|
|
【福布斯12.18】中国经济头号问题
http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3260605&fromuid=287770
【中文标题】中国经济头号问题
【原文标题】The No. 1 Problem of the Chinese Economy
【登载媒体】福布斯
【来源地址】http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2011/12/18/the-no-1-problem-of-the-chinese-economy/
【译 者】彩虹族
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】 
China’s Central Economic Work Conference concluded on Wednesday. The gathering, which brought together all of Beijing’s stakeholders on the matter, was the last major economic policy meeting before next year’s 18th Communist Party Congress, and observers were looking for evidence of a major shift away from the central government’s efforts to restrain growth.
China’s goal next year, we were told, will be “making progress while maintaining stability.” “Stability,” according to the Conference statement, “means to maintain basically steady macro-economic policy, relatively fast economic growth, stable consumer prices and social stability.”
The statement was more pro-growth than last year’s, but most observers just ignored Beijing’s bland words. As Zhou Hao of ANZ in Shanghai told Reuters, “We should not read too much into what the government has said, but pay more attention to what it will do.”
What Beijing has in fact been doing is taking steps to stimulate the economy. In November, the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, cut the reserve requirement ratio for 20 co-operative banks by a half point. The limited move was followed this month by half-point reductions in the ratio for both large and small banks. Not surprisingly, bank loans in November were up from forecasts, confirming that an easing policy is now in effect.
Yet the change is only minor. The oft-quoted Fan Gang, director of China’s National Economic Research Institute, yesterday called the current slowdown a “healthy correction.” Fan, who sometimes acts as the State Council’s unofficial spokesman, also warned us not to expect any big stimulus program. As he indicated, Beijing’s policymakers are satisfied with their general direction. In the words of Tim Condon of ING Bank in Singapore, decision-makers “are just staying the course.”
Should the course be changed? The Chinese economy was indeed racing too fast earlier this year, but now it is growing in low single digits or even contracting. These days, nothing—exports, consumption, industrial orders, property prices—is headed in the right direction. And the problems will inevitably get worse as the rest of the world stumbles.
The last time the global economy tumbled, Chinese leaders took action, decisively and quickly. In July 2008, the Politburo adopted measures intended to boost exports and in November of that year the State Council announced its massive stimulus plan. This time, Chinese leaders seem tentative.
There are three possible reasons for their relative inaction. First, they can be underestimating the severity of the situation. That’s unlikely, however. Chinese leaders can be accused of many things, but obliviousness—at least when it comes to their economy—is not one of them.
Second, they may realize that, despite the accelerating downturn, there is not much they can do. In response to the last downturn, they increased the country’s money supply beyond reasonable levels, thereby making monetary policy ineffective, and applied too much fiscal stimulus, burdening banks and lower-tier governments. They can implement another round of stimulus, but that would only make current problems—principally inflation and the property bubbles—only worse and buy them at most 24 months. As Fan Gang implied, perhaps they have decided that now is the time to take the medicine.
Third, Chinese leaders may be prevented from acting effectively by the country’s once-in-a-decade political transition, which formally begins next fall and continues for perhaps two years. Unlike 2008, when the Communist Party and central government moved fast, the current paralysis at the apex of Beijing means that technocrats can now adopt only modest and inadequate steps.
Premier Wen Jiabao, China’s economic chief, never seemed to have the political support to adopt obviously necessary measures to reorient the economy toward consumption and away from exports and investment. This move should have been initiated in the benign times in the middle of last decade, when growth was solid, the external environment looked favorable, and the last transition had been completed.
Now, conditions are not so good. Europe is falling apart, and a frustrated international community appears unwilling to lend Beijing a hand. China’s problems are still manageable, but they require strong leadership.
There are reports that Vice Premier Li Keqiang, slated to become premier in early 2013, is already starting to exercise authority over the economy, perhaps chairing meetings but definitely helping to make decisions. That’s not a hopeful sign as he has built up a solid record of failure in prior stints governing Henan and Liaoning provinces.
Yet in China’s faction-ridden politics, where each grouping is represented in the top leadership, Li will glide into what could become the most consequential post in the Politburo Standing Committee. He has the backing of President and General Secretary Hu Jintao and, whether or not qualified to run the world’s second-largest economy, Li seems to be sharing duties with Wen Jiabao, who is not in the same faction as Hu and Li. Because Chinese handovers take an extraordinary amount of time, it could be late 2014 before the new leadership team is finally settled in. By then, however, it will be too late.
