[08.07.24经济学人] 不幸福的美国

瑰意绮行

【原文标题】 Unhappy America From:Anti-CNN求实交流论坛bbs.m4.cn
【中文标题】不幸福的美国
【登载媒体】 经济学人
【翻译】瑰意绮行
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11791539 From:Anti-CNN求实交流论坛bbs.m4.cn
【声明】 本译文仅供本网站使用,谢绝转载 From:Anti-CNN求实交流论坛bbs.m4.cn


【原文】

Unhappy America

If America can learn from its problems, instead of blaming others, it will come back stronger
NATIONS, like people, occasionally get the blues; and right now theUnited States, normally the world’s most self-confident place, is glum.Eight out of ten Americans think their country is heading in the wrongdirection. The hapless George Bush is partly to blame for this: hisapproval ratings are now sub-Nixonian. But many are concerned not somuch about a failed president as about a flailing nation.

One source of angst is the sorry state of American capitalism (see article).The “Washington consensus” told the world that open markets andderegulation would solve its problems. Yet American house prices arefalling faster than during the Depression, petrol is more expensivethan in the 1970s, banks are collapsing, the euro is kicking sand inthe dollar’s face, credit is scarce, recession and inflation boththreaten the economy, consumer confidence is an oxymoron and Belgianshave just bought Budweiser, “America’s beer”.
      
And it’s not just the downturn that has caused this discontent.Many Americans feel as if they missed the boom. Between 2002 and 2006the incomes of 99% rose by an average of 1% a year in real terms, whilethose of the top 1% rose by 11% a year; three-quarters of the economicgains during Mr Bush’s presidency went to that top 1%. Economic envy,once seen as a European vice, is now rife. The rich appear in BarackObama’s speeches not as entrepreneurial role models but as modernversions of the “malefactors of great wealth” denounced by TeddyRoosevelt a century ago: this lot, rather than building trusts, avoidtaxes and ship jobs to Mexico. Globalisation is under fire: free tradeis less popular in the United States than in any other developedcountry, and a nation built on immigrants is building a fence to keepthem out. People mutter about nation-building beginning at home: why,many wonder, should American children do worse at reading than Polishones and at maths than Lithuanians?

The dragon’s breath on your shoulderAbroad, America has spent vast amounts of blood and treasure, tolittle purpose. In Iraq, finding an acceptable exit will look likesuccess; Afghanistan is slipping. America’s claim to be a beacon offreedom in a dark world has been dimmed by Guantánamo, Abu Ghraib andthe flouting of the Geneva Conventions amid the panicky “unipolar”posturing in the aftermath of September 11th.

Now the world seems very multipolar. Europeans no longer worry aboutAmerican ascendancy. The French, some say, understood the Arab worldrather better than the neoconservatives did. Russia, the Gulf Arabs andthe rising powers of Asia scoff openly at the Washington consensus.China in particular spooks America—and may do so even more over thenext few weeks of Olympic medal-gathering. Americans are discussing therise of China and their consequent relative decline; measuring whenChina’s economy will be bigger and counting its missiles and submarineshas become a popular pastime in Washington. A few years ago, nopolitician would have been seen with a book called “The Post-AmericanWorld”. Mr Obama has been conspicuously reading Fareed Zakaria’s recentvolume.

America has got into funks before now. In the 1950s it went into a Sputnik-drivenspin about Soviet power; in the 1970s there was Watergate, Vietnam andthe oil shocks; in the late 1980s Japan seemed to be buying up America.Each time, the United States rebounded, because the country is good atfixing itself. Just as American capitalism allows companies to die, andto be created, quickly, so its political system reacts fast. In Europe,political leaders emerge slowly, through party hierarchies; in America,the primaries permit inspirational unknowns to burst into the publicconsciousness from nowhere.

Still, countries, like people, behave dangerously when their moodturns dark. If America fails to distinguish between what it needs tochange and what it needs to accept, it risks hurting not just alliesand trading partners, but also itself.

The Asian scapegoat

There are certainly areas where change is needed. The credit crunchis in part the consequence of a flawed regulatory system. Lax monetarypolicy allowed Americans to build up debts and fuelled a housing bubblethat had to burst eventually. Lessons need to be learnt from both ofthose mistakes; as they do from widespread concerns about the state ofeducation and health care. Over-unionised and unaccountable, America’sschool system needs the same sort of competition that makes itsuniversities the envy of the world. American health care, which managesto be the most expensive on the planet even though it fails properly tocare for the tens of millions of people, badly needs reform.
There have been plenty of mistakes abroad, too. Waging a war onterror was always going to be like pinning jelly to a wall. As forGuantánamo Bay, it is the most profoundly un-American place on theplanet: rejoice when it is shut.

