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【中文标题】处理国际关系问题的新规范：困惑主义 【原文标题】A new paradigm for international relations: Confusionism 【登载媒体】外交政策 【原文链接】http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/29/a_new_paradigm_for_international_relations_confusionism 【译者】persie If you read this blog, you've probably heard about the various "isms" in the field of international relations. There's realism, of course, but also liberalism, idealism, and social constructivism. And don't forget Marxism, even though hardly anybody claims to believe it anymore. These "isms" are essentially families of theory that share certain common assumptions. For example, realists see power and fear as the main drivers of world affairs, while liberals place more weight on human acquisitiveness and the power of institutions. 当你打开这篇博客，你很可能已经听过国际关系领域中不同的“主义”了。这些“主义”中自然包括现实主义、自由主义、理想主义和社会建构主义。别忘了还有马克思主义，尽管如今几乎没有人信奉它了。这些“主义”是一种统一理论的固有子集，理论中的许多设想具有互通之处。譬如，现实主义者认为国际事务中主要驱动因素是权力以及恐惧，同时自由主义者认为人类的占有欲与制度体系的强制力举足轻重。 But there's another major force in world affairs, and sometimes I think it deserves an "ism" all its own. With tongue in cheek and apologies to a famous Chinese sage, I'll call it "Confusionism." For Confusians, ignorance and stupidity are the real key to understanding state behavior, not fear, greed, ideals, class interests, or any of those other things that people think drive world affairs. When Confusians seek to explain why states act as they do, they start by assuming that leaders do not understand the problems they face, have only a vague sense of where they want to go, and no idea at all about how to get there. Instead of starting with the rational actor assumption beloved by economists, realists, and most liberals, Confusians hone in on all the reasons why humans typically get things wrong. 然而在国际事务中仍存在另一关键因素，有时我认为它理应成为一种独立的“主义”。带着对中国著名的孔圣人的歉意，在这里我姑且称它为“困惑主义”（字形与困惑主义近似）。困惑主义者认为，无知与愚昧是理解国家行为的真正关键,而不是恐惧、贪婪、理想、阶级利益，也不是人们通常所认为的其他驱动因素。当困惑主义者寻求国家行为的原因，他们首先假设领导人们不理解国家所面临的问题，不清楚他们想要达到的目的，并完全不知该如何达到他们的目的。经济学家、现实主义者以及大多数自由主义者热衷于首先付诸合理假设的方法，与此相反的是，儒家主义者们思考人类所出现的典型错误的原因。 Confusionism is the opposite of the assorted conspiracy theories that you often read about. Some people believe that the world is run by a shadowy network of elites (e.g., the Trilateral Commission, Bilderberg, Council on Foreign Relations, etc.). Other people think everything is ultimately the product of some secret Zionist conspiracy, or the machinations of oil companies and the military-industrial complex. Islamophobes are convinced there is some sort of well-oiled Muslim plot to infiltrate Europe and America, impose Sharia law, and stick all our young women in harems. If you read enough Robert Ludlum, watch The Matrix too often, or spend enough time patrolling the nether regions of the blogosphere, you might find yourself thinking along similar lines. If that happens, get help. 困惑主义与大家经常读到的各种阴谋论恰恰相反。有些人认为世界是由精英人物组织的阴暗网络（例如三边委员会、彼尔德伯格集团、对外关系委员会等）所操纵的。另外一部分人认为一切事物在根本上都是阴谋的产物，包括秘密的犹太复国主义者阴谋和石油公司及军工业复合体阴谋。反伊斯兰教主义者认为某种精细完备的穆斯林阴谋渗透了欧洲及美国，利用伊斯兰教教法，将年轻女子困于闺房之中。如果你读过几部劳勃·勒德伦的惊悚小说，看过不少次《黑客帝国》，或者总是泡在博客圈中地狱般的领域里，那么你可能会发现自己的想法与上述有些许相同。如果真是如此，那么一定要寻求帮助。 These warped world-views all assume that there are some Very Clever People out there who are busy implementing some brilliant long-term scheme for their own selfish benefit. But if you've actually met a few real politicians, run a small business, or merely tried to get a dozen family members to a wedding on time, then you know this is not how the world really works. 这些扭曲的世界观都假设世上存在一些聪明绝顶的人，他们为了一己私利忙于实施精心规划的阴谋。但是如果你会见过几位真正的政治家，经营过小规模的生意，或者仅是试着让十几个家庭成员准时赶到婚礼现场，那么你会明白世界并不是以这样的方式运作的。 