【中文标题】中国大陆——台湾大选的紧密核心
【原文标题】China at the heart of tight Taiwan poll race
【登载媒体】BBC
【来源地址】http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15942741
【译者】美丽河山
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3245844&page=1#pid5252807
【译文】
Six weeks ahead of Taiwan's presidential poll, three main candidates are primed to contest what is set to be a closely-watched race in the young democracy. 距离台湾总统大选还有6周，三个主要候选人首要面对的竞争是去争夺年轻选民所密切关注（的方向）。
Mr Ma won a landslide victory in 2008 but faces a much tougher fight this time 马英九在2008年赢得了压倒性优势但是这次他面对的是一次更加艰难地战斗。（图）
The island is at a crossroads in its relations with its rival, giant neighbour and biggest trade partner, China.
台湾岛目前正与它最大的对手，巨大的邻居同时也是最大的贸易伙伴——大陆处于关系决择的十字路口。
Ties have improved to the best they have been since the end of a civil war in 1949. But whether this continues depends on who is elected on 14 January.
自1949年国共内战结束后目前两地正处于联系最为紧密的时期，但是（这紧密的联系）是否会持续取决于谁会于1月14日当选。
According to several opinion polls, President Ma Ying-jeou has a slight lead over his main opponent, Tsai Ing-wen from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
根据多组民调显示，现任总统马英九比他的对手在野的民进党的蔡英文有微弱的优势。
But one survey by a respected polling centre on 28 November put Ms Tsai ahead on 50%, with Mr Ma trailing on 43%.
但是具一个较权威的调查中心于11月28日公布的调查显示，蔡英文以50%领先，而马英九以43%落后。
The race is expected to be very close, not least because veteran politician James Soong, of the People First Party, has decided to run.
这次的竞选结果预期将十分接近，至少因为老派政治家亲民党的宋楚瑜已决定参选。
A former official of the ruling Kuomintang party, Mr Soong favours closer ties with China, like Mr Ma. He could split the China-friendly vote as he did in 2000 and boost Ms Tsai's chances.
作为一位前国民党（目前的居统治地位的政党）官员，宋楚瑜更倾向于加强与大陆的联系，正如现在马英九所做的。就如2000年时一样宋楚瑜可能会分担来自亲大陆方面的选票，这将增大蔡英文的机会。
'Maintain status quo'
“维持现状”
Mr Ma and Ms Tsai both want good relations with China but have adopted different approaches.
马英九和蔡英文都想要与大陆维持良好的关系，但是采取了不同的方法。
Mr Ma is focusing on improving ties with Beijing first so as to enable the island to sign trade and other deals with other countries. Ms Tsai advocates building stronger ties with other countries, to avoid over-relying on China.
马英九主张首先加强与北京的联系来使台湾能够与他国签订贸易和其他方面的协议。而蔡英文主张与他国建立更强的联系来避免对大陆的过度依赖。
The way Beijing responds to them will also differ greatly. That is because while the ruling KMT agrees with Beijing that mainland China and Taiwan belong to the same China and is not opposed to eventual unification, Ms Tsai's party does not see Taiwan as a part of China and favours its formal independence.
北京对他们的回应也大不相同。这是因为目前执政的国民党在中国大陆和台湾同属一个中国，并且不反对最终统一的问题上赞同北京。但是蔡英文所在的政党并不认同台湾是中国的一部分而更倾向于正式的独立。
Beijing considers the island its province despite it being ruled independently since the end of the civil war in 1949. It has targeted 1,500 missiles at Taiwan as a warning against declaring formal independence.
虽然台湾自1949年国共内战结束后一直被独立统治，但是北京认为台湾是中国的一个省。大陆方面有1500颗导弹锁定台湾来作为对其宣布正式独立的警告。
If Ms Tsai is elected, many fear tensions that have subsided since Mr Ma was elected in 2008 could resurface.
如果蔡当选，自2008年马英九当选后平静下来的紧张和害怕的局势将会重燃。
"I'm worried Tsai Ing-wen will try to push for independence… The best thing is for the two sides to maintain the status quo. If they have a war, the people who will suffer are the ordinary people," said Hsu Wen-hsiang, a 51-year-old office worker.
