经济学人：特朗普时代，美国和世界将如何幻变？

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美国的新总统|《经济学人》：特朗普时代，美国会如何变、世界将如何换？

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”，从此，让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。  

本期导读：特朗普成功当选美国新一届总统，有人欢乐、有人愁。欢乐者之所以欢乐，是因为特朗普符合自己的利益，抑或至少是符合自己的心意。而发愁者之所以发愁，也主要是愁自己的利益将可能会受损，心情也因而随之变糟。

太史公司马迁两千多年前在《史记·货殖列传》中就表示过，“天下熙熙，皆为利来；天下壤壤，皆为利往”。到了二十一世纪的今天，这句话依然放之四海而皆准。不管是欢乐者，抑或是发愁者，皆不外是因利而欢，或因利而愁。

最近，作为自由主义、精英主义重镇之一的《经济学人》，也因特朗普将要入主白宫而闷闷不乐。新一期的杂志中，《经济学人》推出系列文章，字里行间一如既往地充斥着对特朗普的蔑视与批判。

下面，让我们一起来看看在《经济学人》眼里，特朗普时代的美国和世界，将会是一个什么样的美国以及什么样的世界。。。

                                                                            11:24                      America's New President             来自我与我们的世界                        

America’s new president

美国的新总统

The Trump era

特朗普时代

His victory threatens old certainties about America and its role in the world. What will take their place?

特朗普的胜选，既是对美国政治制度的一种挑战，也是对整个世界体系的一种威胁。以往美国及其在世界中的角色所具有的那种确定性、稳定性，将会一去不复返，随之而来的，将会是什么呢？

THE fall of the Berlin Wall, on November 9th 1989, was when history was said to have ended. The fight between communism and capitalism was over. After a titanic ideological struggle encompassing the decades after the second world war, open markets and Western liberal democracy reigned supreme. In the early morning of November 9th 2016, when Donald Trump crossed the threshold of 270 electoral-college votes to become America’s president-elect, that illusion was shattered. History is back—with a vengeance.

1989年11月9日，柏林墙轰然倒塌，那一刻，人们都说，历史已经终结。共产主义与资本主义之间的斗争，也成为了过去。二战后的几十年里，意识形态斗争一直是时代的主旋律，最终，西方的市场经济与自由民主宣告获胜。2016年11月9日一大早，特朗普越过270张选举人票门槛当选美国新一届总统的那一刻，那种历史终结的幻想，随即灰飞烟灭。历史发生轮回，而且是一次彻彻底底的轮回。

1.titanic [taɪ'tænɪk] adj. 巨大的；四价钛的；n. 泰坦尼克号

2.encompass [ɪn'kʌmpəs] vt. 包含；包围，环绕；完成

3.reign[reɪn] vi. 统治；支配；盛行；君临；n. 统治；统治时期；支配

4.supreme [suː'priːm] adj. 最高的；至高的；最重要的；n. 至高；霸权

The fact of Mr Trump’s victory and the way it came about are hammer blows both to the norms that underpin politics in the United States and also to America’s role as the world’s pre-eminent power. At home, an apparently amateurish and chaotic campaign has humiliated an industry of consultants, pundits and pollsters. If, as he has threatened, President Trump goes on to test the institutions that regulate political life, nobody can be sure how they will bear up. Abroad, he has taken aim at the belief, embraced by every post-war president, that America gains from the often thankless task of being the global hegemon. If Mr Trump now disengages from the world, who knows what will storm through the breach?

特朗普的胜选以及一路走来发生的点点滴滴，既是对美国政治传统规范的一种当头棒喝，也是对美国雄霸世界老大地位的一次沉重打击。从国内政治规范角度来说，特朗普那明显既不符合专业水准又杂乱无章的竞选活动，简直就是对竞选顾问、专家智囊以及民测行家的一种羞辱。正如特朗普曾威胁所称，若他真的在就职总统后对规范美国政治生活的制度提出挑战的话，那么没人知道那些制度到时能否经受得住他的那种挑战。从对外战略角度来看，特朗普已开始把矛头对准战后所有美国总统都深深认同的那种观点：美国作为全球霸权所干的事儿，尽管经常吃力不讨好，但却能从中受益。若特朗普真的让美国从世界中抽身而去，没谁会知道，哪种势力将会填补美国留下的权力真空。

