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【中文标题】中国的世纪吗？不完全是
【原文标题】A Chinese Century? Not Quite
【登载媒体】郝芬顿邮报
【来源地址】http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-doctoroff/a-chinese-century-not-qui_b_1117446.html
【译 者】 WilliamRUC
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
In the narrowest sense, a superpower has the military might to force the world to acquiesce to hegemonic resolve (for example, the Soviet Union). Then there are economic superpowers that influence capital flows and global growth rates. When they struggle, the world does too. Finally, there are soft superpowers, nations that "own" universal values.
狭义上讲，一个军事超级大国可能会要求世界屈服于其霸权（比方说苏联）。然而一个经济超级大国就会推动资本流动和全球发展。当他们发展时，世界也会发展。最后，还有软实力超级大国，那些“拥有”普世价值的国家。
American strengths and weaknesses.
In response to the brouhaha over the American debt ceiling, a correspondent for the German newspaper Die Welt wrote in July, 2011: "Out of the American twenty-first-century crisis could come the downfall of the dominant power of the twentieth century." His sentiments, perhaps overheated, are a reminder that nothing lasts forever. It is to be hoped that America's disorientation, triggered by the rise of China, political polarization, and a hangover of material self-indulgence, is not permanent. Even if GDP growth slows due to protracted deleveraging, the combination of a growing population and high per capita income ensures continued economic sway. America's military budget, currently eight times that of China, will continue to underpin geopolitical clout, even as the country's status of as an 800-pound gorilla diminishes in a multi-polar world.
American values -- as opposed to its political system -- will have global appeal for generations. Individualism -- the encouragement of society to define oneself independent of society -- does not travel well, but respect for the dignity of the common man touches all hearts. Iconic American brands such as Nike and Coke, vessels of hope, will never go out of style. American pop culture will not be challenged. Superstars -- from Lady Gaga to Michael Jackson to Angelina Jolie to Johnny Depp -- epitomize self-actualization, an aspiration that transcends culture.
美国的优势与弱势
就美国债务达到上限引发争议，德国世界报一名记者2011年7月写道：“美国21世纪危机可能预示着20世纪的主导力量垮台。”他的情绪或许过热了，但是提醒了我们没有什么可以永远持续。美国因中国崛起迷失，两极对抗的政治，醉生梦死的自我迷失并不长久。即便GDP增长放缓，人口增长和较高的平均收入确保经济继续向前发展。美国的军费目前是中国的八倍，将继续巩固地缘政治影响力，在多极化的世界中保持八百磅大猩猩的形象。
美国的价值观——而不是它的政治制度——对一代又一代人有着全球影响。个人主义——社会鼓励个人实现自我价值——传播地并不顺畅，但是对普通人尊严的尊敬打动了所有人的心。美国的著名品牌如耐克、可口可乐犹如希望的船只，永远都不会过气。美国的流行文化不会被挑战。超级明星——从Lady Gaga到迈克尔•杰克逊，从安吉丽娜•朱莉到约翰•尼德普——集自我实现之大成，鼓舞了超越文化的文化。
China's soft power gap.
China will undoubtedly evolve into an economic superpower. Its economy, within decades, will become the world's largest. Per capita disposable income will be constrained but aggregate spending power will be massive. China's industrial tentacles will be felt everywhere; traditional Chinese medicine will become more popular; and university students will learn Mandarin.
But China will not easily capture hearts and minds. The Chinese are ethnocentric. In large ways and small, an instinct to narrowly defend interests can be off putting:
First, the country maintains a chip on its shoulder regarding indignities suffered at the hands of foreigners between the Opium War and the establishment of Communist China in 1949. Strident outrage erupts whenever any country "hurts the feelings of the Chinese people."
Second, in a pinch, the government lapses into bullyboy petulance, throwing economic and military weight around the region. Diplomatic relationships with Japan and India are tetchy, largely because China remains brittle and insecure. Decades-long territorial disputes are unresolved.
