Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz

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【中文标题】若伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，石油价格将飙升
【原文标题】Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【来源地址】http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/business/oil-price-would-skyrocket-if-iran-closed-the-strait.html?_r=2
【译者】luoyan0813
【翻译方式】人工
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【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3278514-1-1.html
【译文】



HOUSTON — If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.

休士顿——霍尔木兹海峡是全球几乎五分之一的石油贸易的运输通道，如果伊朗准备贯彻即将关闭它的想法，其影响是即时的，能源分析师表示，油价将在几天之内飙升，可能上涨50%甚至更多。

An Iranian blockade by means of mining, airstrikes or sabotage is logistically well within Tehran’s military capabilities. But despite rising tensions with the West, including a tentative ban on European imports of Iranian oil announced Wednesday, Iran is unlikely to take such hostile action, according to most Middle East political experts.

如果伊朗人想通过破坏的方式阻断通道，从操作角度来说，空袭破坏的方式在德黑兰的军队能力之内。但是照多数中东政治家所言，尽管伊朗与西方紧张关系加剧，还包括周三公布的欧洲进口伊朗原油的实验性禁令，但是伊朗不太可能采取敌对行动。

United States officials say the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, stands ready to defend the shipping route and, if necessary, retaliate militarily against Iran.

美国官方称第五海军舰队，以巴林附近为基地，坚持保卫海运通道，如果必要的话，会在军事上对伊朗进行反击。

Iran’s own shaky economy relies on exporting at least two million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf and “the world’s most important oil choke point,” according to Energy Department analysts.

能源署的分析师说，伊朗自己不稳定的经济正是依赖于每天通过海峡出口的至少两百万桶原油，该海峡是波斯湾必经的航线也是世界最重要的原油交通枢纽点。

A blockade would also punish China, Iran’s most important oil customer and a major recipient of Persian Gulf oil. China has invested heavily in Iranian oil fields and has opposed Western efforts to sanction Iran over its nuclear program.

封锁行动也将严重影响到伊朗最重要的原油客户以及波斯湾原油的购买者—中国。中国大力投资伊朗油田并且反对西方制裁伊朗核武计划。

Despite such deterrents to armed confrontation, oil and foreign policy analysts say a miscalculation is possible that could cause an overreaction from one side or the other.

石油和外交政策分析家说，尽管武力对抗如此有威慑力，或许只是一方或另一方的误算导致这样过度反应的局面。

“I fear we may be blundering toward a crisis nobody wants,” said Helima Croft, senior geopolitical strategist at Barclays Capital. “There is a peril of engaging in brinksmanship from all sides.”

巴克莱高级地理策略师立马克罗夫特说；“恐怕我们正鲁莽的朝着一个没人期望的危机靠拢，有来自各方边缘政策的危机。”

Various Iranian officials in recent weeks have said they would blockade the strait, which is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, if the United States and Europe imposed a tight oil embargo on their country in an effort to thwart its development of nuclear weapons.

最近几周各种伊朗官方表明如果美国和欧洲任然坚持石油禁令来阻扰他们发展核武器，他们将封锁那个最窄只有21英里海峡。

That did not stop President Obama from signing legislation last weekend imposing sanctions against Iran’s Central Bank intended to make it more difficult for the country to sell its oil, nor did it dissuade the European Union from moving toward a ban on Iranian oil imports.

即使这样，也不会阻止奥巴马总统上周末签署法规制裁伊朗中央银行使伊朗更难出售其石油，也不会阻止欧盟下令禁止伊朗石油进口。

Energy analysts say even a partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could raise the world price of oil within days by $50 a barrel or more, and that would quickly push the price of a gallon of regular gasoline to well over $4 a gallon. “You would get an international reaction that would not only be high, but irrationally high,” said Lawrence J. Goldstein, a director of the Energy Policy Research Foundation.

能源分析专家说即使部分的封锁霍尔木兹海峡也会在几天之内使世界油价一桶剧增50美元或更多，那会令一加仑的普通汽油迅速增长超过4美元。“你会得到一个国际反应，这不仅高，而且是非理性的高”，能源政策研究基金会的主任劳伦斯戈尔斯坦说。

Just the threat of such a development has helped keep oil prices above $100 a barrel in recent weeks despite a return of Libyan oil to world markets, worries of a European economic downturn and weakening American gasoline demand. Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday as the political tensions intensified.

这样发展下去，只是帮助石油保持了一个每桶一百美元以上的价格，尽管利比亚石油回归市场，欧洲经济衰退，削弱了美国对石油的需求。

American officials have warned Iran against violating international laws that protect commercial shipping in international waters, adding that the Navy would guarantee free sea traffic.

