本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-11-29 09:13 编辑
【中文标题】有关中国经济崩溃的言论正在流行中 【原文标题】Predictions of an economic collapse in China are in vogue 【登载媒体】洛杉矶时报 【来源地址】latimes.com/business/la-fi-china-bears-20111128,0,7099607.story 【译 者】沧海渺渺 【翻译方式】人工 【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。 【译 文】 Once-unbridled optimism is giving way to fears that slowing GDP growth,rising public debt and stubbornly high inflation are signs of bigger problemsto come. 国内生产总值增速趋缓，公共债务逐渐增加，通货膨胀居高不下，预示危机即将来临。对中国经济发展的无限乐观情绪正在被这种担忧所替代。 Not long ago, thosewho predicted that China's economy was headed for a fall were in a lonelyplace. 不久之前，那些唱衰中国经济的人鲜有附和之声。 U.S. economistNouriel Roubini, widely praised for calling the U.S. housing meltdown, wasdismissed as a serial contrarian when it came to his pessimistic China views.So was well-known hedge fund manager Jim Chanos. Lawyer and author Gordon Changwas derided as a Chicken Little for his 2006 book "The Coming Collapse ofChina." 美国经济学家Nouriel Roubini，曾因预言美国房产业会陷入衰退而广受称赞，但却因其对中国经济的悲观论调而被嗤之以鼻。同样遭遇的还有著名对冲基金经理人Jim Chanos。律师兼作家Gordon Chang因其2006年的著作《中国即将衰退》而被讥讽为“小鸡”。 Suddenly they'reall Nostradamus. 一夜之间，他们全都变成了先知。 Backed by datashowing a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy, doomsayers have takencenter stage. Unbridled optimism has given way to fears over widening cracks inthe Chinese economic miracle. 数据显示：全球第二大经济体经济增速逐步放缓，这些预言者又被推到了舞台中央。盲目的乐观已经让位于各种担忧——中国经济奇迹将陷入衰退。 The gloomysentiment has spilled into financial markets, whose investors have been runningfor the exits. 这种悲观的预期已经蔓延到了金融市场，投资者们正纷纷寻找出路。 The Hang Seng ChinaEnterprises Index, which tracks the stock performance of major mainlandcompanies listed in Hong Kong, isdown 26% so far this year, makingit the worst-performing market gauge in Asia. 今年以来，反映香港上市的大陆主要企业股市表现的恒生中国企业指数已经下跌26%，在亚洲市场表现最差。 The practice ofshort-selling — betting that a stock will fall in value — has become sopervasive among traders of Chinese equities that analysts at French bankingfirm Societe Generale deemed China the "world's most crowded short."For instance, nearly a third of the shares of China Overseas Land &Investment Ltd. were shorted in August and September, signaling doubts aboutthe prospects of China's largest property developer. 卖空是股票贬值的信号。面对大量股民抛售中国股票的现象，法国银行Societe Generale的分析者们认为中国股票将成为“世界抛售之最”。比如，今年八月至九月，中国海外发展有限公司近三分之一的股票被抛售，这表明市场对这家中国最大的房产开发企业的前景并不看好。 "There'sgrowing sentiment that the Chinese story doesn't make sense," said Chang,who is now invited to investor conferences and remains convinced of a loomingcrash. Bears like Changsee slowing GDP growth, rising public debt and stubbornly high inflation asevidence China's problems are about to get bigger. “不看好中国经济的论调越来越多，” GordonChang说道。他近期受邀参加了多个投资者会议，坚持认为中国经济会出大问题。 Skepticism runsespecially deep when it comes to real estate, which represents about a fifth ofChina's economic output, by some estimates. In a pattern eerily similar to theU.S. housing boom, easy financing in recent years unleashed a Chinesedevelopment frenzy that sent prices soaring. Eager home buyers camped out for thechance to buy into planned developments, sight unseen. The typical1,000-square-foot apartment in Shanghai costs $335,000, about 45 times theaverage resident's annual salary. 约占中国经济总量五分之一的中国房产业受到了更多质疑。与美国房产业急速扩张的模式惊人地相似，容易融资的中国房地产业展现了中国的急速发展，房产价格一飞冲天。炒房者们纷纷出手以图保值增值，结果并不明朗。在上海，一套普通的面积为1000平方英尺（约为93平方米）的公寓，售价高达33.5万美金（约为216.6万人民币），大约相当于上海居民平均年收入的45倍。 Now China's housingbubble is deflating. Home prices reversed in October for the second consecutivemonth as cash-strapped developers became desperate to unload homes. An index of35 major cities showed 29 had experienced a decline in sales from a year ago;sales plunged more than 50% in six of them, including Beijing. 现在中国的房产泡沫正在破裂。进入十月房屋价格已经连续第二个月开始下跌，急需现金的房产开发商急迫地售卖房屋。一项反映全国35个主要大中城市房屋价格的指数表明：29个城市的销售量一年前就在下滑，其中6个城市的销售量下跌了50%，包括北京在内。 The Chinesegovernment says it's all part of the plan. After loosening the credit spigotduring the financial crisis to keep the economy humming, it's now tighteninglending and clamping down on speculators. 中国政府说这是符合政府计划的。经济危机期间为了保持经济增长而被放松的信贷现在被大幅收紧。 But critics saidthe damage has been done. Behind China's gleaming new high-rises, freeways andbullet trains, the bears see ghost towns, empty roads and superfluous raillines. Public debt has exploded, raising fears of an overload that could weighon China's economy. 批评者们认为损失已经造成。在中国夺目的高楼、高速公路和高铁背后，人们已经看到了鬼城、空无车辆的道路和过剩的铁道。