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中国2012年经济增速7.8%，高于预期 http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/17/business/china-gdp-2012 (CNN) -- China's economic growth rose in the fourth quarter of 2012, helping the world's most populous nation end the year with a growth rate of 7.8%, according to figures released Friday from the National Bureau of Statistics. Last quarter, China's economy grew at a pace of 7.9%, slightly better than analyst expectations and breaking a pattern of seven straight quarters of decline. China's growth rate had been steadily falling since the fourth quarter of 2010, when economic output grew 9.8%. The slowing growth rate bottomed out in the third quarter of 2012, when China's economy only grew at 7.4%. Last March, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao lowered the country's 2012 growth target from 8% to 7.5%. While such growth would be the envy of most nations, China's economy has grown at an average rate of about 10% each year for the past 30 years. This has helped propel China to become the world's second largest economy, just behind that of the United States. China's leaders are widely expected to maintain its 7.5% growth target into 2013. Adding to Friday's better-than-expected growth figures, China's industrial production increased to 10.3% year-on-year versus expectations of 10.2% growth. Retail sales rose 15.2% year-on-year, also a 0.1% point increase over expectations. （CNN）根据国家统计局上周五发布的数据，中国经济增速在2012年第四季度反弹，使得这个全球人口最多的国家得以获得7.8%的年增速。
在去年最后一个季度，中国经济增速达到了7.9%，略好于之前的预期，结束了一段时间内经济季度增速持续下滑。
中国从2010年四季度开始到2012年三季度，经济增速逐步由9.8%下滑到7.4%并触底。
去年三月，中国国务院总理温家宝将GDP增长目标从8%下调至7.5%。虽然这个增速让世界大多数的国家羡慕，但是中国已经持续了30年的平均增速速10%的经济增长，并且帮助中国大陆成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。
中国的领导人普遍预期中国将在2013年继续保持7.5%的经济增速。
另外上周五还公布了其它的好于预期的统计数字，如中国工业产出增长10.3%好于预计的10.2%，社会零售平总额增长15.2%，高于之前预期0.1个百分点。 ----------------------------------------------------------分割线以下是网友评论-------------------------------------------------
phirewolf • 25 days ago Where are those American anti-Chinese protaganists now? China +7.8%, more and more Americans are jumping Obama's sinking ship and are now living in China. Proud to be an American while living in China! LOL 那些反对中国的宣传现在到哪里去了？中国的增速达到了7.8%，越来越多的美国人选择抛弃奥巴马的沉船而选择生活在中国。 很骄傲能作为一个生活在中国的美国人！LOL（美国的带路党lol）
Peter Gajewski phirewolf • 25 days ago
No-one with a brain would think, that China won't grow any more, as long as global circumstances and demand for cheap plastic toys are still providing good conditions.
My concern (yes: concern!) is, that China might get in trouble in few years, because they possibly will fail to transfer their society and/or their economy to standards of rest of the world.
Building plastic toys forever can't be solution for a country like China. At moment, many companies are invested in China and hope for a better future, but in reality are loosing money. 50% of economy is psychology and they are all very euphoric. One day, China will have to deliver what they promise, or companies will be leaving.
没有一个有大脑的人会认为中国不会再增长，只要全球市场仍然需要廉价的塑料玩具。 我的重点是，中国可能在未来数年内遇到麻烦，因为他们可能会在社会和经济转型上失败。靠制造这些塑料玩具不能作为中国的长期解决办法。现在，很多公司投资中国希望有个更好的未来，但是他们亏了钱，50%的经济投资都是心理上的，那些投资者都很乐观。有一天，中国可能会撤回对这些公司的承诺，或者这些公司会离开。（终于美国ZF的五美分党啊）
jonathanhuang Peter Gajewski • 24 days ago
You better do a research before you comment this. Or people will say you are just an ignorant. Just look around, Iphone Ipad, Flat TV, computers, car parts, what is not made in China? Plastic toys are only in your mind bud. Tell you the truth, you really dont need to worry about China, go worry some other countries, such as....yours, LOL
你最好在评论前先做调查，否则人们会说你是真眼瞎。只要看看你的周围的iphone,ipad, 平板电视，电脑等，哪一样不是中国制造的？（光生产）塑料玩具只是你的想象。告诉你吧，你真的不需要担心中国，去担心其他国家吧就像你的祖国。（看来正如“老婆都是别人的漂亮”一样，大家都总是看到他国的优点，自己国家短处）
Mamin Tjia hf • 20 days ago
@Peter Gajewski: How come China owns billions of US Treasury Bills if the Chinese can only assemble products? I bet you have not been in China. You should go to Shanghai or Beijing. You'd be surprise how advance the Chinese are.
