【英媒 20150323】各国央行接力放水 全球汇率战悄然爆发

独秀文译青年

If 25 countries cutting rates since the start of the year wasn't proof enough, this week's warning from Janet Yellen about the dollar's strength confirmed that the world's top central banks are fighting a currency war.

如果自年初以来25个国家降息尚且不足以证明汇率战的苗头，那么本周美国联邦储备委员会(美联储，FED)主席叶伦有关美元力道的警告就确认了，全球主要央行在打汇率战。

The scale of global easing has been the big surprise for investors this year. On average an interest rate has been cut somewhere in the world once every 2.85 days, and everybody's been at it.

今年全球政策宽松程度让投资者大感意外。全球来看，平均每2.85天就有一个国家降息，几乎所有国家都参与其中。

From the ECB with its 1 trillion euro QE bazooka, China, India and Russia in emerging markets, to Denmark and Switzerland where rates are now so negative that it would be cheaper for anyone with serious money to rent a vault and some heavies with machine guns than to keep it at the central bank.

从推出万亿欧元量化宽松的欧洲央行，到中国、印度和俄罗斯等新兴市场，再到降息至负利率的丹麦和瑞士，宽松政策已然遍地开花。

But this week has seen a dramatic shift in the front line of the battle.

但本周，这场战斗的前线阵地发生重大转变。

As the central bankers' central bank, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) put it on Wednesday, "easing begets easing." Institutions like the BIS prefer to avoid emotive phrases like "currency wars", but the message was clear.

国际清算银行(BIS)周三对此这样描述，“宽松政策在国家间蔓延”。BIS等机构希望避免采用“汇率战”等情绪化的措辞，但所传递的信息已经了然可见。

Later that day Federal Reserve chief Yellen ran out of "patience". Markets had been waiting for her to remove the word in reference to the bank's view on raising rates.

当日稍晚，美联储主席叶伦失掉“耐心”。市场此前一直等待叶伦在谈到美联储对升息看法时，删除这一措辞。

She did, but it was her subsequent warning that the dollar's 25 percent rise over the last nine months could have a "notable drag" on the U.S. economy that signalled the Fed was joining the currency battle too.

她的确这样做了，但是是她随后的警告，称过去九个月美元指数大涨25%的走势可能给美国经济带来“严重拖累”，显示美联储也正加入了汇率战。

The dollar saw its biggest daily fall against the euro in six years and against all major currencies in 2-1/2 years, which also triggered wild moves in global stock, bond and commodity prices.

美元兑欧元和美元指数分别遭遇六年和两年半最大单日跌幅，这亦触发全球股市、债券和大宗商品价格剧烈波动。

It wasn't only the United States that was agitating either.

表现如此激动的央行不止美联储一家。

The Bank of England, the only other major central bank expected to raise interest rates any time soon, fired a warning about sterling's strength and Sweden stunned markets with a surprise rate cut and increase to its QE programme.

唯一另一家预计很快升息的主要央行--英国央行对英镑强势发出猛烈警告，瑞典央行更是意外降息并增扩量化宽松(QE)规模。

"This is the name of the game now," said Hans Peterson, global head of asset allocation at SEB investment management. "There is slow growth everywhere and that puts put more emphasis on the currency parameter."

“这现在成了这个游戏的名字，”SEB投资管理的全球资产配置主管Hans Peterson表示。“全球各地的增长都缓慢，投资者更加重视汇率。”

With growth unlikely to ramp up soon, he said, central bankers were likely to continue threatening further easing to try and to pressure on their currencies and squeeze out every drop of growth they can.

由于经济增长短时间内不大可能大幅提高，他说央行总裁们可能继续喊话要进一步宽松政策，压低本币，希望把每一滴增长的潜能都挤出来。

"If you think about global investing, it (currency war) is the most important variable we have right now," Peterson added. "We like to try to catch that effect."

“如果考虑全球投资，这(货币战争)是目前最主要的不确定因素，”Peterson补充说。“我们试图考虑到到这方面的影响。”

DARK AND DESTRUCTIVE

造成巨大破坏性

The stats back Peterson's view. European equity funds have seen record inflows this year as investors have made big bets that the 25 percent drop in the euro against the dollar over the last year will lead to bumper sales for the region's firms.

统计数据支持了Peterson的观点。今年涌入欧洲股市基金的资金创纪录高位，投资者押注欧元兑美元的大幅贬值有助于该地区公司营收激增。过去一年欧元兑美元贬值25%。

And anticipating the dollar's rise, big multi-billion dollar mutual funds have been scaling back on assets that are not dollar denominated, seismic moves which have fuelled much of the euro and emerging market selling.

由于预期美元升值，规模达数十亿美元的共同基金大幅削减非美元资产，这样大规模的资产流动又助燃了欧元相当一部分的跌幅和新兴市场资产抛售。

But with the frontline in the battle clearly shifting this week after the Fed and BoE interventions, investors may have to think more carefully about their options.

经历了本周的美联储和英国央行相关消息后，这场战斗的前线阵地明显改变，投资者在考虑他们的选择时可能必须更谨慎。

The dollar has long borne the brunt of other currencies' weakness, effectively allowing these countries to export their deflation to the U.S. economy, which has been relatively strong so able to cope with the downward pressure exerted on growth.

长期以来美元都在担负其他货币疲软的影响，实际上使这些国家向美国经济输入通缩，美国经济一直相对较强，可以应对这种下行压力。

But according to David Bloom, global head of currency strategy at HSBC, any further dollar strength from here would likely be "dark and destructive" for all asset classes, emerging markets, and central banks' policymaking.

但汇丰控股外汇策略全球主管David Bloom称，如果美元进一步上扬，对所有的资产类别、新兴市场和央行决策来说，都可能是“黑暗的、具有毁灭性的”。

Stocks are becoming more sensitive to further bouts of dollar strength, dollar-denominated debtors in emerging markets are becoming increasingly twitchy, and as central bankers have shown this week, so are policymakers.

股市正变得对美元进一步走强的反应更加敏感，新兴市场以美元计价的债务人正变得更加焦虑不安，决策者们也愈发紧张，就像央行官员本周的表现一样。

Bloom and his team went against the overwhelming market consensus on Thursday, raising its euro forecast to $1.20 by the end of 2017. Two of its main peers, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, this month slashed their euro forecasts to $0.80 and $0.85, respectively.

Bloom和他的团队在周四逆势而动，将2017年年底的欧元汇价预估上调至1.20美元，而高盛和德意志银行本月将欧元预估分别下调至0.80美元和0.85美元。

"The dollar's strength up to now has been constructive and good for the world. But the sweet spot is over," Bloom said.

“截至目前，美元强势对全球是具有建设性的，是有利的。但甜蜜期已经过去。”Bloom说。