【纽约时报 20150401】中国与中东的专制

满仓

【中文标题】中国与中东的专制
【原文标题】Tell Me How This Ends Well
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【原文作者】Thomas L. Friedman
【原文链接】http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/01/opinion/thomas-friedman-tell-me-how-this-ends-well.html?ref=topics&_r=0




上个星期我在中国，站在中土帝国的角度观察世界，总是件很有启发的事情。有时候，仅仅阅读当地的报纸就能获得很多灵感。3月25日，《中国日报》发表了一篇文章，详细描述“北京当局”如何“在这个星期对幼儿园进行巡视检查，确保孩子们没有过多的作业负担。尽管中国规定数学和英语教育在小学才开始，但全国各地有很多学龄前的孩子被迫学这些内容。”文章进一步解释为什么“在上学前就开始为大学入学备考”是有害无益的。

读着这篇文章，我脑海中不由得浮现出一个场景：来自中国教育部的一支特警部队来到一家幼儿园，破门而入，大喊：“放下铅笔和书本！远离课桌！不会有人受到伤害！”

这到底有什么问题？幼儿园学习数学和英语太早了吗？

同样一张报纸还有另外一篇文章，有关也门亲伊朗的什叶派与亲沙特的逊尼派之间的最新冲突。冲突主要发生在也门的第二大城市塔兹。塔兹？等一下！2013年5月我曾经在塔兹拍摄一步纪录片，有关也门的环境灾难。我们之所以关注塔兹，是因为也门糟糕的生态环境导致，塔兹居民家里的水龙头30天里只有36个小时可以接到自来水。

所以你明白了。中国的新闻就是打击早期幼儿园教授数学和英语的行为，也门的新闻就是逊尼派和什叶派在争夺一个每月只有36个小时有自来水的城市，其它时间居民只能等待水车。至少在最近战况发生之间是这样的。

但至少我们发现了原因所在。我感觉，这都是奥巴马总统的错。我希望是这样。奥巴马在中东曾经说了一些愚蠢的话，做了一些愚蠢的事情（例如不计后果地干掉利比亚政权），但没有考虑日后陷入这个地区混乱局面的可能。我们现在面对的问题，前任总统从未遇到过：在经历了70年糟糕统治之后，阿拉伯国家已经崩溃。

与亚洲的比较结果显而易见。二战后，亚洲出现了很多独裁统治者，他们对人民说：“我的子民，我们要剥夺你们的自由，但是我们会提供最好的教育、基础设施和金钱可以买到的出口导向型经济增长。你们最终会成为庞大的中产阶级中的一员，以此来获得自由。”与此同时，阿拉伯独裁者对他的人民说：“我的子民，我们要剥夺你们的自由，赐予你们阿拉伯和以色列的冲突。”

亚洲独裁者都是现代化的开拓者，比如新加坡的李光耀——他在上周去世，享年91岁。你可以看到今天的状况：新加坡人原意排队10个小时，等待最后一次瞻仰那个让他们从一穷二白跃居全球中产阶级的人。阿拉伯独裁者就像是食肉动物，他们利用与以色列之间的冲突作为幌子，回避自身国家管理不善的事实。结果是，利比亚、也门、叙利亚和伊拉克变成了人间地狱。

有人曾经预见到这样的现象。2002年，一个阿拉伯社会科学团体编写了联合国阿拉伯人权发展报告。其中提到，阿拉伯世界面临严重的自由、知识和女性权力匮乏问题。如果不试图加以扭转，结局必将不可收拾。阿拉伯联盟对此不加关注。2011年，受过高等教育的阿拉伯民众在时局变得不可收拾之前，挺身而出，试图做出改变。除了突尼斯之外（唯一一个独裁者也是现代化开拓者的阿拉伯国家），改革的声音逐渐消退。所以，现在的结局就不大好收拾：国家崩溃、部落混乱、派系内战（什叶派与逊尼派、波斯人与阿拉伯人），全部发生在一个高失业率、充满了愤怒青年和几乎停止运作的学校——即使课程没有中断，教授的也大部分是宗教知识，而不是数学——的地区。

我看到埃及总统阿卜杜勒•法塔赫•塞西宣称：“我们阿拉伯国家安全面临的挑战非常严峻，我们已经成功分析出背后的原因。”原因是什么？阿拉伯国家没有充分联合起来对抗波斯人和伊斯兰人。真的吗？在美国自1979年开始累计500亿美元的援助之后，今天埃及25％的人是文盲。（中国文盲的比例是5％，伊朗是15％。）我非常同情这个地区的人民，但是你们的领导人已经浪费了70年，这个巨大的黑洞难以填补。