In such areas America is already showing its genius for reinvention.Both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates promise toclose Guantánamo. As his second term ticks down, even Mr Bush has begunto see the limits of unilateralism. Instead of just denouncing andthreatening the “axis of evil” he is working more closely with allies(and non-allies) in Asia to calm down North Korea. For the first timehe has just let American officials join in the negotiations with Iranabout its fishy nuclear programme (see article).

That America is beginning to correct its mistakes is good; andthere’s plenty more of that to be done. But one source of angst demandsa change in attitude rather than a drive to restore the status quo:America’s relative decline, especially compared with Asia in generaland China in particular.

The economic gap between America and a rising Asia has certainlynarrowed; but worrying about it is wrong for two reasons. First, evenat its present growth rate, China’s GDP will take a quarter of acentury to catch up with America’s; and the internal tensions thatChina’s rapidly changing economy has caused may well lead it to stumblebefore then. Second, even if Asia’s rise continues unabated, it iswrong—and profoundly unAmerican—to regard this as a problem. Economicgrowth, like trade, is not a zero-sum game. The faster China and Indiagrow, the more American goods they buy. And they are booming largelybecause they have adopted America’s ideas. America should regard theirsuccess as a tribute, not a threat, and celebrate in it.

Many Americans, unfortunately, are unwilling to do so. Politiciansseeking a scapegoat for America’s self-made problems too often pointthe finger at the growing power of once-poor countries, accusing themof stealing American jobs and objecting when they try to buy Americancompanies. But if America reacts by turning in on itself—raising tradebarriers and rejecting foreign investors—it risks exACerbating theeconomic troubles that lie behind its current funk.

Everybody goes through bad times. Some learn from the problems theyhave caused themselves, and come back stronger. Some blame others, lashout and damage themselves further. America has had the wisdom to takethe first course many times before. Let’s hope it does so again.
                                                  
【译文】

不幸福的美国

如果美国能够从自身的问题中汲取教训，而不是责备他人，就会变得更为强大。

国家，就像人一样，时常也陷入忧郁；而原本是世界上最自信的国家的美国，如今也陷入消沉。80%的美国人认为他们的国家正向一个错误的方向发展。倒霉的小布什也对此部分地受到责备：他现在的支持率已不如尼克松。但是对许多人来说，与其更加关心一个失败的总统，不如更加关心一个动荡的国家。

焦虑的一个来源是美国资本主义的可怜境地。“华盛顿共识”告诉世界开放市场以及放松管制会解决问题。但是，美国房价正以比大萧条时期更快的速度下滑，石油比20世纪70年代更加昂贵，银行在倒闭，欧元在美元面前飞扬跋扈，信用缺失，衰退和通胀都威胁着经济。比利时刚收购了被称为“美国的啤酒”的百威啤酒，这与消费者信心形成一种矛盾。

不满并不仅仅是由这种低迷引起的。许多美国人感觉他们好像失去了繁荣。在2002年到2006年间，99%的人真实收入（经过通货膨胀指数——CPI指数调整后，译者注）年平均上涨1%，但那些收入最高的 1%人群的收入每年却上涨11%，占了布什执政时期经济收入的四分之三。曾经被看做欧式恶习的“经济嫉妒”，如今却很盛行。在巴拉克•奥巴马的演讲中，富有并不是根植于企业家的典范作用，而是源自一个世纪前罗斯福总统所谴责的“巨额财富的罪人”的现代翻版：这些人与其说是建立信任，不如说是为了逃税和向墨西哥输出劳务。全球化正处于水深火热之中：自由贸易在美国比在任何其他发展中国家都不流行，并且这个由移民组成的国家正在建立阻止移民进入的壁垒。人们开始在家中抱怨国家建设：很多人想知道，为什么美国小孩的阅读水平不如波兰小孩，而且数学成绩不如立陶宛小孩？

身边的巨龙喘息

在国外，为了很小的目的，美国花费了巨大的血汗和财富。在伊拉克，找到一种体面的退出方式甚至可以看成是一种成功；而在阿富汗方面却渐渐松弛。因为关塔那摩监狱、阿布加里卜监狱以及在9•11之后张皇失措的单极世界姿态中表现出的对日内瓦公约的蔑视，美国曾宣称将成为黑暗世界里的自由之光，但目前已经黯然失色。

