【经济学人11.19】台湾大选有人搅局会威胁到支持中国

沧海渺渺

【中文标题】台湾大选有人搅局会威胁到支持中国
【原文标题】An old bruiser enters the race, threatening to split the pro-China vote
【登载媒体】经济学人
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/node/21538792
【译 者】沧海渺渺
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】

TAIWAN’S president, Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT), who is running for re-election on January 14th, was once thought to have a clear advantage. Elected in a landslide in 2008, Mr Ma brought tensions with China to their lowest state in six decades, forged business agreements across the Taiwan Strait, and help keep an export-dependent island from being swept up in the global financial crisis. In contrast to his wealth of experience (Mr Ma has also been mayor of Taipei, the capital), his chief opponent, Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is a rather owlish academic who has never before been elected to public office.
台湾总统、国民党人马英九于1月14日开始竞选下届总统，之前被认为有明显胜选优势。他于2008年当选，那年台湾发生了严重的山体滑坡，台海关系也降到了60年来最低点。此后，他促成了台湾与大陆的贸易协定，使台湾一扫全球金融危机的阴霾维持了其出口地位。相较于马英九的丰富的政治经历（他曾做过台北市长），他的主要竞争对手蔡英文，出身于支持台独的民进党，从未当选过领导人，属于学院出身的鹰派人物。
Now things are not looking nearly as certain. In recent weeks the president’s popularity has dropped. A prediction market run by National Chengchi University, accurate in the past, says the probability of his winning the election dived from over 59% on October 16th to under 42% on November 14th; Ms Tsai stands at 49%. Opinion polls in the island’s media, which usually leans towards the KMT, also show slumping popularity, though Mr Ma still leads by a few percentage points. A victory for Ms Tsai, a moderate in her party, might yet raise tensions with China, which has growled that Taiwanese moves towards independence will be met with force.
新近发生的事情出现了某种不确定性。最近几周马英九的支持率呈下滑趋势。台湾政治大学的预测调查向来被认为具有较高准确度，近来的调查结果显示，马英九的胜选可能性从10月16日的59%下滑到了11月14日的42%；而蔡英文则保持在49%。岛内倾向于国民党的媒体所作的意见调查也表明马的支持度在下滑，虽然仍有几个百分点的领先优势。若民进党中间派人物蔡英文获胜，台海关系可能陷入紧张局面，而中国大陆也已经多次说过，若台湾谋求独立，大陆将不排除使用武力。
What has changed for Mr Ma is the arrival of a second China-friendly presidential candidate. James Soong was once a KMT stalwart, popular in the 1990s as governor of “Taiwan province” (a vestigial position from the days when the Taiwan government, losers in the Chinese civil war, pretended to represent all of China). Mr Soong fell out with his colleagues, and was expelled from the KMT more than a decade ago. Today his popularity ratings stand as high as 15%.
改变马英九竞选状况的是另一位亲善大陆的总统候选人宋楚瑜。宋曾是国民党的忠实拥护者，上个世纪90年代担任台湾第一位民选省长，曾广受支持（国民党政府在国共内战战败以后，依然保留台湾省长这一职务，以表明其仍然是全中国的代表）。十多年以前，宋和他的同事闹翻，最终被排挤出了国民党。今天他的支持率高达15%。
In a tight race he could easily shave off votes from Mr Ma, leading to a DPP victory. Just that happened in 2000, when Mr Soong contested the presidency and split the pro-China vote. It ensured victory for the DPP’s hardline pro-independence candidate, Chen Shui-bian, who is now serving a life sentence in jail for corruption. China favours a victory for Mr Ma. Mr Soong claims China tried to persuade him not to run, though he is probably saying that to earn kudos—even pro-China candidates must not be seen at home as too cuddly towards the Communists.
在这种不相上下的选情下，宋楚瑜能够轻易地夺取马英九的选票，从而导致民进党的胜选。就像2000年那样，宋竞选总统，分裂了亲中派的选票，最终导致民进党强硬派人物陈水扁渔翁得利，而这位前总统目前因腐败被判终身监禁。大陆希望马英九胜选，宋楚瑜也称大陆试图说服他不要参选。他参选也可能是要赢得一些面子——因为即便是亲中派候选人，也不想让人觉得自己对共产党过分亲近。
On November 15th Mr Soong cleared a hurdle when Taiwan’s Central Election Commission confirmed that he had collected enough signatures in support of his presidential bid. A Soong-KMT compact has occasionally been mooted, but now seems very unlikely. Mr Soong vows to fight to the end for Taiwan’s presidency.
11月15日，台湾中央选举委员会确认，宋楚瑜已经获得了参选总统所需的足够的签名支持，这为他清除了一项障碍。宋领导的亲民党和国民党曾一度被提议联合，现在看来无此可能。宋放言要参选到底。
But Mr Ma’s popularity was falling even before Mr Soong’s formal candidacy. He dropped a bombshell on October 17th by saying that he favours signing a peace treaty with China within the next decade, provided the public and parliament supported it. It was the first time that Mr Ma had given a timetable for negotiating such a hugely sensitive issue, and it has whipped up alarm in the media and among a China-wary public. The DPP accuses Mr Ma of steering the island towards unification. Mr Ma later backtracked, suggesting, among other things, that a treaty would need a referendum.
在宋正式参选之前，马英九的支持率就在下跌。因10月17日马英九投下重磅炸弹，他说到，他希望在公众和议会的支持下，在今后的十年当中与大陆签订和平协定。这是他第一次为这一重大敏感问题的谈判给出了时间表，闻此，岛内和谨慎的大陆媒体一片哗然。民进党谴责马英九谋求与大陆统一。马英九之后打了退堂鼓，声称和平协定需要公投来决定。
Ms Tsai’s popular focus, meanwhile, is on social welfare. Despite stellar economic growth of over 10% last year, Mr Ma’s China policies are still perceived to benefit big business at the expense of ordinary folk. In cities rising prices put property beyond the reach of many. At DPP rallies, supporters approve of Ms Tsai’s higher subsidies for elderly farmers. Now, darkening economic clouds in the world economy may help her case and hurt Mr Ma’s. Already exports to Europe have suffered, and reports are rising of people being laid off or asked to take unpaid leave. Mr Ma still has some cards to play: an economy that would be the envy of many elsewhere, as well as the support of those in favour of closer mainland ties who think it silly to split the pro-China vote.
同时，蔡英文的支持来自于她对民生的关注。尽管去年台湾经济增长率超过10%，马英九的大陆政策仍然被认为以大多数民众的利益为代价使大型商业集团获利。城市里物价高涨使得房产价格超出了大多数人的购买能力。在民进党集会中，支持者们认同蔡英文提出的给年老农民发放高补贴的提议。现在，世界经济下滑的乌云可能会有利于蔡英文而不利于马英九。对欧洲的出口已经遭受重创，新闻中也时不时地报道人们被解雇或者放无薪假的消息。然而马英九还有牌可打：令其他各地羡慕的经济增长，和那些希望保持与大陆亲近关系的人的支持。

李小龙的双截棍

他们了解台湾情况了解的这么清楚~

ykfo2

蔡加把劲，我还想看看蘑菇呢

滔滔1949

宋楚瑜不当一线领导很多年了，再不出来搅合搅合，人家就要忘记他是谁了。讽刺的是，他现在可以拿来利用吸引眼球的是他还有被利用来当作对付国民党的一颗子弹的价值，而非当年能牵制国民党和民进党的第三块大石。做人做到这份上，实在不能不可叹悲哀了。