【华尔街日报12.28】韩寒引发了中国关于”革命“的话题

lilyma06

在
中国，向执政党共产党的至高权力发出的任何挑战长期以来都受到压制，但是对于近期发生在网络的一场关于中国是否应该进行一场革命的热烈讨论，中国政府却似乎采取了容忍的态度。

中国广东省乌坎村村民把政府官员和警察赶出村子并自己选举村级政府的行为成了媒体争相报道的头条新闻。数天后，中国人气颇旺的博客作者韩寒发表了几篇内容激进的博文，从多个方面讨论了中国革命、民主和自由。



韩寒不但是一位公共知识分子、一名赛车手，还是一个“万人迷”。他坚持认为，前捷克斯洛伐克1989年的和平起义──“天鹅绒革命”(Velvet Revolution)不会发生在中国，中国这个世界上人口最多的国家也不会在短时间内实现民主。相反地，他认为行动人士应当推动切实可行的小规模改良，从而以这种方式实现变革。

韩寒的博文在某些方面与共产党的观点是一致的，比如，中国还没有做好民主的准备，以及中国若发生革命很可能是要流血的。他在《谈革命》一文里写道：“当街上的人开车交会时都能关掉远光灯了，就能放心革命了”。他还说，中产阶级很可能会倒霉。“在革命的洪流里，你拥有一个苹果手机，你是开摩托车的，甚至你会上网，你平时买报纸，吃肯德基，你都算是有钱人，甚至是有能力在互联网上阅读到这篇文章的人，都是充满着原罪的被革命对象。”

他在另一篇题为《说民主》的文章里表示，共产党的组织已经非常庞大，推翻共产党不一定就能从根本上革除中国的弊端。

他写道：“党组织庞大到了一定的程度，它就是人民本身，而人民就是体制本身，所以问题并不是要把共产党给怎么怎么样，共产党只是一个名称，体制只是一个名称。”

有人嘲笑韩寒是党的宣传员，声称他是收了政府的钱才在目前这个对中国来说无疑很敏感的时候出来阻碍民主和革命。韩寒在文章里承认有人对他提出批评，但他对此并不理睬，说自己的论据站得住脚。

考虑到这几个月来中国的作家、艺术家和其他人士承受的压力越来越大，韩寒的观点也许并不让人觉得意外。过去一周里，两位持异议的作家分别被判入狱10年左右。韩寒在最后一篇博文《要自由》的末尾处谈到了这些担忧，并暗示活动人士的改革目标或许是争取到更大的言论自由，而不是推翻整个国家体系。

韩寒写道：“我相信我们这一代人的品质，所以我相信这些迟早会到来。……虽然我觉得自由未必是很多人的第一追求，但没有人愿意常常感觉恐惧不安。”

截至周三，这些博文并没有被中国互联网审查者屏蔽掉。而此时，恰逢中国处于一个不同寻常的时期。除了乌坎村的抗议活动外，中国政府官员还在设法解决民众关心的地方政府腐败成风以及空气和水污染等一系列问题。同时，北京也在奋力压制一个极不和谐的网上对话。微博和其它新的媒体传播平台给了中国民众一个表达忧虑的扩音器，因此北京方面担心地方争端有时可在几小时内通过网络引发全国的关注。

尽管中国高层领导人的想法很难揣测，但对乌坎事件的反应仍然显示出了中共高层的忧虑。值得一提的是，该事件引起了广东省高级官员的注意，包括广东省党委副书记朱明国。朱明国与广东省委书记汪洋（中国政界一位相对开明的官员）有着密切的工作关系。汪洋在明年举行的10年一次的换届选举中将竞争一个拥有至高权力的中央政治局常委的位置。毫无疑问，北京的中共领导人正在注视着他，看他在麻烦不断的广东省面临着种种问题的时候如何解决乌坎危机。

官方媒体《广州日报》称，在周一的一次会议上，朱明国描述了广东省民众日益提高的权利意识，以及当地官员没能满足村民需要如何导致了形式越来越极端的抗议事件的发生。

韩寒的博文在网上引发了广泛且相对罕见的关于革命带来的好处和危险的大讨论。鉴于最近几个月作家们面临着日渐上升的压力，这场辩论格外显得非同寻常。

作为对韩寒的回应，有着逾800万粉丝的中国知名的房地产开发商潘石屹在微博中发问：“革命到底是什么意思？革命是和谐？还是反革命是和谐？在这种混乱的情况下，只能不写。”

从这条微博和它在网上的影响可以看出，革命这个字眼在近些年几乎从中国的公众舆论中消失之后，如何再次成为一个引发热烈讨论的话题。
Blogger Ignites Debate Over Chinese ‘Revolution’
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/12/28/blogger-ignites-debate-over-chinese-revolution/

ReutersHan Han at a news conference last year.