美国官方警告伊朗违反了国际保护商业船只在商业水域的法律，并补充说，海军将保障自由的海上交通.

“If the Iranians chose to use their modest navy and antiship missiles to attack allied forces, they would see a probable swift devastation of their naval capability,” said David L. Goldwyn, former State Department coordinator for international energy affairs. “We would take out their frigates.”

“如果伊朗选择使用他们的海军和反舰飞弹去袭击盟军，他们很快会受到相应的蹂躏”，大卫高德温，前国务院国际能源协调员说，“我们会驶出我们的护卫舰”。

More than 85 percent of the oil and most of the natural gas that flows through the strait goes to China, Japan, India, South Korea and other Asian nations. But a blockade would have a ripple effect on global oil prices.

多于百分之八十五的原油和天然气流向中国、日本、印度、韩国及以其他亚洲国家。封锁对全球油价造成连锁反应。

Since Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates all rely on the strait to ship their oil and natural gas exports, a blockade might undermine some of those governments in an already unstable region.
Analysts say that a crisis over the Strait of Hormuz would most likely bring China and the United States into something of an alliance to restore shipments, although Mr. Goldwyn said China would more likely resort to private diplomacy instead of military force.

伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、阿拉伯联合酋长国都依赖于该海峡来支持他们的原油和天然气出口，封锁会使这些本不稳定的地区的政府遭到破坏。分析家说霍尔木兹海峡危机最可能给中国和美国在某种意义上以联合的方式储存货物，尽管高德温先生说中国会凭借私交而非军事武装的手段。

Europe and the United States would probably feel the least direct impact because they have strategic oil reserves and could get some Persian Gulf oil through Red Sea pipelines. Saudi Arabia has pipelines that could transport about five million barrels out of the region, while Iraq and the United Arab Emirates also have pipelines with large capacities.

欧洲和美国似乎受到的影响最小，因为他们有战略上的石油储存并且能够从红海运输获得波斯湾原油。沙特阿拉伯人有能够运输五百万桶的通道，伊拉克和阿拉伯联合酋长国也有大容量的通道。

But transportation costs would be higher if the strait were blocked, and several million barrels of oil exports would remain stranded, sending energy prices soaring on global markets.

但如果海峡被封锁的话运输费用会更高，并且几百万桶原油会被搁浅，全球市场的能源价格持续升高。

“To close the Strait of Hormuz would be an act of war against the whole world,” said Sadad Ibrahim Al-Husseini, former head of exploration and development at Saudi Aramco. “You just can’t play with the global economy and assume that nobody is going to react.”

“关闭霍尔木兹海峡将是挑战整个世界的战争行为”，萨达义普拉欣胡塞尼，前沙特勘探主管说，“你不可能和全球经济开玩笑并保证没有人采取反击。”

The Iranians have struck in the strait before. In the 1980s, Iran attacked Kuwaiti tankers carrying Iraqi oil, and the Reagan administration reflagged Kuwaiti ships under American flags and escorted them with American warships. Iran backed down, partially, but continued to plant mines.

之前伊朗人就已经干涉海峡事物。在20世纪80年代，伊朗袭击科威特载有伊拉克石油的油轮，里根政府袭击美国军队护送的悬挂美国国旗的科威特船只。

In 1988, an American frigate hit an Iranian mine and nearly sank. United States warships retaliated by destroying some Iranian oil platforms. Attacks and counterattacks continued for months, and a missile from an American warship accidentally shot down an Iranian passenger aircraft, killing 290 passengers.

1998年，一艘美国护卫舰撞上伊朗地雷进而几乎沉没。美国军舰破坏一些伊朗石油平台作为报复。袭击和反击持续了数月，一艘由美国军舰发射的导弹意外的射落一艘伊朗载人飞机，290名乘客丧生。

Energy experts say a crisis in the strait would most likely unfold gradually, with Iran using its threats as a way to increase oil prices and shipping costs for the West as retaliation against the tightening of sanctions. So far, energy experts say, insurance companies have not raised prices for covering tankers, but shipping companies are already preparing to pay bonuses for crews facing more hazardous duties.

能源专家说海峡危机将很有可能扩大，伊朗将以提升西方油价和轮船运输费用作为报复制裁的手段。到目前为止，能源专家说，保险公司没有提升修复油轮的价格，但是轮船公司已经着手为面对更多危险的船员支付更多奖金。

“My guess is this is a lot of threats,” said Michael A. Levi, an energy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, “but there is no certainty in this kind of situation.”

“我猜这有很大威胁性，”迈克尔伊娃尼，一位美国对外关系理事会的能源专家说，“但是这种情况任然不确定。”

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