Which is where Confusionism comes in. It begins by recognizing the limits of human reason, as well as the inherent uncertainties and accidents that accompany all human endeavors. Because men and women are fallible and because our knowledge is imperfect, screw-ups are inevitable. Why do you think the first two letters in the acronym SNAFU stand for "situation normal?" Clausewitz taught us "in warfare everything is simple, but the simplest things are very difficult," but his insight was not limited to the battlefield. Leaders rarely have accurate information, they are usually guessing about the results of different choices, and even well-formulated plans often go wrong for no good reason. For Confusians, world leaders aren't Megaminds implementing fiendishly subtle stratagems; they are mostly well-meaning ignoramuses stumbling around in the dark. Just like the rest of us. 这便是困惑主义的根源所在。它来源于对人类理性的局限性，以及一切人类行为与生俱来的不确定性和事故发生可能性的认知。人类并非无懈可击，且我们的知识均有瑕疵，因而失误漏洞在所难免。缩略语SNAFU（美国军用俚语，含义为普通情况都被你搞糟）的出现表明即使是正常情况也会被人搞成一团糟。普鲁士军事理论家克劳斯威茨曾教导我们“战事之中诸事皆简单，但做好最简单之事亦很难”，这种观点亦可用于战争外的其他领域。领导人们很少能掌握精确信息，通常情况是，他们也在猜测不同选择所带来的相应结果，甚至周密细致的计划也会因不明原因而走向失败。困惑主义者们认为世界领导人们并非是思维缜密的老手在实施邪恶狡猾的阴谋；他们在很大程度上与我们一样，带着善心与无知在黑暗中跌跌撞撞着摸索。 Evidence that supports Confusionism is easy to find. What explains George W. Bush's decision to invade Iraq in 2003? Simple: he was deeply confused, and so were the people advising him. How are we to understand Mao Zedong's disastrous decision to launch the Great Leap Forward? Easy: his head was full of goofy ideas, he had no idea what he was doing, and he didn't realize how badly he'd blundered until millions had starved. The Russo-Georgian War of 2007? Clearly the product of rampant confusion on both sides. The Euro crisis? Isn't it obvious that the people who created the Euro were confused about the feasibility of a common currency that lacked the institutional framework to sustain it in hard times. 支撑困惑主义理论的依据比比皆是。乔治·沃克·布什为何在2003年时决定进攻伊拉克？答案很简单：他自身困惑不已，建议他这么做的人也处于混沌之中。那2008年俄格战争（注：原文错误，俄格战争发生在2008年，非2007年）呢？很明显是俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚双方冲动与困惑的结果。欧元区危机，显然是由创造欧元的人关于这种缺乏体系框架约束的通行货币是否能在困难时期继续沿用的困惑造成的。 Confusionism doesn't explain every case, of course. There are times when countries identify clear interests, devise effective strategies for achieving them, and implement those strategies more-or-less as intended. Realism is right to emphasize the importance of insecurity and fear, liberalism is sometimes correct in pointing to institutional arrangements that can facilitate cooperation, and social constructivists have a point when they argue that norms and identities also affect state behavior. But we shouldn't forget the important role of human folly, which is where Confusionism shines. 困惑主义当然并非适用于一切事例。不同的国家还是会明确自身鲜明的利益，制定多种有效的策略以获取利益，并或多或少的按照计划来实施策略。这样看来，现实主义者强调危险与恐惧的重要性也不无道理，自由主义者指出体制安排能够深化合作也有理可循，社会建构主义者称规范与身份同样影响国家行为也是有理有据的。但人类的愚昧无知显然不容忽视，这一点正是困惑主义的精髓所在。 When will Confusians see things more clearly than others? Watch out for the following deadly warning signs: 相较于其他的“主义”，困惑主义在洞悉下列情况时更为透彻： 1.New circumstances. When leaders are facing a completely new set of problems, it will take them awhile to figure out what it all means. Until then, confusion will reign. It took a decade or more before Americans and Soviets understood the full implications of the nuclear revolution, and even then a lot of idiotic things were published and uttered on that topic for decades afterward. And because both sides were deeply confused about how deterrence worked, they spent trillions building well over 60,000 thermonuclear weapons, more than enough to destroy each other many times over. 1.崭新的情况。当摆在领导人的眼前是一系列新的难题时，他们要花费一些时间来思考这些难题意味着什么。在彻底想通之前，他们的思维中一片混乱。美国人和苏联人花上了十年甚至更长的时间才真正理解核革命带来了什么，甚至在这之后的几十年间人们还在不断发表关于这一主题的许多白痴论点。正因为美苏双方都不了解核威慑是怎样产生的，他们才耗资数万亿制造60000多热核武器，这些核武器的能量足以多次摧毁对方。 2. Unfamiliar environments. It is hardly surprising that the United States has been stumbling its way over the past couple of decades, as we've wrestled with the politics of places that are vastly different from us. We were confused when we sallied forth to Afghanistan, Iraq, and a handful of other places, and no country as ignorant of world history and as linguistically-challenged as America is likely to sort these places out. It's the downside of American exceptionalism: if we're as unique as we like to think we are, then the rest of the world is very different and is bound to confuse us. A lot. 2.