本帖最后由 满仓 于 2014-10-9 22:45 编辑
【中文标题】金正恩，我们想念你
【原文标题】Why We Should Hope Kim Jong Un Returns From His Mysterious Absence
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文作者】ISAAC STONE FISH
【原文链接】http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/10/08/Kim_Jong_Un_disappears_returns
今天，距离金正恩最后一次公开露面已经36天了。他的消失对朝鲜是件好事吗？对世界是否会造成威胁？我们是不是应该期盼他的回归？
大部分朝鲜问题专家似乎都认为他很快就会出现，或者至少传递出一切仍在他掌握之中的信号。10月10日是这个国家的建党纪念日，据说他很有可能会在那时现身。与此相比，很多西方媒体——或者至少那些报道的标题——都在揣测，金罹患疾病，还可能是被一场暴动赶下台。比如《卫报》的一个标题是“金正恩：朝鲜王朝覆灭了吗？”
暂且不提金到底去哪儿了这个无人能回答的问题，平壤的国有媒体说他患病，当然他也可能是被软禁、已经死亡、在度假，或者仅仅是厌烦了聚光灯下的生活，但可以印证的一个问题是，金掌控下的朝鲜的确更加稳定。（首先要澄清一点，所有有关朝鲜的报道都有一个永恒的标准：这个国家不透明的程度比眼睛上长白内障更加严重，所以我下面写的大都是猜测。）
有关朝鲜最危险的一件事情是它的不可预知性。因为我们对平壤想要什么、为什么做这样的事知之甚少。朝鲜最近采取了一些行动来提升它向美国发射导弹的能力，包括升级火箭发射基地；提高裂变物质的生产能力；测试可抵达美国本土的导弹引擎。美国政府和其它国家政府中的军事专家和决策者们，需要有能力预测金直接进攻他们国家的可能性。
在平壤烟雾弥漫的权力走廊上，在2011年12月父亲金正日死后掌权的金正恩，是一个已知相对值。
外部世界要比身在朝鲜的朝鲜人更加了解金，他的背景、健康状况和他的癖性。尽管据我们所知，美国官员并没有与金的直接接触，但是中国人有。或许这些信息在华盛顿与北京的会面时，点滴传递给对方。（一些机密文件或许有关于平壤和金思想的详细信息。）
与金正恩形成鲜明对比的是七十多岁的老者、副元帅黄炳誓，他最近在军队内得到晋升，被视为是朝鲜政府的二把手。我所能找到的有关黄最详尽、可信的描述来自迈克尔•梅登，他有一个博客，专门讲述朝鲜领导人的事情。“黄最广为人知的事情是与金正恩的母亲高英姬有紧密的政治联系。他已经结婚，子女都已成年，在党中央和外贸部工作。黄为人谦和、平易近人，属于‘保护者’或‘辅导型人格’。”大致就是这个样子。
是的，我们很难猜测金的个性在多大程度上会倾向于改革派、务实派、强硬派，或者政治狂人。但是黄，以及其它所有等待上位的人，更是一个不可捉摸的变量，猜测他们更是难上加难。如果像黄这样的人统治朝鲜，外部世界将更难预测和理解朝鲜的决策过程，这样的不确定因素让这个国家变得更加危险。
而且，如果金已经，或即将死亡，或被罢黜，那么他的继任者将面临严重的合法性问题。金日成对朝鲜的统治从1948年开始，到1994年去世为止，他受到朝鲜人民的充分爱戴，对他的个人崇拜奠定了这个国家得以延续的坚实基础。这种爱戴延续到他的儿子金正日身上，转而又传递给金正恩。以金氏家族的神圣地位来看，他们是让这个国家在纷繁、危险的世界中得以生存的保护神。如果金正恩被罢黜——也不是去扮演垂帘听政的角色——那么新的领导人需要在朝鲜人民眼中树立自己的威信，而大部分朝鲜人的一生都在金氏家族的统治下度过。
朝鲜的新领导人很有可能对内大肆镇压，对外耀武扬威，至少在一开始的时候要用这样的方式来巩固权力。接下来是更多的导弹发射、更多的核试验和大清洗。
即使某个金氏家族成员掌权——《环球邮报》猜测金正恩的妹妹金汝静就在这段期间代行最高领导人职务——他或她也缺少像金正恩那样的合法地位。毕竟他是多年来朝鲜政治宣传的对象。
如果金已经倒台，朝鲜会陷入混乱吗？我曾经听说有人把朝鲜比做一个没有人骑的自行车：一个摇摇晃晃的国家有一天——或许是几个月，也或许是几十年——必将跌倒。
从长远角度来看，金的倒台或许是件好事。因为这有可能促成朝鲜半岛的统一，让朝鲜得到更好的治理、更高的生活水平、基本的人权，并且接触到外部世界。但是短期来看，这或许会引发内战、再一次的饥荒，以及朝鲜把核武器卖给流氓国家或者恐怖组织。
另一个对朝鲜形象的比喻是，一个强盗冲向一个路人（比如中国或者美国），用一把枪指着自己的脑袋，说：“把钱给我，否则我就开枪！”路人所感受到的威胁既包括不想为强盗的死承担责任，也包括不希望强盗的脑浆溅到自己的衣服上。朝鲜内乱所带来的负担主要会施加在朝鲜人民身上，但是这个国家的崩溃会破坏中国东北地区的稳定，因为会有成千上万的朝鲜难民进入中国。同时朝鲜的流氓分子会把核武器卖给美国的敌人。
那么我们应当担忧吗？的确有迹象显示奇怪的事情正在上演。三名朝鲜高官在10月4日访问韩国，似乎是要提前24小时发布通知，这是多年来双方最高阶层的对话。平壤的国际舆论喉舌朝鲜中央新闻社的英文网站上依然歌舞升平，除了10月6日的一篇文章，标题是“朝鲜民主主义人民共和国总理在韩国黄海北道考察农业”。做这类调查的通常是金本人，而且让人觉得好奇的是，除了金正恩之外，竟然还有人对具体事务感兴趣。
坦率地说，我不认为金完蛋了。他的销声匿迹的确不正常，但朝鲜的行为向来没有正常过。10月10日的时候，或许我们还会看到金向人民群众挥手致意的照片，他的头发梳向脑后，姿势依然自信，体型依然健硕。
如果非说会有令人吃惊的事情会出现的话，他那标志性的傻笑或许带有某种解脱的意味。