China – which has long suppressed any challenge to the supremacy of the ruling Communist Party – appears to be tolerating a spirited online discussion over whether the nation should have a revolution.
Days after residents from the southern Guangdong village of Wukan drew headlines by throwing officials and police out of town and electing their own government, popular Chinese blogger Han Han published several provocative posts examining the prospects for revolution, democracy and “freedom” in China.
The pop intellectual, race car driver and general heartthrob argues China won’t witness a Velvet Revolution – a reference to the former Czechoslovakia’s peaceful revolt in 1989 – and that democracy won’t appear in the world’s most populous country anytime soon. Instead, activists should push for smaller, tangible reforms as a means to bring change. (The Chinese versions of the essays are available here and English translations are available here.)
Mr. Han’s posts in some regards stick to the Communist Party’s line: China isn’t ready democracy and that  a revolution in China would more than likely be a bloody one.  “When Chinese car drivers know to turn off their high beam lights when they pass each other, we can safely proceed with the revolution,” he writes in a post called “On Revolution.” Adding that the middle class would likely suffer, he says, “if you own an Apple iPhone, or you drive a motorcycle, or you know how to use the Internet, or you read newspapers regularly, or you eat at KFC, you are the rich criminal who will be the target of the revolution.”
He argues in another post called “On Democracy” that the Communist Party has grown so large that its overthrow would not necessarily cure the country’s ills either.
“When the party organization reaches a particular size, it is just the people itself,” he writes.  “So the issue is not at all how to deal with the Communist Party. The Communist Party is just a name. The system is just a name.”
Mr. Han is derided by some as a propagandist, and accused of being paid by the state to discourage democracy and revolution at what is undoubtedly a sensitive time for Beijing. In his essays, he acknowledges the criticism but shrugs it off, saying his arguments are sound.
Perhaps Mr. Han’s views are unsurprising given the growing pressure writers, artists and others in China have come under in recent months. Over the past week, two veteran dissident writers were sentenced roughly a decade in prison each.  Mr. Han confronts these concerns toward the end of his final post, “On Freedom,” where he suggests greater freedom of expression is an area where activists could target reform as opposed to overthrowing the entire system.
“I believe in the quality of our generation and therefore I believe that these (freedoms) will arrive sooner or later,” Mr. Han writes. “Although I don’t believe that freedom is the first pursuit for everyone, no one wants to be constantly fearful and anxious.”
The posts, which weren’t blocked by Internet censors as of Wednesday, come at an unusual time. In addition to the Wukan revolt, officials are grappling with wide-ranging citizen concerns, from rampant local corruption to air and water pollution.  Beijing at the same time is struggling to quell a wildly dissonant online conversation. Microblogs and other new media have given people across China a bullhorn for their concerns, and Beijing worries how local disputes can galvanize national attention online sometimes in a matter of hours.
While it’s difficult to divine what China’s top leaders are thinking, the reaction to Wukan suggests high-ranking Communist Party leaders were concerned. In particular, it has drawn attention from ranking officials in Guangdong, including Zhu Mingguo, the province’s deputy party secretary. Mr. Zhu works closely with party secretary Wang Yang, a relative liberal in Chinese politics. Mr. Wang is vying for a spot on party’s all powerful Politburo Standing Committee during a once-a-decade leadership swap next year, and party leaders in Beijing are no doubt watching how he resolves the Wukan crisis among other bubbling disputes across the feisty province of Guangdong.
In a meeting on Monday, Mr. Zhu described a growing rights consciousness in Guangdong and how a failure for local officials to meet the demands of citizens could spur increasingly extreme forms of protests, according to the state-run Guangzhou Daily newspaper.
Mr. Han’s posts have spurred a wide, and relatively rare, discussion online about the benefits and pitfalls of a revolution in China. The debate is particularly unusual given the increasing pressure faced by writers in recent months. A crackdown against writers, lawyers, artists and others perceived as a threat to the state began in February following anonymous online calls for an overthrow of the Communist Party. The crackdown continues alongside ongoing unrest across the Arab world and, more recently in Russia.
“In the end, what is the meaning of revolution?” asked Pan Shiyi, one of China’s best-known property developers, on his Weibo account, where he has more than eight million followers, in response to Mr. Han. “Is revolution harmonious? Or is counter-revolution harmonious?  In this chaotic situation, I just can’t write.”
The post, and subsequent online fallout, underscores how revolution in China is a debate that’s raging once again – something almost entirely absent from the public discourse of recent years.



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paoding

华尔街日报当然需要漠视"占领华尔街"才行的。。。;P