【华尔街日报11.21】改善美中关系 要胡萝卜还是大棒？

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Forging a Stronger U.S.-China Relationship: More Carrot Than Stick

By ANDREW BROWNE原文链接：http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203699404577042461293566448.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

                                                                                                                Ralph Alswang for The Wall Street Journal               

'We have to be patient, take a step-by-step approach': Douglas DeVos, left, with Jack Ma and Gail Kelly

            


The U.S.-China relationship is widely recognized as the most important bilateral relationship in the world, but it is fraught with imbalances and tensions.  The Wall Street Journal's Andrew Browne moderated a task-force discussion  aimed at strengthening the working relationship between the world's largest debtor and its largest creditor.
Here are edited excerpts of that conversation:
A Gentle Approach                                    ANDREW BROWNE: As reporters in China, we are well used to horror stories from foreign businesses operating in the world's second-largest economy. Intellectual-property theft is the No. 1 complaint. Not just that, but forced technology transfer, a lack of access to the judicial system, corruption and so on.                            
                Journal Report
                    FORGING A STRONGER U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP CO-CHAIRS               
                                    Jack Ma, Chairman, Alibaba Group               
                                    Gail Kelly, CEO and Managing Director, Westpac Banking Corp.               
                                    Douglas DeVos, President and Co-CEO, Amway Corp.               
                                    SUBJECT EXPERT               
                                    Lawrence H. Summers,                     Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and President Emeritus of Harvard University                
                           

                Our group didn't exactly ignore these problems. Nevertheless, I think it's fair to say that we were quite gentle on China. It was very high-level. It was a lot of discussion about win-win solutions—about collaboration, about learning.            
                The top policy takeaway was that we needed to establish a greater platform of trust.            
                                    DOUGLAS DEVOS: This was based on the world-view perspective that subject expert Larry Summers set out: Either we're going to have tit-for-tat discussions on very short-term issues every time something pops up or we're going to form a long-term harmonious relationship. And the group said we want to go toward the latter.
So we felt the first thing that was needed was a strategic framework. The term "bilateral investment treaty" was brought up, but that's not exactly it. Economic cooperation agreement, perhaps that sort of thing. Something between our two nations, because the World Trade Organization relationship, merely being members of another global organization, isn't the right spot for us to go through issues that are going to be long term and challenging.
The feeling was that there would be some principles that would need to be part of this relationship or agreement, principles that were going to be long term, that were going to go from administration to administration. There need to be dispute-resolution processes contained within it so disputes can get addressed quickly.
We have to be patient, take a step-by-step approach. We're not going to fix everything tomorrow. It has to be rules-based. We have to get to a point where we write it down on paper so we can have discussions about what's written rather than what we thought we heard somebody say.
And then it needs to be actionable. You see in the third recommendation, where we wanted to set targets. We have to be able to follow up, and measure ourselves, if we're going to make step-by-step progress.
                                     JACK MA: My topic is about how the U.S. should attract more Chinese investment. The U.S. should also try to attract a lot of Chinese entrepreneurs with China's characteristics—they move faster and create jobs in tough situations.
                The Top Four Recommendations                                    1. NEW FRAMEWORK FOR BUILDING TRUST               
                Establish a strategic framework for building trust through an economic-cooperation agreement. Pursue a rules-based, long-term arrangement to address interests in business, education and culture.
                                                    2. BUILD AN INVESTOR-FRIENDLY APPROACH               
                Establish a full-service agency to draw investment to the U.S., creating procedures to help foreign investors navigate the U.S. public and private sectors. The U.S. should study China's investor-friendly approach to attracting capital. The private sector would work closely with governments on practical on-the-ground issues.
                                                    3. SET TARGET FOR FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FROM CHINA               
                Establish a target for $250 billion annually in foreign direct investment in the U.S. from China.
                                                    4. STRESS RECIPROCAL SUCCESS               
                The U.S. should welcome investment from China, but stress the importance of reciprocity for U.S. companies to emphasize the potential for mutual success. Industry-specific working groups could maintain pressure to ensure changes in both countries. China should expand domestic consumption further to provide a market for U.S. goods. All of this would help defuse short-term tensions around currency valuation, trade access and intellectual-property violations.
            

When you go to China, you have the same problems with China's government, with China's environment. And the Chinese companies coming to the U.S also have problems. Many private businesses come to the U.S., like I do, and don't know how to deal with the tax issues, policy issues, and what we should do.
So there should be an organization like the Economic Development Board, which helps all the foreign investors who come to Singapore. China also has a very strong organization helping all the foreign investors who come to China. What we suggest is that the U.S. have such an organization to facilitate foreign investors coming to the U.S.
A Win-Win Relationship                                     GAIL KELLY: The fourth one was around the theme of reciprocity. We discussed that against the framework that Jack outlined a little while ago of building a relationship of trust. So we used the idea of carrots and sticks to start with. But we decided to refine that.
Against this backdrop of building a relationship of trust, we chose to use words such as "win-win" instead. And at the heart of this is both sides recognizing it requires patience. It requires seeking to understand the other's point of view. And certainly a key component of this reciprocity is recognizing that each country being strong is good for the other. In particular, driving a strong consumption-based economy within China, the strengthening of the middle class, driving for more goods and services, is good for the U.S. in terms of its manufacturing and in terms of job creation in the U.S.
The key element of a recommendation out of this reciprocity goes to building out specific industry working groups. There was a view that only so much can get done at the government-to-government level. But as we all know, businesses are more outcome-focused and more practical and pragmatic often in the way in which they tackle issues.
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20111121/bus111446.asp?source=whatnews2
改善美中关系  要胡萝卜还是大棒？


