【华尔街日报111125】东盟应利用北京要面子脾气解决南海问题

weater76

【中文标题】南海两步走战略

【原文标题】South China Sea Two-Step

【登载媒体】华尔街日报

【来源地址】http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204452104577057842355358370.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

【译    者】WilliamRUC

【翻译方式】人工

【声    明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【译    文】

中国部队驻扎在菲律宾声称拥有主权的美济礁

The East Asia Summit in Bali last week saw a flurry of activity on the South China Sea. U.S. President Barack Obama raised the territorial dispute, but Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao snapped back, arguing the summit wasn't the place to discuss the issue, which should be solved bilaterally by the states concerned. Finally, chairman of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono noted, after 16 of the 18 leaders had raised maritime security in their remarks, that consensus had been reached to indeed discuss the issue.
　　巴厘岛上星期的东亚峰会见证了南海的紧张局面。美国总统奥巴马提出该地区的争议，但是中国总理温家宝回避了，他认为峰会不适合探讨这个议题——应该由相关国家双方商议。最后，东南亚联盟主席、印尼总统苏西洛提出，在18个国家中16国提出了他们的海上安全后，讨论这个问题已经成为共识。

While this was a hopeful sign, doubts remain whether Asean has the cohesion to negotiate a satisfactory bilateral resolution to the dispute with Beijing. Internationalizing the issue to the extent possible might be the best bet to pressure China to tone down its position of "indisputable sovereignty" over 80% of the South China Sea.
This year China has aggressively asserted its sovereignty claims in the area by challenging oil exploration vessels operating in waters claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam. In the former case, an exploration vessel was forced to leave Reed Bank by a Chinese ship. As for Vietnam, Chinese ships reportedly cut the cables of two vessels towing seismic monitoring equipment.
　　尽管这是一个有希望的迹象，东盟是否能够合力与北京谈判达到令人满意的结果仍值得怀疑。将这一议题国际化也许是迫使中国在南海主权“不容争辩”的声音上减弱的尝试。
　　今年中国进攻性地提出该地区的领土主张，驱逐该海域的菲律宾与越南石油勘探船只。之前，一艘勘探船因一艘中国舰艇被迫离开礼乐滩。越南方面有报告称中国船只切断了两艘地质监控船之间连接的电缆。

China and Asean members are now about to begin negotiating a Code of Conduct to reduce tensions. But Asean has failed to adopt a common policy on the issue, essentially conceding to China that maritime security issues involve only the six claimants—China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei—and not the six other non-claimant members of Asean.
This is a deeply flawed strategy. Maritime security in Southeast Asia affects both claimants and non-claimants as international law applies equally everywhere. Reaching a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea frees China to act assertively in Southeast Asian waters stretching from the eastern Indian Ocean through to the Gulf of Thailand.
　　中国和东盟成员正希望通过谈判制定一套规则减少紧张气氛。但是东盟在这一议题上并没有达成共识，关注围绕中国的海上安全问题只有六个国家和地区——中国、台湾、越南、菲律宾、马来西亚和文莱——另外六个东盟成员并没有提出要求。
　　这是一条带有很大缺陷的战略。因为国际法应当普遍地公平适用，东南亚的海上安全关系到所有主张国和非主张国。在南海达成一套规则让中国可以自由地在东南亚海域行动，这片地区从印度洋东部直到泰国湾。

Given Asean's capitulation, it is unsurprising that the Philippines and Vietnam are, as a start, hedging their bets. Both seek support from major regional powers, including the United States. However, both are also trying to maintain good relations with Beijing.
Both Asean countries are courting the U.S. and arming for potential conflict, taking measures to beef up their military forces for South China Sea contingencies. The Philippines revised its defense doctrine to include territorial defense and increased defense funding for the modernization of its armed forces. Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario earlier this year went to Washington, making the case that the 1951 treaty between the two countries obligated the superpower to come to Manila's defense.
　　鉴于东盟的投降，菲律宾和越南对冲他们的赌注并不令人意外。两国都在寻求地区主要力量的支持，包括美利坚合纵国。但是，两个国家都在试图与北京保持良好关系。
　　这两个国家都依傍美国，采取措施加强南海的军事力量，为潜在的冲突做准备。菲律宾的国防准备包括地区防御设施建设和投入资金提高武装力量的现代化程度。菲律宾外交部长萨奥罗今年早期访问华盛顿，重申1951年的条约义务，寻求这个超级大国帮助马尼拉方面的防御。

As for Vietnam, it announced several years ago that it would procure six Kilo-class conventional submarines from Russia. This year Vietnam received the second delivery of a Russian Gepard-class guided missile frigate, its second battery of Bastion land-based anti-ship cruise missiles and additional Sukhoi Su-30 jet fighters. Vietnam even held widely publicized live-fire naval exercises to signal its resolve after the cable cutting incidents.
Then there's the advanced defense ties with the U.S. Hanoi and Washington signed their first defense cooperation agreement this year, and two U.S. military sealift ships have undertaken minor repairs in Cam Ranh Bay.
　　对越南而言，多年之前就宣布了购买俄罗斯6艘“基洛”级常规潜艇的计划。今年越南收到了俄罗斯的第二艘猎豹级导弹护卫舰，它的第二套堡垒陆基反舰巡航导弹设施和额外的苏30喷气式战斗机。越南还广泛宣传了其海军实弹演习，以显示其电缆切断事件后的决心。
　　越南也和美国建立了更紧密的防务关系。河内与华盛顿今年签署了它们的第一个防务合作协定，两艘美国军事运输船在金兰湾进行小型维修。

