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本帖最后由 花落无声 于 2012-1-5 16:03 编辑
【中文标题】全球恐怖势力：2012年潜在热点一览
【原文标题】Global terror: Potential flashpoints in 2012[/col
【登载媒体】BBC
【来源地址】http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-16399275
【译者】花落无声
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3276736-1-1.html
【译文】
With much of the Middle East in flux, suspicions intensifying over Iran's nuclear ambitions, a deepening political crisis in Pakistan, and the escalation of jihadist violence in Nigeria there are plenty of potential flashpoints in the year ahead.
中东大部分地区的动荡不定、对伊朗核野心的怀疑的逐渐加深、巴基斯坦更深的政治危机、在尼日利亚的伊斯兰圣战者暴力的增加，未来的一年里有不少的爆发点。
There is a distinction between localised conflicts that are largely contained within borders and the kind of global, transnational terrorism that produced events such as 9/11, the Madrid bombings and, in the eyes of many, destructive military ventures like the US-led invasion of Iraq.
一般在边界内发生的局部冲突和那种制造了911事件、马德里爆炸案以及在大家眼中毁灭性的军事行动——比如美军入侵伊拉克——这种全球的、跨国的恐怖主义，这两种是有区别的。
Afghanistan
2011 was another violent year for Afghanistan, with more than 2,000 civilians killed in the first 10 months of the year. The drivers for that violence - insurgency, gun battles, air strikes and criminality - are not about to disappear but the picture is changing. Nato (Isaf) is increasingly positioning itself for the withdrawal of its combat forces by the end of 2014, accelerating the training of Afghan security forces in the hopes they will be robust enough to maintain a semblance of national security and keep al-Qaeda out.
阿富汗
对阿富汗来说，2011年又是充满暴力的一年，这一年的前10个月里就有超过2000个平民被杀。暴力的媒介——暴动、枪战、空袭和犯罪——不太可能很快消失，但整个状况在改变。北约（Isaf）正在逐渐准备在2014年底前撤出战斗部队，所以加快了对阿富汗安全部队的训练，希望他们会足够稳固来维持国家安全的表象并保持基地组织不会进入。
The eventual departure of most foreign forces will not necessarily spell the end of conflict. A worst-case scenario that Nato is working to prevent is that the country reverts to the sort of self-destructive mayhem and warlordism it endured in the early 1990s following the Soviet pullout and that the Taliban re-emerge in the south, bringing al-Qaeda with them.
大多数外国军队的最终离开并不一定意味着冲突的结束。北约努力避免的最坏情况是这个国家回到那种自我毁灭式的破坏和在上世纪90年代早期苏联撤出后的军阀混战，以及塔利班带着基地组织在南部再次出现。
Pakistan
Logically, an eventual winding down of the Nato vs Taliban conflict in Afghanistan ought to take some of the steam out of Pakistan's own simmering insurgency. But Pakistan's problems run deeper than that, with the country beginning the year with a crisis in relations between its weak civilian government and powerful military as well as a profound mistrust between Washington and Islamabad.
巴基斯坦
逻辑上说，北约和塔利班在巴基斯坦冲突的最终减缓应该也会减缓巴基斯坦自己即将爆发的暴动。但巴基斯坦的问题比这要深，这个国家在孱弱的平民政府和强势的军队的冲突中开始了一年，此外的问题还有华盛顿和伊斯兰堡间深度的不信任。
Much has been written in the US media about concerns over the safety of Pakistan's nuclear ballistic arsenal. While these fears may be exaggerated, some militants will be looking to exploit the political chaos and 2012 looks set to be another violent year. Neither the CIA's drone strikes against militants in Pakistan's tribal territories nor al-Qaeda's activities there are likely to stop soon.
美国媒体已经写了不少关于对巴基斯坦核弹道武器的安全性的忧虑。这些恐惧也许被夸张了，然而一些好战者会留意政治上的混乱，而2012年看起来注定是另一个充满暴力的年度。无论是CIA对巴基斯坦部落领土的好战者进行的无人机打击，还是基地组织在那里的活动，都不可能很快停止。
Iran and the Gulf
International concern over Iran's accelerating nuclear programme is now so profound that Israel - which feels most threatened by Iran - is having to choose between two deeply unappealing options: living with a nuclear-armed Iran within missile range or launching a pre-emptive strike and starting a war which it may not be able to finish.