                               

Ralph Alswang for The Wall Street Journal

参加本次专题讨论会的道格拉斯•德沃斯（左）、马云（中）和盖尔•凯利（右）。德沃斯说：我们需要有耐心，要一步一步地走。


美
中关系被普遍视为世界上最重要的双边关系，但它充满了各种失衡与矛盾。《华尔街日报》的班安祖(Andrew Browne)主持了一场专题讨论会，谈怎样加强世界最大债务国与最大债权国之间的工作关系。

马云(Jack Ma)，阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group)董事长

盖尔•凯利(Gail Kelly)，西太平洋银行(Westpac Banking Corp.)CEO兼董事总经理

道格拉斯•德沃斯(Douglas DeVos)，安利(Amway Corp.)董事长兼联席CEO

以下是经过编辑的谈话摘录：

平和方针

班安祖：作为驻华记者，我们对于在华外企所讲的惊悚故事早已司空见怪。知识产权盗窃是第一大抱怨。除此以外还有强制性技术转移，司法系统大门紧闭，以及腐败问题等等。

严格地讲，我们团队并没有忽视这些问题。但我认为可以这么说，我们对中国的报道是相当平和的。我们高屋建瓴，不厌其烦地探讨双赢的解决办法，比如合作，比如学习。

其中最大的政策启发在于，我们需要建立一个更大的信任平台。


德沃斯：这是基于行家拉里•萨默斯(Larry Summers)开创的一种世界观视角：要么我们在每逢有事情出现的时候就针对一些非常短期的问题展开针锋相对的讨论，要么我们发展一种长远的、和谐的关系。而你们团队说，要选择后面一种。

所以我们觉得首先需要建立一种战略框架。“双边投资条约”这个术语是提出来了，但不完全准确。或许应该是“经济合作协议”之类的东西。应该是我们两个国家之间的某种东西，因为世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)或另外某个国际组织本身都不适合我们用于解决富有挑战性的长远问题。

感觉这种关系或协议当中需要包括某些原则，这些原则将是长远的，从一届政府到下一届政府都不会改变。其中应当有争端解决程序，以便能够迅速解决争端。

我们需要有耐心，要一步一步地走。我们不会明天就解决所有问题。必须要根据规则来解决问题。我们需要东西记在纸上，这样就能够讨论白纸黑字的东西，而不是我们道听途说的东西。

然后纸面上的东西还需要能够付诸行动。你看第三条建议，也就是设定目标。如果我们要一步一步地取得进展的话，就需要能够行动，能够量度。

马云：我要讨论的是美国应当怎样吸引中国的更多投资。美国还应该吸引很多具有中国特色的中国企业家──他们行动更快，严酷环境中也能创造就业。

当你到中国时，面对中国的环境以及在和中国政府打交道时你会碰到同样的问题。进入美国市场的中国企业也有问题。许多进入美国市场的民营企业，比如像我们，不知道如何处理税收问题、政策问题，也不清楚我们该做什么。

所以应该设立一个类似新加坡经济发展局（Economic Development Board）那样的组织。经济发展局能够帮助所有进入新加坡的外国投资者。中国也有一个非常强大的组织，能够帮助所有来华的外国投资者。我们的建议是，美国应该设立类似组织，以方便到美国的外国投资者。

双赢关系

凯利：第四个问题与互惠互利有关。我们是在建立信任关系的框架下谈论这一问题的。马云刚才也大致讲了一下。我们用胡萝卜加大棒的理念开始这一话题，但我们决定改进这一理念。

在构筑信任关系的的大背景下，我们选择使用“双赢”等字眼。此事的核心是双方认识到这需要耐心。需要一方试图理解另一方的观点。当然这种互惠关系的一个重要组成是认识到每个国家的强大对另一方有利。具体来说，中国在国内倡导一个以消费为基础的强大经济，促进中产阶级的强大并推进更多商品和服务的消费对美国有利，因为这能促进美国制造业的发展并给美国创造就业机会。

从这种互惠关系引申出的建议中有一点特别值得关注，这就是设立特定行业工作组。有一种观点认为，政府层面能够促成的结果并不多。我们都知道，企业更注重结果，他们解决问题的方式也更为实际、务实。

四大建议

1.构筑信任的全新框架

通过经济合作协议建立一个构筑信任的战略框架。追求一个以规则为基础的长期安排，以解决商业、教育和文化中的利益问题。

2.构筑一个方便投资者的途径

建立一个完整的服务机构以吸引外界对美国的投资；设计相关流程以帮助外国投资者更好地在美国公共和私营部门间摆渡；美国应该学习中国方便投资者的做法，以吸引资本。私营部门应该在更多实际问题上和政府紧密合作。

3.为源自中国的直接投资量设定一个目标

美国应为每年从中国吸引的直接投资设定2, 500亿美元的目标。

4.强调双赢才会成功

美国应该欢迎来自中国的投资，但必须强调互惠互利对美国企业的重要性，以凸显双赢的可能性。特定行业工作组可以持续施压，以确保中美两国的变革。中国应该进一步促进国内消费，以便为美国商品提供市场。所有这一切将有助于化解汇率争议、贸易准入以及侵犯知识产权等问题引发的短期紧张局势。

ANDREW BROWNE