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本帖最后由 MacTavish_Tang 于 2012-1-9 09:44 编辑
【原帖地址】：http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/06/opinion/etzioni-china-enemy/
【原文标题】：Is China America's new enemy?
【译者】MacTavish_Tang
【翻译方式】人工
【译文】：
2008年，北京天安门阅兵。
编者按：Amitai Etzioni是一名社会学家、作家以及乔治·华盛顿大学的国际关系学教授，著有《隐私权的界限》等书。他曾是卡特政府的高级顾问，并曾在哥伦比亚大学、哈佛大学和加州大学伯克利分校任教。
奥巴马总统于本周四公布了新的军事战略，根据新战略的要求，美国的战略重心将从中东转移至亚太地区，一定程度上着重于飞速增长的中国军事力量。
不同于以往在如提高税收或国会投票问题上会举行公众性的辩论，美国政府正在悄然将中国定位成为一个正在积极备战的，具有侵略性的超级大国。
退役中将和现任国家情报总监James Clapper声称：中国正致力于发展其军事实力作为对美军的撒手锏。众议院外交事务委员会主席Ileana Ros-Lehtinen认为：中国军方毫不掩饰的将美国作为其假想敌，因而我们不能自欺欺人的认为可以和一个自称是我们竞争对手的国家做朋友。
不过，中国领导人往往强调，他们不寻求与美国进行对抗。外交部发言人洪磊表示“中国长期以来一直奉行防御性国防政策，并坚持走和平发展道路 。”
尽管如此，人们仍能很容易地发现来自中国鹰派的声音。比如朱成虎将军曾表示，中国应放弃“不首先使用核武器”的原则，以便更好的捍卫中方在台湾问题上的立场；朱将军还认为，如果美国对中国进行军事干预，中国可以使用核武器进行反击。2011年，一篇发表在环球时报英文版（中国共产党的官方报纸）上的社论警告称：那些与中国有海上纠纷的国家，必须准备好聆听大炮的声音。（译者注：勿谓言之不预也）
此外，在几起事件中，中国展现了强硬的，令人不安的行动。2009年，据五角大楼报导:五艘中国舰艇近距离尾随并包围美国海军海洋监测船，无暇号。（译者注：无暇号实为水声测听船，属间谍船。）2011年，中国巡逻艇剪断了一艘越南调查船的电缆。
美国的鹰派认为，鉴于中飞速增长的军事力量，美国必须同样整军备战。然而，美国的鸽派指出，与美国庞大的军费开支相比，中国的军费几乎是微不足道。中国官方公布的2009年军费开支是700亿美元，但美国国防部估计中国的实际军费应当在1225亿到1750亿美元左右。相比较而言，美国2009财年国防预算约为6870亿美元。
虽然中国在2011年下水了其第一艘常规动力航母，但同时期，美国拥有11核动力航母。随着中国经济增速放缓，以及中国在社会、环境问题上的开支的增加，未来中国军费开支很可能受到限制——除非美国的某些行动刺激了中国。
美国的鸽派还指出，中国的国防现代化的起点很低，而中国的高度官僚主义和效率低下的军工企业甚至落后于中国国内的民企。中国的核潜艇落后于世界先进水平，仅有几颗军用通信卫星，核轰炸机机队严重老化，另外据报道，解放军的指挥控制系统存在着严重的问题。（译者注：此段应注意分辨真伪。如果美国人当真如此认为，那是最好不过的了。）
美国几乎所有的鹰派并不认为中国会在近期，甚至中远期威胁到美国的核心利益。Robert Ross认为，如果解放军想转变成为左右一个地区的战略性力量，那至少需要几十年。至于解放军成为一支全球性的战略力量，那更是非常遥远的以后的事了。Kenneth Lieberthal认为，不论在中国还是在美国，没有一个人会真的认为，中国的军事实力在未来三四十年有超越美国的希望。
因此，在做出中美之间必有一战的结论前，美国可以放心的继续寻求将中国转变成为一个合作伙伴。
美国可以在保护中国能源、原材料来源的问题上与中国合作，这些对中国来说至关重要，并且不会引发中美之间的冲突。美国可以同意与中国就解决南海问题进行谈判，并阻止中国的邻国联合起来反对中国的合法利益。
【原文】：
Editor's note: Amitai Etzioni is a sociologist and professor of international relations at George Washington University and the author of several books, including "The Limits of Privacy." He was a senior adviser to the Carter administration and has taught at Columbia and Harvard universities and the University of California, Berkeley.
