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本帖最后由 满仓 于 2015-3-19 09:02 编辑
【中文标题】中国让自己的反恐局势越来越严峻？
【原文标题】Is China Making Its Own Terrorism Problem Worse?
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文作者】JUSTINE DRENNAN
【原文链接】http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/09/is-china-making-its-own-terrorism-problem-worse-uighurs-islamic-state/
北京说，维吾尔少数民族的激进人士是与伊斯兰国和基地组织有关系的恐怖分子，但是它残暴的政策恰恰是在激化矛盾。
2013年底，一辆越野车冲过北京×××广场的人群，导致2名旁观者死亡，40人受伤。中国官方很快锁定了罪犯，他们说，攻击者是中国维吾尔穆斯林少数民族成员，与“很多国际极端主义恐怖组织有勾结”。警方说他们在撞毁的车辆里找到了一面带有伊斯兰圣战标志的旗帜，并声称这些人都是东突伊斯兰运动成员。这个组织以一个独立国家的名称命名，中国认为这是一些维吾尔人试图在西部省份新疆独立的原因。攻击事件发生之后，外交部发言人华春莹说，东突伊斯兰运动“严重威胁中国国家安全和地区和平稳定”。
北京一直以来把维吾尔族暴力事件归结为恐怖主义行动，谴责攻击者与国际伊斯兰圣战组织有关联。早在2001年，中国发布了一份报告，称“东突厥斯坦”恐怖分子曾经接手奥萨马•本•拉登和塔利班的训练，“在阿富汗、车臣和乌兹别克斯坦参与战争，还有一些回到新疆从事恐怖暴力活动。”从那以后，中国总是把东突伊斯兰运动说成是新疆和其它地方暴力事件的罪魁祸首。
但是，学者、人权组织和维吾尔活动人士都认为，中国有意夸大了维吾尔人的威胁，以为其残暴的新疆政策正名。这个地区曾经大部分居民是维吾尔人，大约有1000万，属于土耳其民族。几十年来，随着北京鼓励汉族移民来把这个混乱的地区融入中国，这些人逐渐被边缘化了。
镇压举措越来越严厉。2009年该地区爆发血腥的暴乱之后，政府采取了针对穆斯林宗教行为的制度，限制面纱和胡须，还实施严格的规定禁止很多人在斋月期间禁食，甚至造访清真寺。强化的安保措施导致一些人被逮捕、处决和疑似遭受酷刑。政府发布的有关如何识别极端分子的材料（所有看起来像是维吾尔族的人）模糊了宗教与恐怖主义的界限。
目前，随着伊斯兰国的崛起，中国再一次通过各种渠道宣称维吾尔人是国际上一股伊斯兰圣战力量。中国政府报刊《环球时报》在12月份称，大约300名中国“极端分子”在伊拉克和叙利亚为伊斯兰国作战。在1月份的报道中说，另外300人前往马来西亚试图加入这个组织，其中很多人都是“东突伊斯兰运动的恐怖分子”。《环球时报》在周四说，伊斯兰国在9月份处决了一位维吾尔武装分子，在12月份又处决了两人，因为他们试图逃离伊斯兰国的控制。报道引用的是一位匿名库尔德官员的话。
很多专家不相信《环球时报》中提到的数字。乔治华盛顿大学研究少数民族的教授Sean Roberts说：“我相信会有维吾尔人加入伊斯兰国，但我同时认为与加入其它组织的人相比，这个数字会非常小。”香港人权观察组织的一位高级研究员Nicholas Bequelin说：“或许顶多就是20到30个人。”他认为中国媒体提到的300这个数字“高得不可想象”。
伊斯兰国的崛起的确有可能让一些无以为家的年轻维吾尔人有了一个为之战斗，甚至为之牺牲的目标。但是，专家认为，维吾尔极端主义行为的爆发主要原因是中国自己所实施的政策。这些政策的目的是打击恐怖主义，却恰恰让威胁变得更加严重。
在中国研究种族身份的人类学家Dru Gladney说，中国针对数百名维吾尔人为伊斯兰国而战的报道似乎“目的是让维吾尔人看起来是一种威胁、是一个伊斯兰恐怖组织”。几家国际媒体转载了中国媒体所报道的数字。Gladney说，中国把数字夸大收到了相反的效果，“他们制造出更多边缘化的恐慌，局势因此而恶化。”
