【路透社 20150319】俄罗斯或将推迟中俄东线输气管道完工时间

独秀文译青年

Russia may postpone completion of a huge pipeline to bring gas from two new fields to China, three sources with direct knowledge of the plans of export firm Gazprom said, delaying one of President Vladimir Putin's signature projects.

据直接了解俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(俄气/Gazprom)计划的三名消息人士，俄罗斯可能推迟一个大型输气项目的完工时间，该项目将把两个新气田的天然气输送至中国。这是俄总统普京亲自推动的一个项目之一。

The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the "Power of Siberia" project may be put off until Moscow completes a separate, less ambitious project to send gas from existing fields to China through a pipeline thousands of kilometres further west.

要求匿名的知情人士表示，“西伯利亚力量”项目可能推迟到俄罗斯完成另外一个西线项目。西线管道从现有气田向中国输气，规模较小。

Russia has denied that it has any plans to postpone the $55 billion "Power of Siberia" pipeline, despite a fall in global energy prices that has hurt the case for the investment required to develop the new fields it would serve.

俄罗斯一直否认计划推迟投资高达550亿美元的“西伯利亚力量”项目，尽管全球能源价格重挫削弱了投资开发新气田的理由。

Gazprom declined to comment.

俄气拒绝置评。

The three industry and banking sources said Moscow could postpone completion of the route until after it builds the cheaper "Altai" route from existing fields to China's west.

三名业内和银行业消息人士称，俄罗斯可能推迟完成该线管道完工时间，直到建成耗资较小的“阿尔泰”管道，后者从现有气田向中国西部输气。

Putin has personally overseen work on the 4,000 km (2,500 mile), $55 billion eastern "Power of Siberia" pipeline.

普京亲自督办的“西伯利亚力量”管道，长达4,000公里(2,500英里)，造价高达550亿美元。

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Moscow is determined to find new markets for its gas as Europe cuts back its reliance on Russian energy. The signing of the long awaited "Power of Siberia" deal in May was a diplomatic coup for the Kremlin.

随着欧洲削弱对俄罗斯能源的依赖，俄罗斯下定决心为其天然气找寻新市场。去年5月签署期待已久的“西伯利亚力量”协议，是俄罗斯政府的一场外交胜利。

It which would deliver 38 billion cubic metres of gas a year from new gas fields to China's eastern industrial heartland. Some gas could also be shipped from Russia's Pacific Ocean port at Vladivostok.

根据该协议，俄罗斯每年将从新气田向中国东部工业中心输送380亿立方米天然气。还有一些天然气可能从俄罗斯的太平洋沿岸港口符拉迪沃斯托克(Vladivostok/海参崴)运出。

But the global fall in energy prices hurts the case for the investment required to develop the new gas fields in remote eastern Siberia north of Mongolia that would be hooked up to the pipe. The prices for gas in the deal, though not made public, are believed to be linked to the global price of oil, which has halved since it was signed last May.

但全球能源价格下滑，可能影响在偏远的西伯利亚东部地区开发新气田所需的投资，进而影响管道建设。虽然该协议的天然气价格未被公开，但外界相信该价格将与国际油价相关。而自去年5月协议签署以来国际油价已经腰斩。

Meanwhile, Moscow needs new outlets for gas from fields it has already developed further west, including the giant Bovanenkovo Yamal field opened in 2012.

同时，俄罗斯还需为Bovanenkovo Yamal等西部气田生产的天然气找到新买家。

Europe, Moscow's main export market, cut imports from Russia by 9 percent to 147 bcm last year.

俄罗斯的主要出口市场--欧洲去年将俄罗斯天然气进口量削减9%至1,470亿立方米。

"Yamal gas needs new markets - that's why Gazprom is pushing for the Altai route. That's why neither Vladivostok nor the Power of Siberia are a priority - the last one even has no source to be connected to," a banker close to Gazprom said.

“Yamal天然气需要新市场，因此俄气在推进阿尔泰管道项目。这是符拉迪沃斯托克和西伯利亚力量都不是当务之急的原因...”接近俄气的银行家表示。

A Gazprom source agreed with the assessment, saying that Altai "is a priority".

来自俄气的消息人士认同这一看法，称阿尔泰项目是“优先任务”。

CHEAPER FOR MOSCOW, WORSE FOR BEIJING

西线对俄罗斯便宜，但对中国不利

The western alternative Altai route would provide China with gas from Yamal, which is now pumped south from the Arctic to Russia's domestic system and westwards to Europe. But the route is considerably less attractive to China, which already has gas in its far west, and needs it in the industrial east.

西部阿尔泰管线可将天然气从亚马尔输往中国，目前该地区的天然气从北极向南输送至俄罗斯国内系统，同时也有部分向西输往欧洲。但如果输往中国，则吸引力差很多，因为中国西部并不缺天然气，真正需要的是东部工业发达地区。

Russia and China signed a framework agreement in November for the Altai gas pipeline to sell 30 billion cubic metres of gas to China per year for 30 years. Russia hopes to sign a final deal in the first half of 2015.

中俄在去年11月签署阿尔泰天然气管线框架协议，计划未来30年每年向中国提供300亿立方米天然气。俄罗斯希望2015年上半年能签署最终协议。

The Altai pipeline is much cheaper to build for Russia than the "Power of Siberia" project, and would soak up existing spare capacity rather than require the development of new fields.

对俄罗斯来说，阿尔泰管线造价要远低于“西伯利亚力量”项目，而且可以吸收现有的闲置产能，无需开发新气田。

But Altai gas would reach China at its remote far western border, requiring a huge new pipeline system within China to take it to cities mainly in the centre and east.

但阿尔泰天然气只能到达中国西部偏远地区，需要在中国境内新建大量管线系统，才能输送到主要位于中部和东部的大城市。

"Linking the Altai pipeline with major gas consumers of China is a huge project. It would require a serious change of the Chinese five-year plan. It is a major obstacle for Gazprom," said gas analyst Mikhail Korchemkin.

“把阿尔泰管线同中国主要的天然气消费者连接起来，是一个很大的工程。中国的五年发展规划也要相应作出重大改变。这是俄气面前的一个严重障碍，”天然气分析师Mikhail Korchemkin说。

He predicted that Chinese customers would demand steep discounts, with a price "likely to be much lower than the average price of European exports of Gazprom".

他预测中国客户会要求大幅折扣，售价“可能远远低于俄气对欧洲出口的平均价格”。

For now, Beijing says it is still interested in both projects, which would help it reduce its reliance on coal, but its preference for the eastern route is clear.

目前中国政府表示仍对两个项目都感兴趣，但显然更加青睐东线。

"Russia's idea of the western route first is not new. It's been put on the table for discussions for some time," said Zeng Xingqiu, industry veteran and advisor to China National Petroleum Corp, with which Gazprom is in talks.

中国石油天然气集团公司顾问曾兴球表示，俄罗斯先建西线的设想并不是新提出来的，对此已经讨论过一段时间了。俄气目前正在与中石油谈判。

A source in a consultancy firm which works with Gazprom said the Russian gas firm should decide by summer which pipeline to build first.

与俄气合作的一家咨询公司的消息人士表示，俄气最晚夏季应该会确定先建设哪条管线。

"If there is a solid contract ... then the western route could be built faster than the one from Yakutia (in the east)," the source said. A Gazprom source confirmed the timeframe for the decision.

“如果签订了具体的合同...那么西部管线的建设可能快于(东部)从Yakutia出发的线路，”这位消息人士说。俄气一位消息人士也证实了有关决策时间的说法。

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