【登载媒体】时代周刊
【来源地址】http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1836837,00.html
【译者】erihao
【声明】本翻译仅供Anti-CNN使用，谢绝转载
【原文】
The New Gambit: Moscow's View
Thursday, Aug. 28, 2008 By JOHN WENDLE / MOSCOW
A white, red and yellow ribbon flutters gently across a billboardbackground of blue sky and puffy white clouds, entwined in the centerwith a white, blue and red-striped ribbon. The billboards, representingthe fraternal ties between the breakaway republic of South Ossetia andRussia, have sprung up all over Moscow in the past few days. Below theribbons, the slogan "Tskhinvali, We're Together" is written in bold,red block letters. It's a pretty, airbrushed image. But the reality of Moscow'srecognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as self-governing statesindependent of Georgia is far messier than mere brotherly support. Askprominent pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov, a senior deputy in PrimeMinister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev's United Russiaparty in the state Duma, why Russia risked such provocative action, and the answer is a mix of strategy, revenge for past Western slights and even domestic American politics. "One of the most important reasons is that Russia must protectAbkhazia and South Ossetia against genocide by the war criminal[Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili,"says Markov. "Saakashvili is totally militarized and brought in outsidesupport. Washington gave them all of the weapons and it has started togive weapons to the war criminal again." Second, says Markov, "Russia waited for 20 years to accept SouthOssetia and Abkhazia. South Ossetia and Abkhazia never lived togetherwith independent Georgia. Never. The question is, how many years shouldwe wait? Russia now has to make a new course, a new policy." And then there's Kosovo. Western recognition of the Balkan stateafter it declared independence from Serbia earlier this year angeredMoscow, which promised that the move would have consequences. "If theU.S. and Britain think they are first-level countries and Russia asecond-level country, we don't agree," says Markov. "We are the firstsort. If you recognize that Kosovo is an independent country, fine. Wewill do the same [with other countries]." Finally, says Markov, Russia's strong military response was a typeof warning. "This is a strong message to everybody. Those who thinkthat aggression against Russia is okay should know that there will be astrong response." That, he says, will lead to a "worsening ofrelations" with the West. "The West is very much afraid of themilitarization of Russia. They are afraid Russia will solve itsproblems the way it did in South Ossetia through military strength." But Markov says that Russia's leaders see a big distinction betweenthe U.S. and Europe, and will be careful to make that clear. "We knowthere is a huge difference between the E.U. and the U.S.," he says. "Weknow that the Bush administration is working for the election of JohnMcCain. The real order to kill South Ossetians came from Dick Cheney.If Obama [becomes] President and investigates how the Iraq war started,Dick Cheney would be imprisoned. The Neocons believe Obama is a weakpolitician and they will stop him by any means. The main idea is tocreate imitations of the Cold War between Russia and the West... Weknow that [to show Obama up] Neocons will carry out another provocationagainst Russia probably in Ukraine and we are ready for this. "Russia's interests coincide closely with the E.U. The E.U. is notinterested in civil war in Ukraine... Russia will be very careful andnot touch the pipelines because they influence many countries. Russiawill be quite moderate on this issue. The most important issue isprotecting human life, not pipelines. Pipeline politics is the tacticof the Neocons."
【译文】
争得先手：莫斯科的主张
在蓝天白云为背景的广告牌上，白色、红色和黄色作为基色的横条以动态贯串，中心部分缠绕着白蓝红三色的彩带。这个广告牌意在表明分离的南奥赛悌共和国与俄罗斯之间兄弟般的友谊。在横条之下，用红色粗体字写着口号：“茨欣瓦利，我们在一起。”（南澳赛悌首府，译者注）
这是个漂亮的喷涂图像。但是莫斯科承认南奥塞梯和阿布哈兹自治政府独立的事实表明，这远比兄弟般的支持要纷乱复杂。记者请教了著名的克里姆林宫支持者赛尔吉·马尔科夫，他同属普京和梅德韦杰夫所在的统一俄罗斯党，是国家杜马的资深议员。我问他俄罗斯为什么冒险采取如此具有进攻性的举动，他的答案是，这既有战略上的原因，同时也是对西方轻视甚至是对美国政客的报复。
“最重要的原因是俄罗斯必需保护南奥塞梯和阿布哈兹不受战争罪犯萨卡什维利的种族清洗，”马尔科夫说：“萨卡什维利是一个彻头彻尾军国主义分子并得到外部的支持。华盛顿给他们需要的所有的武器而且仍然为战犯提供武器。“
其次，马尔科夫说：“俄罗斯为了接纳南奥塞梯和阿布哈兹等了20年了。南奥塞梯和阿布哈兹从没有和独立后的格鲁吉亚在一起。从来没有！问题是我们还要等多少年？俄罗斯现在要采取新的方式，新的策略。”
之后有了科索沃问题。西方承认对这个巴尔干国家从塞尔维亚独立后给予承认，这激怒了莫斯科，它当时发誓这个行动会产生后果。“如果美国和英国认为他们是一流国家而俄罗斯是二流国家，我们不同意，”马尔科夫说道。“我们同样属于一流国家。如果你承认科索沃是一个独立的国家，那好吧，我们也会这样对待（其他国家）。”
最后，马尔科夫说，俄罗斯强硬的军事反击是一种警告。“这对每个人都是一个强烈的信号。那些认为俄罗斯可以被任意进攻的人应该知道等待他们的是强硬的回应。”他说这将导致与“西方关系的恶化”。“西方非常惧怕俄罗斯的军事能力。他们惧怕俄罗斯将采军事手段解决问题，就像对待南奥赛悌问题那样。”
但是马尔科夫说俄罗斯的领导人知道美国和欧洲存在着显著的区别，而且非常小心的加以明确的区分。“我们知道欧盟和美国之间存在巨大的差异，”他说道。“我们清楚布什政府正致力于使麦凯恩当选。屠杀南奥塞梯人的命令来自于迪克·切尼（美国副总统）。如果奥巴马当选并调查是什么引发了伊拉克战争，迪克·切尼将被投入监狱。新保守主义者们相信奥巴马是一个软弱的政客，他们会不惜一切手段阻止他当选。主要意图是引发人们对俄罗斯和西方冷战的恐惧……我们知道（为了使奥巴马显得张皇失措）新保守主义者们也许会在乌克兰试图再一次激怒俄罗斯，我们已经为此准备好了。”
“俄罗斯与欧盟的利益完全一致。欧盟对一个内战之中的乌克兰不感兴趣……俄罗斯将非常谨慎并且不会碰那些输油管道，因为这将影响许多国家。俄罗斯对待这个问题将相当的温和。最重要的问题是保护人的生命，而不是输油管道。而保守主义者的策略才是石油政治学。”
[ 本帖最后由 erihao 于 2008-8-29 02:29 编辑 ] | 
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