【经济学人20121231】中国经济超越美国指日可待
本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 14:00 编辑【中文标题】中国经济超越美国指日可待
【原文标题】How to get a date
The year when the Chinese economy will truly eclipse America’s is in sight
【登载媒体】经济学人
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/node/21542155
【译者】Salome
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
IN THE spring of 2011 the Pew Global Attitudes Survey asked thousands of people worldwide which country they thought was the leading economic power. Half of the Chinese polled reckoned that America remains number one, twice as many as said “China”. Americans are no longer sure: 43% of US respondents answered “China”; only 38% thought America was still the top dog. The answer depends on which measure you pick. An analysis of 21 different indicators chosen by The Economist (see the full set) finds that China has already overtaken America on over half of them and will be top on virtually all of them within a decade.
2011年春季，the Pew Global Attitudes Survey对全球数以千计的人们做了一项民意调查，调查内容是哪个国家是他们眼里的世界第一经济大国。超过半数的中国受访者认为美国仍然处于领先地位， 而美国那边的受访者则没那么乐观了：43%的美国受访者给出的答案是“中国”；只有38%的人认为美国仍然是名列榜首。答案的差异取决于人们所选择的评估方式。一项基于《经济学人报》选取的21种经济指标（见上图）的分析显示，中国已经在超过一半的指数上超越了美国，而且有望在十年之内问鼎所有的指标。
Economic power is best gauged by looking at absolute size rather than per-person measures. On a few indicators, such as steel consumption, ownership of mobile phones and beer-guzzling (a crucial test of economic superiority), the milestone was reached as long as a decade ago. Several more have been passed since. In 2011 China exported about 30% more than the United States and spent some 40% more on fixed capital investment. China is the world’s biggest manufacturer, and partly as a result it burns around 10% more energy and emits almost 40% more greenhouse gases than America (although its emissions per person are only one-third as big). The Chinese also buy more new cars each year than anybody else.
衡量经济实力的最佳方式是对整体而不是人均情况进行观察。在少数指标上，例如钢材消耗量，手机拥有量和啤酒消耗量（这是一项代表经济实力的重要指标），中国在十年前久超越了美国。此后，中国继续在多项指标上赶超美国。2011年，中国的商品出口量比美国的高出了30%，在固定资产投资上的数额也比美国高出了40%以上。作为世界最大的制造国，中国也比美国多消耗10%的能源，多排放40%的温室气体（尽管其人均排放量不足美国的三分之一）。中国的汽车购买量也居世界之首。
The country that invented the compass, gunpowder and printing is also challenging America in the innovation stakes. We estimate that in 2011 more patents were granted to residents in China than in America. The quality of some Chinese patents may be dubious but they will surely improve. The World Economic Forum’s “World Competitiveness Report” ranks China 31st out of 142 countries on the quality of its maths and science education, well ahead of America’s 51st place. China’s external financial clout also beats America’s hands down. It has total net foreign assets of $2 trillion; America has net debts of $2.5 trillion.这个曾经发明了指南针、火药和印刷术的国家在发明创造方面也正与美国抗衡。我们估计2011年间中国公民所获得的专利权在数量上超过了美国公民。尽管这些中国专利的质量仍有商榷的余地，但它们毫无疑问会不断提升。世界经济论坛所发布的“世界竞争力报告”对142个国家进行了评估，在数学和科学教育质量方面将中国排在了第31位，超过了名列第51位的美国。中国的外部经济重创同样使得美国经济受到了牵连。中国的国外不动产净额为2万亿，而美国的净负债额却达到了2.5万亿。
The chart shows our predictions for when China will overtake America on several other measures. Official figures show that China’s consumer spending is currently only one-fifth of that in America (although that may be understated because of China’s poor statistical coverage of services). Based on relative growth rates over the past five years it will remain smaller until 2023. Retail sales are catching up much faster, and could exceed America’s by 2014. In that same year China also looks set to become the world’s biggest importer—a huge turnaround from 2000, when America’s imports were six times those of China.
