本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 15:35 编辑
【中文标题】将中国作为政治靶子真的有用吗？
【原文标题】Taking Swings at China
Does it really work to use Beijing as a political punching bag?
【登载媒体】外交政策
【来源地址】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/11/taking_swings_at_china
【译 者】lilyma06
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
奥巴马总统及其共和党的对手今年会很忙的，他们会忙着证明谁更适合创造就业机会，提升经济，而美国公众对中国经济崛起的观点也是相互矛盾的。根据公众意见调查表明，美国公众对反华言辞表示相当接受，特别是当一国作为经济大国已经崛起了。 CBS新闻和《纽约时报》在去年11月的一项投票结果表明，超过6/10的美国人认为中国的经济扩张已经伤害到美国，而这种情绪已经超越了传统的党派区别。皮尤调查中心12月份的一项投票表明，很多人认为与中国所谓的竞争已成为对美国经济的一个“主要威胁”，差不多9/10的人认为中国至少是一个小威胁。对于中国厌恶的这种感觉还是有限的。CBS上的投票表明12%的认为中国敌人，是认为中国是“友好的，但不是同盟国的”人数的4倍。The target: Non-college whites 目标：非高校白人 这些总统候选人来讨论中国问题对于吸引没有高校学历的白人选民来说会起到很好的作用。打开最近一期《大西洋月刊》杂志的封面，很多选民都亲身经历了中国崛起所带来的影响，见证了制造业的工作流向了海外。皮尤12月的调查表明对于没有高校学历的美国白人来说越来越担忧中国对美国经济衰退的影响。 在一些关键的“铁锈地带”（以前工业繁盛先已衰落的一些地区）州部分这些没有高校学历的白人占据选票的大部分，他们当中的很多人会争取投入到2012年大选中来。在2008年时在宾夕法尼亚州有差不多4/10的选民是由这些无高校学历的白人构成的。奥巴马在2008年时在全美范围内就失去了这类人中18%的选票 责怪奥巴马？ 中国可能会收到负面关注的一部分原因是，美国人还没有果断地因为国家持续的经济状况指责奥巴马。11月份CBSNews的一项调查发现， 12 ％的人因经济状况指责奥巴马政府，同样有12%的人指责华尔街，更多的一部分人（16％）责怪国会和布什政府（22％） 。近1/4的人指责所有这些人。 共和党候选人十分关注奥巴马和当前的经济状况，责备其造成的持续的高失业率和提供就业机会缓慢。但他们也并没主张同中国保持更友好的关系，特别是在贸易方面。举个例子，尽管罗姆尼批评奥巴马的做法，但他主张更强硬的立场来将中国作为货币操纵者和“不公平贸易行为”的打击对象。 爱国小调 2012年大选的一个主要暗流就是能感觉得到美国队世界的影响正在逐渐衰退。《时代周刊》去年10月的一项调查显示超过7/10的人这样认为，而这其中大部分人认为中国的崛起起了重要的作用。罗姆尼更是有这种看法，将奥巴马第一任期中糟糕的经济状态来作为其参选的对照，将其工作计划称为“相信美国”,他的外交政策方法是“一个美国的世纪。” 这种爱国论调听起来跟里根1984年的竞选广告《美国的早晨》很相似，当时在里根总统第一任期时两次衰退后经济蓬勃复苏。奥巴马还不能自夸能有这种蓬勃的经济增长，但如果失业率在今年持续下降的话，会持续经济发展。 无论中国能否走在2012年大选的最前端，美国人都坚信中国伤害了美国经济，并会在未来对美国政治产生更大的影响。
President BarackObama and his eventual Republican opponent will spend much of the year focusingon who is best equipped to create jobs and improve the economy, with Americans'ambivalent public views about China's economic rise a possible centerpiece.
Publicopinion surveys suggest the American public is quite receptive to anti-Chinarhetoric, particularly when it comes to that country's emergence as an economicpower.
More thansix in 10 adults see China's economic expansion hurting the United States,according to a November CBSNews/New York Times poll, asentiment that spans traditional partisan divides. About as many calledcompetition with China a "major threat" to the economic well being of the UnitedStates in a December PewResearch Center poll, with nearly nine in 10 saying China is at least aminor threat. The intensity of China antipathy is limited. A slender 12 percentin the CBS poll classified China as an enemy, with four times as many sayingthe nation is "friendly, but not an ally."
The target: Non-college whites
Tough talkon China could play a particularly strong role as candidates try to court whitevoters who lack college degrees. Occupying the front cover of thelatest Atlantic magazine, many ofthese voters have personally experienced the impact of China's rise, seeingmanufacturing jobs go overseas. The December Pew poll found concern aboutChina's threat to the U.S. economy peaked among whites without collegeeducations.
Whiteswithout college degrees also make up large swaths of the electorate in critical"rust belt" states, many of which are up for grabs in the 2012 election. In2008, non-college whites made up at least half of voters in Ohio and Michiganand nearly four in 10 voters in Pennsylvania. Obama lost non-college whites by18 percentage points nationally in2008, and he trails among this group in a contest with Mitt Romney by 20points in a DecemberWashington Post-ABC News poll.
Blame Obama?
Part of thereason China may receive negative attention is that Americans have yet todecisively blame Obama for the nation's continued economic troubles. A DecemberCBSNews poll found 12 percent blaming the Obama administration for theeconomic conditions; the same number blamed Wall Street, while slightly moreblamed Congress (16 percent) and the Bush administration (22 percent). Nearly aquarter blamed all of these groups.
Republicanscandidates have focused sharply on the president and the economy, blaming himfor continued high unemployment and slow job creation. But they haven'tadvocated a more friendly relationship with China, especially on the issue oftrade. In one example, though critical of Obama's approach, Romney favors an even stronger stance,opting to designate China as a currency manipulator and attacking "unfair tradepractices."
Patriotic undertones
A majorundercurrent to the 2012 election is the sense that American influence in theworld is on the wane. More than seven in 10 said this in an October poll by Time magazine and SRBI, and most ofthis group said China's rise has played a role. Romney has run with thissentiment -- offering his candidacy as an antithesis to Obama's economicallydistressed first term -- labeling his jobs plan "believe in America" and his foreignpolicy approach "anAmerican century."
Thepatriotic tones sound quite similar to Ronald Reagan's "Morning in America"campaign in 1984, which was convincing thanks to a booming economic recoveryafter twin recessions during his first presidential term. Obama can'tboast of such booming growth, but would certainly like to claim credit forsustained economic improvement if the unemployment rate continues to fall thisyear.
WhetherChina comes to the forefront of the 2012 election or not, Americans' beliefthat China is hurting the U.S. economy looks to play a larger role in U.S.politics in the future.
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