A looming hard landing in China will bring the financial and economic crisis of the past five years to a climax in 2012, one of the City of London's leading analysts has warned.
一位金融城的高级分析师警告道，在2012年，隐现的中国经济硬着陆将把过去五年中的金融和经济危机推向高峰。
Albert Edwards, head of strategy at Société Générale and one of the UK's leading "bears", said the next 12 months would be the "final year of pain and disappointment".
Predicting a sharp slowdown in activity in the world's fastest-growing emerging economy, Edwards said: "There is a likelihood of a China hard landing this year. It is hard to think 2013 and onwards will be any worse than this year if China hard-lands."
法国兴业银行全球战略分析师以及英国主要空头（主张股市做空的人）之一阿尔伯特·爱德华兹说，这一年将是“痛苦和失望的最后一年”。 他预测这个世界上增长最快的新兴经济体将面临一场急刹车:”这一年中国经济可能面临硬着陆。若果真如此，今年将会是最糟糕的一年”。
Although China emerged rapidly from the downturn of 2008-09, Edwards said the recovery had been the result of a massive reflationary package by the Chinese government. Beijing, he added, could not afford another big stimulus to offset a weakening of the economy. Falling imports have led to a widening of China's trade surplus, but Edwards said exports were set to slow and a trade deficit was looming.
尽管中国在08-09的衰退中迅速恢复了过来，但爱德华兹认为这是中国政府大规模通货再膨胀政策的结果。他还补充道，中国不会有能力再次进行大规模经济刺激以抵消经济衰退了。
He added that despite the recent run of more upbeat economic news from the United States, the risk of another recession in the world's biggest economy was "very high". Growth had slowed to an annual rate of 1.5% in the second and third quarters of 2011, below the "stall speed" that historically led to recession. It was unlikely that the economy would muddle through, Edwards said.
他还补充道，尽管美国最近有了更多乐观的经济新闻，但这个世界上最大的经济体发生另一次经济衰退的可能性仍然“非常高”。在2011年的第二和第三季度，美国的经济增长率放缓至年增长率1.3%，低于导致衰退的“失速速度”。他认为，美国经济不太可能会挺过这一次。 China has grown by around 10% a year on average over the past two decades, making it the world's second-biggest economy, but the threat of a double-dip recession in the west, coupled with signs of over-heating in the Chinese property market, have caused some analysts to predict severe problems ahead.
在过去的20年内，中国经济增速保持在每年10%左右，这也使得它成为世界第二大经济体，但西方双底衰退（经济衰退触底恢复，失去动力再次衰退）的威胁，以及中国房地产市场的过热，使得一些分析者对其前景看衰。
Edwards's view was supported by the historian Edward Chancellor, who said China's recent economic performance conformed to the pattern of previous manias and bubbles in history. These included an uncritically assumed growth story, easy money and credit expansion, investment booms and the misallocation of capital, and conspicuous consumption.
爱德华兹的观点得到了历史学家爱德华·钱塞勒的支持，钱塞勒认为中国最近的经济态势同以前狂热投资和经济泡沫时的形势相吻合。其中包括想当然的认定经济总是增长的想法，宽松的货币政策和信贷扩张，投资繁荣和资本配置不当，以及炫耀性消费。 The warning of fresh trouble ahead came as the World Economic Forum said rising youth unemployment, pressure on pensions and a growing gulf between rich and poor were sowing the "seeds of dystopia" that were putting at risk the gains from globalisation.
正如世界经济论坛所说，不断增加的青年失业率，养老金上的压力以及不断拉大的贫富差距正在播下能够蚕食全球化硕果的“反面乌托邦之种”，这是新危机出现的警示。 In its annual assessment of the outlook for the global economy before its meeting in Davos later this month, the WEF expressed concern at the possibility of economic and social upheaval caused by the inability of the young to find work and the dependency of elderly people on states deeply in debt.
在本月晚些时候的沃斯达会议之前，世界经济论坛对世界经济前景做了每年一度评估，对经济和社会产生动荡的可能表达了关注，这种可能性来自青年人找不到工作以及老人对本就深陷债务的国家的过分依赖。
"For the first time in generations, many people no longer believe that their children will grow up to enjoy a higher standard of living than theirs," said Lee Howell, the WEF managing director responsible for the report. "This new malaise is particularly acute in the industrialised countries that historically have been a source of great confidence and bold ideas."
“历经几代，很多人第一次开始相信，他们子女的生活质量将不如自己”，负责编写报告的世界经济论坛总经理李·霍维尔这样说道，“这种消极情绪在工业化国家尤为严重，这些国家原本曾是信心与创意的源泉”。
The survey of 469 global experts identified chronic problems with government finances and severe income inequality as the most prevalent risks over the next decade.
对全球469位有关专家的调查表明，长期存在的政府财政问题以及严重的收入不均衡是下一个十年里最普遍的危机。
"These risks in tandem threaten global growth as they are drivers of nationalism, populism and protectionism at a time when the world remains vulnerable to systemic financial shocks, as well as possible food and water crises," the report said.
“当前世界在系统性的金融震荡以及可能的粮食和水资源危机面前十分脆弱，在这个时候，这些危机（财政问题、收入不均）同上述问题一起将威胁到世界经济的增长，因为他们会是民族主义、民粹主义和保护主义的催化剂”。
The study said early hopes that closer global integration would inevitably lead to higher living standards for all were at risk of being dashed by trends that left large numbers of people fearful about the future.
研究表明，开始认为更紧密的全球一体化一定会使所有人生活质量提高的那种希冀，已经随着很多人对未来的恐惧而面临破灭。
"Individuals are increasingly being asked to bear risks previously assumed by governments and companies to obtain a secure retirement and access to quality healthcare. This report is a wake-up call to both the public and private sectors to come up with constructive ways to realign the expectations of an increasingly anxious global community," said John Drzik, chief executive of management consultants the Oliver Wyman Group .
“每个个体越来越多的要承担原本应由政府和企业所承担的风险，以保证能安然退休并获得高质量的医疗保障。这份报告是对公共和私营部门的一个提醒：大家应拿出有建设性的方法，来重新定位对日益焦虑的全球社区的期望”，奥维咨询公司总裁约翰·德克兹这样说道。
The study said the policies and institutions of the 20th century no longer offered protection in a more complex and integrated global economy. "The weakness of existing safeguards is exposed by risks related to emerging technologies, financial interdependence, resource depletion and climate change, leaving society vulnerable."
研究表明，在当前更加复杂的全球经济形势下，上世纪的政策和机构已不再能够提供有效的保护。“与新兴技术、经济相互依赖、资源匮乏和气候变化有关的风险使得当前安全机制的不足逐渐暴露，最终使社会变的脆弱”。
It also warned that there was a "dark side of connectivity", with societies vulnerable to "malicious" and "devastating" cyber attacks.
"The Arab spring demonstrated the power of interconnected communications services to drive personal freedom, yet the same technology facilitated riots in London. Governments, societies and businesses need to better understand the interconnectivity of risk in today's technologies if we are truly to reap the benefits they offer," said Steve Wilson, chief risk officer for general insurance at Zurich.
研究还警告道，随着社会面对“恶意”和“破坏性”网络攻击的无力，“互联的阴暗面”也在显现。
苏黎世普通保险业务首席风险官史蒂夫·威尔逊说道，“阿拉伯之春证明，互联网通信服务的力量之大，甚至可以推动个人的自由，但是同样的技术却在伦敦带来了骚乱。若我们真的要利用这些技术所带来的便利，那么政府，社会和公司需要更深刻的理解当今技术风险的互联互通”。
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