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三哥看中国经济发展模式【来源】：China’s $22 trillion time-bomb
【译者】：三泰虎
【正文翻译】：
For years, a wispy, gossamer dream has been spun by economists working for Wall Street investment banks about how China has managed the impossible: high growth with a very low debt-to-GDP ratio.
The dream has been so aggressively sold that almost everybody believes it, including editors of this newspaper who have written glowingly about China’s growth, how far ahead it is of India, how India should give up this race once and for all and so on.
几年来，在华尔街投资银行工作的经济学家虚构了一个飘渺的梦想，即中国完成了不可能办到的事情：高增长、低债务率。
这个梦想被疯狂炒作。几乎每个人都相信了，包括报纸编辑们。他们热心报道中国的发展、中国如何遥遥领先印度、印度应该如何彻底放弃这场竞赛等。
Like all things churned out by Wall Street, this romantic story is also complete rubbish.
Regardless of the level of education, we all behave the same way when we analyse countries: we land at the airport, see multi-lane highways, gleaming skyscrapers in the city centre, massive infrastructure development, teeming shopping malls, tall apartment blocks and golf courses.
And immediately jump to the conclusion that this country has done it. It has made it.
If you are an Indian, you say this country has left India behind by 100 or 200 years.
正如华尔街所炮制出来的一切，这个浪漫故事也是胡说八道。
不管教育水平如何，我们分析国家的方式都相同：我们抵达机场，看到多车道的高速公路、市区炫目的摩天楼、大规模基础设施开发、热闹的购物中心、高层公寓住宅区和高尔夫球场。
我们立刻得出结论：这个国家做到了，成功了。
如果你是一名印度人，你会说这个国家甩了印度100年或者200年。
But it is instructive to remember what a crafty villain in an old Hindi movie said: “Har badi kaamyabi ke peeche koi gunaah chhupa hai…” (Behind every great success, lies hidden a great crime).
Just as behind nearly every rapid economic growth story, lies hidden, debt.
Usually lots of it. Just like Ireland that went from being a really poor country in the 1980s to getting to the top of European Union’s per capital GDP league tables – all within 20 years or so.
一部老印地语电影里的一名狡猾罪犯说的话还是有教育意义的：“每一个伟大成功背后，隐藏一个伟大犯罪…”
类似地，几乎每个经济快速发展的故事，隐藏着不为人知的债务。
通常这样的例子有很多，比如爱尔兰在1980年代的时候是个十足的穷国，仅在20年左右，成为欧盟人均GDP最高的国家之一。
China is no exception.
The common wisdom is that China runs a very low debt-to-GDP ratio of around 30 per cent (this ratio was in the low 20s till 2007 but jumped sharply during the 2008 crisis), which gives it lots of firepower to keep reflating the economy and to keep recapitalising its banks.
The reality is that this ratio is plain wrong. China’s growth model is based on the oldest rapid economic growth hormone available: debt.
中国也不例外。
一般人认为，中国的债务与国内生产总值的比率大约是30%（2007年前这个比率是20%多一点，但在2008年危机期间急剧上升）。这让中国有实力提升经济和对银行进行资本重组。
现实是，这个比率明摆着是错的。中国发展模式依靠的是刺激经济快速发展的最古老方法：债务。
China has debt at various levels and pockets. Let’s add to this central debt, the local government and provincial debt figures.
This figure is around $1.9 trillion. Let’s further add the obligations of the Ministry of Railways. That’s $360 billion. And finally let’s also add 80 per cent of outstanding bank credit.
This adds $6.3 trillion. We add bank loans to national debt because unlike most countries, China uses banks for nearly all of its directed, policy lending programmes.
For example, the stimulus of 2008-09 was financed largely by banks. By pushing its lending via the banks’ balance sheets, China creates the impression of a country that has very low budget deficits and, of course, very low central debt.
We take 80 per cent of bank debt into the national debt figures under the assumption that 20 per cent goes towards consumer and private sector credit.