“我很担心蔡英文会试图推行独立……最好的是维持两岸现状。如果发生战争，遭殃的将会是普通民众。”一个51岁的政府工作者，许文祥（音译）说。
At the same time, there are equally strong fears that Taiwan's sovereignty will be eroded if Mr Ma is re-elected. A son of mainland Chinese immigrants, he is still suspected by some people of working towards eventual unification with China.
同时，存在同样强烈的担忧认为如果马英九当选台湾的主权将会被侵蚀。一个大陆移民的后代仍会被怀疑从事于中国的最终统一。
They fear his policies could make Taiwan too economically dependent on and politically vulnerable to China.
他们害怕马英九的政策会使台湾的经济过多的依赖大陆，政治上也会对大陆显得脆弱。
Mr Ma's recent proposal that Taiwan reach a peace agreement with China within the next 10 years fuelled such worries.
为打消这种顾虑，马英九最近提议台湾与大陆达成一个在下个10年内和平的协定。
"If he is re-elected, a peace agreement with China will be signed and our sovereignty will be gone," said Hou Chao-tsai, a construction company owner. "For China to agree not to attack us, the peace deal will no doubt have to say that Taiwan is a part of China. And China will also control us economically."
“如果他连任，一个与大陆的和平协定会被签订，我们的主权也将会消失，”一个建筑公司的所有者候朝柴（音译）说，“为了让大陆同意不攻打我们，和平协议中毫无疑问需要声明台湾是中国的一部分。同时大陆也将控制我们的经济。”
Mr Ma has vowed not to discuss unification with China and repeatedly stated he will do nothing to jeopardise Taiwan's sovereignty.
马英九发誓绝不与大陆讨论统一，同时重复强调他不会做任何有害于台湾主权的行为。
If he is elected, relations with Beijing are expected to further improve, with the possibility of talks moving beyond economics into political areas. But the fear is Taiwan would have to make concessions.
如果他当选，（台湾）与北京的关系有望进一步改善，对话可能从经济领域推进到政治领域。但是令人担心的是台湾将不得不作出让步。
Ms Tsai says she is willing to talk to Beijing if its demands are reasonable
蔡说如果要求是合理的她愿意与北京对话。(图）
Policy 'failure'
政策“失败”
If Ms Tsai is elected, analysts say, there could be tensions or a stalemate. China has had poor relations with Ms Tsai's party.
分析家表示，如果蔡英文当选，（两岸）可能会出现紧张或僵化的局面。大陆目前与蔡所在的政党关系恶劣。
Even though Ms Tsai has been moderate in her statements regarding China, Beijing is suspicious of her, as she had drafted the theory calling for the two sides to have state-to-state relations. China strongly objects to Taiwan being treated as a country.
虽然蔡英文已在她对大陆的声明中表现的温和，但是北京对她依旧心存怀疑，因为她曾起草意见要求呼吁双方应是国家对国家的关系。中国强烈反对将台湾作为一个国家来对待。
"If Tsai Ing-wen is elected, [Chinese President] Hu Jintao will likely think his past policies have failed. He'd face pressure from the hawks in the Chinese Communist Party. Then China's next leader Xi Jinping will think Taiwan is very hard to deal with, and will try a tougher approach," said Sun Yang-ming, vice-president of the partly government-funded think-tank Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation.
“如果蔡英文当选，【中国国家主席】胡锦涛可能会认为他之前的政策失败了。他将面临来自中国共产党内鹰派的压力。那么，中国下任领导人习近平会认为台湾是非常难以打交道的，并将采取更加强硬的方式。”一定程度上由政府资助的海峡两岸交流智囊团促进基金副经理孙阳明（音译）说。
Former KMT stalwart James Soong's decision to run could split the China-friendly vote
前国民党坚定分子宋楚瑜决定参选，可能将分但来自亲大陆方面的选票。（图）
Beijing might not immediately take back the economic incentives it has given Taiwan, like increased tourism, direct flights and easier access to its markets. But Mr Sun said: "Exchanges will gradually decrease. A diplomatic war will resume."
北京可能并不会立即收回它给予台湾的经济激励，例如增加旅行团，直航和容易的进入大陆市场的途径。但是孙说：“交流将逐步减少，一场外交博弈将会重燃。”
Tensions between the two could also complicate Sino-US ties and affect security in the region, Mr Sun said.
