一项为艾未未捐款的运动，汇款单——电子的和纸质的，不断地送到他的住处，以免除他的牢狱之灾。这些天，政府隐瞒空气质量等级的行为再次引发了一场专门针对此的运动，事实上，中南海领导人都已经安装了空气净化器以保证健康。
Whatseems to have turned the tide toward political activism is a realization thatunless one is a member of the Party elite, upward mobility is limited and anyadvancement one manages to gain after hard work can be taken away without dueprocess. Since the universities expanded enrollments in the early 2000s, manyfamilies have borrowed heavily to pay tuition for their children. But graduateswithout political connections have trouble getting on the career ladder, endingup joining the "ant tribe," slang for educated young people living inslums. Meanwhile, the children of the Party and business elites arestreet-racing their Ferraris without fear of arrest.
让这一潮流发展成为政治行为的原因似乎是一种顿悟，即除非身为党员中坚分子的一员，向上发展的机会十分受局限，甚至一个人在辛苦努力后得到的成果可能被无故窃取。中国大学在二十一世纪初扩招，导致许多家庭举重债供养孩子上学付学费，然而没有政治背景的毕业生在找工作、试图升职的时候却常常碰壁，最终成为“蚁族”一员。（指受高等教育的年轻人却住在贫民区。）相比之下，“官二代”“富二代”们却可以在城市街道上开着法拉利等名车狂飙，丝毫不用担心被捕。
Faithin the competence of the central government is also declining because of a lackof accountability. After the July crash of two trains in Wenzhou, the mediaexposed problems in the trophy high-speed rail program. Despite publiccriticism, the Railways Ministry continues to receive massive amounts of newcapital to finance the railway lines that probably can't recoup the investment.New parents are obsessed with obtaining imported baby formula because theydon't trust domestic brands.
对中央政府能力的信任度下滑同时还源自于政府责任感的缺失。在“7·23”温州两动车追尾事故之后，高铁系统——曾经作为一种荣耀的象征——其中的种种问题被媒体揭露出来。在公众舆论的批评下，铁道部依然可以得到大笔的资金投资铁道线路，虽然它们可能无法收回成本。新生儿父母更倾向于购买进口的婴儿奶粉，因为他们认为国产品牌不值得信任。
State-ownedindustries increasingly prosper at the expense of private companies andhouseholds. In order to tackle high inflation the central bank tightenedcredit, but state companies continue to get bank loans while entrepreneurs aregoing bankrupt. Property developers are being forced to sell inventory to stayafloat, so the price of real estate, one of the main stores of savings for therich, is falling nationally, destroying wealth.
相比之下，国有企业不断的发展却是以牺牲私营企业和家庭作坊为代价。中央银行为了扭转通胀形式不断收紧贷款，导致了大批民营企业家破产，与此同时国有企业却能不断地从银行贷到款。房地产开发商为了顺利运营下去，不得不销售已有楼盘，使得房价全国性下跌。不动产本身作为富有群体主要的财产形式，这样的状况无疑对他们是个毁灭性打击。
Thathas important knock-on effects. Local governments, which borrowed heavily tobuild infrastructure and depended on land sales for much of their budgets, noware scrambling to raise tax revenue, which is growing at almost three times therate of GDP. These taxes further increase discontent, as shown by the riots twoweeks ago in the city of Huzhou in Zhejiang province, where capitalists andproletarians went to the barricades arm-in-arm to protest against CommunistParty exploitation.
这导致了一系列的连锁反应。地方政府过去习惯于发放大量债券，同时依靠出售土地来满足他们大部分的财政预算，而现在，他们则不得不增加税收——甚至逼近GDP增长率的三倍——来挣扎。高税收加深了人民的不满，两周前，在浙江湖州，资本家和无产者一起走上街头结成路障发动行走，抗议中共的剥削。
Soit's hardly surprising that for the first time in years, capital is starting toflow out of the country. This reflects the judgment of many Chinese thatopportunities to invest are scarce and the economy faces tough times ahead.Some also worry about political upheaval and so are keeping part of their nesteggs abroad.
所以说，这些年来首次出现的大笔资产流向海外丝毫不足为怪。这反映出，在许多国人的判断中，投资的契机已经十分罕有，而且经济已经面临着一段难熬的时期。有些人还担心政治环境会经历一个大动荡，为了趋避风险，他们更倾向于将资金投向海外。 *** The government response to all thisunhappiness has been to increase the resources and powers of the domesticsecurity apparatus. This year the budget for security surpassed that of themilitary for the first time, and disappearances of dissidents have becomecommonplace. Instead of cowing the population, this is only creating moreinstances of official abuse that are publicized on the Internet, leading togreater anger and defiance.
中共政府对不满情绪高涨的反应则是不断加大对国内公安系统的投入，并赋予它更大的权力。今年，国家内部安全的预算首次超过了军队防务，同时，持不同政见者的失踪事件越来越频繁。与恐吓群众相比，这样滥用职权的行为被网民公之于众之后，反而引来公众更大的愤怒和非议。
Alarmbells should be ringing. The virtuous cycle of social stability and materialprogress that has persisted for two decades has gone into reverse. This neednot lead to disaster, as long as the Communist Party recognizes its mistakesand responds to the public desire for the rule of law and curbs on the power ofthe state. Otherwise there is more unhappiness ahead.
形势已经不容乐观。社会稳定和物质环境发展之间的良性循环已经持续了二十年，现在去开始走向另一面。只有中共承认错误，并且积极回应公众对于完善法治体系和限制政府权利的要求，灾难性事件才不会发生，否则，更强烈的不满情绪将不可避免。
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