中国各级别政府都有债务。让我们把中央政府债务、地方政府债务和省级政府债务加起来。
加起来的数据大约是1.9万亿美元。让我们再把铁道部的3600亿美元债务加进去。还有80%的未偿还银行贷款。
这样又增加了6.3万亿美元。我们之所以将银行贷款算入国家债务，是因为中国的银行贷款几乎都是国家主导的政策性贷款项目。
比如，2008-09年的经济刺激项目主要是由银行融资。中国将债务转化成银行的资产负债，给人造成了一种印象，即国家的预算赤字非常低。当然，中央债务也是非常低。
我们是假设20%的贷款是面向消费者和私营领域，那么剩余的80%银行债务计入国家债务。
Now let’s total up the few trillions we have unearthed. As of 2011, this figure amounted to a tad over $10 trillion!
And the ratio of total debt to GDP becomes a more ominous 149 per cent.
Mind you, there may be other debts that are obligations of the central government that we don’t know about since reliability of data in China is suspect, to say the least.
It is eminently possible that debt is understated and GDP overstated.
现在，让我们把已知的几万亿美元加起来。截至2011年，这个数据总计是10万亿美元多一点！
债务与国内生产总值的比率变成149%，这是个不祥的预兆。
注意，由于中国数据是否可靠值得商榷，可能还有其他中央债务是我们所不知道的。
极有可能的是债务被少报，GDP被过度夸大。
But the story gets worse from hereon. China’s growth model is highly capital or, more accurately, debt intensive.
We have calculated a ratio called DIG (debt intensity of GDP), that is, the amount of debt needed to generate one unit of GDP.
This ratio started out being in the 0.9 to 1.2 range in the first half of the nineties.
During the Asian crisis, this ratio worsened to around two as China again threw loads of debt to come out of the slowdown.
The ratio subsided a bit to below one in the boom years from 2003 to 2007. But it jumped dramatically to over four in 2008 as China threw a huge amount of money at an unprecedented slowdown.
情况从此变得更糟糕。中国的发展模式是资本密集型，或者更准确地说，是债务密集型的。
我们计算了一种叫做DIG的比率，也就是说每产生一个单位GDP，会产生多少债务。
在1990年代前期，这个比率刚开始是0.9到1.2。
在亚洲金融危机期间，为了走出低迷，中国又一次大规模举债，这个比率更加恶化，上升到2。
在2003年到2007年的繁荣时期，这个比率下降到1以下。但是，在2008年前所未有的经济放缓中，中国投入了巨额资金，这个比率急剧上升，超过了4。
The trouble is that given the overall low growth environment globally and the worsening trade situation for China, generating a unit of GDP growth now requires higher and higher doses of debt.
And, in hindsight, we will look back and say this stimulus of 2008-09 was a colossal mistake.
So what does the DIG ratio lead us to? See the table.
As we can see, each crisis leads to a worsening of the DIG ratio and, concomitantly, a sharp worsening of the total debt-to-GDP ratio as China starts building bridges and roads to nowhere in order to reflate.
现在的困境是，由于全球整体的低增长环境和中国正在恶化的贸易形势，产生一个单位GDP增长会带来越来越高的债务。
在后面，我们将回过头来看，2008年到2009年的刺激计划是个巨大错误。
所以，DIG比率给我们带来了什么？看看图表。
正如我们看到的，每场危机导致DIG比率恶化。随之而来的，由于中国仅仅为了提升经济而建设桥梁和公路，债务与国内生产总值的比率急剧上升。
The bigger problem lies ahead. Given this inclined treadmill model, if China grows faster, the bigger the debt problem becomes.
For the sake of calculation, let’s assume the DIG ratio goes to 1.7 over the next four years till 2016 and that China wishes to grow at eight per cent.
The total debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of 2016 becomes 180 per cent, up from the 150 per cent of 2011! In absolute terms, China’s total debt will reach $22 trillion.