中国难道只可以靠组装产品来获取数万亿美元的美国国债？我打赌你肯定没有去过中国，你应该去去北京和上海，你会为中国的现代化感到惊讶
ikander Peter Gajewski • 25 days ago Erm, not to burst your bubble or anything, but even back to 2005, consumer goods only account for 1/3 of the Chinese export and get smaller each year. These percentage is taken up by capital goods. which has been growing rapidly since 2000. I don't have the pie chart for the recent years available, but "plastic toy" or other cheap consumer product is really no longer China's focus.
嗯。。不是刺破你的泡泡或其他什么，就算回到2005年，消费品出口之战中国总出口的1/3不到，而且还在逐年缩小。这些（新增长的）百分比是由生产资料组成。我没有具体的逐年数据，但是“塑料玩具”或者其他廉价消费品已经不再是中国所关注的了。
Mahone ikander • 24 days ago yes,it is. 对的，就是这样！（好像宠物小精灵里的“喵喵，就是这样”。囧）
Nick ikander • a month ago Yeah, but that was the reason for their huge growth originally. Without the industrial backbone that the outsourcing production supplies, China's economy is going to tank. Unless they figure out a way to keep their unnatural rate of growth going for the next 20 years, they're going to have their hands full dealing with the many social and political issues. their army is going to end up to be the only thing holding their country together. 的确，但是那（生产廉价商品）是中国经济增长迅速的最根本原因。没有支柱产业，外包生产的供应，中国的经济将会崩盘。除非他们能找到一条路能在未来20年维持不正常的经济增长率。他们将用尽全力解决社会和政治的问题，他们的军队也会结束现在这种只守卫国家的状态（意思就是军队将对外）。
jonathanhuang Nick • 24 days ago you will see, if they can move their industries back to US or Europe. Or if they gonna move their industries to India. I am telling you, China is like a black hole, you get in and you just cant get out. China had the most complete industry system. you cant just move one part out of it. That is why, even India labor is three times cheaper than China's, but they still cant take away the business.
你会看见，如果他们（商人）能将工业从中国搬到美国，欧洲，或者印度（的后果），我告诉你吧兄弟，中国像个黑洞，你只能进入不能撤出。中国有最完备的工业体系，你不能只考虑一个方面。这就是为什么印度的劳工价格只有中国的三分之一，但是仍然不能替代中国。（每当说道中国的时候印度经常躺枪，囧） NoFoolJule Peter Gajewski • a month ago Only if they start outsourcing their jobs to Africa. 除非当他们开始将他们的工作外包到非洲。 Levendful phirewolf • a month ago 7.8% of a small number isn't so great, e.g 10% of $100 = 10, 5% of 1000 = $50. China is catching up
7.8%对于一个小数字来说并不大，比如10%对于100美元只有10元，5%对于1000美元却有50元，中国仍在追赶。
kersh Levendful • a month ago I don't think GDP of the second largest country is a small number .
我不认为世界GDP第二高是一个小数字。
Lhy ForcaBarca kersh • 24 days ago − It seems that you don't take the enormous population base number of China into consideration.
看来你好像没有考虑到中国有巨量的人口。
Kal kersh • 24 days ago
It is slowing down, used to be closer to 10% a year. The richer they get the harder it will be to grow. Same thing happened to Japan and Korea. 中国经济正在减速，曾经增速是10%一年，越富裕（的国家）增长也越难，就像同样的事情发生在日本和韩国一样。
swift69 kersh • a month ago
kersh: look up the term "fallacy of composition." Kersh,去看看什么叫“合成谬误”吧。（合成谬误Fallacy of Composition是萨缪尔森提出来的。意即，它是一种谬误，对局部说来是对的东西，仅仅由于它对局部而言是对的，便说它对总体而言也必然是对的。在经济学领域中，十分肯定的是：微观上而言是对的东西，在宏观上并不总是对的）
Levendful Levendful • a month ago
GDP per capita is what affects the citizen. It determines standard of living.
人均GDP才能惠及普通公民，它决定了生活的质量。
Fastvue Levendful • a month ago
In this day & age, Only Debts per capita counts, US may have a gdp per capita of $48,328 but external debt per capita of $52.710 as of 2011, 105%of GDP ! Dead beat nation statue is not too far off ! 在这个时代，只有人均负债才是考虑重点吧！美国可能拥有48328刀的人均GDP，但是人均负外债52710刀（2011年数据），相当于人均GDP的105%。(美国版的公知~囧)
Kal Fastvue • 24 days ago
That is an important observation. Our debt levels now are almost as high as they were after World War 2... it's insane... it's like we owe for another world war without having fought it.
