中国工厂惨淡经营，前景更堪忧

彩虹族

【DAWN111212】中国工厂惨淡经营，前景更堪忧
http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3254388&fromuid=287770
【中文标题】
【原文标题】China workshops struggle, but tougher times ahead
【登载媒体】DAWN
【来源地址】http://www.dawn.com/2011/12/12/china-workshops-struggle-but-tougher-times-ahead.html
【译    者】彩虹族

【翻译方式】人工

【声    明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
BEIJING: A broad and bruising downturn is sweeping through China’s giant manufacturing sector, ensnaring thousands of factories already fighting for survival in the face of plunging profit margins.
While the misery has not yet reached levels seen in 2008 when global financial turmoil caused trade to seize up, Chinese exporters across industries are battling hard times as Europe’s crisis and tight credit conditions at home pummel sales.
北京：影响广泛而猛烈的衰退正在席卷中国巨大的制造业，面对急促下降的利润率，数以千计的工厂在生存线上苦苦挣扎。
但其惨状还不及2008的情况。当年，全球金融危机导致贸易系统失灵，跨产业的中国出口商努力对抗欧洲经济危机和国内受信用紧缩情况打击的销售量的艰难时世。
The tough times are clear from China’s trade data released this weekend, which showed exports growth in November at its most sluggish in two years. Sales to Europe, China’s biggest market, rose in single digits for the third straight month; a sharp slowdown considering growth averaged more than 18 per cent in the first eight months of 2011.
“I expect next year to be even worse,” said Danny Lau, chairman of Hong Kong’s Small and Medium Enterprises Association, whose members include China factory owners. He said factories already report a 15 per cent annual drop in orders.

中国这周发布的贸易数据清楚的表明了困难时期，十一月的出口增长是近两年来最缓慢的一次。中国最大的出口市场欧洲，连续三个月内只增长了一位数；就出口增长率而言，其跌幅超出了2011年前8个月出口增长率的18%这一平均值。

“预计明年情况更加糟”，香港中小型企业协会主席丹尼刘说道，该协会成员包括中国工厂持有者。他说工厂已经报告了年订单15%的下滑。
“It’s like the whole of Europe has no water, no money. If this continues, it will be extremely troublesome for us.”
Most think the worst can be avoided if Europe survives its troubles, but the stakes are nonetheless high: millions of factory jobs are on the line and retrenchment would bring unwanted social instability to China ahead of a once-a-decade transition of China’s top leadership due late next year.
Already, a wave of industrial disputes has hit factories around the country, from the manufacturing heartland Pearl River Delta in southern Guangdong province to the Yangtze river Delta near the country’s financial capital Shanghai in the east.
Beijing is not taking any chances. It signalled a shift in monetary policy in November by cutting for the first time in three years the amount of cash banks have to keep in reserve to soothe a local credit crunch mostly punishing smaller firms.

“似乎整个欧洲没有水也没有钱。如果这种情况持续下去，对我们来说相当麻烦。”

大部分人认为如果欧洲度过危机，就能避免最糟的情况，但风险仍然高：无数工厂濒临倒闭，财政紧缩可能会在十年一次的改选前带来意想不到的社会秩序混乱，明年底中国最高领导全将交接。

从位于广东省的南方制造业腹地珠三角到靠近中国东部金融中心上海的长江三角洲，全国各地的工厂频频上演劳资纠纷。

北京没有冒险。11月，三年来第一次切断银行不得不储备来平衡地区信贷紧缩的现金，主要是惩罚小公司，这预示着金融政策的转换。

It is not clear if the policy turnaround can stem factory closures in China, the world’s top exporter in 2010, but Lau is not hopeful. 12 other company officials Reuters spoke to from sectors ranging from steel to textile were also not optimistic.
China may use a downswing to push manufacturers up the value chain by letting labour-intensive factories shut to make way for more capital-intensive ones, Lau said.
“Officials tell you they won’t sacrifice us, but in reality they are sacrificing us,” he said. “There’s nothing we can do.”
On the ground, few businesses appear immune to a swooning economy — even those that rely on domestic demand — thanks to massive increases in the price of raw materials and the inability of firms to pass them onto price-savvy consumers.

