【CNN 20160310】中美军备竞争

满仓

【中文标题】中美军备竞争
【原文标题】China's military is gearing up to compete with the U.S.
【登载媒体】CNN
【原文作者】Yvonne Chiu
【原文链接】http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/09/opinions/china-military-reform/index.html


中国军方放出的信号显示，他们正在加紧军备筹建，与美国竞争全球霸主的地位。中国的多层次改革目的是让其军队尽快实现现代化和专业化。

中国最引人瞩目的一项举动是计划在吉布提建立一个海外军事基地，这是当代中国的第一个海外军事基地。基建工作在上周已经开始。有传言说中国已经谈定了一个为期10年的合同，但是中国对于这个自称为“军事支持设施”的项目不愿透露任何细节。根据国防部发言人吴谦所说，官方的目的是“为中国在亚丁湾、索马里近海的维和部队，以及联合国的其他人道主义行动保驾护航、提供后勤支持”，包括打击海盗的任务。

中国的基地紧邻美国在非洲唯一的军事基地。这事极为重要的战略区域，对于保护阿拉伯半岛的油船和进入该地区有重要的意义。

削减预算、裁军

中国在周日宣布，2016年的军事预算增长幅度为7.6％，比以往两位数字的增长幅度放缓，但实际增长可能会高出很多。在9月份的阅兵期间，中国还宣布裁军30万，这项举措被视为对庞大军费负担的小幅缩减，人民解放军的规模依然在200万以上。但近期的一些迹象显示，裁军的主要对象是文职官员，包括政治官员。

以上仅仅是未来几年一系列改革举措中的一部分。

2月份，七大军区被改制成五大军区（北、南、东、西、中），部分管理军备、后勤、人事和政治的机构领导由中国共产党的中央军委直接委任。正在进行中的一个行动是，把解放军从陆军主导的部队转化成整合了地面部队、海军、空军和导弹部队的联合作战力量。这个行动不仅提升了军队的作战能力，而且强化的党对于解放军的掌控。以往的解放军基本内部自治。

军售



在最近十年里，中国的海外军售几乎翻了一番，成为继美国和俄罗斯之后的第三大武器出口国。上个月，中国在新加坡航展上战士了J-10战斗机，期望找到买家。（潜在的买家包括巴基斯坦、伊朗、叙利亚。）有能力进行武器出口，不仅仅是一种收入的来源，而且是展示军事影响力和全球领导力的信号，还可以促成政治同盟。

中国还改造了一艘前苏联的航空母舰，作为自己的第一艘航母，并且在2012年让J-15战斗机成功在航母上起落。它还试图建造第二艘本土航母。这一行动被公众理解为，中国即将打造一个深水海军部队（可以跨洋作战的部队）。在它购买第一艘航母时，这似乎不是一个实际的目标，但是随着机制改革，联合作战部队的形成是大势所趋。

海外

鉴于这些行动，中国似乎已经勾选了成为全球超级大国的所有必要条件，这是一个历史和意识形态方面的重大变革。解放军近来关注的重点是保护中国边境不受侵扰，部分原因是意识形态层面的，中国拒绝采取有可能被视为法西斯主义和帝国主义的行为（尤其是建立海外军事基地）。为了重新恢复中国在国际上应有地位的努力，在国内也有重要的意义，这些努力在不经意间已经成为党的合法性所在。至少到目前为之，它成功地煽动起民众民族主义情绪的火焰。

总体看来，这些发展是否成功地展示出中国“和平发展”的目标？是也不是。很明显，中国不仅希望在亚太地区称霸，而且要与美国竞争。它首先一个举措是声称对南中国海领土的所有权，它造出一些“岛屿”来测试国际社会对其延伸领土范围的反应。而长期的一些举措，包括联合军事作战能力、航空母舰和海外军事基地，则明确无误地表明中国有一天将成为超级大国。

这并不意味着中国甘愿在南中国海和东中国海与敌对势力发生冲突，从近期来看，如果它面对主要的对手，尤其是美国，它必输无疑。中国自1979年之后没有打过一场仗，而现代化的战争与越南战争的一些理念天差地别。而且，军事上的失利会导致对党存在合理性的质疑，从而动摇其长期执政的根基。

“和平发展”的理念清晰地表明，党希望中国成长为全球超级大国而不费一枪一弹，但它走的是一条危险的道路。



China's military is gearing up to compete with the U.S.