陌生的环境。在政治方面我们也与差异颇大的国家进行了不少博弈，那么美国在过去的几十年中走得跌跌撞撞也不足为奇。在我们向阿富汗、伊拉克乃至一些其他地方出兵的时候，我们的头脑中也充满了困惑。并且没有一个国家能够将这些地区分门别类，即使它与美国一样对世界历史一无所知并且语言经受着考验。这美国例外论的负面观点便是：如果我们如我们所愿景的那样独一无二，那么世界将天翻地覆，并注定让我们困惑不已。 3.Overflowing in-boxes. Policymakers are bound to be confused when they are constantly rushing to put out today's new bonfire and don't have time to think about what they are doing or saying. (This is what got Susan Rice into hot water, right?) Confusionism helps you understand why ambitious great powers get into trouble: they are always trying to do too many things in too many places, and that inevitably leaves them operating with a flawed understanding of most of the problems with which they are contending. Getting involved everywhere also makes you a prisoner of the locals on whom you have to rely for advice, and they'll work 24/7 to convince you to do what they want. Needless to say, this is a good way to maximize one's state of confusion. 3.过广的涉足。决策者们每天忙着处理新的棘手问题，没时间考虑他们所做的事和所说的话，因而他们必然也充满了混乱与疑惑（而这不正是让美国现任常驻联合国代表苏珊·赖斯处于水深火热之中的原因吗）。困惑主义明确的解释了为何壮志勃勃的大国会陷入麻烦：他们总是在太多的地方做了太多的事情，这就导致他们理解其所面临的问题时出现错误。涉足过多领域也会让你无暇顾及本地情况，而你又依赖着本地权威为你提供的意见来行事，他们也极力想使你依照他们的想法来做事。毋庸置疑，这在最大程度上加剧了决策者的思维混乱。 4.Taboo topics. Nations are more likely to sort out problems when information is readily available and alternative views can be debated freely. It follows they will get confused when secrecy abounds, or when topics become taboo and hard to discuss openly. Small wonder, therefore, that totalitarian societies commit some of the biggest blunders (collectivized agriculture, anyone?), or that governments in open societies get confused whenever they start shielding their actions from public scrutiny and accountability (see under: Gitmo, drone warfare, covert action, etc.). 4.禁忌的话题。当信息充足详实且可以自由讨论不同的观点时，国家才更可能将问题分析透彻。而当满是无可奉告的秘密时，或是有过于禁忌不方便公开讨论的话题时，人们便会陷入困惑之中。那么，有一些新奇的是，极权主义社会为何会酿成大祸（比如集体化农业），而现代社会中的政府又为何一旦试图遮掩行为以避开公众的审视和评论便陷入困顿（详见关塔那摩监狱、雄蜂战争及秘密行动等）。 5. Ideological blinders. Rigid and all-encompassing world-views are a fertile source of confusion. A simple set of dogmas can provide great psychological comfort to believers, but they invariably clash with reality and thus provide a poor foundation for policymaking (or for running a national election, as today's GOP seems determined to prove). Whenever you hear anyone offering up universal and unquestioned truths about politics or society, your Confusion-detector should start pinging and you should hope that they never get close to power. 5.思想的蒙蔽。僵硬死板和过度包容的世界观都会催生困惑与混乱。一系列的教条会为信奉者们带来心理安慰，但教条总会与现实发生冲突，这样的冲突会使政策制定的基础（或国家选举的过程，现在的大老党正是一例）变得贫乏。每当你听到一人向你提供政治或社会方面普遍而不具争议的真理时，你脑中的混乱探测仪便要开始工作了，而且你定不愿看到他们掌权。 6.Success. Paradoxically, states can be more vulnerable to confusion after victory, because it often fosters over-confidence. "Victory disease" is a familiar wartime phenomenon, as a string of successes increases the appetite and encourages leaders to believe they can do no wrong. And once leaders stop thinking with their heads and start operating with their hearts and hopes alone, they are bound to stumble. 6.成功的道路。自相矛盾的是，国家在成功之后更易遭遇攻击，而非陷入混乱，因为胜利会催生自负心理。“胜利病”是一种战时常见现象，它作为成功的附带品使国家的胃口变得越大越大，鼓动了领导人的一种错误的想法，即认为他们所做所为都是对的。而一旦领导人们不用头脑思考，不按正常的心智和期望行事，那么他们的前路必定充满荆棘。 More seriously, I don't really think Confusionism will become a school of thought in IR, and there is already a pretty extensive literature on the closely related phenomenon of misperception. But the label reminds us when we are puzzled by what national leaders do, an obvious explanation is that they are just as confused as we are. And sometimes more so. 严肃地讲，我不认为国际关系领域的一种思想流派，并且已有不少关于这方面的现象与错觉的文献著作出现。然而“儒家主义”这一标签在我们对国家领导人的行为困惑不解时会提醒我们：这一现象可以很容易的解释为，领导人同我们一样感到困惑，甚至我们中间的有些人比起他们更像是明眼人。
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发表于 2012-12-15 10:15
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