经济学人：特朗普和希拉里，后者更顺！

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美国大选|《经济学人》：唐纳德·特朗普和希拉里·克林顿，后者好运！

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”，从此，让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。

本期导读：美国总统大选拖拖拉拉已持续N久，期间波折不断，搞得全世界人民的心都好乱，不过还好，结果马上就要出炉了，煎熬也就马上要到头了。11月8日马上就到，全世界人民心中的大石头很快就要落地了。

就在美国大选结果将要出炉之际，最新一期的《经济学人》来了一场“豪赌”：美国的希望，在希拉里身上，希拉里应该获胜，值得获胜，能够获胜。至于个中原因，且听《经济学人》细细道来。。。

The presidential election

美国总统大选

America’s best hope

美国的希望，在希拉里身上

Why we would cast our hypothetical vote for Hillary Clinton

为什么我们会觉得是希拉里获胜呢？

A QUARTER of Americans born since 1980 believe that democracy is a bad form of government, many more than did so 20 years ago. If the two main parties had set about designing a contest to feed the doubts of young voters, they could not have done better than this year’s presidential campaign. The vote, on November 8th, is now in sight, yet many Americans would willingly undergo the exercise all over again—with two new candidates. Of course that is not on offer: the next president will be either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

1980年后出生的美国人中，约有四分之一的人认为，民主不是一种好的治理方式，这比20年前要多很多。若要说美国两大政党总是通过互撕来让年轻一代的选民对所谓的民主越来越倒胃口的话，那么，今年的美国大选尤为显眼。11月8日，大选投票在即，美国人民又要情愿抑或不情愿地再次在两位总统候选人之间做出抉择，只不过，今年的候选人换了新面孔。当然，美国人民也别无选择，不是特朗普，就是希拉里。

1.hypothetical [,haɪpə'θetɪk(ə)l] adj. 假设的；爱猜想的

2.set about着手；开始做…

3.feed [fiːd] vt. 喂养；供给；放牧；抚养（家庭等）；靠…为生；vi. 吃东西；流入；n. 饲料；饲养；（动物或婴儿的）一餐

4.in sight在即，在望；看得见；被看到

5.on offer提供的(货物)；供出售的(商品)；[主英国英语]削价出售的(商品)

X marks the spot

大选结果，一目了然

The choice is not hard. The campaign has provided daily evidence that Mr Trump would be a terrible president. He has exploited America’s simmering racial tensions. His experience, temperament and character make him horribly unsuited to being the head of state of the nation that the rest of the democratic world looks to for leadership, the commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful armed forces and the person who controls America’s nuclear deterrent.

这次的总统大选，进行抉择并不难。竞选的整个过程中，几乎每天都在显示着，特朗普当总统，将会糟糕透顶。特朗普不仅一直在对已然紧张的种族关系煽风点火，而且他的经历、性格以及品行，都让他远远不够格成为一位国家领导人，更何况是整个民主世界的领头人、全球最强军力的总司令以及美国核武库的掌控者。

1.X marks the spot : this is the exact spot. (Sometimes the speaker will draw an X in the spot while saying this.)

2.exploit[ɪk'splɒɪt] vt. 开发，开拓；剥削；开采；n. 勋绩；功绩

3.simmering ['sɪmɚ] n. 气体漏泄时发出的叫声；激化状态，即将爆发的状态；vt. 慢煮（simmer的现在分词）；vi. 煨（simmer的现在分词）；（争吵或暴力）即将爆发

4.temperament ['temp(ə)rəm(ə)nt] n. 气质，性情，性格；急躁

5.deterrent [dɪ'ter(ə)nt] adj. 遏制的，威慑的；制止的；n. 威慑；妨碍物；挽留的事物

That alone would stop us from casting a vote, if we had one, for Mr Trump. As it happens, he has a set of policies to go with his personality. A Trump government would cut taxes for the richest while imposing trade protection that would raise prices for the poorest. We disagree with him on the environment, immigration, America’s role in the world and other things besides. His ideas on revenue and spending are an affront to statistics. We would sooner have endorsed Richard Nixon—even had we known how he would later come to grief.