中国并不是凭空捏造这些威胁。据华盛顿近东政策研究所研究员Aaron Zelin提供的信息，一个自称“突厥斯坦伊斯兰党”的组织在宣传材料中说，叙利亚和伊拉克至少有30到40名维吾尔族伊斯兰圣战成员。中国认为这个组织与东突伊斯兰运动有关。突厥斯坦伊斯兰党在网络上的活动越来越积极，曾经有一段视频，内容是少年人在山谷中练习射击。近年来，它宣称为×××广场越野车事件负责。在一段视频中，传说中的领导人阿卜杜拉•曼苏尔呼吁组织成员采取更激烈的行动。
但是很多研究人员怀疑突厥斯坦伊斯兰党的说法，因为其对袭击行为的描述往往与事实不符，看起来不像是一个筹划周密的国际恐怖组织行为。乔治敦大学教授James Millward说，普遍的看法是，激进的海外维吾尔人似乎主要在巴基斯坦活动，而不是在伊拉克和叙利亚。他们对于近期在中国发生的暴力活动并没有提供任何实质性的支持，而仅仅是在鼓吹。英国皇家联合军种国防研究所分析师Raffaello Pantucci说，那些为中东地区伊斯兰圣战组织战斗的人，似乎并没有太高的职位。
但是中国毫不犹豫地给仗义执言的平和维吾尔人贴上了极端分子的标签。去年，新疆一家法庭以“分裂国家”的罪名判处维吾尔族教授伊力哈木•土赫提终身监禁，原因是他建立了一个有关维吾尔族人生活的网站。美国对这项判决给予谴责，国务卿约翰•克里说，遏制温和的声音“只会让情况变得更糟”。
实际上，中国国内的维吾尔恐怖主义行动在过去几年中愈演愈烈。去年3月，8名手持砍刀的男女袭击了云南省昆明市的一座火车站，导致29人死亡，至少130人受伤。4月，携带刀具和炸药的一群人在新疆省会乌鲁木齐火车站发动袭击，造成79人死伤。5月，袭击者驾车闯入乌鲁木齐市的一家商场，并引爆炸弹，死亡31人，90多人受伤。
位于慕尼黑的“世界维吾尔（Uyghur）大会”是这个民族最大的活动组织（它的名字与维吾尔族（Uighur）的拼写不同）。它谴责暴力事件，但是还说，中国利用恐怖组织的威胁来打击和平的异见人士。这个组织位于华盛顿的发言人Alim Seytoff在邮件中回复《外交政策》的采访时说，他们不知道是否有维吾尔人加入伊斯兰国，但即使有，“他们也不能代表大部分热爱和平的维吾尔人。就像那些加入伊斯兰国的美国人、英国人、澳大利亚人和欧洲人，他们不能代表热爱自由的美国、英国、澳大利亚和欧洲人民。”为了回避针对新疆政策的批评，中国“把维吾尔人对人权、宗教自由和民主的合法诉求与国际伊斯兰恐怖主义混为一谈。”
人类学家Gladney说，那些与伊斯兰国有联系的维吾尔人更可能是被对中国的怨气所驱使，而不是以全球化伊斯兰圣战组织为目标。他们接受军事训练是为了与中国作战，甚至建立一个维吾尔国，但是对于一个全球化的伊斯兰领土没有太大的兴趣。分析还指出，那些真正矢志于让伊斯兰领土遍及全球的人，对维吾尔人相对微不足道的志向没有任何兴趣。当然，他们也会做出一些象征性的表态，比如阿布•巴克尔•巴格达迪在去年7月提到中国穆斯林的暴力活动，以及一份基地组织的杂志在去年秋天夸张地对暴行负责。
同时，我们不知道被北京称为最大威胁的东突伊斯兰运动是一个身份鲜明的独立恐怖组织，抑或只是一个松散的个体集合。中国政府最早是在2001年根据一个含混不清的消息来源提到东突伊斯兰组织，当时，时任美国总统的乔治•W•布什刚刚宣布他的“对恐怖行为全球开战”计划。中国说这个组织是“奥萨马•本•拉登全球恐怖网络的一个重要组成部分”。
美国似乎也认为东突伊斯兰组织是现实中的威胁，在2002年把它列为特定国际恐怖组织之一，还在关塔那摩湾监禁了22名在阿富汗和巴基斯坦逮捕的维吾尔人。其中一些人被关押了十多年，但是美国后来承认缺少足够逮捕他们的证据。一年多以前，美国把最后三名犯人移交给斯洛伐克——为数不多的愿意接受这些人的国家之一。
但是乔治华盛顿大学的Roberts在2012年的一篇论文《幻想恐怖主义》中说，华盛顿或许也夸大了维吾尔人的威胁。被关押在关塔那摩的维吾尔人说，他们曾经接受过伊斯兰圣战组织的训练，但他们描述的阿富汗营地是一片规模极小、破败不堪的木屋。Roberts提到，重点是，“那里最多只能允许他们用卡拉什尼科夫冲锋枪打几发子弹”。尽管犯人们普遍对中国人的统治表示愤怒，但他们都不承认隶属于东突伊斯兰组织，很多人还说从未听说过这个名字。