原文：
It's now been 36 days since Kim Jong Un was last seen in public. Is his absence good for North Korea and the threat it poses to the rest of the world? Or should we hope that he returns?
Most North Korea experts seem to believe that he soon will indeed end his absence -- or that he will at least give a signal of his continued grip on power. Oct. 10, which marks the country's Party Founding Day, has been cited as a possible time for his return. By contrast, many Western news sources -- or at least their headlines -- are speculating that Kim has met with a serious illness, or been ousted in a coup. Headlines like the Guardian's "Kim Jong Un: Has the North Korean Dynasty Fallen?" abound.
Setting aside for now the impossible question of where Kim has gone -- Pyongyang's state-run media say he is sick, though he could also be under house arrest, dead, on vacation, or simply bored of appearing in public -- North Korea is arguably much more stable with Kim at the helm. (First, the eternal caveat when writing about North Korea: The country is more opaque than an eye afflicted with cataracts, so much of what I'm writing is speculation.)
The most dangerous thing about North Korea is its unpredictability. Because we know so little about what Pyongyang wants, or why it does what it does, it's difficult to prepare for contingencies. North Korea has recently taken several steps to improve its ability to fire missiles at the United States: It has upgraded its main rocket-launch site, increased production of fissile material, and tested engines for a missile that could reach U.S. territory. Military planners and decision-makers in the U.S. government -- and in other countries -- need to be able to predict the likelihood that Kim will launch an attack on their country.
In Pyongyang's fog-filled corridors of power, Kim, who took power in December 2011 following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, is a relatively known quantity.
The outside world knows more about Kim -- his background, his health, and his proclivities -- than any other North Korean in North Korea. And while no American official is known to have met with Kim, many high-ranking Chinese have. Some of this received wisdom presumably filters into Washington during high-level meetings with Beijing. (Classified material presumably offers a richer look at the internal workings of both Pyongyang and Kim's own mind.)
