【福布斯111121】罗姆尼：中国，一个作弊的国家

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【中文标题】罗姆尼：中国，一个作弊的国家

【原文标题】Romney Says China Is Cheating

【登载媒体】福布斯

【来源地址】http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/11/21/romney-says-china-is-cheating/2/

【译    者】WilliamRUC

【翻译方式】人工

【声    明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【译    文】

The quickest way to win is to cheat, and China is playing with loaded dice.
Presidential candidate Mitt Romney “blame China” stance might make him sound like a populist protector of local jobs, but it is also more likely to be misplaced.
Fareed Zakaria pointed out on his CNN site a comment Romney made recently that basically says China stole U.S. jobs, and its weak currency policy is to blame.  “China is on almost every dimension cheating. We got to recognize that. They’re manipulating their currency and by doing so they’re holding down the price of Chinese goods and making sure their products are artificially low-priced. It’s predatory pricing. It’s killing jobs in America,” Romney said.
China is far from perfect. It has a strained relationship with India over border disputes. It’s age-old Kung Fu-Karate fight with Japan persists. Taiwan is a sticking point. Southeast Asia watches it warily.  Far across the Pacific, Washington blames it for everything from a loss of manufacturing jobs to its trade deficit.
　　在赌博中取得胜利的最快方法是作弊，而中国就用了注铅的色子。
　　总统候选人罗姆尼“指责中国”，其秉持民粹主义的立场旨在保护地方就业率，但是他的想法可能最终落空。
　　Fareed Zakaria在他CNN站点上指出，罗姆尼最近评论说中国偷窃了美国的工作岗位，而且指责中国的低汇率政策。“中国几乎在任何一个维度上都在欺骗，我们必须意识到这一点。他们操控汇率，　　通过这么做，他们降低中国商品的价格，确保他们的产品保持低价。这种掠夺性的定价方式大大削减了美国的就业岗位”，罗姆尼说。
　　中国远不完美。它和印度因为边界争议关系紧张。它和日本军国主义者展开较量。台湾也是一个焦点。东南亚还有领海纠纷。而跨过大洋，华盛顿指责中国带走了制造业岗位，还扩大贸易逆差。

Yet, over the last 11 years, China’s local currency, the renmimbi (RMB) has risen by about 30% to the dollar. In 2005, the RMB was worth over 8 to the dollar. Now it is worth 6.3 RMB to the dollar. The currency does not free-float like most other major currencies left to the whims of the market. The Central Bank of China decides what the RMB is worth, even though some in Washington would prefer to decide it for them.
Meanwhile, as the RMB appreciates, so does the U.S. trade deficit with China.  The deficit stood at a record $217.3 billion year-to-date ending September 30, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade division.  Last year’s deficit was a record breaking $273 billion, beating the 2008 record of $268 billion.  A stronger RMB has had no measurable impact on the U.S.-China trade balance.
The economic case for further appreciation is flimsy, says John Wong, fund manager at Oberweis Asset Management in Hong Kong.
　　然而在过去的11年里，中国的人民币对美元已经升值30%。2005年一美元可以换人民币八元多，现在一美元可抵换6.3元人民币。人民币汇率并不像其他主要货币一样随市场自由浮动。中国中央银行决定人民币汇率，而华盛顿的一些人希望汇率更符合他们的利益。
　　同时，正如人民币的升值，美国对华逆差也在扩大。据美国统计局国际贸易部的统计，今年到9月30日为止的记录是2173亿美元，去年一年超过了2730亿美元，而2008年的记录是2680亿美元。升值的人民币对中美贸易平衡没有明显影响。
　　继续升值的经济状况会很脆弱，奥布韦斯资产管理香港公司的基金经理人John Wong说。