不过，光有那些，还不足以让我们有充足的理由不把票投给特朗普，如果我们有投票权的话。正如特朗普在竞选中所称的，当选后他会采取系列措施，而且这些措施一看就很是符合他的个人特色。特朗普当选的话，会为富裕阶层减税，会采取贸易保护措施，而贸易保护将会导致国内商品价格上涨，而这又将会损害到穷人阶层。在环境问题、移民问题、美国在世界中的作用问题以及其他系列问题，特朗普都有问题。而且，他对政府收支的看法，也有违于最基本的常识。因而，假如特朗普的竞选对手是尼克松，我们肯定会把票立即投给尼克松，即使我们知道后来尼克松会有水门丑闻。

1.affront [ə'frʌnt] vt. 有意冒犯；面对；公开侮辱；n. 轻蔑；公开侮辱

2.endorse[ɪn'dɔːs] vt. 背书；认可；签署；赞同；在背面签名

3.come to grief: to experience something unpleasant or damaging; to end badly; to suddenly fail in what you are doing, often because you have an accident; to meet with disaster or failure

Our vote, then, goes to Hillary Clinton. Those who reject her simply because she is a Clinton, and because they detest the Clinton machine, are not paying attention to the turpitude of the alternative. Although, by itself, that is not much of an endorsement, we go further. Mrs Clinton is a better candidate than she seems and better suited to cope with the awful, broken state of Washington politics than her critics will admit. She also deserves to prevail on her own merits.

因此，我们会把票投给希拉里。其实，反对希拉里的人，只是因为他们不喜欢克林顿，不喜欢克林顿的宣传机器，而没看到特朗普所具有的潜在危害。不过，这可能也还不足以让我们把票投给希拉里，但是，还有更重要的，那就是，希拉里其实比看起来更适合当总统，也更合适来处理华盛顿那庞杂、凌乱的政治纠缠，这一点，是连希拉里的批评者都会认可的。而且，希拉里的个人经历、所具有的优点以及价值也是我们投票给她的原因之一。

1.detest [dɪ'test] vt. 厌恶；憎恨

2.turpitude ['tɜːpɪtjuːd] n. 卑鄙；奸恶

3.awful ['ɔːfʊl] adj. 可怕的；极坏的；使人敬畏的

4.prevail [prɪ'veɪl] vi. 盛行，流行；战胜，获胜

Like Mr Trump, Mrs Clinton has ideas we disagree with. Her tax plan is fiddly. Her opposition to the trade deal with Asia that she once championed is disheartening. The scale of these defects, though, is measured in tiny increments compared with what Mr Trump proposes. On plenty of other questions her policies are those of the pragmatic centre of the Democratic Party. She wants to lock up fewer non-violent offenders, expand the provision of early education and introduce paid parental leave. She wants to continue Barack Obama’s efforts to slow global warming. In Britain her ideological home would be the mainstream of the Conservative Party; in Germany she would be a Christian Democrat.

和特朗普一样，对于希拉里的有些观点，我们也是不赞同的。希拉里的税收方案，执行起来难度不是一般的高，她曾经鼎力支持自由贸易协定跨太平洋伙伴关系协议，现在却来个一百八十度大转弯开始反对，令人很是失望。不过，希拉里的这些问题，与特朗普的相比，那完全是小巫见大巫。而关于其他系列问题，希拉里的解决方案也都符合民主党一贯的务实主义风格。希拉里想降低非暴力性犯罪人员的入狱率，想加强早期教育的力度，想实施带薪产假，在气候变化问题上也还会继续奥巴马的政策。在意识形态方面，希拉里与英国的保守党和德国的基督教民主联盟一脉相通。

1.fiddly ['fɪdlɪ] adj. 需要手巧的，要求高精度的

2.increment['ɪŋkrɪm(ə)nt] n. [数] 增量；增加；增额；盈余

3.provision [prə'vɪʒ(ə)n] n. 规定；条款；准备；[经] 供应品；vt. 供给…食物及必需品

In one sense Mrs Clinton is revolutionary. She would be America’s first female president in the 240 years since independence. This is not a clinching reason to vote for her. But it would be a genuine achievement. In every other sense, however, Mrs Clinton is a self-confessed incrementalist. She believes in the power of small changes compounded over time to bring about larger ones. An inability to sound as if she is offering an overnight transformation is one of the things that makes her a bad campaigner. Presidential nominees are now expected to inspire. Mrs Clinton would have been better-suited to the first half-century of presidential campaigns, when the candidates did not even give public speeches.