Roberts认为，美国支持中国对东突伊斯兰组织的态度，或许是为了得到中国对其占领阿富汗以及未来占领伊拉克计划的支持。尽管如此，很多国际恐怖分析人士依然在引用政府的官方态度来强化这个组织的性质。乔治敦大学的Millward说，中国利用这样的回应继续扶持它的国际维吾尔威胁概念，把东突伊斯兰组织夸大成新的突厥斯坦伊斯兰党宣传产物。
美国国务院一位官员在接受《外交政策》采访时说，美国把东突伊斯兰组织列为恐怖组织，是经过“深入的研究”，结论是其成员在中国境内采取了恐怖行动，并且有计划袭击美国的海外利益，但他拒绝透露消息的来源。这位官员还说，政府依然在更新这个清单。记者多次致电、发邮件给华盛顿中国大使馆和中国国务院的官员，但没有收到回信。
随着包括美国在内的多个国家积极开展与中国的反恐合作，让人权观察组织的Bequelin担忧的并不是其它国家越来越相信中国的夸大其词，而是所谓的反恐和安全协作，意味着很多国家不但接受，而且在支持中国的残暴政策。
美国国务院的官员说，美国希望在2月份的白宫峰会上讨论如何提升与中国的反恐协作力度，以应对极端分子的暴力行动。美国对中国给予伊拉克的支持，以及中国积极回应联合国禁止外国士兵加入极端组织的决议表示赞赏。“与此同时，我们依然在敦促中国采取行动来缓解新疆的紧张局势，并改变那些限制维吾尔族宗教身份的政策。”
但是目前看来，新疆并没有出现太多令人振奋的迹象，中国也不是唯一一个采取强硬路线的国家。在过去的一年里，英国、科索沃和约旦政府纷纷遭到谴责，他们以反恐的名义打压民权运动和政治反对派，有时候会以美国支持的联合国外国士兵决议为借口，没收护照、监禁嫌疑者。几位新疆问题专家认为，所谓的激进维吾尔人，就类似于其它国家因仇视伊斯兰而被归入极端主义范畴的年轻人。
到目前为止，在为伊斯兰国战斗中唯一被捕的中国公民是一个汉族人——中国一开始还坚称是维吾尔人。但一些维吾尔人依然处处遭到怀疑。3月份，泰国在其境内逮捕了200多名维吾尔人，其中有一些孩子，泰国警方宣称他们正准备前往叙利亚作战。
这些家庭是越来越多试图取道东南亚逃离中国残暴政策的维吾尔人缩影。他们的目的地通常是土耳其，他们在那里往往可以得到同情和收容，因为他们也属于土耳其种族。近年来，维吾尔族外迁者会绕开防守严密的中亚和巴基斯坦边境，转而前往缅甸、越南、柬埔寨、马来西亚和印度尼西亚。昆明火车站的袭击事件或许就是因为中国官方试图阻止这些人前往老挝。
英国皇家联合军种国防研究所的Pantucci说，除了中国方面的影响力，还有其它一些原因让泰国官方认为这些被逮捕的移民虽然声称前往土耳其，但实际目的地是叙利亚。“土耳其是前往叙利亚的必经之路，所以如果这些人试图前往土耳其，那么他们一定想去叙利亚。”
虽然有些人逃脱了监禁，但大部分家庭还在泰国监狱中等待处置。中国要求将这些人遣送回国，同时拒绝了土耳其收容他们的请求。人权活动人士提醒，中国可能会虐待这些人——出于同样的原因，美国并没有把关塔那摩监狱中的犯人转交给中国。
至于新疆，Gladney说，“中国社会各阶层普遍存在担忧的情绪”——甚至包括政府公务员，人们认为中国的政策没有起到作用。很多人认为，让少数民族脱离贫困、融入中国社会的“西方发展”策略，以及过去几年里的“严打”行动，加深了民族仇恨和暴力倾向，不但让当地居民惶惶不可终日，而且让国际社会看到了维吾尔族的困境。正如学者们在很久以前的预测，中国对臆想中维吾尔族威胁所采取的行动，实际上让臆想变成了现实。Gladney说：“二十年前，当我提到维吾尔时，人们都说我疯了。现在所有人都在关注。”
尽管国内外对此事的关注越来越紧密，但Gladney并不认为新疆政策很快会发生变化。“但这是一个会令他们长期纠结的问题，我们将拭目以待。”
原文：
Beijing says radicalized members of its Uighur minority are terrorists with ties to the Islamic State and al Qaeda, but its repressive policies may be helping to fuel the violence.