Yvonne Chiu
March 10, 2016

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/09/opinions/china-military-reform/index.html

China's military is sending strong signals that it's gearing up to compete with the U.S. as a global superpower, engaging in a multi-faceted reform effort to modernize and professionalize its military.

One of the most significant developments is China's plans to establish an overseas military base—which would be contemporary China's first—in Djibouti. Construction started last month.

There has been some speculation that China negotiated a 10-year contract, although China will not confirm details for what it carefully calls "military support facilities."

The stated purpose is to provide "better logistics and safeguard Chinese peacekeeping forces in the Gulf of Aden, offshore Somalia and other humanitarian assistance tasks of the U.N." including anti-piracy missions, according to Ministry of National Defense spokesman Wu Qian.

China's new base will be near the only U.S. military base in Africa, also in Djibouti.

It is an extremely strategic location and would offer greater ability to protect oil shipments from and give greater access to the Arabian Peninsula.

Budget cut; troops trimmed

China announced Saturday that its military budget would grow by 7.6% in 2016 -- slower than the double-digit increases in previous years --- but the real increase will likely be much higher.

Its announced 300,000 troop reduction in September at a massive military parade initially seemed to be about trimming a little deadweight, as the People's Liberation Army would still be over two-million strong, but there are recent indications that cuts will target the officer corps—including political officers.

This is part of a broader transformation program over the next two years to restructure the military.

In February, the seven military command regions were streamlined into five (north, south, east, west, central); some agencies governing armaments, logistics, personnel, and politics have been placed directly under the authority of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission.

And there are ongoing efforts to turn the PLA from a military dominated by the army to one that better integrates ground forces with the now-peripheral navy, air force, and missile (PLA Rocket Force) units, into joint command operations.

These are efforts to not only upgrade the military's efficacy but also to bring to bear more Party control over the PLA, which has been more autonomous in the past.

Weapons sales

In nearly doubling its weapons sales during this decade so far, China has become the world's third-largest weapons exporter behind the U.S. and Russia, and last month, it displayed its older J-10 fighter jet at the Singapore Airshow in order to sell it.

(Potential buyers might include Pakistan, Iran, or Syria, although this is speculative.)

Being able to sell weapons is not only a source of revenue, but also a sign of military influence and global leadership, and can help bolster political alliances.

China also acquired its first aircraft carrier by retrofitting an incomplete former-Soviet carrier, and had its first successful carrier-based fighter (J-15) landing in 2012. it is also trying to build its second carrier indigenously.

This is commonly taken as an indication that it will develop a blue-water navy (one capable of operating across open oceans), which at the time of its aircraft carrier purchase seemed less plausible, but must now be reconsidered in light of institutional restructuring to enable joint force command.

Beyond its borders

With each of these developments, China is trying to tick off the boxes for the characteristics required of a global superpower. This marks a significant historical and ideological shift.

The PLA has until recently focused on protecting China's own borders, in part because, ideologically, China has rejected activities (especially maintaining overseas military bases) that it considers fascist or imperialist.

Efforts to restore and reclaim China's rightful standing in the world also serve a domestic purpose and they have also unwittingly become one of the benchmarks for the Party's legitimacy, insofar as it is able to deliver on the nationalist flames it fans.

Taken together, do these developments belie China's claim of pursuing a "peaceful rise?" Yes and no. Clearly, China wants to compete with the U.S. and not just in the Asia-Pacific.

It has started doing so regionally by laying claim to the South China Sea and building "islands" in order to test international reactions to its attempts to extend its sovereign territory.

Future long-range capabilities that will be afforded by joint operational command, aircraft carriers, and overseas bases, however, unmistakably indicate that China intends to be a global superpower one day.

This doesn't mean that China wants a conflict in either the South or East China Seas. It would likely lose against most significant enemies in the near future, especially the U.S.

China has not fought a war since 1979, and a contemporary war would require very different practices from those used in Vietnam. In the meantime, a significant military loss would call into question the very legitimacy of the Party and have enormous consequences for its longevity.

A "peaceful rise" is clearly prudential: the Party would like China to become a global superpower without ever fighting a war, but it is walking a dangerous line.

hegieer

中国国防军工，落后美国30年，中国的军工首席专家说滴，竞赛个屁。

hegieer

没有军备竞赛，那是里根时期搞的星球大战计划，针对苏联。针对中共，美国90年代初起搞的是GDP竞赛。