双方的紧张局势也将会使中美关系复杂化，并将影响整个地区的安全，孙说。
"There are only two remaining flashpoints [in this region] - one is North Korea and the other is Taiwan. If tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, the United States, South East Asian countries, Japan and South Korea will all be affected," he said.
“仅有的两个导火索（此地区），一个是北朝鲜另一个就是台湾。如果台湾海峡紧张局势激化，美国，东南亚国家，日本和南朝鲜都将被影响。”他说。
Yet Ms Tsai is not expected to antagonise Beijing as former President Chen Shui-bian, also of the DPP, did with his statements and moves toward independence. She has said she is open to holding talks with China as long as it does not make unreasonable demands.
蔡英文目前尚未被预期会像同样来自民进党的前总统陈水扁一样通过声明和行动推行独立来对抗北京。她说只要不存在无理的要求，她愿意与北京保持对话。
Honest candidate
正直的候选人
It may surprise some that Mr Ma is fighting an uphill battle to hang on to his job because he won by a landslide in 2008.
一些人可能惊讶于马英九正在打一场艰难地战役来取得连任，因为在2008年时他曾取得压倒性的胜利。
But his term coincided with the global financial crisis. Economic growth slowed under him and foreign investment fell.
但是他的任期碰巧赶上国际金融危机。在他的领导下（台湾）经济增长放缓，外国投资下滑。
While closer trade ties with China helped the island, it also fuelled a flight of capital and jobs to China. The trend began years ago, even when relations were tense, but some blame his lifting of a cap on investments for making it worse.
虽然同大陆更加紧密的贸易关系帮助了台湾，但也刺激了资本和工作向大陆的逃逸。这个趋势在几年前就开始了，甚至在（两岸）关系紧张的时期，但是一些人指责他提高投资上限的举措使问题变得更加严重。
Economic trends have also worked against Mr Ma. The income gap between the rich and poor is at its widest in decades. Ordinary people's wages are still considered low and unemployment is high. Property prices remain high.
经济走向同样不利于马英九。贫富差距达到了十年内的最大值。普通民众的工资底下，失业率居高不下。物价也持续高位。
Mr Ma's popularity has also been dented by recent controversies, including his administration spending $7m on a National Day musical that was only staged twice.
马的支持率也因为最近的争论受损，包括他的政府花费7百万用于只上演了两次的国庆音乐会。
Some people believe Ms Tsai's popularity is due less to her credentials than Mr Ma's inability to truly improve the lives of ordinary people. Although she served as vice premier under another president, she has never held an elected post and some find her policies unclear.
一些人相信蔡英文的支持率未由于她的履历而少于马英九，因为马英九在真正改善普通民主生活上的无能。虽然她曾任其他总统的任期内出任副总统，但是她从未参与竞选，一些人认为她的政策并不明确。
But the core of Mr Ma's problems may be his inability to convince some voters that he will protect Taiwan's sovereignty - something his campaign manager recently acknowledged.
但是马英九所面对的核心问题可能是他在说服某些选民相信他会保护台湾主权问题上表现的无能——他的参选经纪人最近才认识到的事。
Back in 2008, many of the people who voted for him were disillusioned by the corruption allegations against the last president, the DPP's Mr Chen.
回溯2008年，许多人选择马英九的原因是，他们已经因为针对上一任来自民进党的统治者陈水扁的腐败的控诉而（对民进党）感到绝望。
Some of those voters traditionally favoured the DPP. They voted for Mr Ma because they felt he was an honest politician, not because they liked the KMT.
这些人中有一部分习惯上倾向于民进党。他们选马英九是因为他们认为他是一个正直的政治家，并不是因为他们喜欢国民党。
Now that Ms Tsai has repaired the image of the DPP, these voters may be returning to their preferred party - one they feel will better protect the island's sovereignty.
现在蔡英文修复了民进党的形象，这些选民可能回归他们喜欢的政党——他们认为将更好地保护台湾主权的那一个。
Analysts say that in the remaining weeks, anything can happen. Any mistakes in campaign strategies by one candidate could tip the votes in the other's favour.
分析人士表示，在接下来的几周，任何事情都可能发生。一个候选人任何竞选战略上的失误都会为他人做嫁衣。
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发表于 2011-12-2 19:40