随着公共债务的急剧增加，人们越来越担忧中国经济会陷入低谷。 "A lot of thatgrowth was just state-led investment on a massive scale," said VictorShih, a political scientist at Northwestern University and expert on Chineselocal government debt who is firmly in the bear camp. "China is a behemothnow. If it gets in trouble, everyone gets in trouble." “大量增长源自于国家大规模投资，”Victor Shih说道。这位西北大学的政治学研究者是“中国政府债务”研究方面的专家，属于唱衰阵营的一员。“如今的中国是一头庞然大物。假如其陷入困境，每个人都将陷入困境。” Faced with agrowing number of clients worried about China's prospects, Tao Wang, a HongKong-based economist at financial services giant UBS, recently released aresearch note aimed at calming investors' fears. "We have hadto refute different arguments about why China is about to collapse or implodeevery day," she wrote. 面对客户与日俱增的担忧，最近，香港金融服务巨头UBS的一位经济专家Tao Wang发布了一项研究报告，旨在平复投资者的担忧。 “每天我们不得不反驳各种各样的关于中国经济走向衰退的论调，”她写道。 But hardly anyonedisputes that China's current economic model is under pressure. Itsgovernment-backed spending binge isn't sustainable. And China is feeling theeffects of a slowdown in Europe and the U.S., the two largest customers for itsexports. Longer term, its days as the world's low-cost factory floor arethreatened by cheaper competitors and a shrinking labor force. 可是几乎所有人都相信：中国当前的经济模式面临着压力。 政府主导的投资模式是不可持续的。欧洲和美国是中国最大的两个出口对象，其经济的衰退已带给中国种种影响。而长远来看，中国的世界廉价工厂的地位也将不保，挑战来自于其他廉价竞争者和日益减少的劳动力。 The global economywould benefit if China could rebalance its economy so that its 1.3 billioncitizens started spending more. But they can't because China has structured itseconomy to favor big businesses over consumers. 如果中国能够调整经济扩大内需，那么全球经济也将随之受益。行不通的原因在于中国的经济政策有利于大型产业而不利于众多个体消费者。 Beijing does thisby keeping its currency, the yuan, artificially weak. That benefits exportersby making Chinese goods cheap. But a weak yuan fuels inflation at home andmakes imported goods expensive. Authorities also keep interest rates low sothat state-owned companies get cheap loans. But that means depositors earn punyreturns. 北京此举在于控制人民币的“弱势”地位，以利于出口商压低中国产品价格。然而，“弱势”的人民币在国内助长了通胀，也提高了进口产品的价格。中国当局还维持了较低的银行利率，以使国有企业能够得到低息贷款。这也意味着存款者的回报相当有限。 It all adds up toless money in the pockets of consumers, said Peking University economistMichael Pettis. "Therepression of consumption is why I never bought the bulls' story," Pettissaid. "China has to go through an important restructuring of sources ofgrowth that will have very big implications." 这一切都是从消费者兜里掏钱，北京大学经济学家Michael Pettis说。 “对消费的抑制就是我从来不看好中国经济的原因，”Pettis说。“中国需要调整经济结构，这对经济增长有非常大的意义。” China's breakneckpace of expansion will inevitably moderate. The question is whether thatslowdown will be carefully engineered by China's government — a scenarioRoubini called "mission impossible" — or a harder, more painful landing. 中国的这种危险的急速扩张将毫无疑问地减缓下来。问题是政府能否温和地减缓——Roubini认为这是“不可能完成的任务”——否则就是硬着陆，痛苦的硬着陆。 Some say all thehand-wringing is overwrought and that China short-sellers such as Chanos,founder of the New York investment firm Kynikos Associates, have everything togain by espousing gloom and doom. 有人却说所有的困难都被过分夸大了，像唱空中国的纽约投资公司Kynikos Associates 创始人Chanos会从这种论调中大大受益。 "Chanos is acompany analyst with no understanding of economics who treats China as if itwere a company. It's not; it's a country," said Arthur Kroeber, managingdirector of the Beijing-based research firm, GaveKal-Dragonomics, in ane-mailed response to questions. Chanos did notrespond to a request for an interview. “Chanos是一个公司分析师，不了解经济，对待中国像对待一个公司，而不是一个国家，”北京一家咨询公司GaveKal-Dragonomics的经理Arthur Kroeber说。他没有接受采访，邮件回复了我们的问题。 Bill Bishop, aclosely followed independent tech analyst in Beijing, said that "thependulum has swung too far" in favor of the bears. "I think thefears are overblown. People in the U.S. are scared of China, and some peoplehope it drops," said Bishop, co-founder of financial news service CBSMarket Watch. He described himself as belonging to the"China-will-muddle-through camp." That faction saysChina's leaders will do what it takes to avoid calamity. Others aren't so sure. "The reasonablebulls and bears among us agree on most of the facts," Northwestern's Shihsaid. "But at the end of the day, we disagree on the Chinese government'sability to make tough changes." BillBishop，北京的一位独立分析员，他认为“钟摆摆到了唱衰者的那边”。 “我认为人们过度忧虑了。美国人总是惧怕中国，有人就希望中国崩溃，”他说。 这个阵营认为中国领导人会采取措施避免经济崩溃。 “理性的唱衰者和看好者认同大部分的事实，”西北大学的Shih说。“但是说到底，我们对中国政府应对危机的能力看法不同。” | 
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发表于 2011-11-28 17:51
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