1.pre-eminent [prɪ'emɪnənt] adj. 卓越的；超群的

2.amateurish ['æmətərɪʃ] adj. 业余的；不熟练的；外行的

3.pundit['pʌndɪt] n. 专家；博学者；梵文学者

4.pollster['pəʊlstə] n. 民意测验专家，民意调查人；整理民意测验结果的人

5.institution[ɪnstɪ'tjuːʃ(ə)n] n. 制度；建立；（社会或宗教等）公共机构；习俗

6.bear up使振作；不气馁；驶向下风；打起精神

The sense that old certainties are crumbling has rocked America’s allies. The fear that globalisation has fallen flat has whipsawed markets. Although post-Brexit Britons know what that feels like, the referendum in Britain will be eclipsed by consequences of this election. Mr Trump’s victory has demolished a consensus. The question now is what takes its place.

当下，有一种感觉正在弥漫，以往美国给世界所带来的那种确定性正在变得支离破碎，这让美国的同盟伙伴们开始感到惴惴不安。同时，有一种忧虑也在扩散，全球化事业恐怕也已告吹，这也让全球市场感到风声鹤唳。决定脱欧后，英国民众对不确定性所具有的杀伤力，已有切身体会，但与美国这次大选相比，英国的脱欧公投，完全是小巫见大巫。特朗普的胜选，已让曾经形成的共识土崩瓦解。当前的问题是，替代那个共识的，将会是个什么东东？

1.crumble ['krʌmb(ə)l] vi. 崩溃；破碎，粉碎；vt. 崩溃；弄碎，粉碎；n. 面包屑

2.fall flat失败；达不到预想效果

3.whipsaw['wɪpsɔː] vt. 锯开；使受双重损失；n. [木] 双人横切锯；双重不利的事物；狭边粗木锯；vi. 反覆弯折；利用一方打击另一方

Trump towers

特朗普冉冉雄起

Start with the observation that America has voted not for a change of party so much as a change of regime. Mr Trump was carried to office on a tide of popular rage. This is powered partly by the fact that ordinary Americans have not shared in their country’s prosperity. In real terms median male earnings are still lower than they were in the 1970s. In the past 50 years, barring the expansion of the 1990s, middle-ranking households have taken longer to claw back lost income with each recession. Social mobility is too low to hold out the promise of something better. The resulting loss of self-respect is not neutralised by a few quarters of rising wages.

姑且让我们先假设，美国的这次大选，是一次政党轮替，而非一场制度变革。很显然，特朗普能够登上总统宝座，汹涌的民愤功不可没。民之所以愤，部分原因在于，普通的美国民众，没能从国家的经济发展中受益。按可比价格计算，当前美国男性的收入中位水平，甚至比1970年代的还要低。过去的50年间，美国的中产家庭规模仅在1990年代有所扩大，而每次经济危机之后，美国中产家庭想要恢复到危机前收入水平，所需花费的时间都变得越来越长。还有，社会流动性也几乎停滞，这让普通民众对未来失去了信心。也因此，人们感受不到活着的尊严所在，偶尔几个季度里工资水平上升，已不足以让人们重拾信心。

1.tower['taʊə] n. 塔；高楼；堡垒；vi. 高耸；超越 （特朗普有很多大厦以其名字命名）

2.median ['miːdɪən] n. 中值，中位数；三角形中线；梯形中位线；adj. 中值的；中央的

Anger has sown hatred in America. Feeling themselves victims of an unfair economic system, ordinary Americans blame the elites in Washington for being too spineless and too stupid to stand up to foreigners and big business; or, worse, they believe that the elites themselves are part of the conspiracy. They repudiate the media—including this newspaper—for being patronising, partisan and as out of touch and elitist as the politicians. Many working-class white voters feel threatened by economic and demographic decline. Some of them think racial minorities are bought off by the Democratic machine. Rural Americans detest the socially liberal values that urban compatriots foist upon them by supposedly manipulating the machinery in Washington. Republicans have behaved as if working with Democrats is treachery.