从某种意义上讲，选择希拉里，会具有革命性，因为，这将使希拉里成为美国独立240年以来的第一位女性总统。尽管这点还不足以构成把票投给希拉里的决定性因素，但是，这确实将会是一种实实在在的进步。不过，在其他各方面，希拉里都是一个渐进主义者，这点她自己也是承认的。希拉里相信渐变的力量，相信滴水成河、粒米成箩。竞选活动中，希拉里没能向选民提供一种一蹴而就的解决方案，这让她的竞选显得有点失败。当今的这个世界，都期望总统候选人能激发人、鼓舞人。或许，希拉里更适合于总统竞选时代的初期阶段，因为，那时，候选人甚至连公共演讲都不用进行。

1.clinch [klɪn(t)ʃ] v. 扭住；敲弯；最终确定或解决；n. 拥吻；钉牢

2.confess [kən'fes] vt. vi. 承认；坦白；忏悔；供认

3.incrementalist 渐进主义者，增量主义者

4.inspire [ɪn'spaɪə] vt. 激发；鼓舞；启示；产生；使生灵感

However, a prosaic style combined with gradualism and hard work could make for a more successful presidency than her critics allow. In foreign policy, where the president’s power is greatest, Mrs Clinton would look out from the Resolute desk at a world that has inherited some of the risks of the cold war but not its stability. China’s rise and Russia’s decline call for both flexibility and toughness. International institutions, such as the UN, are weak; terrorism is transnational.

很显然，一位中规中矩的、务实渐进的、勤奋努力的总统，更可能成为一位比批评者所期望的更成功的总统。在美国总统最具发言权的对外政策领域，希拉里入主白宫后将会更有作为，她将要面对的世界，是一个充满冷战色彩的世界，但却是一个没有冷战期间那么稳定的世界。中国在崛起，俄罗斯在衰微，这既需要柔术，也需要硬招。诸如联合国等国际组织，作用越来越弱，而恐怖主义，正在全球蔓延。

1.prosaic [prə(ʊ)'zeɪɪk] adj. 平凡的，乏味的；散文体的

2.allow [ə'laʊ] vt. 允许；给予；认可；vi. 容许；考虑

3.Resolute desk：坚毅桌，是一张制作于十九世纪的书桌，多次被美国总统放置在白宫的椭圆形办公室中。1853年，英皇家海军帆船HMS Resolute北冰洋迷航后被美捕鲸船拯救，时任总统富兰克林·皮尔斯决定修复坚毅号以缓解僵硬的英美关系，美国国会最终通过表决并财政拨款超过40000美元来修复坚毅号，1856年12月12日，HMS Resolute（坚毅号）回到英国。HMS Resolute退役后，其船身木材被打造成坚毅桌，并在1880年由维多利亚女皇致送给美国总统海斯。坚毅桌还复制了四张，分别放在四位前总统的总统图书馆内。（摘自维基百科）

So judgment and experience are essential and, despite Republican attempts to tarnish her over an attack in Benghazi in 2012, Mrs Clinton possesses both. As a senator she did solid work on the armed-services committee; as secretary of state she pursued the president’s policies abroad ably. Her view of America has much in common with Mr Obama’s. She rightly argued for involvement early on in Syria. She has a more straightforward view of America’s capacity to do good; her former boss is more alert to the dangers of good intentions. The difference is of degree, though. Mrs Clinton helped lay the foundations for ending the embargo on Cuba, striking a nuclear deal with Iran and reaching agreement with China on global warming. A Clinton presidency would build on this.

因此，判断力和经验都是必需的，而这两者，希拉里都有，尽管共和党试图利用2012年班加西事件来攻击她。希拉里任参议员时，在军事委员会的工作做得扎扎实实，任国务卿时，把总统的对外政策执行得利利索索，对于美国在世界中的作用，她与奥巴马的看法也基本相同，在叙利亚问题上，她主张在早期就介入，对于美国为世界办好事的能力，她也更为直截了当，而奥巴马却对好事相对比较谨慎，不过，两者之间并无本质差别，仅在程度上有所不同而已。希拉里还对古巴禁运的结束、伊朗核协议的签署、中国气候变化协议的达成有过贡献，而希拉里当选的话，将会把这些工作继续进行下去。

1.tarnish ['tɑːnɪʃ]  n. 晦暗，无光泽；污点；vt. 玷污；使……失去光泽；使……变灰暗；vi. 失去光泽；被玷污；变灰暗

2.ably ['eɪblɪ] adv. 巧妙地；精明能干地

Keep America great

保持美国继续伟大

The harder question is how Mrs Clinton would govern at home. It is surely no coincidence that voters whose political consciousness dawned in the years between the attempted impeachment of Bill Clinton and the tawdriness of Mr Trump have such a low opinion of their political system. Over the past two decades political deadlock and mud-slinging have become normalised. Recent sessions of Congress have shut the government down, flirted with a sovereign default and enacted little substantive legislation. Even those conservatives inclined to mistake inaction for limited government are fed up.