中国中央经济工作会议于本周三（新闻发表于12-18号，译者注）闭幕。这次囊括了北京所有利益相关者的集会，是明年第十八次中国代表大会之前的最后一次主要经济政策会议，观察员从中央政府努力抑制增长中寻找重大转变的势头。
我们被告知，中国明年的目标将是“稳中求进”。根据大会声明，“稳”就是“要本保持宏观经济政策基本稳定，保持经济平稳较快发展，保持物价总水平基本稳定，保持社会大局稳定。”（新闻原话，译者注。） 声明比去年更有益于经济增长，但是多数观察员忽略了北京柔和的措辞。澳新银行上海分行的周浩在路透社的采访中说道，“我们不应该太多解读政府所说的话，而该更加关心政府将会做些什么。” 北京实际上正在采取措施刺激经济。11月，中国人民银行，中央银行将20家合作银行的存款准备金率削减了半个百分点。紧随限制行动之后，这个月各大小银行削减半个百分点的比率。毫不奇怪，从预测来看，11月份的银行贷款到达顶峰，证实宽松政策现在生效。 但改变仍旧太小。广为引用的樊纲，国民经济研究所所长，昨天将最近的经济放缓称为“稳步的回调”。有时也作为国务院的非官方发言人的樊纲，提醒我们不要期望任何大的刺激计划。他指出，北京的决策人满意他们的常规方向。荷兰银行的蒂姆·康顿在新加坡的谈话中说，决策者“只是坚持到底”。 应该改变路线吗？今年最初的时候，中国经济的确发展很快，但现在经济呈现个位数发展甚至紧缩。这些日子来，没有什么是朝着正确的方向发展的——出口，消费，工厂订单，房价。作为世界问题的一部分，这些问题不可避免地恶化。 全球经济上一次暴跌时，中国领导人及时果断采取措施。2008年7月，中共中央政治局采取措施，旨在促进出口，今年11月，国务院宣布大规模刺激方案。这一次，中国领导人犹豫不决。 他们最近的不作为有三种原因。第一，他们可能低估了局势的严峻性。但那是不可能的。中国领导人在很多事情上都受到指责，但是明显——至少当涉及到他们的经济——不是其中之一。 第二，他们可能意识到，尽管下滑加速，但是他们无能为力。面对上次下滑，他们将人民币增值超出合理的水平，一次是的货币政策无效，采用过多财政刺激，加重银行负担，低层政府。他们能实施又一轮刺激方案，但是这可能只会使得当前的问题（主要是通货膨胀和楼市泡沫）更加严重，买它们最多24个月。樊纲暗示，可能他们已经决定现在是时候采取措施了。 第三中国领导人可能受国家十年一度的政治交接影响（交接正是从明年秋天开始，可能持续两年）。不同于2008年，当时共产党和中央政府运转快，当前北京最高层的无能意味着技术官员现在只能采取轻微不足的不走。 中国财政首长温家宝总理，似乎从未获得政治支持采取明显必需的措施调整，从出口和投资转向消费。此举本应该在上个十年中期就发起，当时经济增长稳健，外部环境良好，而且上一次交接完成。 现在，情况不太乐观。欧洲分奔离析，泄气的国际社会似乎不愿意帮助北京。中国的问题仍旧可以控制，但是他们需要强有力的领导。 据报道，副总理李克强最有可能当选2013年的总理，他已经开始行使经济权利，可能主持会议但肯定帮助做决策。这不是一个充满希望的标志，因为在他之前就职于河南省和辽宁省已经建立了坚实的失败记录。 然而中国派系深重的政治，每个组织代表最高领导层，李克强将会进入政治局常委的最相应的职位。他有总书记胡锦涛的支持，是否任命接管世界上第二大经济体，李克强似乎都会同温家宝共同承担责任，温家宝不属于胡锦涛和李克强的集团。因为中国的交接需要大量时间，可能要到2014年新的领导队伍才会最终确定下来。然而到那时，为时已晚。
|
评分
-
1
查看全部评分
-
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-12-21 15:52
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2011-12-21 19:39
