本帖最后由 武大郎 于 2012-3-10 02:31 编辑
【中文标题】计划生育的窘境
【原文标题】China’s One-Child Policy Dilemma for Leaders
【登载媒体】路透社
【来源地址】http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-01/china-one-child-policy-is-poisoned-chalice-for-xi-s-new-leadership-regime.html
【译 者】武大郎
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
As the world’s largest national congress meets in Beijing to prepare for new leadership, likely successor Xi Jinping will inherit a roadblock to growth dating back almost to the era of Mao Zedong: the one-child policy.
作为全世界最大的全国代表会议，两会将推举出下一届领导班子，而作为下一届领导人的习近平将面临一个发展的大障碍——计划生育政策。
Implemented in 1979 to alleviate poverty, the restriction on family size will cut the number of 15- to 24-year-olds, the main stay of factories that drove growth for two decades, by 27percent to 164 million by 2025, the United Nations estimates. In the same time, investment that fueled more than half of last year’s 9.2 percent expansion will be constrained by soaring pension and health-care costs as those over the age of 65 surge78 percent to 195 million. 这项政策从1979年开始执行，联合国预测，到2025年时，中国15至24岁的人口数量将为一亿六千四百万，与现在相比下降27%，这个年龄段的人口是工厂的主力军，而这些工厂又是二十年内推动经济发展的动力。与此同时，65岁以上的人口将会激增78%达到一亿九千五百万，迅速增加的养老金和医疗保险将会限制大批投资，而中国在去年有超过一半的经济增长有赖于这些资金的投入。 Nurses carry 30-day-old quadruplets, two baby girls and two baby boys, as they pose for a photo at a hospital in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China. Source: AFP/Getty Images 护士们抱着30天的四胞胎，其中两男两女。 A baby is pulled along in its pushchair on a street in Beijing. Photographer: Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images 北京，一个婴儿在街上“开着”婴儿车。 Four pregnant women relax in a coffee shop during a support group meeting at a shopping center in Shanghai. In Shanghai the fertility rate was about 0.79 in the year ended October 2010, according to the latest data from the city’s statistics department. Photographer: Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images 在上海购物中心，一个孕妇帮助会议期间，四位孕妇在咖啡厅休息。根据上海统计部门的数据，截至到2010年，上海的出生率为0.79%。 The dilemma facing China’s cities is that an end to the one-child policy, implemented three years after Mao’s death, would mean more money needed for schools and child facilities just as local governments face surging bills for pensions and elderly care. Photographer: Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images 中国面临的窘境在于，取消计划生育政策意味着需要更多的资金来投资学校和儿童设施。
Constriction on family size will cut the number of 15- to 24-year-olds, the mainstay of factories that drove growth for two decades, by 27 percent to 164 million by 2025, the United Nations estimates. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg 截至2025年，15-24岁的人口数量将下降27%，他们是工厂的主要劳动力，推动着20年内中国经济的发展。
Increasing the fertility rate to 2.3 children per woman, from about 1.6, would cut the decline in the workforce in half by 2050 to 8.8 percent, from 17.3 percent, according to the UN. Photographer: Keith Bedford/Bloomberg 根据联合国的预测，若把中国的出生率从每个妇女生育子女1.6人提升到2.3人将，那么到2050年，中国的劳动力下降比率将从17.3下降到8.8%。 Women push babies in prams through a park in Beijing. Photographer: Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images 北京，妇女推着孩子穿过公园。
Failure to scrap the law risks accelerating a demographic change that the Beijing-based Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy estimates could eventually cut China’s growth in half. With China accounting for about 30 percent of global expansion, the restraint would affect companies such as automaker General Motors Co. and Yum! Brands Inc., operator of KFC restaurants.