民愤导致仇恨。美国普通民众认为，当前的经济体系是不公平的，自己则是这个不公平的经济体系的受害者，因而就把愤泄在了美国政治精英的身上，怪他们没骨气、没挺直腰杆对外国竞争者说不，怨他们没脑袋、表现麻木不仁对大公司的所作所为睁一只眼闭一只眼。甚至有些美国民众认为，美国的政治精英他们自己本身，就是整个经济阴谋体系的一部分。美国民众也对媒体（包括我们《经济学人》）嗤之以鼻，说媒体总摆着一副高人一等的姿态，总偏袒着特定的圈子阶层，和那些政客们一路货色，一样脱离群众、一样精英。由于收入水平下降、人口数量降低，很多工薪阶层白人选民也感受到了威胁。很多白人选民认为，少数族裔选民已被民主党所收买。美国的乡下选民，对城里人通过政治操纵强加于美国社会的自由价值观念，也深恶痛绝。共和党阵营的言行举止，给人一种感觉，与民主党站在一起，就是一种背叛。

1.spineless ['spaɪnlɪs] adj. 没有骨气的；无脊椎的；懦弱的

2.repudiate [rɪ'pjuːdɪeɪt] vt. 拒绝；否定；批判；与…断绝关系；拒付

3.patronise [ˈpætrəˌnaɪz] vt. 以高人一等的态度对待；经常光顾，惠顾；资助；保护

4.partisan ['pɑːtɪzæn] adj. 党派的；效忠的；偏袒的；盲目推崇的；n. 游击队；虔诚信徒；党羽

5.foist [fɒɪst] vt. 偷偷插入；混入；蒙骗；硬卖给；采用欺骗手段出售；把…强加于

6.treachery ['tretʃ(ə)rɪ] n. 背叛；变节；背叛行为

Mr Trump harnessed this popular anger brilliantly. Those who could not bring themselves to vote for him may wonder how half of their compatriots were willing to overlook his treatment of women, his pandering to xenophobes and his rank disregard for the facts. There is no reason to conclude that all Trump voters approve of his behaviour. For some of them, his flaws are insignificant next to the One Big Truth: that America needs fixing. For others the willingness to break taboos was proof that he is an outsider. As commentators have put it, his voters took Mr Trump seriously but not literally, even as his critics took him literally but not seriously. The hapless Hillary Clinton might have won the popular vote, but she stood for everything angry voters despise.

特朗普这次对美国民众的愤怒情绪，玩儿得可以说游刃有余。最终没把票投给特朗普的选民可能会纳闷，特朗普严重骚扰异性、极度煽动仇外、随意歪曲事实，近一半的美国选民怎能对此熟视无睹，竟然把票投给他。当然，若说把票投给特朗普的所有选民都认可特朗普的言行举止，则是站不住脚的。对于很多把票投给特朗普的选民来说，与“美国急需来一场大休整”这样的严峻现实相比，特朗普的所有缺点也就不值一提了。对于其他有些选民来说，通过把票投给特朗普，能展现出自己对打破禁忌的那种坚定意志，而这只不过仅能证明，自己已对未来不抱什么希望罢了。正如有些评论人士所说，把票投给特朗普的选民，看中的是他这个人，而非他的言谈，而批评特朗普的人则刚好相反，瞄上的是他的言谈，而非他这个人。倒霉的希拉里，很有希望赢得大选，但她所代表的一切，却都是满腔怒火的民众所不待见的。

