本帖最后由 小明啊 于 2011-11-22 15:53 编辑
【中文标题】中国零售业紧盯龙宝宝出生潮
【原文标题】
China Investors Seeing a Boom Rush Into Baby Care for Dragon Year: Retail【登载媒体】彭博社
【来源地址】http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-20/china-sees-baby-care-boom-for-year-of-dragon.html#【译 者】 小明啊
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
一个中国宝宝在北京超市售卖的奶粉旁边玩耍
【译 文】
China’s emerging baby boom, driven by more-relaxed government policies and the year of the dragon, is fertile ground for both domestic and overseas companies. The world’s second-largest economy will experience a population boom from 2005 to 2020 and the country’s birth rate will reach its peak in 2016, the National Bureau of Statistics predicts. The Chinese population is expected to reach 1.388 billion by 2020 from 1.334 billion in 2009, according to the United Nations. 因为日益宽松的政府生育政策，和龙年的到来，明年的中国将有一股婴儿出生潮。而这将为国内和海外的公司提供肥沃的市场空间。 国家统计局预测，从2005年开始到2020年，中国这个全球第二大经济体将会经历一个人口激增，其人口出生率将在2016年达到高峰。而根据联合国的预测，中国的人口将会在2020年从2009年的13.34亿上升到13.88亿。 Many families are also likely to want their children born in 2012, the year of the dragon. Five percent more babies are born in a dragon year because the icon of China’s emperors symbolizes power and wealth, said Cheung Tak Hong, who runs the obstetrics and gynecology department at the Prince of Wales Hospital in Hong Kong. “The baby boom is a good investment idea in the near term,” said Jessie Guo, Jefferies Group Inc.’s Hong Kong-based head for consumer research in Asia. “The growth is likely to sustain for the next two to three years.” The boom is expected to increase sales of formula companies such as Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial (600887) Group Co., diaper maker Hengan International Group Co. and Prince Frog International Holdings Ltd., a maker of toiletries for children. 很多家庭希望他们的宝宝在龙年出生，也就是2012年。在龙年的婴儿出生率会提高5%，因为这个生肖代表着皇权和财富，洪常德（音译）介绍，他在香港威尔士王子医院开设一个妇产科门诊。 “这次婴儿潮是近期的一个好的投资机会,”Jessie Guo说，Jefferies集团公司总部设在香港，是做亚洲消费研究业务的。“而这种婴儿消费趋势则会在今后的两三年中继续保持增长。” 生育潮会增加一系列相关快消行业的销售量，比如说伊利奶业集团，纸尿裤制造商恒安集团，玩具制造商青蛙集团等等。 Sure Thing 事实 Investors who sold Chinese dairy companies after tainted formula killed at least six infants three years ago are buying again. Yili dropped 67 percent in 2008 in Shanghai trading after it was identified among 22 companies that sold products containing melamine. The stock of China’s top publicly traded baby formula maker has jumped more than fivefold since then, and 21 out of 22 analysts tracked by Bloomberg who cover the stock predict it will continue to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index has gained 33 percent since the end of 2008.
“The dragon year baby boom is almost a sure thing, which will boost the demand for infant products such as baby formula, diapers and clothes,” said Michele Mak, a consumer-sector analyst at BNP Paribas.
China introduced a one-child policy in 1979 to curb population growth and drive prosperity. Now, facing an aging labor force, the government has eased restrictions by allowing couples who are both only children to have two kids of their own. In addition, rural couples whose first child is a girl over four years old are allowed a second child. 三年前一家出售污染奶，导致至少6名婴儿死亡的奶业公司，又被投资者收购了。 在22家公司出售的产品含有三聚氰胺的消息被确认后，2008年伊利在上交会的成交额减少了67%，而自那时起婴儿奶粉制造商的股价则一下子上升五倍，彭博社的财经分析师则认为这种增长趋势还会延续，自2008年年底上证综合指数已经升值33%。 “龙年会造成婴儿潮，这是肯定的，这将会促进婴儿用品产业的发展，如婴儿奶粉，尿不湿，衣服等，”富通银行客户部的分析师 Michele Mak说道。 中国在1979年推出了一个控制人口增长的计划生育政策。现在，面对劳动力老龄化现状吗，政府放宽了政策，允许双方都是独生子女的夫妇可以生二胎。此外，农村家庭若第一胎是女孩，并且大于4岁的，也可以要第二个孩子。 北京的一所幼儿园在进行防火演习
Disposable Income 收入增高促进婴儿潮经济 As incomes rise, Chinese parents have more money to spend on their children. Per-capita disposable income for households in towns and cities rose 8 percent to 19,109 yuan last year, almost doubling from five years ago. China’s baby-food market will grow about 22 percent to more than 68 billion yuan ($11 billion) in 2011 and will almost double to 136 billion yuan by 2015, researcher Euromonitor International estimates. Baby food and pediatric supplement maker Biostime International Holdings Ltd. (1112) has gained 1.3% percent in Hong Kong trading this year.