如果不取消这项政策，中国人口结构的改变将会加速，北京布鲁金斯-清华公共政策中心预测，这将使中国的经济增长减半。由于中国占全球经济增长的30%，该政策对人口的限制将会影响很多公司，例如通用、百胜和肯德基。
“This is one of the last chances to change the policy before things get much worse,” said Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist with Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. “If they start to lift the one-child restriction on urban dwellers now, the economy can get a boost from people still willing to have more than one kid.” “这（两会）是改变这一政策的最后时机”，香港摩根士丹利在中国的首席经济学家乔海伦这样说道，“如果现在能够取消一胎的限制，那些仍有意愿多要孩子的人将会推动经济的提升”。
Increasing the fertility rate to 2.3 children per woman, from about 1.6, would cut the decline in the workforce in half by 2050 to 8.8 percent, from 17.3 percent, according to the UN. That would reduce China’s reliance on exports as an increase in births stokes demand for consumer products such as Danone SA’s baby formula and Hengan International Group Co.’s diapers. 根据联合国的预测，若把中国的出生率从每个妇女生育子女1.6人提升到2.3人将，那么到2050年，中国的劳动力下降比率将从17.3下降到8.8%。增长的出生率将增大人们对一些产品的需求，例如法国达能SA的婴儿配方奶粉和恒安国际集团有限公司的尿布，进而减少中国对出口贸易的依赖。
Baby Consumers Relaxing the one-child policy is “urgent” to help shift the economy toward greater consumption, Qiao said. “Increases to the labor force will take 16 years but people will have babies now and the boost for consumption will come right away.”
Khiem Do, Hong Kong-based head of multi asset strategy at Baring Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about $46 billion, said an easing of the policy would help “consumer, housing, consumer durables and construction” industries. He declined to name specific stocks, citing company policy.
That may not be enough to persuade the almost 3,000 delegates to next week’s National People’s Congress to reverse rules that have been a pillar of Communist Party policy for three decades and are backed by cities including Shanghai, which face rising pension costs.
“A sudden U-turn is not likely,” said Cai Yong, a fellow at the Carolina Population Center at the University of NorthCarolina, Chapel Hill. “The government is more worried about short-term problems. More and more people see the problem but there’s no urgency to change it because it’s slow burning.” 儿童消费 放宽独生子女政策十分“紧要”，可以扩大内需，乔说道，“劳动力的增长要话费16年的时间，但人民如果现在有了孩子，对消费的刺激马上就会来到”。 负责监管460亿美元财产的霸菱亚洲多元资产配置主管杜敬创说道，放宽独生子女政策有助于推动消费、住房、耐用消费品和建设等行业。他以公司政策为由拒绝透漏具体的公司名称。 但要打动下周参加两会的近三千名代表，这些理由可能还不够，因为这项政策被党列为基本国策已有三十年，同时也被包括上海在内的很多城市所支持，因为上海面临着巨大的养老压力。 “这项政策的大转变是不太可能的”，北卡人口中心研究员蔡勇说道，“政府更关心短期问题。很多人都看到了这个问题（计划生育带来的问题），但由于问题显现缓慢，他们缺乏改变现状的紧迫感”。 Unwound SlowlyThe policy instead is more likely to be unwound gradually. Some delegates may push for relaxations in the law at the NPC, which starts on March 5, Wang said.
The government already allows a few exceptions, such as permitting rural families to have a second child if the first isa girl. Couples in some regions are allowed a second child if both parents are single children. Minority ethnic groups are excluded from the restriction. Those who can afford to may pay a fine for having a second or third baby.
“China is going to change its one-child policy,” said Ronald Wan, a Hong Kong-based managing director at China Merchants Securities Co. “It won’t be overnight. They will fine-tune bit by bit. Dairy milk and those companies related to children like education, clothing will benefit.” 缓慢改变 更可能的是，这项政策被缓慢改变。王说道，一些代表可能会在3月5号的两会上提议放宽相关法律。 在独生子女政策上，已经有一些特例：农村家庭在第一胎是女孩的情况下允许有第二胎；一些地区，夫妻双方都是独生子女的家庭允许有第二胎；少数民族不受政策的限制；那些交得起罚款的也能有第二胎。 “中国将会改变计划生育政策”，中国招商证券有限公司常务董事温天纳说道，“但改变不可能发生在一夜之间。政府会一点点的微调。制奶公司，与儿童相关的公司（例如教育公司）和服装类的公司将会因此受益”。
Urban Dilemma The dilemma facing China’s cities is that an end to the one-child policy, implemented three years after Mao’s death,would mean more money needed for schools and children’s facilities just as local governments face surging bills for pensions and care for the elderly.