1.harness ['hɑːnɪs] vt. 治理；套；驾驭；披上甲胄；利用；n. 马具；甲胄；挽具状带子；降落伞背带；日常工作

2.brilliantly ['briljəntli] adv. 灿烂地；辉煌地；光亮地

3.pander ['pændə] vi. 迎合；勾引；怂恿；拉皮条；n. 怂恿者；拉皮条者；老鸨；vt. 为…拉皮条

4.xenophobe['zɛnəfob] n. 仇外；害怕生人者；畏惧和憎恨外国人的人

5.rank [ræŋk] n. 排；等级；军衔；队列；adj. 讨厌的；恶臭的；繁茂的；vt. 排列；把…分等；vi. 列为；列队

6.outsider [aʊt'saɪdə] n. 外人；无取胜希望者

The hope is that this election will prove cathartic. Perhaps, in office, Mr Trump will be pragmatic and magnanimous—as he was in his acceptance speech. Perhaps he will be King Donald, a figurehead and tweeter-in-chief who presides over an executive vice-president and a cabinet of competent, reasonable people. When he decides against building a wall against Mexico after all or concludes that a trade war with China is not a wise idea, his voters may not mind too much—because they only expected him to make them feel proud and to put conservative justices in the Supreme Court. Indeed, you can just about imagine a future in which extra infrastructure spending, combined with deregulation, tax cuts, a stronger dollar and the repatriation of corporate profits, boosts the American economy for long enough to pacify the anger. This more emollient Trump might even model himself on Ronald Reagan, a conservative hero who was mocked and underestimated, too.

我们希望，通过这次选举，美国民众的怒火已得到宣泄。或许，上台之后，特朗普将会变得务实、变得有雅量，正如他在接受共和党总统候选人提名时所表现的那样。也或许，特朗普将成为一位头戴“王冠”的虚名总统，一位只在其位不谋其职的总统，一位只起传话筒作用的总统，而实际的总统职能，则可由其名下的副总统以及有能力、有理智的内阁成员予以具体执行。即使到时特朗普决定不再修建美墨边境隔离墙，或认识到与中国开打贸易战不是个好主意，投票给他的选民也可能不会太在意，因为，选民们把票投给特朗普，只是为了让自己获得一种存在感，只是为了让保守主义的法官来填补联邦最高法院的那个大法官职缺。完全可以想象，在可见的将来，基础设施投资会增加，政府管制会放松，税率会降低，美元更坚挺，美国公司利润回流，美国经济得到重振，民愤也得到消解。这种情况下，锋芒不再那么毕露的特朗普，或许会以里根为榜样，当时里根作为保守阵营的英雄被推上美国总统宝座时，也遭人嘲弄、也被人看低。

1.cathartic [kə'θɑːtɪk] adj. 导泻的；通便的；n. [药] 泻药；[药] 通便药

2.magnanimous [mæg'nænɪməs]  adj. 宽宏大量的；有雅量的；宽大的

3.acceptance speech (总统候选人)接受政党提名演讲

4.figurehead ['fɪgəhed] n. 破浪神；有名无实的领袖；装饰船头的人像

5.tweeter ['twiːtə] n. 高音用扩音器；[电讯] 高频扬声器

6.emollient [ɪ'mɒlɪənt] n. [药] 润肤剂；软化剂；adj. 使柔软的

Nothing would make us happier than to see Mr Trump succeed in this way. But whereas Reagan was an optimist, Mr Trump rails against the loss of an imagined past. We are deeply sceptical that he will make a good president—because of his policies, his temperament and the demands of political office.

若特朗普真能沿着这个方向一路走下去，我们将会为之无比感动。不过，里根是一位乐观主义者，而特朗普却总是在抱怨，总后悔自己没能做得更好。特朗普说，他能成为一位优秀的总统，我们对此深感怀疑，主要是因为考虑到他那不着调的政策措施、他那急躁鲁莽的性格以及当好美国总统所需必备的能力。

1.rail[reɪl] n. 铁轨；扶手；横杆；围栏；vi. 抱怨；责骂；vt. 铺铁轨；以横木围栏

2.sceptical ['skeptɪk(ə)l] adj. 怀疑的；怀疑论的；习惯怀疑的

3.temperament ['temp(ə)rəm(ə)nt] n. 气质，性情，性格；急躁

Gravity wins in the end

最终，我们还是忧虑重重

Take his policies first. After the sugar rush, populist policies eventually collapse under their own contradictions. Mr Trump has pledged to scrap the hated Obamacare. But that threatens to deprive over 20m hard-up Americans of health insurance. His tax cuts would chiefly benefit the rich and they would be financed by deficits that would increase debt-to-GDP by 25 percentage points by 2026. Even if he does not actually deport illegal immigrants, he will foment the divisive politics of race. Mr Trump has demanded trade concessions from China, Mexico and Canada on threat of tariffs and the scrapping of the North American Free Trade Agreement. His protectionism would further impoverish poor Americans, who gain more as consumers from cheap imports than they would as producers from suppressed competition. If he caused a trade war, the fragile global economy could tip into a recession. With interest rates near zero, policymakers would struggle to respond.