中国软实力的差距
中国无疑会发展成为经济超级大国。几十年之内，它的经济规模将达到全球第一。人均可支配收入会有所限制，但是总体消费量将相当大。中国工业的触须能够延展到各个地方；中药将更加流行；大学生间将兴起学习普通话的潮流。
但是中国不能轻松捕获人们的心。中国人秉持种族中心主义，或多或少地捍卫狭隘的利益。
首先，鸦片战争和社会主义中国在1949年的成立给它的肩膀深深地刻下了烙印。任何国家“伤害中国人民的感情”时，刺耳的愤怒声音都会爆发。
其次，政府就像性急的男孩，在周边地区投放经济与军事势力。因为中国造成周边局势的脆弱与不安全，与印度和日本的外交关系并不稳定。几十年的边界争议还没有得到解决。
Third, although Chinese society is more civil than a few years ago, daily life is still dog-eat-dog. Charity organizations are underdeveloped due to the party's reluctance to grant authority to any entity not under its direct control. Families, unprotected by rule of law, fend for themselves at the expense of individuals outside the clan. Anyone who fails to conform to convention -- for example, the handicapped or mentally ill, homosexuals, and AIDS patients -- is socially ostracized. Spitting and burping in public is commonplace. In crowded elevators and airplanes, mobile phone users lack volume control.
Fourth, Chinese, a language in which written and spoken forms are completely unrelated, remains a temple of linguistic exclusivity, a walled garden, frustratingly off limits to everyone but the most disciplined and determined foreigners. Every character requires memorization; every sentence must conform to structural imperatives.
第三，尽管中国公民社会建设相比几年前更为进步了，日常生活仍然存在各种狗咬狗的现象。因为党要求直接控制，慈善组织发展尚不健全。因为家庭成员利益未被法律保护，个人在家庭之外的任由自生自灭。任何被社会标准衡量为不正常的人，比如残疾人和精神病人，同性恋者和艾滋病患者都被社会排斥。在公共场合随地吐痰和打嗝稀疏平常。在拥挤的电梯和飞机上，移动电话使用者并没有控制音量的意识。
最后，汉语的书写与发音没有完全联系，仍然是一种孤立的语言，就像打了围墙的公园，让最有决心和毅力的外国学习者沮丧。每一个字都要求单独识记，每一句话都要符合规范结构。
When in Rome?
Despite fascination with the world, the Chinese do not assimilate easily. China tries hard to be open -- road signs are bilingual, English is a passion, trade links are robust, macroeconomic policies during financial crises were constructive -- but, emotionally, the nation stands apart. Information is controlled. Defensive instincts militate against free and easy exchange of ideas. Until trust is established, foreigners are treated with polite suspicion. Manufacturers that acquire Western companies have difficulty integrating domestic and international management teams. The global footprint of China's state-controlled English-language news outlets is growing, but broadcasts are so dull international viewers tune out. The opening ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, impressive in scale and moving in ambition, lapsed into mawkish cliché when gears shifted from celebrating China's glory to preaching "One World, One Dream."
China's ability to leverage the assets of other cultures is peerless. Its superhighways are modeled after America's and major web portals are copycats of Western sites, tweaked for local users. The Party has also integrated itself into the fabric of the global trading system as a check against domestic weaknesses (for example, poor corporate governance, pliable standards of financial transparency). But, unless deemed "safe," foreigners are still confronted with awkward silences and robotic smiles. Bonding at the national level is a long ways off.
China will be an economic superpower only. There will be more than one tiger on the mountain.
何日到罗马？
尽管世界具有魅力，中国人却不那么容易吸收。中国努力开放——双语路牌，英语潮流，强劲的贸易联系，在经济危机中建设性的宏观调控——但是这个国家从情绪上站在一边。信息被控制。对思想的自由交流予以严密控制。在信任建立之前，外国人得到的待遇是怀疑的礼貌。收购西方公司的制造商在融合中外管理团队时存在困难。中国国家控制的英语新闻播报在全球发展，但是新闻如此沉闷，与国际观众的习惯格格不入。2008年北京奥运会的开幕式，在规模上令人惊叹，在激情上令人感动，用陈词滥调庆祝中国的荣耀，不过是说教的机器而已：“同一个世界，同一个梦想。”
中国利用其他文化的能力无可匹敌。它的高速公路模仿美国的形式，主要的门户网站调整了本土用户的需要，但不过是西方站点的翻版。党融入了全球贸易体系，但不过是对国内缺陷的补充（比如企业管理不善，财务透明度标准模糊）。但是，除非被视为“安全”，外国人收货的还是尴尬的沉默和机器人式的微笑。在国家层面消除沟通障碍还有很长的路走。
中国只会成为经济超级大国。世界仍然会是多极化的。
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-11-29 12:24
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