Coupled with a worsening demographic picture, this high total debt-to-GDP ratio becomes a trap from which there is virtually no escape.
更大的问题还在前面。正如斜跑步机模型，中国跑得越快，债务就变得越大。
为了方便计算，我们假设DIG比率在2016年前的四年里将达到1.7，中国能如愿增长8%。
总的债务与国内生产总值的比率，将从2011年的150%上升到2016年底的180%！按绝对价值估算，中国总债务将达到22万亿美元。
加上更加恶化的人口结构，如此高的债务与国内生产总值比率将是没有实际出路的困境。
To compound the problem, China’s private consumption expenditure (PCE) to GDP has declined sharply to 33 per cent from 55 per cent 20 years ago.
The ratio of net exports to GDP has fallen to 3.9 per cent in 2010, from 8.8 per cent in 2007.
It’s only the ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP that has jumped to over 50 per cent in 2011 from 25 per cent a few years ago.
As is clear, if China has to maintain its pace of growth, it has to pile on more debt. If it slows down, its social powder keg starts getting incendiary.
为了解决这个问题，中国私人消费开支（PCE）占GDP的比率从20年前的55%急剧下降到33%。
净出口占GDP的比率从2007年的8.8%下降到2010年的3.9%。
只有固定资产总值占GDP的比率从几年前的25%上升到2011年的超过50%。
很明显，如果中国想要保持发展速度，就必须继续堆积债务。如果发展速度下滑，社会火药桶就会被点燃。
We are not even counting the burgeoning, widespread non-performing loans problem that is looming large and will, in all probability, lead to China’s fourth systemic banking crisis in less than 25 years.
If this is a growth model, then it is even worse than the Western growth model.
我们甚至没有计算急剧增多的不良贷款，这些已经赫然显现，很有可能导致中国在不到25年内的第四次银行系统危机。
如果这是个发展模式，那么它甚至比西方发展模式更糟糕。
So, the bullets China has in order to emerge from this rock-and-a-hard-place situation are few, if any at all. China is indeed riding the tiger.
In contrast, India’s is the Toyota Prius of growth models. India should simply avoid the trap of excessive public spending on infrastructure.
That’s where almost every country in Asia, including Japan in the nineties to China and Dubai now, has run into problems.
India’s growth model is infinitely more robust and time will prove this to a world bedazzled by China.
所以，中国想要走出这种进退维谷困境，即使有方法，也是很少。中国实际上骑虎难下。
与此相反，印度的发展模式类似丰田普锐斯的发展模式。印度应该避免陷入基础设施的过度公共开支困境。
这几乎是所有亚洲国家陷入的困境，包括90年代的日本与现在的中国和迪拜。
印度的发展模式无疑更加强健。时间将会向被中国弄得眼花撩乱的世界证明这点。
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【评论翻译】：
Thank g0d for small mercies.
by aus ant (View MyPage) on Mar 03, 2012 11:33 AM
Good India didnt rake up all this debt like china.
At least in China, they have the infrastructure to show for it.
If india had attempted the same, only our netas, babus and entrepreneurs pockets w’d have bulged.
印度没有像中国那样堆积债务。
中国至少有基础设施可以炫耀。如果印度效仿，只有我们的先生大人们、政客们和企业家的口袋才会鼓起来。
Feel Good
by aus ant (View MyPage) on Mar 03, 2012 11:29 AM
I feel better after reading this.
I was under the impression that india was doing worse than China.
Now i know better.
Thankyou!
看了这篇文章后，我感觉更好了。
我曾经认为印度比中国更差。现在，我知道印度更好。谢谢！
This author is illiterate and clueless
by David Dak (View MyPage) on Mar 03, 2012 03:58 AM
I have read this article and read every comment up to now. I can see that every commentator is much better than this author to comment China and India’s economy and development issues. I am speechless to this article. It is not worth to write any comment about this article because this author is illiterate and clueless about world economy and affair. He is clueless. I am writing here because of some commentators like piri and Raj Gupta, because of their thoughtful, informative, and logical comments.