首先，来看他那不着调的政策措施。民粹主义政策，尽管刚开始会有一定效果、能让人爽一阵子，但因其自身所具有的固有矛盾，最终总会搞得一塌涂地。特朗普已发誓，要废止奥巴马那令人讨厌的医改方案，但这将威胁到2000万美国穷人的健康保险权益。特朗普的降税政策，首先从中受益的是富人，而因税率降低导致的财政赤字，到2026年会使政府债务占GDP的比重提高25个百分点。即使特朗普不把非法移民驱逐出境，他也仍会给极具争议的种族问题继续煽风点火。特朗普也要求中国、墨西哥以及加拿大在贸易问题上做出让步，并威胁要提高关税，要解散北美自贸协议。这种保护主义贸易政策，会让美国穷人更穷，因为，美国穷人作为消费者从廉价进口商品中所获得的利益，要远远高于作为非充分竞争环境中的生产者所获得的利益。若特朗普开打贸易战，脆弱的全球经济将会陷入衰退。目前利率水平几乎为零，留给决策者们的政策选择，已不太多。

1.gravity ['grævɪtɪ] n. 重力，地心引力；严重性；庄严

2.sugar rush: there are those who believe Diet Coke addiction is psychological; others who believe it's related to the aspartame, which causes the brain to demand more to try to replicate the sugar rush. 有人认为健怡可乐上瘾症是心理原因造成的，也有人认为与阿斯巴甜有关，阿斯巴甜使人需要更多的健怡可乐来使大脑重复感受甜味所带来的刺激。

3.hard-up [,ha:d'ʌp] adj. 缺钱，手头紧

Abroad Mr Trump says he hates the deal freezing Iran’s nuclear programme. If it fails, he would have to choose between attacking Iran’s nuclear sites and seeing nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. He wants to reverse the Paris agreement on climate change; apart from harming the planet, that would undermine America as a negotiating partner. Above all, he would erode America’s alliances—its greatest strength. Mr Trump has demanded that other countries pay more towards their security or he will walk away. His bargaining would weaken NATO, leaving front-line eastern European states vulnerable to Russia. It would encourage Chinese expansion in the South China Sea. Japan and South Korea may be tempted to arm themselves with nuclear weapons.

对外政策方面，特朗普对伊核问题协议表示反对，若该协议最终破产，那么，特朗普就不得不做出抉择，要么攻打伊朗核设施，要么眼睁睁看着核武在中东遍地开花。特朗普也想取消已经生效的巴黎气候变化协议，若真的取消了，不仅会对我们共同的地球这个家园带来危害，而且也将会有损美国在国际谈判中的声誉。尤其是，特朗普还可能会动摇美国最重要的力量源泉——美国的全球同盟体系。特朗普已提出要求，同盟伙伴应该对自己的安全防卫承担更多，否则，美国将会撒手不管。特朗普的这种论调，将会削弱北约，让身处前线的东欧成员国，更容易遭受俄罗斯的欺凌，同时，这也是对中国在南海扩张的一种变相鼓励，而日韩则可能受到刺激，转而开发核武来保护自己。

1.reverse [rɪ'vɜːs] n. 背面；相反；倒退；失败；vt. 颠倒；倒转；adj. 反面的；颠倒的；反身的；vi. 倒退；逆叫

2.tempted ['temptid] adj. 有兴趣的；v. 诱惑；冒…的险（tempt的过去分词）

The second reason to be wary is temperament. During the campaign Mr Trump was narcissistic, thin-skinned and ill-disciplined. Yet the job of the most powerful man in the world constantly entails daily humiliations at home and abroad. When congressmen mock him, insult him and twist his words, his effectiveness will depend on his willingness to turn the other cheek and work for a deal. When a judge hears a case for fraud against Trump University in the coming weeks, or rules against his administration’s policies when he is in office, he must stand back (self-restraint that proved beyond him when he was a candidate). When journalists ridiculed him in the campaign he threatened to open up libel laws. In office he must ignore them or try to talk them round. When sovereign governments snub him he must calculate his response according to America’s interests, not his own wounded pride. If Mr Trump fails to master his resentments, his presidency will soon become bogged down in a morass of petty conflicts.