这确实是很重要一点，我们的债务水平现在几乎是二战刚结束的水平，这简是直疯了，这相当于我们又打了一次二战，但实际上我们没有打仗。
Levendful Kal • 22 days ago
Current 2 wars don't count? 伙计，你没算上最近的两场战争吧！（伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争）
JCF • a month ago I am Chinese, but I am not proud of this figure. Because the country become more and more rich, but the people still poor. The rich and the officer send their children to US and other country, then carry over the property. 我是一个中国人，但是我并不为这个数据感到自豪。因为虽然国家越来越富裕，但是我们屌丝仍然很贫穷。富人和官员都将他们的高富帅白富美子女送出国,然后将财产转移出国。（中国公知VS美国公知）
ikander JCF • a month ago
Do you actually live in China? Or did you just read it off the internet? Because anyone with a memory spin longer than ten years will tell you that living standard in China has been improved drastically over the past ten years and for those of us with memory of the living standard in the 90s or even the 80s, the change is even more pronounced.
See comparison, in the 80s, when buying any sort of item, you need money and corresponding stamps. Television is a huge luxury item and takes an average family two to three years to save up for it.
In the 90s, the situation is much more improved, but things you take for grants in US, such as personal computer and cars are still luxury items that takes years to save up and purchase.
And living standard in China continued to rise in the past ten years, post 2008, for the first time in the past century, the Chinese tourists are outspending American and Europeans in their purchase and the difference between the living standard in the western world and China is drawing closer.
I am sorry if China is not consuming 50% of world's resource with 5% of the world's population, but to say people's living standard remained the same or it has not been improved drastically is a flat out lie.
你真的生活在中国么？或者只是从网络上看点评论？任何一个有十年以上记忆的中国人都会告诉你在过去十年中国的生活水平发生的巨大变化，像我们这些对80年代，90年代生活水平有印象的人，对变化的感觉更是显著。 看看对比，在80年代，买任何东西你不仅需要钱还需要相应的供应票。电视是一件非常奢侈的东西，需要普通家庭存三年的钱。 到90年代，社会有了更多的进步，但是像一些在美国使用的东西，诸如个人电脑或者汽车仍然是奢侈的东西，需要存几年钱才能买。 21世纪前十年，中国的生活水平进一步提高，2008年，中国游客花销第一次超过美国和欧洲，中国和欧美的生活水平差异也越来越小。 不要意思，我没有说中国以5%的人口消耗全球50%的资源（调侃美国），但是说中国的生活水平完全没有变化完全是扯谈。
DanRyanExpressMan JCF • a month ago
"Because the country become more and more rich, but the people still poor. The rich and the officer send their children to Harvard and other Ivy League School, then carry over the property." The country is not China. Which country? “因为虽然国家越来越富裕，但是人民仍然很贫穷。富人和官员都将他们的子女送到哈佛和其他常春藤名校,然后将财产转移出国。” 这说的并不是中国，是哪个国家呢？
ikander DanRyanExpressMan • a month ago
At the first look, I am guessing India.
我第一眼看，以为说的印度（国富民穷论世界都有啊，囧）
jonathanhuang ikander • 25 days ago
I guess USA.
我猜的是美国。（美国的民主斗士，不对！应该是共产斗士）
Sean Li DanRyanExpressMan • 25 days ago
most of the countries, as in all of the countries except where personally property is illegal?
每个国家都这样的，除非那些拥有个人财产是非法的国家。（这个哥们儿说了实话）
NoFoolJule JCF • a month ago That's not true, pro rata more people go hungry in America. 这不是正确的，如果按照比例，美国挨饿的人更多。（万恶的美国五毛）
Sreejith Menon JCF • a month ago Dont worry bud, We Indians are expecting 300000 people reverse migrating from US. And I am seeing many Americans are employed in Bangalore or Hyderabad. I recently rejected a job from an American IT company from San Jose with a salary $100k/annum.
别担心伙计，我们印度大概有300000人从美国移民来，我看见很多美国人在班达罗尔和海德拉巴（印度弄计算机软件厉害的城市）工作。我最近刚刚决绝掉了一个来自美国圣何塞的IT公司，他们开出的薪水是100000刀一年。（印度的软件工程师确实很强）
Peter Gajewski JCF • a month ago This development can only be reverted by education and more jobs that require qualification. You need to produce more high quality stuff. Cheap things can be produced anywhere, price of labour is the key and price of labour for the masses will stay low. Your country developed too fast, false expectations and hopes lead to tensions in Chinese society. Your politicians can't do much about that, it will need more time. But people blame them and demand to use their influence to make things better in short time. In western world, we would wipe them out of office in elections (nothing would change, but it feels good to punish somebody). What will Chinese people do?