公平地说，塞西是想拯救埃及与水火之中。尽管如此，埃及还是有可能出兵镇压也门的叛乱。如果的确如此，那么这可能是有史以来第一次有一个文盲率高达25％的国家，派兵拯救一个每个月只有36个小时提供自来水服务的国家，目的是镇压一场根源在于7世纪谁才是先知默罕默德正宗继承人的战争——什叶派还是逊尼派。

中国的学龄前儿童可以告诉你：这不是一个等式。




原文：

I’ve been in China for the last week. It’s always instructive to see how the world looks from the Middle Kingdom. Sometimes the best insights come from just reading the local papers. On March 25, The China Daily published an essay detailing how “Beijing authorities” had “launched inspection tours of kindergartens this week to ensure that children are not overburdened with schoolwork. Although Chinese, mathematics and English are supposed to be taught to primary school students, it is not uncommon to see pre-school-age children across China being forced to study these subjects.” The essay went on to explain why it wasn’t healthy to “begin preparing for the college entrance exam” in preschool.

Reading that, I suddenly had a vision of a SWAT team from China’s Ministry of Education bursting through the doors of kindergartens and declaring: “Put those pencils and books down! Back away from your desks, and nobody gets hurt!”

What a problem to have! Kindergartens teaching math and English too soon.

In the same paper, there was also an article about the latest fighting between Shiite pro-Iranian and Sunni pro-Saudi factions in Yemen. Clashes there have focused on Yemen’s second-largest town, Taiz. Taiz? Wait a minute! I was in Taiz in May 2013 working on a documentary about how Yemen was becoming an environmental disaster. We focused on Taiz because, as a result of Yemen’s devastated ecosystems, residents of Taiz get to run their home water faucets for only 36 hours every 30 days or so.

So there you have it. The news out of China is the crackdown on kindergartens teaching math and English too early, and the news out of Yemen is that Sunni and Shiite factions are fighting over a town that is already so cracked up the water comes on only 36 hours a month and the rest of the time you have to rely on roving water trucks. And that was before the latest fighting.

But at least we’ve found the problem. I’ve read that it’s all President Obama’s fault. I wish. Obama has said and done some boneheaded things in the Middle East (like decapitating the Libyan regime with no plan for the morning after), but being wary about getting further embroiled in this region is not one of them. We’re dealing here with something no president has had to face: the collapse of the Arab state system after 70 years of failed governance.

Again, the comparison with Asia is instructive. After World War II, Asia was ruled by many autocrats who essentially came to their people and said, “My people, we’re going to take away your freedom, but we’re going to give you the best education, infrastructure and export-led growth policies money can buy. And eventually you’ll build a big middle class and win your freedom.” Over that same period, Arab autocrats came to their people and said, “My people, we’re going to take away your freedom and give you the Arab-Israel conflict.”

Asian autocrats tended to be modernizers, like Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, who just died last week at 91 — and you see the results today: Singaporeans waiting in line for 10 hours to pay last respects to a man who vaulted them from nothing into the global middle class. Arab autocrats tended to be predators who used the conflict with Israel as a shiny object to distract their people from their own misgovernance. The result: Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iraq are now human development disaster areas.

Some saw this coming. In 2002, a group of Arab social scientists produced the U.N.’s Arab Human Development Report. It said the Arab world suffered deficits of freedom, knowledge and women’s empowerment, and, if it did not turn around, it would get where it was going. It was ignored by the Arab League. In 2011, the educated Arab masses rose up to force a turnaround before they got where they were going. Except for Tunisia (the only Arab country whose autocrat was also a modernizer), that awakening fizzled out. So now they’ve gotten where they were going: state collapse and a caldron of tribal, sectarian (Shiite-Sunni, Persian-Arab) civil wars — in a region bulging with unemployed, angry youths and schools that barely function, or, if they do, they teach an excess of religion not math.

I read President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt declaring that “the challenges facing our national Arab security are grave, and we have succeeded in diagnosing the reasons behind it.” And that was? Too little Arab cooperation against Persians and Islamists. Really? Some 25 percent of Egyptians are illiterate today after $50 billion in U.S. aid since 1979. (In China, illiteracy is 5 percent; in Iran, 15 percent.) My heart goes out to all the people in this region. But when your leaders waste 70 years, the hole is really deep.

In fairness, Sisi is trying to dig Egypt out. Nevertheless, Egypt may send troops to defeat the rebels in Yemen. If so, it would be the first case of a country where 25 percent of the population can’t read sending troops to rescue a country where the water comes through the tap 36 hours a month to quell a war where the main issue is the 7th century struggle over who is the rightful heir to the Prophet Muhammad — Shiites or Sunnis.

Any Chinese preschooler can tell you: That’s not an equation for success.

大汉子民

好文，尽管是从西方角度看中国。