伊朗和波斯湾
世界对伊朗加速的核计划的忧虑是如此深远，以至于以色列——它最能感受到伊朗的威胁——不得不在两个十分不诱人的选项中做出选择：在导弹射程内和一个装备了核武器的伊朗共处，或先发制人地攻击，开始一场可能无法结束的战争。
Iran has been "wargaming" (planning) for this latter scenario for years and is believed to have in place a number of retaliatory measures should it ever come under full-scale attack. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon unleashing a barrage of rockets on Israel, firing its own missiles at US bases in the Gulf, closing the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and activating sleeper cells in Gulf Arab countries to attack infrastructure and foment unrest. US military officers have so far shown little or no appetite for opening a new theatre of conflict in Iran.
伊朗已经为第二种情况“战争游戏”（计划）了好几年，人们相信，伊朗已经准备好了报复性措施以防被全面攻击：这包括在黎巴嫩的真主党向以色列发射火箭弹、向位于波斯湾的美军基地发射导弹、向运输船只关闭霍尔木兹海峡，以及激活波斯湾的阿拉伯国家的潜伏小组来袭击基础设施并挑起不安。目前为止，美军官员对在伊朗开始新的冲突表示很少甚至是没有兴趣。
Iraq
The departure of US combat forces last month after nearly nine years has not been matched by an end to violence. Al-Qaeda's Iraqi franchise, which many had started to dismiss as a spent and beaten force, has claimed responsibility for the co-ordinated bombings across Baghdad in December that killed more than 60 people. If Iraq's Sunni minority continues to feel disenfranchised and discriminated against by the Shia-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, then there is a risk that violent extremists may be able to attract more recruits to their ranks.
伊拉克
在几乎九年后，上月美军的离开并未与暴力的结束联系在一起。基地组织在伊拉克的分部（很多作为已用和被击败的势力开始解散）声称十二月在巴格达致死超过60 人的炸弹事件为自己所为。如果伊拉克的逊尼派继续感觉被伊拉克总理努里•马利基领导的什叶派为主的政府剥夺了权利并被歧视，暴力的极端分子可能会吸引更多成员加入他们的行列。
Yemen
Yemen is currently in slow-motion turmoil. There are clashes almost daily, sometimes between democracy protesters and snipers loyal to outgoing President Saleh, sometimes between supporters of rival tribal groupings, sometimes between the army and Islamist militants in the southern province of Abyan. Yemen's Gulf neighbours, as well as the UK and US, are concerned that with all its problems coupled with economic collapse, Yemen does not become a failed state. 2012 will be critical in determining whether the country can get itself out of its current impasse.
也门
也门现在处于慢动作的骚乱中。几乎每天都有冲突，有时发生在民主抗议者和忠于即将离任的总统萨里哈的狙击手之间，有时发生在相互竞争的部落群的支持者之间，有时发生在军队和阿比安南部省的伊斯兰武装分子之间。也门在波斯湾的邻国——比如英国和美国——都担心，也门有着这些问题还有经济崩溃，但它并未失败。也门能否走出僵局，2012年将会是决定性的一年。
Somalia
There have been fears, so far unfounded, of an institutional linkup between Somalia's jihadist group, al-Shabab, and its prolific maritime pirates. There is limited co-existence, mainly for financial gain, but no sign yet that Somali pirates would be willing to hand over captured sailors to al-Shabab. Of more concern to the authorities in Britain is the small trickle of British volunteers heading to Somalia intent on volunteering for jihad. Their worry is that sooner or later some will be tempted - as others have in Pakistan - to return to attack Britain instead of fighting and dying in a distant country.
索马里
人们对于索马里的伊斯兰圣战者、基地组织和极多的海盗之间的联系，有一种毫无根据的恐惧。共存是有限的，大部分是为了获得财富，但现在还没有标志显示索马里海盗会愿意把俘虏的水手交给基地组织，英国当局更忧虑的是去向索马里的小部分英国志愿者实际上想服务于伊斯兰圣战者。他们担心一些志愿者早晚会被诱惑——就像去巴基斯坦的那些一样——来回到并袭击英国，而不是在遥远的国度战斗和送命。
North Africa
The upheavals across Tunisia, Libya and Egypt prompted by the Arab Awakening have been followed by only limited outbreaks of violence but certainly in Libya and Egypt, there is a risk that more could follow.