“That trade figure is not entirely accurate. The U.S. counts iPhone imports from China as part of the deficit just because it is assembled in China and shipped from China, but it was made in Taiwan and in the U.S. and elsewhere. China is a very small portion of that,” he says. “The RMB appreciation has had no meaningful impact on trade. Plus, as the currency appreciates, it just makes importing Chinese goods that much more expensive.”
Which brings up another point, often made by the U.S.-China Business Council, a lobby of U.S. multinationals exporting from China. If China gets too expensive for manufacturing, those jobs aren’t necessarily coming back to North Carolina. Those jobs may just as well go to India, where per capita incomes are about three times less than China’s…and they speak English. But manufacturing of lower end goods could also go to Vietnam or Bangladesh. Meanwhile, China is moving up market, and making more expensive, value-added goods that compete directly with European and U.S. made products.
While labor costs for many sectors remain well below western levels, prices for high end manufactured goods already equal or exceed those in the U.S.
Moreover, while China’s low cost labor most definitely eroded the U.S. blue collar job market in the 80s and 90s, the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico has also done its fair share. These are not policies made in Beijing that eroded blue collar labor, but policies made right in Washington, but both Republicans and Democrats.
　　“贸易数字并不完全准确。美国将从中国的iPhone进口视为逆差，因为它们在中国组装和运来，但是它们事实上是在台湾和美国其它地区生产的。中国的组装只是很小的部分”，他说，“人民币升值对贸易不会产生有意义的影响。何况随着汇率上升，只会造成从中国进口商品更为昂贵。”
　　这就引向了另一个观点，经常被美国对华进口商的组织美中贸易协会提出：如果中国的制造产品过于昂贵，这些岗位也不会回到南卡罗来纳州。这些岗位也许会转移到印度，那里的人均可支配收入不到中国的三分之一——而且他们说英语。但是低端产业也可能转移到越南或者孟加拉国。同时，中国提升了市场，生产更有附加值的昂贵商品与欧美市场直接竞争。
　　尽管中国的劳动力指向型岗位在西方标准衡量下很廉价，但是高端制造业的价格已经达到甚至超过美国水平。
　　而且，尽管中国的低端制造业在八十年代和九十年代对美国的蓝领劳动市场造成冲击，与墨西哥的北美自由贸易协定也要对此负责。北京并没有制定冲击蓝领劳动市场的政策，而是华盛顿的共和党和民主党人一起制定了这项政策。

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal this weekend, World Bank chief Robert Zoellick said that U.S. politicians attacking China for its forex policy is going to go nowhere. He said the country should stop blaming China for its problems.
“We’re starting to work with the Chinese now on the possibility of some of the low-value-added manufacturing moving to third countries, including in sub-Saharan Africa,” Zoellick said, providing fodder for the USBC’s argument on where low cost labor will move once it moves out of China. It’s unlikely coming back to Ohio. “That’s probably going to be more fruitful, even though it may not be as satisfying for somebody as clubbing people. But do you want to know the real thing a country has to do? Quit blaming others; clean up your own act. The U.S. needs to fix some things at home,” Zoellick said.
Of course, no elected official with a microphone is going to say that.
The main purpose of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to China in August was to put public pressure on Beijing to strengthen the renmimbi and back door talks on trade not conducive to sound bytes.
The U.S. has been pressuring Beijing on the forex rate since 2003, even when both economies were booming and many Americans were buying Hummers and second homes in Vegas with no money down.
　　在本周末接受华尔街日报的采访中，世界银行总裁佐利克说，美国政治家们攻击中国外汇政策的做法不会有什么结果。他认为美国不应该把自己的问题怪罪到中国头上。
　　“我们正与中国一道努力，探寻把一些低附加值制造业转移到第三国的可能，比如撒哈拉以南的非洲”，佐利克说，就美国统计局的观点，提出如果廉价劳动力离开中国后何去何从。不太可能回到俄亥俄。“这样可能会有点好处，尽管对有些团伙来说尚不满意。但是你知道一个国家真正应该做的事情吗？不要责备别人，整理一下自己的行为。美国需要修正自己的政策”，佐利克说。
　　当然，没有一个竞选上的官员会对着麦克风这么说。
　　美国副总统拜登八月对华访问的主要目的是就提高人民币汇率施加舆论压力。
　　美国从2003年起就要求中国提高汇率，哪怕在两国经济都繁荣，许多美国人购买悍马车和拉斯维加斯的第二套房子之时。