希拉里成功当选的话，较为棘手的，是如何处理国内的问题。美国选民对美国政治体制越来越没有信心，这不是一种偶然，因为，从十多年前克林顿的弹劾案，到现如今特朗普对女性的骚扰，让选民对美国政治体制的评价越来越低。过去的二十年间，美国政界发生的政治僵局、互揭隐私，屡见不鲜。近来，美国国会的决定曾让美国政府成功停摆，议员们把主权债务违约当儿戏，而同期，立法成果却很寥寥。即使那些把不作为当做是对政府权力的制衡的保守议员，也开始表示已经受够了。

1.coincidence [kəʊ'ɪnsɪd(ə)ns] n. 巧合；一致；同时发生

2.dawn [dɔːn] n. 黎明；开端；vt. 破晓；出现；被领悟

3.tawdriness ['tɔ:drinis]  n. 俗丽而不值钱；庸俗

4.mud-slinging ['mʌdslɪŋɪŋ] n. 揭发隐私

5.flirt [flɜːt] vi. 调情；玩弄；轻率地对待；摆动；vt. 挥动；忽然弹出；n. 急扔；调情的人；卖弄风骚的人

The best that can be said of Mr Trump is that his candidacy is a symptom of the popular desire for a political revival. Every outrage and every broken taboo is taken as evidence that he would break the system in order that, overseen by a properly conservative Supreme Court, those who come after him might put something better in its place.

对于特朗普能成为总统候选人，最好的解释可能就是，这是民众渴望恢复政治活力的一种表现。每一声呐喊出来的愤怒，每一次对禁忌的突破，都意味着，特朗普将会打破既有的机制，以便于其跟随者能创造出一套运行更为良好的机制，当然，这一切，也逃不了具有保守色彩的最高法院的监督和审查。

1.candidacy ['kændɪdəsɪ] n. 候选资格；候选状态

2.outrage ['aʊtreɪdʒ] n. 愤怒，愤慨；暴行；侮辱；vt. 凌辱，强奸；对…施暴行；激起愤怒

3.taboo [tə'buː] n. 禁忌；禁止；adj. 禁忌的；忌讳的；vt. 禁忌；禁止

This presidential election matters more than most because of the sheer recklessness of that scheme. It draws upon the belief that the complexity of Washington is smoke and mirrors designed to bamboozle the ordinary citizen; and that the more you know, the less you can be trusted. To hope that any good can come from Mr Trump’s wrecking job reflects a narcissistic belief that compromise in politics is a dirty word and a foolhardy confidence that, after a spell of chaos and demolition, you can magically unite the nation and fix what is wrong.

今年的美国大选，与以往的相比，要重要很多，因为，特朗普所采取的竞选战略极具危险性。他试图利用人们心中的这样一种印象：华盛顿政治圈，充满欺骗与谎言，专为迷惑普通民众，而且，越是精英，也就越不值得信任。若想要从特朗普的阴损招数中获得什么有益的东西的话，那只能是一种自我幻想，亦或是一种盲目的信心，因为，在特朗普看来，进行政治妥协就是进行肮脏交易，来一通混乱、搞一场破坏后，国家会神奇般地重归团结，错误也能很容易就得到纠正。

1.sheer [ʃɪə] adj. 绝对的；透明的；峻峭的；纯粹的；adv. 完全；陡峭地；vi. 偏航；vt. 使偏航；使急转向；n. 偏航；透明薄织物

2.recklessness ['reklisnis] n. 鲁莽；轻率；不顾一切，不顾后果

3.smoke and mirrors: something which is intended to confuse or deceive people, especially by making them believe that a situation is better than it really is

4.bamboozle [bæm'buːz(ə)l] vt. 欺骗；使迷惑

5.wreck [rek] n. 破坏；失事；残骸；失去健康的人；vt. 破坏；使失事；拆毁；vi. 失事；营救失事船只

6.narcissistic [,nɑːsɪ'sɪstɪk] adj. 自恋的；自我陶醉的

7.foolhardy ['fuːlhɑːdɪ] adj. 有勇无谋的；蛮干的

8.demolition [demə'lɪʃn] n. 拆除（等于demolishment）；破坏；毁坏

If she wins, Mrs Clinton will take on the burden of refuting the would-be wreckers. In one way she is the wrong candidate for the job. The wife of a former president, who first moved into the White House almost 24 years ago, is an unlikely herald for renewal. In her long career she has at times occupied a no-man’s-land between worthy and unworthy, legal and illegal. That is why stories about the Clinton Foundation and her e-mails, which the FBI is looking at again, have been so damaging. They may barely register on the Trump-o-Meter of indiscretions but, in office, Mrs Clinton’s reputation for rule-breaking could destroy her.