The Shanghai Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission last year rejected a proposal to allow couples to have two children because it would strain a system that already has to deal with an aging population. Deputy Director Sun Chang min said the one-child policy is a basic national principle and the overall population remains elevated, according to an Oct.27 statement on the government’s website.
China’s “God-awful one-child policy” will change the proportion of elderly people to workers so rapidly over the next 20 years that there’s “no way” the nation can sustain its current level of economic growth, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden told students at Florida State University on Feb. 6, prior to a visit by Xi to the U.S., according to an official transcript. 城区的窘境 城市所面临的窘境在于，计划生育的取消意味着需要更多的资金来投资学校和儿童设施，与此同时政府还面临着巨大养老金和养老保险压力。 去年，上海人口和计划生育委员会拒绝了允许二胎的提议，因为这会给已经面临严重老龄化问题的城市系统带来更大的压力。副主任孙长敏说道，计划生育政策是国家的基本国策，并且根据政府网站11月27号的数据，我国的总人口数还是在不断增加的。 在习近平访美之前，美国副总统拜登在2月6号给弗洛里达州立大学的学生演讲时说道，在下一个20年内，中国的计划生育政策将迅速改变中国老年人和年轻人比例的平衡，中国经济的迅速增长也将无法继续保持。
Pension Bill Expanding China’s rudimentary pension system to all workers would cost 7 percent of GDP, or $411 billion, rising to 15percent of GDP by 2050, as the number of pensioners triples, according to Richard Jackson, director of the Global Aging Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The pool of workers able to pay taxes will fall by 233 million to 682 million, UN projections show.
“To experience that level of aging with basically an unfunded retirement safety net is a recipe for serious trouble,” said Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale University and former non-executive chairman for Morgan Stanley in Asia.
Workers without any security over pension income will save rather than spend, making rebalancing toward more consumption and away from investment-led growth impossible, Roach said in a telephone interview.
“China’s got to really relax the family planning policy but it’s also got to move aggressively to fund the safety net,” Roach said. “Neither one of those has happened.” 养老负担 据华盛顿战略与国际研究中心的全球老龄化倡议主管理查德·杰克逊所言，不断扩张并面向所有劳动者的基本养老体系将占用GDP的7%（合4110亿美元），而到2050年，由于养老对象增至三倍，这一比例将涨到15%。而联合国的预测也显示，纳税劳动者数量将减少两亿三千三百万，降至六亿八千二百万。 “这样的老龄化水平，配上这种没有资金保障的退休安全体系，真是让人痛苦” ，耶鲁大学教授，前摩根士丹利亚洲非执行董事长斯蒂芬·洛奇如是说道。 在一次电话采访中，洛奇说道，“那些没有养老保险的劳动者将选择存钱而非消费，这样的情况下，扩大内需以及改变投资主导型增长的方式是不可能的”。 “中国需要在真正意义上放宽计划生育政策，同时积极为养老保险体系投入”，洛奇说道，“但两者均未发生”。
‘Malthusian Shadow’ China’s reluctance to end the policy is also rooted in concerns a population explosion would hurt economic progress, a theory proposed by political economist Thomas Malthus two centuries ago, said Wang Feng, a director of the Brookings-Tsinghua center, a venture between China’s Tsinghua University and the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
“The Malthusian shadow is really dark and heavy over the head of China,” Wang said. “China has lost so much time already. Now time is really running out.”
So, while some delegates at the NPC may call for changes, the policy won’t be on the official agenda this year, said Wang. His center estimates China’s demographic profile will gradually reduce annual average expansion to about 5 percent or less, from10 percent in the previous three decades.
“China’s demographic changes will also have far-reaching implications for the world economy, which has relied on China as a global factory for the past two decades and more,” Wang said.