现在的世界更加多极化。欧洲已经不再顾及美国的霸主地位。有人说法国人比新保守主义者更加了解阿拉伯世界。俄罗斯，海湾地区和正在崛起的亚洲国家公开嘲笑华盛顿共识。特别是中国让美国人感到恐慌——而且会在接下来几周中在对奥运金牌的追逐中更加如此。美国人正在讨论中国崛起和其自身相继而来的相关衰退，揣测中国经济何时将会变得更加强大以及估算其导弹和潜水艇的数量，已经在华盛顿成为一种流行的消遣。就在几年之前，没有一个政客会看一本叫做“后美国时代”的书，但是很显然，奥巴马先生正在读Fareed Zakaria最近的著作。

美国之前曾经陷入过低谷。20世纪50年代陷入了与苏联有关的，由人造卫星驱动的漩涡之中；在70年代发生了水门事件，越战和石油冲击；在80年代末，日本似乎可以将美国收购。因为美国擅长自我修复，所以每一次都起死回生。正像美国资本主义允许公司破产、并且很快被重建，它的政治体制反应很快。在欧洲，政治领袖通过党内层级浮现缓慢，但是在美国，初选却允许无名之辈从不名之地涌入公众视野。

国家就像人一样，心情恶劣的时候行为也很危险。如果美国分不清什么需要改变和什么需要接受，它将不仅伤害同盟者和贸易伙伴，也会伤害自身。

亚洲替罪羊

当然有地区需要改革。信贷紧缩（不良贷款）是一个有瑕疵的监管体系的部分结果。松弛的货币政策——允许美国人负债以及催生的房产泡沫必将最终爆发。从这些错误中必须得到教训，就像他们对国家的教育和医疗保障的广泛关注一样。

美国学校的工会势力过强而不负责，其体制也需要同样的竞争，这样的竞争曾使得它的大学为全世界所羡慕。美国的医疗保健服务也亟需改革，尽管作为世界上最支出最多的但仍有数千万人没有得到保障。

美国在海外也有很多错误。以反恐为借口的战争总像往墙壁上放果冻一样站不住脚。至于关塔那摩海湾，是世界上最不像美国的地方：当其被关闭时人们会欢欣鼓舞。

在这些区域美国依然展现了其再造的天才。无论是共和党还是民主党的总统候选人都许诺关闭关塔那摩监狱。甚至小布什也在其第二任期将要结束的时候，开始看到片面限制武器论的局限性。他正在跟亚洲的同盟国（以及非同盟国）紧密合作，而不仅仅是谴责和威胁“邪恶轴心“来安抚朝鲜。他也刚刚第一次让美国官员参与关于伊朗核问题的谈判。

美国正开始改正自己的错误是好的，而且还有更多要去做。但是焦虑的来源需要态度的转变，而不是单单重树其地位：特别是与亚洲相比较，更特别地相对于中国，美国的衰退尤其明显。

当然，美国和崛起的亚洲之间的经济差距已经缩小。但是忧虑这一点是错误的，原因有两点：第一，即使以现状的增长率，中国的GDP要赶上美国也要四分之一个世纪；而且中国快速增长的经济引发的内部紧张会导致经济放缓；第二，即使亚洲的崛起不被削弱，把这个看做一个问题也是错误的——这种观点非常不美国化。经济增长就像贸易一样，并不是一个零和游戏。中国和印度增长地越快，他们购买的美国商品越多，而且由于他们适应了美国的思维，所以变得更加繁荣。美国应该把他们的成功看做是一种贡献，而非威胁，并要为之庆祝。

很不幸的是，很多美国人不想这样做。政客们频繁地为美国自己制造的问题寻求替罪羔羊，他们将矛头指向曾经贫穷却正在发展中的国家，指责它们抢夺了美国人的工作，并且在这些国家购买美国公司时针锋相对。但是如果美国转身自给自足——提高贸易壁垒，拒绝外国投资者——它将冒着加剧存在于其当前恐慌背后的经济危机恶化的风险。

每个人都会经历艰难时期。有些人从他们自己引起的问题中汲取教训，并且变得更为强大。有些人却归咎于别人，对自己造成更深的冲击与毁灭。美国曾经多次很明智地从自身吸取教训，让我们希望他再一次这么做。

[ 本帖最后由 瑰意绮行 于 2008-7-30 04:15 编辑 ]

不胜寒

作为中国人，我们要看到美国长期以来以制定规则，
从中使自己庞大的金融体系更加容易地搜刮他国经济果实，
而中国是唯一可靠自唯体系生存下来的经济体，
如果没有强大的政策力调控经济，那么中国将难免成为南美洲第二。