若希拉里赢得大选，则将需着手应对来自特朗普阵营的反对声音。从某种角度看，希拉里不是总统的合适人选。作为约24年前首次搬入白宫的美国前总统夫人，不大可能成为进行革新的领头人。在其漫长的政治职业生涯中，希拉里很多时候也立场含混不清、观点模糊不明。这也是为什么克林顿基金会丑闻以及联邦调查局又在调查的邮件门事件对希拉里极具杀伤力的原因所在。所有这些情况，对于一根直肠通大脑的特朗普来说，几乎不会有。但是，就工作来讲，希拉里在规则遵守方面的坏名声显然是个减分项。

1.refute [rɪ'fjuːt] vt. 反驳，驳斥；驳倒

2.herald ['her(ə)ld] n. 预兆，征兆；先驱；传令官；报信者；vt. 通报；预示…的来临

3.indiscretion[ɪndɪ'skreʃ(ə)n] n. 轻率；言行失检

In another way, she is well-suited to the task. Herding bills through Congress to the point of signing requires a tolerance for patient negotiating and a command of sleep-inducing detail. Though it has been hard to hear above the demand to “lock her up”, Mrs Clinton has campaigned for an open, optimistic country. She can take heart from the fact that, outside Washington, there is more bipartisanship and problem-solving than most Americans realise, and from the fact that popular pessimism has far overshot reality. Around 80% of Trump supporters say that, for people like them, America is worse than it was 50 years ago. That is false: half a century ago 6m households lacked a flushing lavatory. It is also a most un-American way to see the world. The time is ripe for a rebound.

但是，从另外一个角度看，希拉里则非常适合担任总统之责。成堆的法案要让国会通过从而实现签署生效，这既需要耐心来进行周旋谈判，也需要耐力来对各种繁杂琐事了然于胸。尽管希拉里一直面临特朗普诸如“把希拉里打入大牢”那么难听的话，但希拉里竞选活动的主调一直都是包容开放、积极乐观。希拉里也需要看到这样的现实，并从中得到勇气和信心：在华盛顿特区之外，两党之间就解决问题进行的合作，比多数美国人所了解到的要多得多，而且，公众的悲观情绪已与现实很不相符。约有80%的特朗普支持者表示，在他们看来，现在的美国，比50年前的美国还要糟。这完全不符合现实：五十年前，美国有600万个家庭没有冲水马桶。那种论调，完全不符合美国一贯的世界观。现在，来一次复位重启的时候到了。

1.herd [hɜːd] n. 兽/畜群；放牧人；vi. 成群，聚在一起；vt. 放牧；使成群

2.take heart (from something): to receive courage or comfort from some fact.to start to feel more hopeful and more confident.

3.overshoot [əʊvə'ʃuːt] vt. 超越；打过头；把…做过头；vi. 射击越标；（飞机）滑出跑道；行动过火；n. 超越目标；行动过火

4.rebound [rɪ'baʊnd] n. 回弹；篮板球；vi. 回升；弹回；vt. 使弹回；v. 重新装订（rebind的过去式和过去分词）

In elections we have sometimes hoped for Congress and the presidency to be controlled by different parties. Some who cannot bring themselves to vote for Mr Trump but do not care for Mrs Clinton either will opt for that choice. Yet the loss of Congress would increase the chances of a Republican Party reformation that both the party and the United States need.

进行投票时，人们有时会考虑到，国会和总统应该由不同的党派来掌控。而对于那些既不想投票给特朗普又不想投票给希拉里的选民来说，则更会这样考虑投出自己的那一票。不过，若民主党失去国会的控制权，则将提高共和党进行革新改进的可能性，而革新改进也正是该党以及美国都需要进行的。

1.reformation [refə'meɪʃ(ə)n] n. 革新；改善

Hence our vote goes to both Mrs Clinton and her party. Partly because she is not Mr Trump, but also in the hope she can show that ordinary politics works for ordinary people—the sort of renewal that American democracy requires.

因此，我们会把票投给希拉里以及希拉里的民主党。部分原因在于，希拉里与特朗普不同，同时也是希望，希拉里能给人们带来政治新气象：人民政治为人民——这也正是美国民主体制所需要的革新复兴之所在。

往期精彩：

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美国大选|《经济学人》：希拉里打开了心扉、搬来了上帝、展现了柔情、加紧了布局

民主VS民粹|《全球脑库》：民粹主义的本质，在于它的反民主性

世界楷模|《经济学人》：自由女神，抛弃了美国，北上了加拿大

他山之石|《经济学人》：美国住房市场隐忧阴魂仍未散

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