其次，来看他那鲁莽急躁的性格。竞选过程中，特朗普的表现非常自恋、极度敏感、毫无章法。不过，美国总统这个职位，尽管掌控着世界上最大的权力，但不管是在国内还是在国外，每天都会遭受这样或那样的嘲笑甚至凌辱。国会议员会嘲笑总统，会辱骂总统，会曲解总统。而总统职责能否行使好，则主要取决于，担任总统的人有没有容忍的雅量、能不能获得议员们的合作。将来，当法官要审理“特朗普大学”的诈骗案时，抑或法官就特朗普在职期间出台的政策措施进行审理时，特朗普则必须克制自己，不能介入。自我克制，貌似已超出特朗普的能力范围，这已由其作为总统候选人期间的表现得到证明。当时在竞选活动现场有记者嘲笑特朗普时，特朗普立马威胁要控告那位记者诽谤。而当了总统，特朗普就必须对这些鸡零狗碎的琐事视若无睹，或继续回归正题说服对方。遭到其他主权国家的冷言冷语时，特朗普则必须根据美国的国家利益，而非依照自己颜面的受损感觉，来进行权衡予以回应。特朗普若不能管控好自己的暴躁秉性，上任总统后，将会立马深陷鸡毛蒜皮的围困，难以脱身。

1.wary ['weərɪ] adj. 谨慎的；机警的；惟恐的；考虑周到的

2.narcissistic [,nɑːsɪ'sɪstɪk] adj. 自恋的；自我陶醉的

3.thin-skinned ['θin'skind] adj. quick to take offense敏感的；皮薄的；脸皮薄的

4.turn the other cheek宽容大度； 表示“受到猛烈攻击而不还手”； 忍受暴力； 容忍

5.talk someone round: to persuade someone to agree with you or to do what you want them to do; bring someone to a particular point of view by talking

The third reason to be wary is the demands of office. No problem comes to the president unless it is fiendishly complicated. Yet Mr Trump has shown no evidence that he has the mastery of detail or sustained concentration that the Oval Office demands. He could delegate (as Reagan famously did), but his campaign team depended to an unusual degree on his family and on political misfits. He has thrived on the idea that his experience in business will make him a master negotiator in politics. Yet if a deal falls apart there is always another skyscraper to buy or another golf course to build; by contrast, a failure to agree with Vladimir Putin about Russia’s actions leaves nobody to turn to. Nowhere will judgment and experience be more exposed than over the control of America’s nuclear arsenal—which, in a crisis, falls to him and him alone.

最后，来看当好美国总统所需必备的能力。需要美国总统解决的问题，都是复杂的不能再复杂的问题。但是，到目前为止，特朗普也没显现出，他具有美国总统所需具备的那种细致入微、专心致志的能力。当然，特朗普也可以像里根那样，把问题委任他人，但特朗普的竞选团队，靠的几乎全是他的家人，以及一些政治门外汉。特朗普一直对自己信心满满，认为自己在商界的谈判经验，也能让他在政界成为谈判大师。不过，在商界，若某项大楼或地皮买卖没能达成，总能找到另一座大楼作为收购标的，或购买另一块地皮来建高尔夫球场。但若在政界，比如若想要就俄罗斯的某些行动达成交易，除了与普京进行交涉，你别无选择。对政治判断力、政治经验的要求，没有什么比掌控美国核武库所需具备的要求更高的了，危机发生时，是否动用核武，决定权就完全落在了美国总统的身上，而且完全落在美国总统一人的身上。

1.office: a job in an organization; the actions and activities assigned to or required or expected of a person or group

2.fiendishly ['findɪʃli] adv. 极坏地；不平凡；不简单；恶魔似地

3.misfit['mɪsfɪt] n. 不适合；不适应环境的人；vt. 对…不适合

The pendulum swings out

事态有点失控

The genius of America’s constitution is to limit the harm one president can do. We hope Mr Trump proves our doubts groundless or that, if he fails, a better president will be along in four years. The danger with popular anger, though, is that disillusion with Mr Trump will only add to the discontent that put him there in the first place. If so, his failure would pave the way for someone even more bent on breaking the system.