When an SUV crashed through a crowd at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in late 2013, killing two bystanders and injuring 40, it didn’t take Chinese officials long to name culprits. The attackers, they said, had been members of China’s Uighur Muslim minority, with “links to many international extremist terrorist groups.” Police said they found a flag bearing jihadi emblems in the crashed vehicle and blamed the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, or ETIM, a group named after the independent state China says some Uighurs want to establish in the far-western region of Xinjiang. After the attack, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying called ETIM “China’s most direct and realistic security threat.”
Beijing has long characterized cases of Uighur violence as organized acts of terrorism and accused individual attackers of having ties to international jihadi groups. Back in 2001, China released a document claiming that “Eastern Turkistan” terrorists had received training from Osama bin Laden and the Taliban and then “fought in combats in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Uzbekistan, or returned to Xinjiang for terrorist and violent activities.” Since then, China has frequently blamed ETIM for violence in Xinjiang and elsewhere.
But scholars, human rights groups, and Uighur advocates argue that China is systematically exaggerating the threat Uighurs pose to justify its repressive policies in Xinjiang. The region’s onetime-majority Uighur population of roughly 10 million, which is ethnically Turkic, has been marginalized for decades by ethnic Han Chinese migrants that Beijing has encouraged to move there in the hope that they’d help integrate the restive region into China.
The repression has been getting worse. Since the region’s bloody ethnic clashes in 2009, the government has increased regulations on Muslim practices, restricting veils and beards and strictly enforcing rules that prohibit many from fasting during Ramadan or visiting mosques. Heightened security operations have led in some cases to imprisonment, executions, and suspected torture. Government materials about how to spot extremists (hint: they tend to look like Uighurs) elide religiosity with terrorism.
Now, with the rise of the Islamic State, China has again ramped up its claims about Uighurs waging international jihad. Chinese government-run Global Times asserted in December that about 300 Chinese “extremists” were fighting alongside ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and in January that another 300 had traveled to Malaysia en route to joining the group. The reports suggested that many were “terrorists from the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.” On Thursday, Global Times said ISIS had executed one of these Uighur recruits in September and two in December when they tried to flee its control, attributing the information to an anonymous Kurdish official.
Many experts dismiss Global Times’s numbers. “I assume there are Uighurs joining ISIS, but I also assume the numbers are quite small in comparison to other groups throughout the world,” said Sean Roberts, a George Washington University professor who studies the minority group. “We’re probably talking about 20 to 30 people max.” Nicholas Bequelin, a Hong-Kong-based senior researcher with Human Rights Watch, called Chinese media’s figure of 300 “implausibly high.”
It’s likely that the rise of the Islamic State has given a few disenfranchised young Uighurs a cause to fight and potentially die for. Still, experts say any increase in Uighur extremism is largely due to the fact that the very policies China says are meant to combat terrorism have actually made the threat worse.
Chinese reports about hundreds of Uighurs fighting with the Islamic State are likely “intended to make the Uighurs look as if they’re a threat, an Islamist terrorist organization,” said Dru Gladney, an anthropologist who studies ethnic identities in China. Several international media outlets have repeated the numbers from Chinese media. But China’s inflated claims are ultimately counterproductive, Gladney said. “They create more fear and marginalization, which exACerbates the problem.”
