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【08.09.11 基督教科学箴言报】墨西哥是下一个中国吗？
【原文标题】Is Mexico the new China?
【中文标题】墨西哥是下一个中国吗？
【登载媒体】基督教科学箴言报
【来源地址】http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0911/p01s02-woam.html
【译者】荡漾
【声明】本翻译供Anti－CNN使用，转载请注明译者及出处。
【原文】(by Rafael Rivero and Sara Miller Llana)
Mexico City - Just as Mexico was becoming the rising star of global manufacturing in the 1990s, China's even cheaper wages turned that country into the world's factory.
But now, with skyrocketing oil prices, escalating labor costs in China, and an appreciating currency there, companies targeting the US market are doing the math and giving Mexico another look. So-called "nearshoring" could generate a reverse globalization that brings manufacturing back to Mexico.
"China was like a recent graduate, hitting the job market for the first time and willing to work for next to nothing," says German Dominguez, who advises companies that are considering producing in Mexico from his base in Ciudad Juárez. Now, China's experiencing the "perfect storm," he says. "It's making Mexico, a country that had been the ugly duckling when it came to costs, look a lot better." The driving factor of nearshoring is high oil prices, which is raising the price of shipping. "In a world of triple-digit oil prices, distance costs money," states a recent report by Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets. "And while trade liberalization and technology may have flattened the world, rising transport prices will once again make it rounder."
Producers of heavy or bulky items, such as refrigerators or cars, are being hit hardest by the spike in freight costs. According to the CIBC report, when oil sold for $30 per barrel in 2000, it cost American importers 90 percent more to ship their goods from East Asia than to transport them from Mexico. At May's prices of about $130 per barrel it cost 150 percent more.
Many companies targeting the US market wonder whether outsourcing in Asia is still worth it.
Mark Stephens, the director of logistics for the consumer products company Faultless Starch/Bon Ami in Kansas City, Mo., says his company is actively pursuing partners closer to the US.
For example, he says, the company is looking to manufacture some garden tools currently being produced in China and resold in the US. "It's to shrink the supply chain," he says.
Some have already made the move. The printing company Lexmark, for example, relocated its molding operations for printer cartridges back to Mexico from China, with new facilities in Reynosa and Ciudad Juarez, according to Gulf Shipper, a weekly industry publication. Lexmark could not be reached for comment.
While many analysts are talking about reverse globalization, most companies are still at the early stages of rethinking their logistics networks, says Antonio Boccalandro, vice president for Latin America for i2, a supply chain management solutions company in Dallas, in part because of transportation costs and limited capacity at US ports. Still, two years ago, he says, no one was even interested in such scenarios.
Even in industries like mining – a primary, labor-intensive industry that once looked to China as its solution – US manufacturers are giving Mexico another chance.
"It was a whisper in the end of 2007," says Lisa Reisman, a metals specialist and managing director at Chicago-based Aptium Global.
Her clients, she says, have warmed up to Mexico as their cost savings in China dropped from a high of 35 percent to about half that. "When they hit that 15 percent range, they started scratching their heads and said, 'in Mexico, there's a shorter supply chain, I have less inventory in my chain, we're on the same time zone, and I can get 20 percent savings.' "
It's not all about high oil prices, either. China's export taxes have risen, and its workers are demanding higher wages, trends aggravated by the rapid appreciation of the Chinese currency against the US dollar. While the Mexican peso has also strengthened against the dollar, the change has been much less dramatic.
"There is increasing cost of labor in China. China still handles the textiles and apparel, but a lot of people on the margin are looking at the exchange rate moving slowly but unfavorably. The quality of labor in China is probably increasingly suspect as well," says Bill Gilmer, vice president in charge of the El Paso Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. "This is all positive for Mexico."
Those companies that remained in Mexico during the flight to China – particularly those in the automobile industry – have since developed more advanced processes and techniques. In recent years, the country has experienced strong growth in high-value-added industries, such as pharmaceuticals, custom-order electronics, and biotechnology.
To be sure, Mexico must confront a number of challenges.
The high costs of raw materials and grid energy continue to weigh on foreign producers. Labor is still more expensive than in Asia, and inflation has ticked up. And Mexico must compete with China's army of technicians and engineers.
"China's strength is not only in its huge numbers," says Greg Cudahy, global managing partner of supply chain strategy at Accenture. "It's also that its educational push has been focused on the kind of skills that build manufacturing capability. Education is really going to have to continue to be pushed by the Mexican government and by the corporations that invest in Mexican manufacturing. That's needed for sustainability."