我把文章和每个评论都看了。我发现每个发表评论的人都能比作者更好的评论中国和印度的经济和发展问题。我对这篇文章感到无语。作者对世界经济事务完全无知，我们不值得对这篇文章发表任何评论。他是愚蠢的。我之所以评论，是因为一些人发表了深思熟虑、有益和合乎逻辑的评论，比如piri和Raj Gupta。
Not a precise article
by Arun (View MyPage) on Mar 03, 2012 03:51 AM
You cannot compare India and China in the same scale. Look at the corruption in India today. It would exceed the debt of all countries of the world. With infrastructure development, China turns its spending into assets. So, it would have as much worth of assets as it spends.
But in India, money is stashed in swiss and singapore accounts, economists jus pumping out claims that India will be a super power… but when the whole world economy collapses, USA will be left with roads, rail and air network that can be unbeaten. China’s strides and Europes stalled growth still has great infractural assets with a good knowledge assets. India will be left out with a pathetic network of road, rail and air connections with swollen middle class with cars and match box apartments in the over grown cities and extra large inflation. What we have in India is a temporary manufacturing base that can be shifted any time to any part of the world. Even Tata motors are building Jaguars and Land Rovers in China… not India….
Think about the reality.
印度和中国并不处于同一级别， 你不能进行比较。看看印度如今的腐败。它将超过世界所有国家的债务。中国投资基础设施，将其转变成资产。所以，中国的资产和开支一样多。
但在印度，资金被存在瑞士和新加坡银行账户里。经济学家只是抛出印度将成为超级大国的言论…当全世界经济崩溃的时候，美国留下的是无人能及的公路、铁路和航空网。中国的跨越式进步和欧洲的发展停滞也留下了不错的基础设施。印度留下的只是可怜的公路、铁路和航空网、过度夸大的中产阶级，过度开发的城市里的汽车和火柴盒似的公寓、过度的通货膨胀。我们印度拥有的是临时的制造业基地。这些随时会转移到世界的其他地方。塔塔汽车甚至在中国生产捷豹路虎汽车…而不是在印度生产…
考虑一下现实吧。
The most manipulative article I have ever read
by Nikhil (View MyPage) on Mar 02, 2012 09:00 PM | Hide replies
Every possible figure is skewed to create a particular argument . For any country honestly what matters is external debt, Internal debt can always be adjusted by policy changes . Now look at China’s GDP size to external Debt and India GDP size to external debt . Very easily you will know we are deeper in debt and more mismanaged an economy and the sad part is the wealth distribution in India is far worse than in China which is more important than economic figures
we have a huge section of population that is below poverty and the middle class is fighting the crumbling infrastructure wasting his time travelling everyday in pollution and frustratingly slow public transport .For the rich who live and work close and travel in ac cars life in India may not be bad but a huge realy huge segment of population is living a very poor quality life with hardly any quality time for family in India . Many Indians wont even be realising how much time is this poor infrastructure wasting from their lives it is only after u live abroad for a while u can realise that poor Indians r made to suffer and then people like come and tell them Indian economy is doing great no need to build infrastructure go slow … it the middle class whose life is wasted not yours
每个数据都是用于支持特定观点的。对于任何国家来说，真正关键的是外债。内债是可以通过改变政策来调整的。现在看看中国GDP规模相对外债的比率和印度GDP规模相对外债的比率。你将很容易的发现谁债务更重，那个经济体管理更不好。令人伤心的是，印度的财富分配要比中国糟糕得多。这比经济数据要更重要。
我们有大量的人口处于贫困线以下。中产阶级在令人崩溃的基础设施中挣扎。他们每天在令人沮丧的缓慢公共交通中浪费时间。对于那些居住和工作较近、出行有空调汽车的富人来说，情况可能不是那么糟糕。但大多数人生活质量很差，几乎没有时间呆在家里。许多印度人甚至没有意识到，可怜的基础设施浪费了自己多少时间。只有在外国呆一会后，你才能认识到贫穷的印度人是如何受苦。有人喜欢告诉印度人，印度经济表现非常棒，没有必要修建基础设施，应该慢慢来…可是中产阶级的时间被浪费了，而不是那些人的。
Re: The most manipulative article I have ever read
by shubasrikrishna (View MyPage) on Mar 02, 2012 09:14 PM
Very well said.