China’s growing trade surplus with the U.S. reflects a reorganization of the production network in Asia. China specializes in final processing and assembly for Asian exports. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority did a study years ago that has proven correct to this day: RMB appreciation contributes little to correcting the U.S. trade deficit. Moreover, techical simulations of the effects of a one-off appreciation of the renminbi on non-China Asian exports suggest that the net gain in non-China Asian exports, if any, from a renminibi appreciation would also be small.
Maybe China should blame India? Or robots? In fact, China lost 16 million manufacturing jobs, a decline of 15%, between 1995 and 2002, according to a study of manufacturing jobs in the 20 largest economies by Joe Carson, director of economic research at Alliance Capital Management. Guess what happened in the U.S. during that same period? Did those jobs all get repatriated to low income states south of the Mason-Dixon line? Romney might think so. But in that same period, U.S. factory employment fell by 2 million, or 11%.
A stronger renmimbi is probably good for China, but not for the reasons U.S. presidential candidates cite. Accelerating the RMB’s appreciation is considered a reasonable counter-measure to another round of U.S. monetary stimulus, like a QE3. The Chinese government has been controlling the appreciation of RMB as it still remains one of the primary weapons to fight inflationary pressures. High inflation is a serious issue for the government due to concerns that rapid inflation could produce general unrest and political instability.
　　中国不断增长的对美贸易顺差反映了亚洲生产格局的重组。中国在亚洲出口中专于最终组装。香港货币管理局多年前的研究在今天可证明其正确：人民币升值对缓解美国贸易逆差帮助甚微。况且，人民币一次性升值对中国以外亚洲国家的预期净收益，如果有的话，也不会有多少。
　　也许中国应该指责印度？或者机器人？事实上，中国丧失了1600万制造业岗位，据联盟资本管理的经济研究主人乔卡森（Joe Carson）对世界上二十大经济体所作的研究称，1995年与2002年之间减少了15%。猜猜那段时间美国发生了什么？这些岗位转移到了美国梅森 -狄克逊线（译者注：美国南北分界线）以南的低收入州吗？罗姆尼也许会这么想。但是与此同时，美国工厂的雇员减少了200万，相当于11%。
　　强劲的人民币也许有利于中国，但是并不构成美国总统候选人关注的原因。提高人民币升值速度被认为是新一轮的美国货币刺激政策，就像第三次量化宽松（QE3）一般。中国政府控制人民币升值，作为反击通胀压力的基础武器。过高的通胀率当然是政府的担忧，因为通货膨胀导致政局不稳定与社会动荡。

安住无常

“作弊”比强盗要好，这就是进步

lyycc

美元贬值及华尔街那些大佬们的假账行为就是美国对全世界人民的作弊行为

iphoon

这是我们在伟大的毛泽东思想指导下的斗争艺术，;P

李小龙的双截棍

lyycc 发表于 2011-11-23 14:07
美元贬值及华尔街那些大佬们的假账行为就是美国对全世界人民的作弊行为

还能说出什么更严厉的字眼，等着看

莫说

每次都这样啊！无耻的西方人！

Frontier

自己开外挂就别怪别人作弊……

tony1984

这不就是美国总统竞选一贯的伎俩吗？疯狂抨击中国已换取民意。
CNN的Fareed Zakaria在两次采访我们温总后视乎对美国的这些政客们更加的不满了，在很多片文章中都是为中国解释，然后呼吁美国政客不要一味的指责他国，认清自身的问题！