这个曾经发明了指南针、火药和印刷术的国家在发明创造方面也正与美国抗衡。我们估计2011年间中国公民所获得的专利权在数量上超过了美国公民。尽管这些中国专利的质量仍有商榷的余地,但它们毫无疑问会不断提升。世界经济论坛所发布的“世界竞争力报告”对142个国家进行了评估,在数学和科学教育质量方面将中国排在了第31位,超过了名列第51位的美国。中国的外部经济重创同样使得美国经济受到了牵连。中国的国外不动产净额为2万亿,而美国的净负债额却达到了2.5万亿。
The chart shows our predictions for when China will overtake America on several other measures. Official figures show that China’s consumer spending is currently only one-fifth of that in America (although that may be understated because of China’s poor statistical coverage of services). Based on relative growth rates over the past five years it will remain smaller until 2023. Retail sales are catching up much faster, and could exceed America’s by 2014. In that same year China also looks set to become the world’s biggest importer—a huge turnaround from 2000, when America’s imports were six times those of China.
图中给出了中国将会在更多其他指标上超越美国的具体年份。官方数据显示中国的消费支出实际上只有美国的1/5(尽管这可能是由于中国数据覆盖服务系统的不完善所导致的低估)。就过去五年的相关增长率来看,即使到了2023年,这个数值仍会低于美国。零售额的增长率速度更快,并有望在2014年超过美国。仍然是在今年,中国会成为世界最大的进口国—这是自2000年以来的一个重大转变;2000年时,美国的进口率是中国的6倍。
Find even more indicators and adjust the figures to make your own predictions using our
interactive chart
找出更多指标并并调整数值,用我们的Excel表格的交互模式来制作你自己的预测表。
What about GDP, the most widely used measure of economic power? The IMF predicts that China’s GDP will surpass America’s in 2016 if measured on a purchasing-power parity (PPP) basis, which adjusts for the fact that prices are lower in poorer countries. But America will only really be eclipsed when China’s GDP outstrips it in dollar terms, converted at market-exchange rates.
那么在GDP(国民生产总值),这一被运用得最广泛的经济实力指标上,又有什么表现呢?国际基金货币组织预测,如果以购买力水平为基准(该指标由于在经济较为落后的国家物价较低而做出调整),中国的GDP将会在2016年超过美国。但是只有在市场交易率上按照美元计算时,中国的GDP才能在真正意义上超过美国。
In 2011 America’s GDP was roughly twice as big as China’s, down from eight times bigger in 2000. To predict how quickly that gap might be closed, The Economist has updated its interactive online chart (also here) which allows you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. Our best guess is that annual real GDP growth over the next decade averages 7.75% in China (down from 10.5% over the past decade) and 2.5% in America; that inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averages 4% and 1.5% respectively; and that the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. If so, then China will overtake America in 2018. That is a year earlier than our prediction in December 2010 because China’s GDP in dollar terms increased by more than expected in 2011.
2011年,美国的GDP是中国的2倍,而2000年时是中国的8倍。为了预测出这一差距多久之后会消失,《经济学人报》更新了它的交互模式在线表格(如图),这个表格允许网民在线填入自己对于中美GDP增长的预测值、通货膨胀率和人民币兑美元的汇率。我们的最佳猜想是,中国每年的GDP真实增长值,即未来十年平均值是7.75%(前十年中这一数值是10.5%),美国是2.5%;中国和美国的通货膨胀率(按照GDP的消除通货膨胀指数估算)的平均值分布是4%和1.5%;人民币在这一年内升值了3%。按照这一预测,中国将在2018年超越美国。这个预期时间比我们在2010年12月给出的预期时间要早,因为2011年中国的GDP按美元换算后上升幅度比预期得要高。
Second place is for winners
赢家位居第二
Even if China became the world’s biggest economy by 2018, Americans would remain much richer, with a GDP per head four times that in China. But Rupert Hoogewerf, the founder of the annual Hurun Report on China’s richest citizens, reckons that it may already have more billionaires. His latest survey identified 270 dollar billionaires but the true total, he says, is probably double that because many Chinese are secretive about their wealth. According to the Forbes rich list, America has 400 billionaires or so.
由于美国的GDP每年都会领先于中国4倍,即使在2018年中国成为世界最大的经济国,美国仍然比中国富裕得多。但是胡润中国富豪的年度报道创始人Rupert Hoogewerf认为,中国已经有了更多的亿万富翁。他的最新调查表明中国有270位亿万美元富翁,但是他认为实际人数可能要翻一番,因为许多中国人不会透露自己的实际财富。据福布斯的富翁名单显示,美国有400多名亿万富翁。
America still tops a few league tables by a wide margin. Its stockmarket capitalisation is four times bigger than China’s and it has more than twice as many firms in the Fortune global 500, which lists the world’s biggest companies by revenue. Last but not least, America spends five times as much on defence as China does, and even though China’s defence budget is expanding faster, on recent growth rates America will remain top gun until 2025.
在一些排行榜上,美国仍然领先于中国。美国的股票投资额是中国的的4倍,而且在全球500强企业(按照大宗收入额上榜的世界最大的公司)里,美国企业的数量是中国企业的2倍。还有一点不容忽视,现阶段美国在国防上的支出是中国的5倍,而且尽管中国的国防预算在持续增长,但就最近的增长率来看美国在2025的国防支出仍会名列榜首。
Being the biggest economy in the world does offer advantages. It helps to ensure military superiority and gives a country more say in fixing international rules. Historically, the biggest economy has become the issuer of the main reserve currency, which is why America has also been able to borrow more cheaply than it otherwise would. But it would be a mistake for American leaders to try to block China’s rise. China’s rapid growth benefits the whole global economy. It is better to be number two in a fast-growing world than top dog in a stagnant one.
成为世界第一经济大国的好处显而易见。这个位置不仅确保了军事上的优势地位,而且在制定国际条例时享有更多的发言权。历史上最大经济国往往是储备货币的发行者,这就是为什么美国能在借外债时比其他国家享受更加优惠的价格。美国领导人试图阻止中国的崛起是一个错误的做法。中国的迅速发展使全球经济受益。而且,在这个发展迅速而又遭遇经济停滞的时代,位居第二比名列榜首更为可观。