By contrast, consider the septuagenarian Vice Marshal Hwang Pyong-so, a recently promoted military official who some see as North Korea's second most powerful man, and whose name often pops up in conversations about potential coups in North Korea. The most detailed and credible description of Hwang that I was able to find in English comes from Michael Madden, who mans the North Korea Leadership Watch blog: "Hwang is reputed to have had close political ties to Kim Jong Un's mother, Ko Yong Hui. He is married and has adult children who work in the central party and foreign trade. Hwang is mild-mannered and affable and has a 'protector' or INFJ personality." And that's basically it.
Yes, it's very difficult to guess how much of Kim's personality veers towards the closet reformer, the pragmatic, the hard-liner, or the madman. But Hwang, and anyone else who may be a leader-in-waiting, are even lesser-known quantities -- making guessing that much harder. Because the world would likely have more difficulty predicting or understanding decision-making if someone like Hwang ruled North Korea, that added uncertainty would make the country that much more dangerous.
Moreover, if Kim is or will soon be dead or deposed, his successor would have far less legitimacy. Kim Il Sung, who ruled from 1948 until his death in 1994, is a universally beloved figure in North Korea whose personality cult underpins the state's existence. Some of that popularity was passed to his son, Kim Jong Il, who in turn legitimized his son, Kim Jong Un. According to the mythology of the Kim clan, the family exists to protect the country's existence in a fraught, dangerous world. If Kim Jong Un has or will be deposed -- and won't function as a figurehead -- the new leaders will need to establish credibility in the eyes of North Koreans, most of whom have spent their entire lives ruled by a member of the Kim bloodline.
It's likely that North Korea's new leaders would crack down domestically and lash out internationally, at least initially, as they consolidated power. More missile launches, nuclear tests, and mass purges could ensue.
Even if a Kim family member took control -- the Global Post speculates that Kim Jong Un's little sister Kim Yo Jong may be running the country in Kim's absence -- he or she would still lack the legitimacy of Kim Jong Un, who has been the subject of a multiyear propaganda campaign throughout North Korea.
If Kim has fallen, would North Korea descend into chaos? I've heard North Korea compared to a bicycle from which the rider had already dismounted: a wobbly country that will one day -- maybe in a few months, maybe in decades -- topple.
In the long term, Kim's fall would probably be a good thing. It would likely lead to reunification with South Korea, giving North Koreans good governance, higher living standards, access to the outside world, and basic human rights. But in the short term it could lead to civil war, another famine, and possibly the sale of North Korea's nuclear weapons to rogue states or a terrorist group.
Another popular metaphor for North Korea: A robber walks up to a pedestrian (say, China or the United States), points a gun at his own head, and screams, "Give me your money or I'll shoot." The threat is both that the pedestrian doesn't want to be responsible for the death of the robber, nor does he want the robber's brains splattered across his clothes. Much of the burden of an imploding North Korea would fall on the backs of North Koreans, but the country's collapse could also destabilize northeast China by sending hundreds of thousands of refugees across North Korea's northern border -- and allow rogue elements in North Korea to sell nuclear material to enemies of the United States.
So how worried should we be? There are certainly signs that something strange is afoot. Three top North Korean officials -- on what appeared to be just 24 hours' notice -- visited South Korea on Oct. 4, the highest-level contact between the two sides in years. Nothing seems amiss in the English-language news website of the Korean Central News Agency, an international mouthpiece for Pyongyang -- besides the Oct. 6 article "DPRK Premier Learns about Farming in South Hwanghae Province." It's usually Kim carrying out these investigations -- and it's a curious sign when someone other than Kim Jong Un is looking at things.
For the record, I don't think this is the end of Kim. His disappearance is unusual, but then again, very little of North Korea's behavior appears usual. On Oct. 10, we will likely see photos of Kim waving to a massive crowd, his hair swept back, his posture confident, his weight intact.
And, surprising as it may sound, the sight of his trademark goofy grin should be a relief.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2014-10-9 22:45
提升卡
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千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2014-10-10 07:17
发表于 2014-10-14 11:34
转来转去就是那么些人。久了，就知道彼此了。