图中给出了中国将会在更多其他指标上超越美国的具体年份。官方数据显示中国的消费支出实际上只有美国的1/5（尽管这可能是由于中国数据覆盖服务系统的不完善所导致的低估）。就过去五年的相关增长率来看，即使到了2023年，这个数值仍会低于美国。零售额的增长率速度更快，并有望在2014年超过美国。仍然是在今年，中国会成为世界最大的进口国—这是自2000年以来的一个重大转变；2000年时，美国的进口率是中国的6倍。
Find even more indicators and adjust the figures to make your own predictions using our interactive chart
找出更多指标并并调整数值，用我们的Excel表格的交互模式来制作你自己的预测表。
What about GDP, the most widely used measure of economic power? The IMF predicts that China’s GDP will surpass America’s in 2016 if measured on a purchasing-power parity (PPP) basis, which adjusts for the fact that prices are lower in poorer countries. But America will only really be eclipsed when China’s GDP outstrips it in dollar terms, converted at market-exchange rates.那么在GDP（国民生产总值），这一被运用得最广泛的经济实力指标上，又有什么表现呢？国际基金货币组织预测，如果以购买力水平为基准（该指标由于在经济较为落后的国家物价较低而做出调整），中国的GDP将会在2016年超过美国。但是只有在市场交易率上按照美元计算时，中国的GDP才能在真正意义上超过美国。
In 2011 America’s GDP was roughly twice as big as China’s, down from eight times bigger in 2000. To predict how quickly that gap might be closed, The Economist has updated its interactive online chart (also here) which allows you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. Our best guess is that annual real GDP growth over the next decade averages 7.75% in China (down from 10.5% over the past decade) and 2.5% in America; that inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averages 4% and 1.5% respectively; and that the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. If so, then China will overtake America in 2018. That is a year earlier than our prediction in December 2010 because China’s GDP in dollar terms increased by more than expected in 2011.2011年，美国的GDP是中国的2倍，而2000年时是中国的8倍。为了预测出这一差距多久之后会消失，《经济学人报》更新了它的交互模式在线表格（如图），这个表格允许网民在线填入自己对于中美GDP增长的预测值、通货膨胀率和人民币兑美元的汇率。我们的最佳猜想是，中国每年的GDP真实增长值，即未来十年平均值是7.75%（前十年中这一数值是10.5%），美国是2.5%；中国和美国的通货膨胀率（按照GDP的消除通货膨胀指数估算）的平均值分布是4%和1.5%；人民币在这一年内升值了3%。按照这一预测，中国将在2018年超越美国。这个预期时间比我们在2010年12月给出的预期时间要早，因为2011年中国的GDP按美元换算后上升幅度比预期得要高。
Second place is for winners
赢家位居第二
Even if China became the world’s biggest economy by 2018, Americans would remain much richer, with a GDP per head four times that in China. But Rupert Hoogewerf, the founder of the annual Hurun Report on China’s richest citizens, reckons that it may already have more billionaires. His latest survey identified 270 dollar billionaires but the true total, he says, is probably double that because many Chinese are secretive about their wealth. According to the Forbes rich list, America has 400 billionaires or so.由于美国的GDP每年都会领先于中国4倍，即使在2018年中国成为世界最大的经济国，美国仍然比中国富裕得多。但是胡润中国富豪的年度报道创始人Rupert Hoogewerf认为，中国已经有了更多的亿万富翁。他的最新调查表明中国有270位亿万美元富翁，但是他认为实际人数可能要翻一番，因为许多中国人不会透露自己的实际财富。据福布斯的富翁名单显示，美国有400多名亿万富翁。
America still tops a few league tables by a wide margin. Its stockmarket capitalisation is four times bigger than China’s and it has more than twice as many firms in the Fortune global 500, which lists the world’s biggest companies by revenue. Last but not least, America spends five times as much on defence as China does, and even though China’s defence budget is expanding faster, on recent growth rates America will remain top gun until 2025.在一些排行榜上，美国仍然领先于中国。美国的股票投资额是中国的的4倍，而且在全球500强企业（按照大宗收入额上榜的世界最大的公司）里，美国企业的数量是中国企业的2倍。还有一点不容忽视，现阶段美国在国防上的支出是中国的5倍，而且尽管中国的国防预算在持续增长，但就最近的增长率来看美国在2025的国防支出仍会名列榜首。
Being the biggest economy in the world does offer advantages. It helps to ensure military superiority and gives a country more say in fixing international rules. Historically, the biggest economy has become the issuer of the main reserve currency, which is why America has also been able to borrow more cheaply than it otherwise would. But it would be a mistake for American leaders to try to block China’s rise. China’s rapid growth benefits the whole global economy. It is better to be number two in a fast-growing world than top dog in a stagnant one.成为世界第一经济大国的好处显而易见。这个位置不仅确保了军事上的优势地位，而且在制定国际条例时享有更多的发言权。历史上最大经济国往往是储备货币的发行者，这就是为什么美国能在借外债时比其他国家享受更加优惠的价格。美国领导人试图阻止中国的崛起是一个错误的做法。中国的迅速发展使全球经济受益。而且，在这个发展迅速而又遭遇经济停滞的时代，位居第二比名列榜首更为可观。
补充内容 (2012-1-3 13:59):
原文中出现的the Pew Global Attitudes Survey是皮尤研究中心（Pew Reasearch Center）的一项民意调研活动，有道的翻译是“皮尤全球态度调查”。谢谢James的提醒。 元旦快乐各位！话说有谁知道the Pew Global Attitudes Survey的准确翻法？知道的同学告知一下，谢谢啦{:soso_e176:} 本帖最后由 Salome 于 2012-1-3 14:03 编辑
Salome 发表于 2012-1-1 13:24 http://bbs.m4.cn/static/image/common/back.gif
元旦快乐各位！话说有谁知道the Pew Global Attitudes Survey的准确翻法？知道的同学告知一下，谢谢啦{:sos ...
不用有道的人桑不起，皮有全球态度调查（the Pew Global Attitudes Survey），发起该调查的机构官网在这里http://pewresearch.org/
谢谢James的提醒。
{:soso_e100:} Salome 发表于 2012-1-1 13:24 static/image/common/back.gif
元旦快乐各位！话说有谁知道the Pew Global Attitudes Survey的准确翻法？知道的同学告知一下，谢谢啦{:sos ...
元旦快乐，第一次发文吧，感谢翻译！ lilyma06 发表于 2012-1-4 13:26 static/image/common/back.gif
元旦快乐，第一次发文吧，感谢翻译！
新年快乐！ 翻译辛苦了 ykfo2 发表于 2012-1-4 16:12 static/image/common/back.gif
翻译辛苦了
还好，谢谢关心，共勉：） {:soso_e103:}
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