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本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 11:56 编辑
【中文标题】放心吧！中国之舟 翻不了。/ 中国经济走势稳定不会“倾覆”
【原文标题】China Not About To "Keel Over"
【登载媒体】福布斯
【来源地址】 http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/03/20/china-not-about-to-keel-over/
【译者】参考消息
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处
【译文地址】http://www.gold361.com/page/2012/0323/40653.shtml
China Not About To "Keel Over"
Kenneth Rapoza
3/20/2012 @ 9:06AM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/03/20/china-not-about-to-keel-over/
When a boat capsizes, it’s keel, or structural bottom half, sticks out of the water. When an air plane hits the runway and oxygen masks come flying out of the overhead cabin compartments and people scream for their lives, that’s called a hard landing. Neither of those descriptions can be used to describe the Chinese economy. Yet, a handful of pundits and analysts from New York to Hong Kong insist China is, well, D.O.A. Dead on arrival.
“The Chinese economy is a lot more stable than the investing public is giving it credit for,” said Edmund Harriss, a portfolio manager at Guinness Atkinson in London. “Saying that Chinese banks are about to keel over is simply not true.”
Last year, Harriss’ Asia Focus Fund (IASMX) won a Lipper Fund Award for for the best 10 year, risk adjusted performance among 21 Asia-Pacific mutual funds for 2010.
“For a crisis, you need unpayable short-term debt about to come due, and that’s not an issue in China. China is not Greece. Banks are well funded and so they can afford to roll over short-term debts if they need to,” he said in an interview last week.
China’s economy will slow down, but not because of a loss of momentum. Gone are the days of double digit, year over year economic growth. But inflation is under control…well under 5% on average. New cities are still being built from scratch. Incomes are rising. Urbanization trends remain. That story has not changed. The Boom is still in full force, only with a lower case b rather than a capital B followed by three exclamation marks. In short, for a mid to long term investment, China is still very much a growth story. And, arguably, the most stable growth story in the emerging markets. It is also the No. 2 economy in the world after the U.S. People shouldn’t be rooting for a Chinese hard landing just to prove that their investment calls are accurate.
After over three decades of virtually uninterrupted growth, it must drift toward a steady but slower pace.
Beijing has set the country’s economic growth target at 7.5% for 2012, a year of political transition. The move marks the first time for the target to be set below 8% in eight years. Yet, this should come as no surprise to the market. Wen Jiabao, the country’s premier, targeted 7.5% growth last year. The economy grew over 9%.
The downshift, partly a result of global economic problems, shows the government’s willingness to sacrifice some speed for better balance, coordination and sustainability. The self-directed slowdown will leave more room for China’s economic restructuring away from an export driven economy to one more keenly focused on the local consumer. China has a lot to build out not only in infrastructure, but in services as well. It simply has no social safety net. And its population is aging. It needs hospitals. It needs medical centers and new medical devices to treat disease.
Ample commodity supplies, an abundance of human resources, financial backing of its own government banks and a relatively innovative, tech savvy middle class will keep China’s economy afloat even as it faces a combination of headwinds from policy makers in China, as well as the systematic risks coming from Europe and the U.S. as those regions still dig out from the 2008 financial crisis.
China also has an emerging consumer culture that’s got retailers looking East. It’s not that Chinese are suddenly all making $44,000 a year like they are in the U.S., it’s just that there are a lot more of them and they can now afford cars, iPads and Prada handbags. Prada’s shares are listed in Hong Kong. Samsonite opted to list in Hong Kong last year instead of New York. China has an astronomical domestic market that can support employment and keep taxes flowing to the government.
“The data I look at is the Purchase Managers Index and some fixed asset investment numbers,” said Harriss. PMI has come down a bit, but is now rising since the lows of November when it was just 49. In February, China’s PMI index was 51. “I’d call that movement stable. I find the hard landing calls difficult to deal with. It seems they had gone quiet for a while, but now those calls are coming back. I find it all quite tired analysis at this point. If you just hover on the GDP numbers, look back at 2004 and you will see that the government missed a whole chunk of its economy. They structure their analysis more towards the productive economy than the tertiary sectors and those sectors are doing fine. China will slow, but I wouldn’t bet against China growth,” he said.
中国经济走势稳定不会“倾覆”
2012年03月23日 07:21参考消息
http://www.gold361.com/page/2012/0323/40653.shtml
当船只倾覆的时候，它的船底部分会翻转到水面上。当飞机撞击跑道时，氧气面罩会从头顶上过热的行李舱中自动落下，人们纷纷惊叫逃生，这是所谓的“硬着陆”。上述两种情形都不适合用来形容中国经济。然而，在从纽约到香港的许多地方，少数权威人士却坚称中国已“不治身亡”。
伦敦吉尼斯·阿特金森基金投资组合管理人埃德蒙·哈里斯说：“中国经济的稳定性远远超过了能获得投资者赞誉的地步。说中国的银行将会倒闭是完全不符合事实的。”
上周他在接受采访时说：“如果出现危机，即将到期的短期债务就会出现违约，而中国并不存在这个问题。中国不是希腊。中国的银行拥有充沛的资金，因此如果有必要，它们有能力对短期债务进行延期。”
中国的经济将会减速，但原因不是因为失去了增长动能。年复一年的两位数经济增长的日子一去不返。但是通货膨胀是受控的，中国通胀平均水平低于5%。新的城市仍然在拔地而起，居民收入在增长，城市化趋势在继续。这样的故事并没有改变。经济的繁荣仍然完好无损，只不过由原先大写的“繁荣”字样外加三个惊叹号变成了现在的小写而已。
总而言之，对于中长期投资而言，中国绝对仍是一个增长故事，甚至可以说是新兴市场中最稳定的增长故事。它还是继美国之后的世界第二大经济体。人们不应仅仅为了证明自己投资方向的正确而支持中国硬着陆的说法。
在经过了30多年几乎未受干扰的增长之后，中国经济必须采取一种稳扎稳打、尽管稍稍慢一些的步伐。北京已经为2012年确定了7.5%的经济增长目标。这是8年来该目标首次低于8%。
这种减速在一定程度上是全球经济问题所致，它表明中国政府愿意牺牲一些速度，来取得更为平衡、协调和可持续的发展。自觉放缓增速将给中国留下更大的余地，以便实现从出口导向型经济到更多地重视国内消费的转型。中国有很多可以扩建和增建的东西，不仅是在基础设施领域，服务业领域也如此。此外，其人口正在老化，需要医院、医疗中心及新的医疗设施来治疗疾病。
丰富的商品供应、充沛的人力资源、本国政府银行的金融支持以及思想相对开放、拥有技术头脑的中产阶级，将使中国经济能够顺利前行，尽管它面临着中国决策者的影响加上欧洲和美国的系统性风险的左右——欧美两地仍然没有完全走出2008年的金融危机。
中国还拥有一种正在兴起的消费文化，它让零售商把目光投向东方。
哈里斯说：“我愿意把这种走势称为稳定的走势。我发现，有关硬着陆的叫喊让人觉得不可理喻。这些叫喊似乎销声匿迹了一段时间，但现在又死灰复燃了。我觉得在目前这个时候，这些都已经是完全过时的分析了。如果你只是停留在国内生产总值的数字上，对2004年念念不忘，那么你会认为政府损失了很大一块的经济增长。唱衰者的分析更多的是针对生产性部门，而不是第三产业和那些运行状况良好的部门。中国将会慢下来，但我不会唱衰中国经济。” |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-3-23 09:34
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发表于 2012-3-23 09:51
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