But this doesn't mean Vietnam is abandoning its military relationship with China. Security analysts who think the U.S. will return to its former base at Cam Ranh Bay are too hasty. In fact, Vietnam has successfully used a better relationship with the U.S. to enhance its bargaining position with China. This year it conducted joint naval patrols with the Chinese navy in the Gulf of Tonkin and Vietnamese naval ships made their second port visit to China. The joint statement issued on Vietnam Communist Party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong's visit to China included a lengthy paragraph spelling out future defense cooperation.
Manila and Hanoi have sought to engage China diplomatically to lower tensions. Philippines President Benigno Aquino visited Beijing in September before Secretary General Trong visited in October.
　　但是这并不意味着越南放弃了和中国的军事关系。安全分析专家认为美国会回到其昔日基地金兰湾的想法太仓促了。事实上，越南利用与美国更好的关系来平衡与中国的交往。今年该国和中国在北部湾进行了联合海军巡逻，越南海军开展了第二次对华访问。越共总书记阮富仲对华访问发布的联合宣言包含了在未来防务合作方面的长篇叙述。
　　马尼拉和河内都在寻求通过外交方式缓解与中国的紧张局面。在十月越共总书记访华之前，菲律宾总统阿基诺九月就访问了北京。

But this policy isn't just playing off the U.S. against China. Both countries are trying to internationalize the issue. The Philippines took the lead this year by raising the matter with the United Nations and by lobbying fellow Asean members to support an initiative to clarify which areas of the South China Sea are in dispute and which are not.
Mr. Aquino and Vietnam's Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, have also made separate visits to Tokyo, where they elicited Japanese support. Vietnam cleverly dispatched President Truong Tan Sang to India while its party leader was in Beijing. Vietnam and India announced a major oil deal, which China promptly protested.
　　但是这个政策并不是甩开美国。两个国家都在试图将该议题国际化。菲律宾将这个问题提交联合国，游说东盟国家支持划定南海争议地区疆界的提案。
　　阿基诺与越南总理阮晋勇也分别访问了东京寻求日本的支持。越南策略性地在党的领导人在北京访问时，将国家主席派往印度。越南和印度宣布了一项重要的石油协议，中国随即提出了抗议。

The outreach to the U.S. is then part of the international strategy. Last year it was Vietnam, then Asean chair, which lobbied the U.S. and other regional countries to raise South China Sea issues. Eleven foreign ministers joined U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in raising concerns in July.
This is not a matter of opposing China, but rather of peace and prosperity that affects all in Asia. In Bali, Mr. Obama restated the U.S. position Mrs. Clinton articulated last year—the U.S. takes no sides but supports a peaceful, collaborative diplomatic process based on international law and the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea in particular. He also restated U.S. interests as including freedom of navigation and unimpeded international commerce.
China might gnash its teeth, but Mr. Obama is hitting the right notes. This problem is global and might just force many countries in Asia to take sides. Beijing, which cares for saving face in the international stage, could soften. That could be the opportunity for Asean to press China for a settlement. A collaborative solution is possible, if Asean is up to the challenge.
　　与美国的交往则是国际策略的部分了。去年是云南，然后是东盟轮值主席，游说美国和该地区其他国家，提出中国南海问题。七月份十一个国家的外长和美国国务卿希拉里共同讨论了相关方面的担忧。
　　这并不是在抵制中国，而是在亚洲寻求和平与繁荣。奥巴马总统在巴黎岛重申了希拉里去年提出的立场——美国不支持任何一方，主张基于国际法和尤其是联合国海洋法公约，通过和平的外交方式解决问题。他还重申了美国的利益包括航行自由和畅通的国际贸易。
　　中国可能会咬牙切齿，但是奥巴马有理有据。这一问题已经国际化，亚洲的许多国家也不得不站队。在国际舞台上要面子的北京也许会软下来。这是东盟给中国施压最终解决的机会。一项协作解决方案完全有可能，只要东盟敢于面对挑战。

千年明月

在南海问题上，永远要坚持一条：领土与主权问题绝对不能退让、妥协。

水不见了

千年明月 发表于 2011-11-28 22:01
在南海问题上，永远要坚持一条：领土与主权问题绝对不能退让、妥协。

如果这一条是要点的话，显然土共并没能抓住要点，土共的态度比较暧昧。
—— 一直是“搁置主权，共同开发”这种一厢情愿的呼声。

clover213

。。我觉得把问题国际化已经是彻底不给TG面子了……要TG在国际舞台，全球所有国家面前承认自己曾经的要求“过分”了，现在决定放弃……这面子要往哪搁哦- =

清音

凡是争议区，我们不开采，也不让人开采，你来勘探我有渔政海监招呼你。维持现状二十年以后，我国国民生产总值可望达到米国两倍，养十来艘航母。那时候我们再来谈吧。