现在还不明确，政策的转变能否阻止作为2010年世界最大出口商的中国工厂接二连三的倒闭。路透社采访了12位公司高层，来自钢铁业到纺织业等行业的12位公司高管，他们对前景都不乐观。

中国可能会利用推动制造商的价值链的下降，通过关闭劳动密集性工厂，让位给更多的资产密集型工厂，丹尼刘说道。

“官员告诉你们，他们不会牺牲我们，但事实上，他们就是在牺牲我们，”他说，“我们束手无策。”

事实上，很少有企业表现的对经济低迷有免疫力——及时是内销企业——由于原材料价格的大幅度上涨，公司无法使精明的消费者接受产品。
Price increases among China’s raw materials suppliers have averaged 9.7 per cent over the last nine months. Consumer goods makers have had to absorb more than half of that, managing an average price increase of just 4.4 per cent in the same period.
As was the case in 2008, manufacturers high up the supply chain such as raw material producers, were first to feel the headwinds of cooling demand.
“Our orders for December will fall 10 to 15 per cent from November as customers’ demand has shrunk,” said an official at China’s Maanshan Iron & Steel, one of China’s largest state-owned steelmakers.
“We are trying to accept small bookings, such as even a 50-tonne deal in an effort to retain the market, but this also leads to higher cost.”

在过去的九个月，中国原材料供应商的价格平均上涨9.7%。消费商品制造商不得不自己承担一半以上的成本，努力使得同期平均价格上涨保持在4.4%。

2008年的情况，制造商高增长供应链，例如原材料供应商，最先感到了需求下降的阻力。

“我们十二月的订单将会下降10到15个百分点从十一月份，随着消费者需求的缩水，”中国马鞍山钢铁集团的一位官员说，该集团是中国最大的国有钢铁制造业之一。

“我们在努力接受小订单，甚至50吨的交易，努力保持市场，但是这样也导致了更高的成本。”

In better times, large Chinese steel mills typically take bookings of at least a few thousand tonnes. The gloom percolates down the supply chain. Taiyuan Heavy Co Ltd, which sells machines to Chinese factories including steel makers, said demand is flat because its customers are struggling.
With businesses suffering, workers are shopping less, and firms from textile mills to car makers feel the squeeze. Alibaba.com, China’s biggest e-commerce firm that sells everything from doors to sweets, had its worst quarter in almost two years from July to September. It expects Chinese consumption to take “considerable time” to rebound.
Textile makers are also worried. “We are not optimistic about next year,” said Chen Shiwei at Jiangsu Miaotong Textile Co. Ltd, a textile mill in China’s eastern province of Jiangsu. “Production will definitely slow.” Chinese cotton prices already betray the strain, down 40 per cent from February’s record peaks.
To be sure, the downtrend is not hitting all firms evenly. Those favoured by Beijing in subsidised, “strategic” sectors such as green technology have a buffer from economic anxieties, said Keith Olson, director at Environmental Investment Services Asia Ltd, a regional fund focused on environment and clean energy.
Luxury consumption is another bright spot. Diamond seller Pluczenik Group reckons that China’s growing rich make diamonds “a necessity, not a luxury purchase”.

在繁荣时期，中国大型钢铁厂通常接受至少千吨以上的订单。低迷的经济渗透到了供应链。太原重工股份有限公司卖机器给包括钢铁制造厂的中国工厂，说因为消费者很犹豫导致需求很低。

企业遭遇困境，工人就减少消费，无论是纺织业还是汽车制造业的公司都感觉到了压力。中国最大的电子商务公司，从门到糖果什么都卖的阿里巴巴，在7月份到9月份间，遭遇到近两年来最差的季度。这预示着中国消费需要“大量的时间”来恢复。

纺织业制造商也忧心忡忡。“我们非常担心明年的情况”，江苏妙通纺织有限公司的陈世伟说道。“生产明显下降。” 中国棉花的价格已经证实了这一压力。棉价和二月份的历史最高值相比下降了40%。可以肯定的是，下降趋势没有席卷所有的公司。那些得益于补贴的北京“策略”部门，例如绿色科技从经济紧张中得以缓冲，环境投资服务亚洲公司的基思·奥尔森说，该公司的区域基金重点在环境和清洁能源上。

奢侈品消费是另一个好机会。钻石商Pluczenik集团认为中国越来越多的富人使钻石成为“必需品，而不是一种奢侈的行为。”

Jigong

中国还有可行的措施，只要有正确的政策，大家咬紧牙关，一定能渡过难关！

春天的雨

明摆的措施，人民币大幅贬值就可解救工厂！或者在大幅贬值的同时使用固定汇率！

lyycc

根本原因不还是美国经济危机和欧洲的债务危机？