Concerns that ending the policy will trigger a surge in births are misguided, according to Jackson, Wang and Cai. 马尔萨斯阴影 布鲁金斯-清华中心主任王峰说道，中国在取消计划生育上的犹豫还来源于人口激增会妨碍经济发展的考虑，这个理论由两世纪前的政治和经济学家马尔萨斯提出。 王峰说道，“马尔萨斯理论是中国的顾虑。中国为此已经浪费了太多的时间，而现在时间已经不多了”。 因此，即使今年两会上有代表提出改变，取消计划生育政策仍不会提上议程。他所在的中心预测，中国年龄结构的变化将会使中国的经济增长率从过去三十年的10%逐渐降至5%甚至更低。 王峰还说道，“由于世界经济的发展有赖于中国这座世界工厂，因此中国年龄结构的改变将对世界经济产生长远的影响”。 根据杰克逊、王峰以及蔡勇所言，取消计划生育将导致出生率的激增这种顾虑并不合理。
Temporary RespiteCai at the Carolina Population Center estimates an end to the restrictions would cause the fertility rate to rise only temporarily before falling back to 1.5 within five years. Jackson sees it rising to 1.8 or 1.9, while Wang says there “is no reason to believe it can go up to 2,” the rate a nation needs to prevent its population shrinking.
Japan’s fertility rate is 1.42 while in the U.S. it is 2.08.
Without measures to relax the one-child policy and encourage more children, China’s rate may slump to close to 1within 20 years, said Cai.
China is “shooting itself in the foot” and should offer incentives to families to have more children, said Wang. In Shanghai the fertility rate was about 0.79 in the year ended October 2010, according to the latest data from the city’s statistics department. 喘息之机 卡罗莱纳人口中心的蔡勇预测，取消计划生育导致的出生率增长只是暂时性的，五年内增长率将会掉回1.5%。杰克逊认为出生率会升到1.8%到1.9%之间，王峰则认为“出生率不可能超过2%”。有这样出生率的国家需要考虑的不是人口激增的问题，而是要考虑如何防止人口减少。 与此形成对比的是，日本的出生率为1.42%，美国的出生率为2.08%。 蔡勇说，若不放宽计划生育，并鼓励多生孩子，中国的出生率在20年内会暴跌至1%。 王峰认为，中国正在“搬石砸脚”，因此需要鼓励每个家庭要更多的孩子。根据上海的统计部门的数据，截至2010年11月份，上海的出生率为0.79%。
Aborted FetusesWorse still, the policy led to thousands of aborted fetuses, many of them female because of the importance of male children in Chinese society, causing a gender imbalance. A 2007 study by the State Population and Family Planning Commission said that by 2020 there will be 30 million more men of marriageable age than women, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency.
A “large group of unhappy, dissatisfied” men, unable to find wives, “is clearly a serious social concern,” said Wang.
Some parents travel to Hong Kong to have a second child in an effort to circumvent the rules, according to hospitals in the city. More than 230,000 babies were born to mainland mothers in Hong Kong in the decade to 2010, according to the city’s Census and Statistics Department.
“The one-child policy is definitely one of the important reasons mothers come to Hong Kong to give birth,” said CheungTak Hong, who runs the obstetrics and gynecology department at Hong Kong’s Prince of Wales Hospital. “China’s community, like in most Asian countries, still has deep-rooted values in liking the idea of a bigger family.” 流产胎儿 更加糟糕的是，这个政策产生了大量的流产胎儿，其中绝大多数是女孩，男孩在中国社会里的重要性导致了男女比例的不均。新华社报道说，根据国家人口和计划生育委员会的研究，到2020年，中国达到结婚年龄的男性将比女性多3000万。 王峰指出，这些因找不到妻子而“感到不满的大量”男性“显然是一个严重的社会问题”。 很多父母为了避开政策而跑到香港去生第二胎。根据香港统计处的数据，过去十年间，来自大陆的母亲共在香港产下23万名婴儿。 “计划生育政策绝对是大陆母亲们来到香港生孩子的重要原因之一”，管理香港威尔斯亲王医院产科和妇科部门的洪祥德如是说，“中国的社会同多数亚洲国家一样，偏向大家庭的观念根深蒂固”。
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