China isn’t wholly inventing the threat. Propaganda material from a group China links to ETIM that calls itself the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) suggests there are at least 30 to 40 Uighur jihadis in Syria and Iraq, according to Washington Institute for Near East Policy fellow Aaron Zelin, who runs the website Jihadology.net. TIP has an increasingly active online presence that includes footage of young children firing guns in mountain valleys. In recent years, it has also claimed responsibility for attacks like the Tiananmen Square SUV incident via videos in which its purported leader, Abdullah Mansour, has called for more attacks.
But many researchers doubt TIP’s claims, as its accounts of attacks often contradict facts on the ground that don’t seem to indicate the sophistication of internationally organized terrorist operations. The general consensus, according to Georgetown professor James Millward, is that radicalized Uighur expats, who mostly seem to be based in Pakistan rather than Iraq and Syria, haven’t provided any operational support for recent violence in China, but rather just propaganda. And any who are fighting with Middle Eastern jihadi groups don’t seem to be rising very high in their ranks, said Raffaello Pantucci, an analyst at London’s Royal United Services Institute.
China, however, has been quick to label moderate Uighurs who speak out as radicals. Last year a Xinjiang court sentenced Uighur professor Ilham Tohti to life in prison on charges of “separatism,” for running a website that discussed Uighur experiences in the region. The United States condemned Tohti’s sentence, with Secretary of State John Kerry warning that silencing moderate voices “can only make tensions worse.”
Indeed, acts of apparent Uighur terrorism within China have risen sharply over the past couple years. An attack last March by eight knife-wielding men and women at a train station in Yunnan province’s city of Kunming left 29 dead and at least 130 wounded. In April, people armed with knives and explosives killed three and injured 79 at the railway station in Xinjiang’s capital, Urumqi. The next month, attackers crashed two cars into shoppers at an Urumqi market and set off explosives, killing 31 and injuring more than 90.
The Munich-based World Uyghur Congress, the leading advocacy organization for the minority (which uses an alternate spelling of the group’s name), condemns violence but says China uses the threat of terrorism to stifle peaceful dissent as well. Alim Seytoff, the Washington spokesman for the group, told Foreign Policy by email that he didn’t know whether any Uighurs had joined ISIS, but if they had, “they by no means represent the vast majority of peace-loving Uyghur people, just as those who joined ISIS from the U.S., the U.K., Australia and Europe by no means represent the freedom-loving peoples of America, Great Britain, Australia and Europe.” In order to deflect criticism of its Xinjiang policies, China is “conflating the Uyghur people’s legitimate demands for human rights, religious freedom, and democracy with international Islamic terrorism,” he said.
Gladney, the anthropologist, said any Uighurs with ties to ISIS were more likely driven by resentment of China than by aims of global jihad. They may want militant training to fight China and even to establish a Uighur state, he said, but they’re less interested in creating a global caliphate. Analysts also note that those who do desire a global caliphate seem to have little more than a passing interest in Uighurs’ relatively parochial aspirations, despite some token gestures, such as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s reference to Chinese violations of Muslim rights last July, and exaggerated claims about such abuses made last fall by an al Qaeda-run magazine.
Meanwhile, it’s unclear if the group Beijing singles out as the greatest threat, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, comprises a distinct, self-identified terrorist entity or a looser grouping of individuals. The Chinese government first mentioned ETIM in a vaguely sourced document in 2001, shortly after then-U.S. President George W. Bush announced his “global war on terror.” In it, China called the group “a major component of the terrorist network headed by Osama bin Laden.”
United States seemed to agree that ETIM posed a real threat, listing the group as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group in 2002 and detaining 22 Uighurs captured in Afghanistan and Pakistan at Guantánamo Bay. Some were held for more than a decade, though the United States later acknowledged that it didn’t have adequate evidence against them. Just over a year ago it sent the last three to Slovakia — one of a handful of small countries that agreed to host them.
But George Washington University’s Roberts concluded in a 2012 paper titled “Imaginary Terrorism?” that Washington also may have inflated the Uighur threat. The Uighur detainees at Guantánamo who said they’d received jihadi training described a training camp in Afghanistan that amounted to a small, run-down shack. The highlight, in Roberts’s words: “A one-time opportunity to fire a few bullets with the only Kalashnikov rifle that was available at the camp.” Although detainees expressed anger about Chinese rule, they all denied belonging to ETIM, and many said they’d never heard of the group.