The baby boom is also likely to “provide a good boost in sales” for Prince Frog and for children’s clothing retailer Boshiwa International Holding Ltd. (1698), said Ray Sze, director at Tianda Securities. “The companies are cheap right now.” Prince Frog is trading at 8.2 times expected earnings and Boshiwa is at a multiple of 9.1 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) is at 10 times expected earnings. Boshiwa expects sales orders to rise 40 percent to 50 percent in 2012 on rising birth rates and a robust economy, it said last month.
As more children are born, diaper maker Hengan is also “well positioned to monetize on the baby boom,” said Dawei Feng, a Hong Kong-based analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. Diaper sales will grow from 24.3 billion yuan in 2011 to 28.4 billion yuan in 2012, Euromonitor estimates. 随着收入的增高，中国的父母们也把越来越多的金钱投入到自己孩子们的身上。去年，家庭人均可支配收入在城镇和城市增长了8%，也就是19109元，几乎是过去五年的两倍。 欧洲商情市场调研公司研究表明，中国的婴儿食品市场将会在2011年增长22%,转换成数字也就是680亿元（折合110亿美元），更会在这个基础上于2015年翻倍至1360亿元。婴儿食品和营养保健品制造商合生元国际集团有限公司（1112），今年的股价已上扬1.3%。 婴儿潮也为以青蛙王子和博士娃为代表的儿童服饰零售商提供了好的刺激。天达证券主管Ray Sze说道，“这些公司的股票现在还处于低位，”青蛙王子是预期的盈利交易的8.2倍，而博士娃是在恒生指数上看则有望突破十倍。 博士娃上个月宣称，高出生率和强劲的经济将会在2012年给他们带来40%到50%的订单增长。 越来越多的婴儿出生，纸尿裤制造商恒安集团也可以趁婴儿潮取得有利地位，里昂证券亚太市场的香港分析师冯大伟说道。欧洲商情市场调研公司（欧睿）估计，尿布的销售将会在2012年从2011年的243亿元增长到284亿元。 ‘Less Trustworthy’ 信任度欠缺 Still, Chinese makers of formula and other baby products face tough competition because consumers continue to view local brands “as less trustworthy,” said James Roy, a consultant at China Market Research Group. “For those who can afford, they will definitely go for imported foreign brands.” Overseas companies dominate in sectors such as baby food. For infant formula, overseas market share, according to data from Euromonitor. Mead Johnson had the biggest market share for infant formula in China last year with 11.7 percent, followed by France’s Danone at 9.8 percent, the data show. Closely held Hangzhou Beingmate Group Co. had 9.2 percent and Yili 7.9 percent.
但是中国的婴儿奶粉制造商和其他婴幼儿产品制造商还在进行激烈的竞争，因为消费者对国产品牌十分不信任， 中国市场研究小组的顾问James Roy说道。“只要能负担得起，父母们还是会选择进口品牌。” 欧睿分析，海外公司的婴儿食品的主要市场部分就是婴儿配方奶粉。 数据显示，美赞臣则占有中国市场婴儿配方奶粉的最大一块蛋糕，多达11.7%，紧随其后的是法国达能，占9.8%。而中国国产品牌杭州贝因美和伊利则分别占9.2%和7.9%。 ‘Guarantee of Safety’ 安全保障 Glenview, Illinois-based Mead Johnson’s sales network covers 250 cities across China, with 50 added this year and a further 50 to be added in 2012, according to the company’s website. Chief Executive Officer Stephen Golsby, in an October earnings call, cited the growing number of children born into middle-class families in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, which the company entered almost 20 years ago. Mead Johnson made 23.7 percent of last year’s $3.1 billion sales in China, compared with 15.3 percent in 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
At a Shanghai Carrefour, shopper George Zhai bought a 400- gram pack of Wyeth’s Promil Gold baby formula for 92 yuan.
美赞臣的销售网络已经遍及中国的250个城市，而根据公司官网的公布，今年又增加了50个城市，明年还会再增加50个零售点。首席执行官Stephen Golsby，在十月份初声称，越来越多的中产阶级家庭的孩子将降生在中国南方城市广州，这个美赞臣已经进军当地市场达20年的城市。 彭博社数据分析，美赞臣在去年占据市场23.7的份额，将近31亿的销售额，远远高于2009年的15.3%。 在上海的家乐福，一名叫翟乔治的购物者，购买了一桶400公克的惠氏金装婴儿配方奶粉，这桶奶粉价值92元。 “For imported milk powder, we know what’s in there,” Zhai said. “For some of the domestic ones, we aren’t sure. I think unless people can’t afford, most will always choose foreign brands, if not buying overseas. That gives you a guarantee of safety.” “进口奶粉，我们清楚知道它里面有什么，”翟说道“但是对国内品牌，我们不清楚。我相信大多数的人都不会负担不起，如果不能去国外买，那么都会选择进口品牌。它们给你安全保障。”
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发表于 2011-11-21 20:28