【译文】
上世纪九十年代墨西哥逐步成为全球制造业的新生力量，不过中国以其更为低廉的劳动力成本一举成为世界工厂。
现在随着暴涨的石油价格、中国不断上涨的劳动力成本以及墨西哥令人心仪的货币流通，让意在美国市场的公司重新考量墨西哥。所谓的“近岸外包”（意指美国市场的制造业据点于加拿大和墨西哥地区）原则可能会翻转全球化趋势而将制造业转回墨西哥。
德国的Dominguez，其提供咨询服务的公司正考虑在墨西哥生产，从其位于Ciudad Juárez的公司告知记者：“中国就像个初涉社会的毕业生进入就业市场满怀热情从零开始”。而现在中国已经历了一场“完美风暴”。“如今墨西哥这只昔日的丑小鸭在成本的较量中占了上风”。
近岸外包原则的驱动因素是高油价，这直接影响到运输成本。加拿大投资银行CIBC世界市场的最新研究报告称“在油价攀登到三位数的今天，（运输）距离就是钱”，“尽管贸易自由化及技术的发展可能使世界趋同但不断上涨的运输价格将再次扩大差异”。
大型或重型产品生产商，如冰箱或汽车，是受运输成本影响最厉害的。根据CIBC的研究报告，2000年石油每桶30美元，美国进口商从东亚地区海运货物要比从墨西哥起运高出90%的成本，而今年5月石油每桶130美元的价格下成本要高出150%。
许多将美国作为目标市场的公司开始考虑外包给亚洲是否值得。
密苏里州堪萨斯市Faultless Starch/Bon Ami消费品公司的供应商主管Mark Stephens称其公司正积极加强同更靠近美国的采购商合作。
他举例说公司正计划制造一批花园用具，目前是在中国生产到美国销售，但“我们考虑收缩供应链”。
有些公司已经采取行动转移。印刷公司Lexmark将其打印机墨盒的组装成型工序业务从中国转移到了墨西哥，而新设备安置在Reynosa和Ciudad Jarez，消息来源于Gulf Shipper，一家工业出版周刊，Lexmark公司并未作直接回应。
达拉斯供应链管理方案公司I2拉丁美洲区副总裁Antonio Boccalandro表示尽管许多分析师在谈论全球化逆向，实际上大多数公司构建物流网络还只是初步设想，原因部分在于运输成本以及美国有限的港口容量。不过放在2年前根本不会有人产生这样的想法。
即使像矿业这样的初级劳动密集型行业过去被视为中国的囊中之物，美国制造商现如今已倾向于墨西哥。
总部位于芝加哥的Aptium Global公司的金属专家兼主管Lisa Reisman说：“这种迹象始于2007年底”。
她说她的客户已准备转向墨西哥，考虑到因此节约下来的成本可高达35%低也在17-18％左右。“当看到15%左右的比例，他们就开始拍脑袋算计‘墨西哥供应链更短，我的存货将更少，又在同一时区，还能节约20%成本’”。
其实不光是高油价的问题。人民币对美元快速升值迫使中国的出口关税提高、工人工资上涨的趋势加重。而墨西哥比索对美元汇率稳定，变动幅度较小，没那么戏剧化。
达拉斯联邦储备银行El Paso分行执行副总裁Bill Gilmer说：“中国的劳动力成本在上升，尽管目前中国仍主导纺织品和服装业，但许多人观察到汇率缓慢变动却不合人们期望。同时劳动力素质可能也将逐步面临质疑。”“而墨西哥的状况正相反”。
这些年一直往中国跑却坚持驻点墨西哥的那些公司，尤其汽车产业，发展了更加先进的工艺技术。近年来墨西哥的高附加值行业获得了强劲增长，如制药、定制电子及生物科技。
不过可以肯定的是墨西哥也需要面临许多挑战。
原材料和能源的高成本依然是外国生产商的主要考量。劳动力成本目前还是比亚洲要贵，通货膨胀也在上升。墨西哥还必须同中国竞争技术人员及工程师队伍。
Accenture供应链策略全球管理合伙人Greg Cudahy说：“中国的力量不仅在于它的劳动力数量庞大，还在于它通过教育推动培养了制造业所需的技能。墨西哥政府和那些投资墨西哥制造业的公司确实需要继续推动教育的发展，这正是可持续发展的需要”。
【截图】
[ 本帖最后由 荡漾 于 2008-9-15 04:05 编辑 ] |
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自身发展才是硬道理
发表于 2008-9-19 06:30