Roberts has argued that the United States may have backed China’s claims about ETIM in order to cement China’s support for the occupation of Afghanistan and, later, Iraq. Nevertheless, various international terrorism analysts continued to perpetuate the allegations about ETIM in work that cited government statements as their primary sources. According to Georgetown’s Millward, China uses this echo chamber of supposed evidence about ETIM to keep alive the idea of an international Uighur threat, conflating ETIM with the newer, propaganda-producing Turkistan Islamic Party.
A U.S. State Department official told Foreign Policy that the United States designated ETIM a terrorist group “after careful study,” having concluded that its members were responsible for terrorism in China and were planning attacks on U.S. interests abroad, but declined to specify the sources of this information. The official added that the government still maintains this listing. Officials at Washington’s Chinese Embassy and China’s State Council didn’t return repeated calls and emails seeking comment.
What worries Human Rights Watch’s Bequelin, as several countries including the United States move to scale up counterterrorism cooperation with China, isn’t so much that other countries believe China’s inflated claims. It’s more that the need to cooperate on security and other goals may mean de facto acceptance of, or even practical assistance for, China’s repressive policies.
The State Department official said the United States hopes to discuss how to enhance counterterrorism cooperation with China at an upcoming White House summit on countering violent extremism in February, and appreciates China’s aid to Iraq and support for U.N. resolutions aimed at stopping foreign fighters from joining extremist groups. “At the same time we continue to urge China to take measures to reduce tension and reform counterproductive policies in Xinjiang that restrict Uighurs’ ethnic and religious identity,” the official said.
But for now, there aren’t too many promising signs from Xinjiang. And China isn’t the only place taking a hard line. Over the past year, governments from the U.K. to Kosovo to Jordan have been accused of clamping down on civil liberties or political opponents in the name of counterterrorism, some basing their actions to seize passports and detain suspects on the U.S.-backed U.N. foreign fighters resolution. Several Xinjiang experts draw parallels between radicalized Uighurs and young men from other countries drawn to extremism in part due to Islamophobia or alienation at home.
So far, the one Chinese national known to have been captured while fighting for ISIS appeared to be Han Chinese — despite initial Chinese allegations that he was Uighur. But some Uighurs still face particular suspicion about their aims. In March, Thailand detained more than 200 Uighurs within its borders, and although the group comprised families with several young children, Thai police asserted that they were headed to fight in Syria.
The families were among growing numbers of Uighurs seeking to flee Chinese repression via Southeast Asia. Their ultimate destination is usually Turkey, where many sympathize with Uighurs because they are also a Turkic people. In recent years, Uighur emigrants skirting tightened border regimes in Central Asia and Pakistan have turned up in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Indonesia, as well as Thailand. The Kunming train station attackers may have been provoked to violence in part because Chinese officials thwarted their attempt to cross into Laos.
It’s possible that reasons other than Chinese influence caused Thai authorities to conclude that the apprehended migrants, who claimed to be Turkish, were headed to Syria, said Pantucci of London’s RUSI. “The problem now is that Turkey is the staging point for Syria, so the perception is if they’re trying to go to Turkey, they must be trying to go to Syria.”
Although some escaped from custody, many of the families detained in Thailand are still in limbo. China demands their repatriation and rejects Turkey’s offer to take them in; human rights advocates warn that China is likely to mistreat them — the same reason the United States didn’t send the Gitmo detainees back to China.
As for Xinjiang, Gladney said, there are “growing concerns at all levels of Chinese society” — even among some government wonks — that China’s policies aren’t working. Many believe the “western development” strategy meant to lift minorities out of poverty and integrate them into Chinese society, as well as the “strike hard” campaign of the past several years, have only stoked further resentment and violence, spread alarm through the population, and drawn more international attention to Uighurs’ plight. As scholars long predicted, China’s actions against a perceived Uighur threat seem to have actually made that threat more real. “Twenty years ago people thought I was crazy talking about Uighurs,” Gladney said. “Now there’s lots of interest.”
Despite increased attention at home and abroad, Gladney didn’t see China making significant changes to its Xinjiang policy any time soon. “But they may tweak it,” he said, “and that will be the thing to watch.”
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