【中文标题】中俄为叙利亚做掩护
【原文标题】 Russia and China provide cover for Assad’s Syria
【登载媒体】多伦多星报
【来源地址】 http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1124472
【翻译方式】人工
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【译文】
纽约的联合国大厦外，头戴弗拉基米尔·普京和巴沙尔.阿萨德面具的演员倾倒血迹斑斑的尸体袋，在安理会成员举行会议讨论叙利亚危机之际。
以卡塔尔的埃米尔.哈马德.本.哈利法.阿勒萨尼的带领下海湾地区阿拉伯国家加紧了对叙利亚政权的批评，同时召回在叙利亚履行阿拉伯联盟使命的观察员。预计他们很会支持主张军事干预的在联合国决议，但是切莫对这种情形的发生抱有太大期望。当叙利亚死亡人数不断增加，直至趋近于5,000左右的时候，是时候接受一场有可能旷日持久的僵局。不同于其他阿拉伯国家政权戏剧性并且迅速而又迅猛地被推翻，叙利亚僵局在世界大国的无动于衷下，继续饱受外界猜疑和分歧的诟病。
作为在安理会的两大常任理事国，俄罗斯和中国对叙利亚政权的支持会对叙利亚进行武力干预和严厉经济制裁的任何决议投否决票。双方一致认为，在去年的执联合国1973号决议中受到西方国家和北约集团的欺骗，该决议原本旨在捍卫利比亚平民的利益，但最终却导致了卡扎菲政权的垮台。这两个正在崛起的经济大国坚定支持西方国家各居其位、各司其职。但是他们强烈反对将联合国作为实现美国和欧洲对外政策利益“合法化”的工具。
叙利亚问题的决议是和伊朗相关问题的决议紧密关联的。由于伊朗被指控进行核武器发展计划，西方政府坚持推行更为强硬的联合国制裁机制，然而为了避免恶化与伊朗的经济和军事关系，俄罗斯和中国拒绝亦步亦趋。
而且，联合国解决叙利亚和伊朗问题的建议也被这两个国家视为实现西方国家共同目标的策略。这个共同目标是：建立新政权，变革整个地区。
同时，俄罗斯和中国通过支持叙利亚人民，对本国内莫斯科街头和西藏的反对派的倒行逆施采取的不正当行为，提供一个非常有说服力的依据。它们表示“由西方列强向外输出思想和金钱进行间接干预的叛乱活动，导致了国外产生了恐怖主义和抗议活动”。
叙利亚的巴沙尔.阿萨德始终反复熟悉的行为。对示威者权利的支持即是对这些国家主权的干涉。
俄罗斯和中国民众明显感受到，西方大国的实力在经济危机的影响下已被削弱。而来自美国和欧洲的财政压力也一定程度上使得它们对发起另一场战争缺乏热情。北约军事集团的两个最大贡献者巴拉克.奥巴马和尼古拉.萨科奇面对着即将到来的对2012年连任的激烈角逐，即使拥有任期内外交方面的成功，也不能安抚国内民众对其经济政策的批评声音。
同样地，俄罗斯和中国也将在2012年迎来领导层的变动。两国新的继任者，习近平和弗拉基米尔.普京，均属于在联合国内拒绝与西方利益集团妥协的强硬派。
对于海湾的阿拉伯国家，面对联合国倡导反对阿萨德的情形，他们微薄的军力和自身的势单力薄，显得没有一丝话语权。卡塔尔拥有11000军队，其中70％是非卡塔尔人。去年发生的阿拉伯之春被巴林粉碎之际，海湾国家招募了外国雇佣军，以填补沙特军力的空白，确保形势的顺利发展。一些阿拉伯国家拥有强大的军事力量，如埃及、伊拉克和利比亚。但是在它们的政权发生改变、品尝胜利果实之前，对帮助叙利亚的反对派丝毫提不起一点兴趣。
叙利亚的反对派越来越呼吁国际社会的干预。或许海湾的阿拉伯国家和西方政府会对目前叙利亚的困境表示支持。但是，不幸的是，当下叙利亚的悲剧会继续演变为一场集政治、军事不作为为一体的风暴。哈马，迪拉，霍姆斯和伊德利卜的人们将会看到其余力量轻易地放弃，根本看不到全球经济和政治力量从西方转移到其余地区的明显态势。
Actors wearing masks of Vladimir Putin and Bashar Assad dump bloodied body bags outside the UN building in New York as members of the Security Council meet to discuss the Syrian crisis. (Jan. 24, 2012)
Gulf Arab countries, led by Qatar’s Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, have stepped up their criticism of the Syrian regime and recalled their observers from the Arab League mission to Syria. It is expected that they would favour a United Nations resolution advocating military intervention. But don’t expect much to transpire. As the death toll continues to rise above 5,000 Syrian lives, it is time to come to terms with the likelihood of a protracted stalemate. Unlike the dramatic and rapid overthrow of other Arab regimes, the Syrian impasse will continue as suspicions and divisions among world powers produce continued inaction.
Russian and Chinese support for the Syrian regime will ensure two powerful Security Council vetoes to any resolution calling for armed intervention and toughened economic sanctions. Both believe that they were duped last year by western and NATO parties in the implementation of UN resolution 1973, which was meant to defend Libyan civilians but led to the overthrow of the Gadhafi regime. These two rising economic powers are adamant about putting western states in their place. They refuse to see the UN used as a vehicle to legitimize U.S. and European foreign policy interests.
The decision on Syria is closely related to that on Iran. As western governments push for a tougher UN sanctions regime for an alleged nuclear weapons program, the Russians and Chinese will refuse to go along and jeopardize their military and economic ties with Iran.
Moreover, these two states view proposed UN resolutions on Syria and Iran as tactics having a common western goal: to produce regime change throughout the region.
At the same time, Russian and Chinese support for the Syrians complements their own perverse narrative on the root cause of domestic opposition on the streets of Moscow and Tibet: “Western powers are funneling ideas and money to insurgent movements, leading to foreign sponsored terrorism and protests.”
This all-too-familiar-line is repeated continuously by Syria’s Bashar Assad. Support for protestors’ rights to demonstrate is interpreted as interference in the sovereignty of these countries.
Due to the economic crisis, western powers have been weakened and both the Russians and the Chinese perceive this. Fiscal pressures in the United States and Europe mean that there will be little enthusiasm for another war. Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy, two of the largest contributors to NATO forces, face stiff re-election campaigns in 2012, and their claims of foreign policy success have not placated domestic criticism of their economic policies.
Similarly, the Russians and the Chinese are also undergoing leadership changes this year and both presidents in-waiting, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, are hardliners who will refuse to compromise with western interests at the UN.
As for the Arab Gulf countries that are championing the case against Assad at the UN, they are small sheikdoms that don’t have armies to speak of. Qatar has an army of 11,000, 70 per cent of it manned by non-Qataris. And when the Bahrainis crushed their own Arab Spring uprisings last year, the Gulf countries needed to hire foreign mercenaries to fill the ranks of Saudi forces to get the job done. Arab countries that have larger armies — Egypt, Iraq and Libya — are not the least bit interested in helping the Syrian opposition when their own regime changes have yet to bare the fruits of success.
Increasingly, elements of the Syrian opposition are calling on the international community to intervene. The Gulf Arab states and western governments may be sympathetic to the Syrian plight. But, unfortunately, the Syrian tragedy will continue as the perfect storm of political and military inaction prevails. The people of Hama, Deraa, Homs and Idlib will see this simply as abandonment and not as a symptom of the shift in global economic and political power from the West to the rest.
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