北非
一些有限的暴力事件在由“阿拉伯觉醒”引起的遍布突尼斯、利比亚和埃及的激变之后发生，但确定的是在利比亚和埃及，可能发生更多暴力事件。
In Libya, it has been proving hard to persuade armed militias to surrender their guns, and there is a real worry that weapons looted from Gaddafi's arsenals have leaked across the southern borders into the hands of militants in Mali and elsewhere. Of greatest concern is the risk of shoulder-launched missiles falling into terrorist hands and there has been a major drive to try to locate them.
在利比亚，说服武装民兵放下枪支已被证明非常困难，而从卡扎菲的军械库抢劫来的武器已经通过南部边境流失到马里和其他地方的好战者手中，这也令人担心。最令人忧虑的是可能有便携式导弹落入恐怖分子手中，人们已经试着寻找它们。
Al-Qaeda's franchise in the Sahara, known as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (Aqim) is currently holding 12 Europeans for ransom and Western governments have warned their citizens to avoid large parts of the Sahara region for fear of kidnap.
基地组织在撒哈拉的分部——被称为伊斯兰北非盖达组织（Aqim）——手里有12个欧洲人质，西方政府已经警告过自己的人民避免去撒哈拉地区以免被绑架。
Nigeria
Last year, attacks by the group Boko Haram - which means "Western education is forbidden" - killed more than 450 people, including at the UN headquarters in Abuja, a radical departure from its previous targets of police, judges and other local figures. In mid-2011, the US general commanding the Pentagon's Africa Command (Africom) warned there may be growing links between Boko Haram and Aqim. Britain's domestic intelligence agency, MI5, is believed to be on the lookout for any signs of Boko Haram connections amongst Britain's sizable Nigerian community.
尼日利亚
去年，名为“博科圣地”——意即“西方教育是禁忌”——的组织的包括在联合国阿布贾总部的袭击杀害了超过450个人，相对于它原来以警察、法官和其他当地名人为目标来说，这激进了不少。在2011年中期，指挥五角大楼非洲司令部（Africom）的美国将军警告道，在博科圣地和伊斯兰北非盖达组织之间也许会有越来越多的联系。人们相信英国的国内情报组织M15正在监视博科圣地和英国相当大的尼日利亚人口的联系的任何迹象。
The Olympics
Britain's hosting of the Olympics this summer will, we are told, see "the biggest security operation in this country since the Second World War". Some 13,500 military personnel will be on duty, a Royal Navy helicopter-carrying warship will be docked near the venue, ground-to-air missiles will be deployed and RAF Typhoon fighters will be on standby to provide air defence. None of which should be needed, if all goes to plan. But the Olympics are classed as a "trophy target" for anyone looking to damage Britain and security preparations are being made on the basis of the national terrorist threat being at "severe", the second highest level in a table of five.
奥运会
英国将在这个夏天举办奥运会，我们被告知，我们会看到“二战后在这个国家最大的安保措施”。会有大约13500军事人员值班，一艘皇家海军可装载直升机的军舰将在比赛场馆附近停驻，会有地对空导弹被部署，而英国皇家空军的台风战斗机会待命以提供空中防御。如果一切按计划进行的话，应该不会需要这些。但对于任何想要破坏英国的人来说，奥运会可以被列为“奖杯目标”，而关于安保的准备是建立在国际恐怖主义威胁处于“严重”——五级里面第二高的一级——级别的基础上的。
Cyber
Computers belonging to government institutions, commercial organisations and private individuals are coming under constant cyber attack, according to GCHQ, the government's secret communications HQ in Cheltenham. Attacks range from commercial espionage to stealing credit card details to trying to hack into military secrets. To head off the possibility of a catastrophic cyber attack on Britain's infrastructure, the government is investing heavily in protective measures, fighting what it calls "a constant arms race in cyber space".
电脑/网络
根据GCHQ——政府在切尔滕纳姆的秘密通信总部——的说法，属于政府机构、商业组织和个人的电脑将处于持续的网络攻击下。攻击从商业间谍活动到窃取信用卡信息再到试图窃取军事机密都会有。为了阻止对英国基础设施的灾难性的网络攻击的可能性，政府在保护措施方面投入很多，正在进行“网络中一场持续的军备竞赛”。
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发表于 2012-1-5 15:59
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