这种进步只能靠教育的改善，让更多的工作富有技术含量。你需要创造更多的有技术含量的商品。 廉价产品任何地方都能生产，（如果）廉价的劳动力是竞争优势，（那么）大多数的屌丝都还是贫穷。你的国家（中国）发展的太快了，（民众）过高的期望和愿望正在使得中国社会变得紧张。 你们的政治家不能为此多做什么，这需要时间。但是人们却怪罪他们，并且要求他们利用影响力在短时间内把事情做的非常好。 在西方世界，我们会在选举中让他们下台，但是什么东西都改变不了，只能满足了人们的惩罚欲望，你们中国人会怎么做？ （这位兄弟说到点子了，决定生活水平关键还是生产力，有些国内网民光看到美国人的收入是自己的6倍，却看不到别人做的事情相当于自己的6倍，生产力是自己的6倍。） EA Marco Polo • a month ago
[World is approaching to a 500 years turning point] In my spectacular research: in 2019, the US Federal debt will exceed US$ 20 trillion, Mainland China will become largest importer and GDP in PPP, and East Asia will replace Europe as new world center for next 500 years. Thus from 2019, the gap of economic growth rate between the US and Mainland China will begin to expand gradually. In reality now Singapore and Macau both have higher per capita income than the US. Mainland Chin still needs 8 years to upgrade quality comprehensively, and to improve living standard of rural areas. In 2025 China (Mainland + ROC Taiwan + Hong Kong + Macau) will have a higher per capita income than Russia and Brazil, and will become largest economy on the earth. It will be a landmark in world history, and it should be a beginning not terminal for a big change. 【世界到了一个500年一度的转折点】 一个引人入胜的调查说，到2019年，美国的债务将超过20万亿美元，中国将成为GDP和PPP第一大国，东亚会替代欧洲成为未来500年的世界中心。因此从2019年开始，中国和美国的经济增长率会逐渐扩大。 事实上，现在新加坡和澳门有比美国更高的人均GDP。中国大陆仍然需要8年事件全面升级产业，更多的改善乡村生活水平。到2025年，中国（中国大陆+台湾+香港+澳门）的人均收入将超过俄罗斯和巴西，变成世界第一大经济体。这会是人类史上一个重要的里程碑，这是一个巨大变化的开始而不是结束。
DanRyanExpressMan EA Marco Polo • a month ago
My history book in high school (California State Text Book) tells that in 1700, China was the biggest GDP in the world. Not in 2025, nor first time in 500 years as you claimed. I think the high school text book is more informative than your spectacular 我的高中历史书（加州版教材）说在1700年，中国就是世界GDP第一高，如果只到2025年，并没有像你一开始说的500年轮回，我相信高中教材的准确信比你的引人入胜的调查高。
bluestar DanRyanExpressMan • a month ago
in Tang Dynasty, China had 40% of the global GDP. in 1820, China has 25-30% of the global GDP in 1960, China has only 3% of the global GDP thank to Chairman Mao in 2012, China's share is 15% PPP, and IMF est.
唐朝，中国占有全球GDP的40%，1820年，中国占有25%到30%，1960年中国只占有3%。感谢毛主席啊！
jonathanhuang bluestar • 25 days ago
in 1960, thanks to the COLD WAR and the ruin from Japan's ruthless destroy during WWII.
GDP is not everything, industrial productivity is the key.
Now China is already the biggest in every industry production.
这是1960年，还不是拜冷战和日本在二战被摧毁所赐。GDP并不是所有，工业生产力才是最重要的，现在中国几乎在所有领域有最大的生产力。
ikander bluestar • a month ago
Right, because repeated western invasions since 1850, world wars and the Japanese invasion that killed more than 20 million people has nothing to do with why the country was bad shape. It must Mao that screwed up with China, despite the fact there is more public infrastructure and industrial growth from 1949 to 1960 than the century before it combined.
对的，因为（中国）那时在复制西方世界1850年来的侵略，世界大战和日本侵略，多达2000万的人死亡。人们没有事情可以，为什么国家向坏的方向发展？因为毛把中国搞砸了，尽管1949年到1960年搞出了很多公共建设和工业增长，并且比统一前多。
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发表于 2013-2-14 17:21
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