(CNN) -- President Barack Obama unveiled Thursday a new military strategy. It calls for "pivoting" from the Middle East to the Far East, focusing partly on the military buildup of China.
Without a major public debate of the kind we have about raising taxes, or a congressional vote, the U.S. government is moving slowly but surely toward characterizing China as an aggressive superpower and is preparing for war, should it become necessary.
James Clapper, retired lieutenant general and current director of national intelligence, characterized China, "growing in its military capabilities," as a "mortal threat" to the United States. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said, "The Chinese military openly regards the United States as an enemy. We should not undermine our own security by thinking we can make friends with self-proclaimed adversaries with hospitality and open arms."
China's leaders tend to stress that they do not seek a confrontation. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei stated that "China from beginning to end pursues a defensive national defense policy, and sticks to the path of peaceful development."
Still, one can readily find belligerent voices from China. Gen. Zhu Chenghu expressed willingness to abandon China's "no first use" nuclear weapons poloicy, to defend its claim over Taiwan and argued that China should use nuclear weapons against the United States should its military interfere. A 2011 editorial in the Global Times (an English edition of the Communist Party of China's official newspaper) warned that countries involved in sea disputes with China "need to prepare for the sounds of cannons."
Moreover, there were several incidents in which China exhibited provocative, troubling behavior. In 2009, the Pentagon reported that five Chinese vessels "shadowed and aggressively maneuvered in dangerously close proximity to USNS Impeccable, in an apparent coordinated effort to harass the U.S. ocean surveillance ship." In 2011, Chinese patrol boats cut a Vietnamese survey ship's cables.
American hawks hold that the U.S. must build up its military, given China's rapid military buildup. However, American doves point out that China's defense spending is rather small. Chinese government-released figures say they spent $70 billion on defense in 2009, though U.S. DoD estimates place it somewhere between $122.5 billion and $175 billion. For comparison, the U.S. defense budget for fiscal year 2009 was about $687 billion.
While China launched its first aircraft carrier in August 2011, the U.S. Navy has 11. As China's economic growth slows and the cost of its social and environmental problems rises, it is likely to curb the increases in its defense spending -- unless spurred on by American moves.
The same doves point out that China's military modernization began from a low baseline. China's highly bureaucratic and inefficient military-industrial complex lags behind even its own nonmilitary and non-state-owned counterparts. Its nuclear submarines are poorly designed. It has few military communications satellites. China's nuclear-armed bomber fleet is woefully obsolete, and its military is reported to face major problems in its command-and-control systems.
All but the most ardent Western hawks see no significant Chinese military threat to core U.S. interests in the near or even intermediate future. Robert Ross finds that "the transformation of the PLA [People's Liberation Army] into a region-wide strategic power will require many decades ... The transformation of the PLA into a global strategic power is an even more distant prospect." And Kenneth Lieberthal contends, "There is no serious military man in China or in the United States who thinks that China has any prayer of dominating the U.S. militarily in the coming three or four decades."
Hence, the U.S. can safely continue to seek to turn China into a partner before concluding that a course of confrontation is unavoidable.
The U.S. could work with China to secure pathways for energy and raw materials that are very important to China, and should not bother us. The U.S. could agree with China to settle in an international court or through negotiations differences about claims over the South China Sea; and stop calling on China's neighboring countries to get together to oppose China's legitimate interests.
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发表于 2012-1-7 16:01