Iam doing a very business in Tamilnadu, but we still do not have access to Power ( 12 hours power cut), the roads are in shambles and no access to water…
The middle class in China have no such problems.
Most importantly the whole world depends on China for manufactured goods. They increase the prices any multiple of times, the world will have to buy.
The world including India is too lazy to produce, use its resources and the bogus reasons of land availability, pollution and other infrastructure will always depend on China.
讲得非常好。我在泰米尔纳德邦做生意，但我们仍然没有电力供应（每天12小时断电），公路一片混乱，没有水供应…
中国的中产阶级没有这样的问题。最重要的是，全世界依靠中国生产的产品。他们把产品价格提高再多倍，世界将不得不买单。
全世界，包括印度，都不事生产，不利用自己的资源，而是以虚假的土地问题、污染和其他基础设施问题来做推脱。全世界将一直依靠中国。
Re: Re: The most manipulative article I have ever read
by Nikhil (View MyPage) on Mar 02, 2012 09:21 PM
Yes u r so right , take an example of Tirupur which is in tamilnadu , Indian entrepreneurs struggled so hard to create a textile base and look at the infrastructure of that place till date .Govt,infrastucture and our policies only create more problems in people’s life ,China manufacturers get electricity so cheap as compared to India because they went nuclear long time back and can produce cheap elec.Mr author,stop fooling Indians there r people on this forum who have visited and seen China on ground level maybe u r the one who went only to airports and came back I live here, day in day out i see how they r getting richer and as the person above said even increasing prices and still the world has no choice but to buy from them .
你讲得非常正确。就拿泰米尔纳德邦的蒂鲁普作为例子。印度企业家在那里建立纺织业基地困难重重。看看那里至今的基础设施。基础设施和政策只给人们的生活带来更多的问题。因为中国很久就有核发电，可以低成本发电，所以相比印度，中国制造商可以非常便宜的获得电力供应。作者先生，停止愚弄印度人。这个论坛上有人亲身去过中国。可能你只是到过那里的机场，然后就回来了。我住在这里。日复一日，我都看到他们变得更富裕。就像上面的人说的，即使提高价格，世界没有选择，只好买单。
The only 2 conformed debts in this article.
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Mar 03, 2012 12:36 AM
One is China’s local gov’s debts of 10 trillion RMB, or 1.5 trillion US$. Another one is the debt of Ministry of Railways’s US$300 billion. China’s central gov has little debts, maybe be less than US$500 billion. Chinese gov’s debts are different from other countries since Chinese gov is also a big investor, such as MOR.
China’s MOR has a mordern network of 91000km with more than 10000km of high-speed railways. For such as big system, US$300 billion is just a piece of cake. China’s MOR is a money maker, not a money loser today, and MOR adds more than 8000km of new lines in 2010 alone, that’s almost the number that India has added in 65 years after independence, let alone China’s railways have much better quality and are equiped with much more modern technology.