美国宪法的精妙之处在于，可把总统所能具有的危害，限制在一定限度之内。我们希望，特朗普上台后的所作所为，能证明我们的担心疑虑是没有根据的，抑或，若我们的担心疑虑变成现实，那么四年后就会有新的总统上位。不过，民愤依然是危险的，因为，民众对特朗普的幻想破灭之后，只会让业已愤怒的民众更加愤怒。若真是这样，走了一个特朗普，还可能会迎来另一个比特朗普更特朗普的特朗普。

1.pendulum ['pendjʊləm] n. 钟摆；摇锤；摇摆不定的事态

2.swing out: make a big sweeping gesture or movement

3.genius ['dʒiːnɪəs] n. 天才，天赋；精神

4.be along: 来到，到达；到场；拜访

5.disillusion [,dɪsɪ'l(j)uːʒ(ə)n] vt. 使醒悟；使不再抱幻想；n. 幻灭；醒悟

6.bent [bent] n. 爱好，嗜好；adj. 弯曲的；决心的

The election of Mr Trump is a rebuff to all liberals, including this newspaper. The open markets and classically liberal democracy that we defend, and which had seemed to be affirmed in 1989, have been rejected by the electorate first in Britain and now in America. France, Italy and other European countries may well follow. It is clear that popular support for the Western order depended more on rapid growth and the galvanising effect of the Soviet threat than on intellectual conviction. Recently Western democracies have done too little to spread the benefits of prosperity. Politicians and pundits took the acquiescence of the disillusioned for granted. As Mr Trump prepares to enter the White House, the long, hard job of winning the argument for liberal internationalism begins anew.

特朗普成功当选，是对所有自由主义的支持者、拥护者的一记响亮耳光，包括我们《经济学人》。我们所提倡维护的市场经济和自由民主，貌似早在1989年就已牢靠永固，但到现在，前有英国脱欧公投对其进行了否定，后有美国大选对其进行了否决。法国、意大利以及其他欧洲国家，很可能会紧随其后。很显然，民众对西方秩序的支持，更多的是取决于经济增长以及曾经来自苏联的那种威胁，而非取决于对智识的坚定信仰。近年来，西方民主国家所取得的经济发展，没能惠及普罗大众。在政治精英和专家学者眼里，亿万民众梦想破灭后沉默认命，是很自然而然、理所当然的。随着特朗普即将入主白宫，对自由主义进行鼓与呼的征程，又将重新开启，前路漫漫，且注定修远。

1.rebuff [rɪ'bʌf] n. 断然拒绝；回绝；漠不关心；vt. 断然拒绝

2.affirm[ə'fɜːm] vt. 肯定；断言；vi. 确认；断言

3.electorate [ɪ'lekt(ə)rət] n. 选民；选区

4.galvanising adj. affected by emotion as if by electricity; thrilling

5.intellectual [,ɪntə'lektʃʊəl; -tjʊəl] adj. 智力的；聪明的；理智的；n. 知识分子；凭理智做事者

6.conviction [kən'vɪkʃ(ə)n] n. 定罪；确信；证明有罪；确信，坚定的信仰

7.acquiescence [,ækwɪ'esns] n. 默许；默从；默认

往期精彩：

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世界楷模|《经济学人》：自由女神，抛弃了美国，北上了加拿大

中国式神话|《儒家神话》：神话，在传说中，在古籍里，也在你我身边

云之颂|《仰望云天》：不管风云如何变幻，皆自有妙景

穷VS富|《全球脑库》：波涛汹涌的民粹主义潮流，是一场正在进行的新的阶级斗争

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