【路透社20150325】科学家称动物或可成为地震“预报员”

独秀文译青年

Wild animals can predict earthquakes several weeks before they strike, and motion-activated cameras that track their movements could be adopted in quake-prone countries as an affordable early warning system, scientists said on Tuesday.

科学家周二称，野生动物可以在地震发生前数周就有预感，因此在地震多发国家，用动能感应相机追踪动物活动，可能是成本较低的地震早期预警方式。

Scientists using a series of cameras in an Amazon region of Peru noticed changes in animal behavior three weeks before a 7.0 magnitude quake hit the area in 2011, according to a study published in the journal Physics and Chemistry of the Earth.

《地球物理与化学》（Physics and Chemistry of the Earth）杂志刊登的研究报告显示，2011年秘鲁7.0级强震三周前，科学家在秘鲁的亚马逊丛林区用相机观察到动物的行为方式变化。

In a 23-day period before the earthquake, scientists recorded five or fewer animal sightings a day, compared with five to 15 sightings per day previously.

在地震前的23天里，科学家们每天观测到动物的次数为5次或更少，而每天之前观测到的次数通常为5-15次。

For five of the seven days immediately before the quake, no animal movements were recorded, which was highly unusual for the mountainous rainforest region, the study's authors said.

研究报告作者们称，在地震发生前的7天里，有5天没有观测到动物，这在当地是非常罕见的。

Scientists have long believed that animals can predict earthquakes, but have until now relied on anecdotal evidence of changes in animal behavior, they said.

他们指出，科学家们一直认为动物可以预知地震，但到目前为止主要依赖于缺乏实证的动物行为方式变化迹象。

Rachel Grant, lead author of the report and lecturer in Animal and Environmental Biology at Britain's Anglia Ruskin University, said the study was the first to document a fall in animal activity before an earthquake.

研究报告的主要作者、英国安格利亚鲁斯金大学动物与环境生物专业讲师格朗特（Rachel Grant）称，此项研究是首次记录地震前动物活动减少的情况。

"Animals have the potential to be reliable forecasters of earthquakes and could be used alongside other monitoring systems," Grant told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. "The system could be used in developing and earthquake-prone countries, it is affordable and feasible to implement as it just requires someone to monitor animal behavior... there is no need for satellites."

“动物可以成为预测地震的可靠工具，可以和其他监测系统一起使用。”格朗特对汤森路透基金会说，“该系统可以用于发展中国家和地震多发国家，因其成本较低且切实可行，只要有人去监测动物行为就行，不需要卫星。”

These changes can lead to elevated serotonin levels in the bloodstream and have side-effects on animals and humans, such as restlessness, hyperactivity and agitation, the study said.

此项研究记录了地震两周前大气的变化，而这些变化会导致血液中的血清素水平升高，这会对动物和人类产生影响。

While the change in atmosphere affected all species of animals in the rainforest, rodents, which started disappearing eight days before the earthquake, were the animals most sensitive to the seismic activity, Grant said.

格朗特指出，大气变化影响到了雨林中的所有类别动物，但啮齿动物则表现得最为敏感，在地震8天前就开始渐渐看不到啮齿动物了。

"With their acute ability to sense their environment, animals can help us understand subtle changes that occur before major earthquakes," report co-author Friedemann Freund said.

研究报告的共同作者福伦德（Friedemann Freund）称：“动物对环境非常敏感，有助我们了解大地震前的细微变化。”

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