（这篇文章只有两个债务是合理的。）一个是中国10万亿人民币的地方债务，或者说1.5万亿美元。另一个是铁道部的3000亿美元债务。中国中央政府的债务非常低，可能少于5000亿美元。由于中国政府也是一个大投资者，比如铁道部，所以中国政府的债务不同于其他国家。
中国铁路有9.1万公里的铁路网，其中超过1万公里是高铁。对于如此大的一个系统，3000亿美元只是小菜一碟。如今，中国铁路部门是赚钱的，不是亏钱。铁道部仅在2010年就新增超过8000公里铁路。这几乎相当于印度独立65年以来新建的铁路。更不用说中国铁路的质量要好得多，配备的现代技术要多得多。
Why are they so many low IQ economists and news writers
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Mar 03, 2012 12:28 AM
Almost all Chinese banks are trading in stock market and big foreign banks and investors hold some shares. Chinese banks are the most profitable banks in the world today and on the top of market value of all banks in the world. Foreign investors know less than this writer? What a pity! We still remember that Indian media claimed Chinese banks were not stable as India’s. But the truth was that ICICI was almost collapsed in 2008 while Chinese banks are stronger and stronger.
几乎所有中国银行都有在股票市场交易，外国银行和投资者拥有一些股份。在当今世界，中国银行是最赚钱的银行。在市值上，中国银行是全世界所有银行最高的。外国投资者比作者更无知？真可怜！我们仍然记得印度媒体声称中国银行没有印度银行那么稳定。事实是，印度工业信贷投资银行几乎在2008年破产，而中国银行越来越强大。
原创翻译：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com
India
by RSSHINDU (View MyPage) on Mar 02, 2012 09:00 PM
Rediff, please do a similar working on Indian debt. At least China has grown rapidly using the debt. Where is India in the global picture. When we say we are an Asian power, we just flatter ourselves. We can not even compare our metros to villages in the European countries or US.
The reason behind all this is corruption. It is prevalent at every level. Unless the entire system is revamped and all the existing rodents thrown out without mercy, India will be what it is now – “A Developing Country with a potential to become a super power” forever.
Rediff，请以同样方法计算印度债务。至少中国通过债务快速发展。印度在世界版图上的位置呢。当我们说自己是亚洲大国的时候，我们只是自以为是。我们甚至不能将自己的大城市和欧洲或者美国的农村相比较。
一切的原因在于腐败。从上到下都很普遍。除非革新整个系统和毫不留情的驱逐所有蛀虫，否则印度将永远是——“拥有潜力成为超级大国的发展中国家”。
silly question..
by Rediffis aHypocrite (View MyPage) on Mar 02, 2012 07:45 PM | Hide replies
ok here’s a silly question. Who is giving money to china’s financial institutions for them to lend it to their govt?
Anyway once infrastucture like roads, power stations, airport, sea ports, R&D centers etc are built by (borrowed) money they generally tend to payoff in the long run as they last atleast for a century if not more. So the argument that a default is imminent or we should not build infra on brrowed money is false as now china can payoff its debt using its infrastucture.
Compare that to India’s growth(or lack of it). The 60-70% money spent on anything and everything is wasted in the form of corruption, misuse, shoddy workmanship, lack of planning, offical stupidity etc. So where is the ROI on this stuff? Besides India’s debt and fiscal deficit is not rosy as well for the author to sneer down on China’s debt problems. Atleast they’ve got something to show for all the money they’ve borrowed and spent! We still have a lot to learn from China economy wise.
那是个愚蠢的问题。谁会借钱给中国金融机构，让其用于借给政府？
不管怎么说，一旦公路、发电站、机场、港口、研发中心等基础设施通过贷款建立起来以后，这些基础设施至少堪用100年，从长期来说，债务是可以被偿清的。所以，债务违约即将出现的观点、或者我们不应该通过借钱来修建基础设施的观点是错误的。中国可以通过基础设施带来的收入偿清债务。
将中国的发展和印度的发展进行比较。印度60%到70%的资金浪费在腐败、滥用、粗制滥造、缺乏规划、官员的愚蠢等。所以，印度央行在这方面如何？印度的债务和财政赤字并不是那么美好，不足以让作者嘲笑中国的债务问题。通过借来的钱，他们至少有一些东西可以炫耀。我们仍然需要向中国学习经济智慧。
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