【一日一议】伊核问题!战乱不止!呜呼! 中东地区何去何从?!

北小沫

中国外长杨洁箎访问伊朗后，伊朗突然将核武发展的蓝图交给联合国国际原子能总署，这其间有什么关连？

据伊朗总统阿玛迪尼杰说，中国向伊朗提出一个很特别的建议，但他没有说建议内容，而中国方面也没有任何透露。假如硬要将两件事关连起来，是否中国建议伊朗尽量满足国际原能总署的要求，让该署署长艾巴拉迪在提交报告时，始终强调由国际原能总署来解决问题，从而避免联合国安全理事会的处理？

在伊核问题上，俄罗斯与中国的立场已非常接近，另一方面，英国、法国、德国却全倒向美国，壁垒分明。俄中可以藉由六国会谈（五常任理事国加德国）坚持透过谈判来解决问题，也可以在安理会阻止对伊朗动武甚至施加更严厉的制裁，但却无法阻止美国径自对伊朗动武，这就是俄中要绝对避免的事。

根据一些判断，布什政府之有此意图是一石两鸟的作为，一则可以摧毁伊朗的核设施，使其在可见的将来无法拥有核武，二则可以使伊朗自顾不暇，杜绝或减少其对伊拉克境内武装势力的支持，以及对黎巴嫩真主党和巴勒斯坦"哈玛斯"组织的接济。而后者更是布什的目标重点。

如果是这样，俄中关心的就不仅是一个伊朗，而是中东的全局了。俄国外长拉夫罗夫访问了伊朗，接着中国外长也访问了，而据公开及私下的揭露，两国外长都劝伊朗屈服一些，以免招致不测。事实上，伊朗也有不少位高权重的人物持此看法，但这与阿玛迪尼杰的政策有违，甚至被他指为叛国者。




提问：现在提到中东，我们脑海中浮现的画面是硝烟四起，烽火连天，生灵涂炭，民不聊生，虽然也有好的国度，但是给人的感觉已经支离破碎！；因为它的富饶和美丽，战火一直燃烧在两河流域，但是相比那些辉煌传奇的历史，现在沦为板上鱼肉的悲惨总是让我不禁唏嘘，犹然记得那些闪耀在这片土地上的光芒，尼布甲尼撒二世和米帝国公主的故事，新巴比伦王国，亚述，赫梯，金碧辉煌的宫殿，美轮美奂的艺术，神奇的空中花园和它浪漫的传说，无与伦比的通天塔，可是。。一切都仿佛已是一场梦境。
          这块古老的土地何时能迎来他们的复兴？或是永远不再可能？中东地区的明天在哪里？还是已成一场死局?
          这个议题比较大，哈哈，偶就在这里抛瓦引玉了！！





中东简介
http://baike.baidu.com/view/19973.htm

中东历史
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:%E4%B8%AD%E4%B8%9C%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2

深度分析：中东时局面临大变革、大转折
http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-100630-1-4.html

上个月开的:伊朗问题专贴
http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-95861-1-3.html

yixujituan

伊朗是中东重要的石油国家，同伊朗也是中东的兵家必争之地，伊朗被临战略位置突出的里海、土库曼斯坦、俄罗斯，西接欧盟成员国土耳其，东邻动荡阿富汗和巴基斯坦，南部为石油丰富且战乱时常发生的波斯湾，美国等西方国家不仅垂涎伊朗的丰富的石油资源，同时也觊觎此处非常重要军事战略位置。

美国等西方国家仍然不敢出兵伊朗的重要原因，就是俄罗斯和巴基斯坦和周边海湾国家的强烈反对，还有中国为了自己的利益也不能让美国随意出兵攻打伊朗。一旦美国出兵，首先受到牵连的就是巴基斯坦、土耳其和俄罗斯等国家，大量的难民将拥入这些国家。伊朗不同于伊拉克，伊拉克只有不到2000万人口，而伊朗有将近7000万人口，一旦美国等西方国家攻打伊朗，实际就是对俄罗斯和巴基斯坦等国的入侵。

可以想象一下将比伊拉克难民多近十倍逃难者拥入周边各国，对周边国家造成的伤害根本就是侵略。美国只要出兵俄罗斯和巴基斯坦绝对不会闲着，出现的结果完全有可能变成一场世界大战。美国如果执意要这样做的话，那她就会成为千古罪人。那就是世纪大屠杀！

世界完全有可能被美国入侵伊朗给彻底毁掉，那再下一次世界大战人类将又回到石头和棍棒的战争！

[ 本帖最后由 yixujituan 于 2008-9-23 10:07 编辑 ]

everemember

伊朗和叙利亚，中东仅剩的两个反对美国的国家，其他的中东国家都是美国的盟友。大家看下地图就知道了，拿下了伊朗，美国就彻底控制了中东。
但是伊朗的位置很敏感，因为中国和俄罗斯都不会放弃这个重要的关键。
另一方面，美国没有个3-5年恢复不了元气。美国纳税人的支付能力已经到了极限。再增加货币供应的结果导致的通货膨胀，将加剧次贷危机以来的困境。到时候美国经济全面崩溃并非不可能。这次崩溃将严重打击美元的国际货币地位。
确实不排除危机深化到一定程度之后 ，美国将卷入大战来拉动经济增长。
从一定意义上讲。伊朗还是有核武的好。。。

北小沫

原帖由 everemember 于 2008-9-23 10:29 发表
伊朗和叙利亚，中东仅剩的两个反对美国的国家，其他的中东国家都是美国的盟友。大家看下地图就知道了，拿下了伊朗，美国就彻底控制了中东。
但是伊朗的位置很敏感，因为中国和俄罗斯都不会放弃这个重要的关键。
另一方面，美国没 ...

还记得地震后沙特捐巨款后，有新闻报道说胡总和沙特国王通电话，内容好像是共谋石油人民币体系，而且，我不觉得那些“同盟”是可靠的。毕竟伊斯兰世界有一个共同的敌人“以色列”，而美国，是不可能放弃以色列的。

ljandcyz2008

        阿以问题的最初来源就是巴以问题。而巴以问题又成为了阿以问题的集中体现。只要巴勒斯坦的和平进程不能够进行下去，美国人的利益可就多了。国际关系的不确定因素太多了，以色列周围的几个阿拉伯国家，谁敢肯定战争不会在明天爆发。

         以色列太强悍的。前几次中东战争，以色列全胜。就是前期败了，也会败中取胜。最重要的是，以色列竟然还有核弹。为什么从埃及开始，一个个阿拉伯国家先后露出和以色列和解的意图？因为打怕了。可谁又能肯定，表面的和解就能带来长期的和平呢？于是，中东国家，都向美国买武器。这一是加强自己的国家安全，二是拉拢和美国的关系。甚至，以石油的美元结算来作为抵押，换取自身的国家安全保障。以色列好久没大打了，于是某些国家开始忘记了。马上，以色列入侵黎巴嫩。美国叫停，以色列就停了。中东各国原本因为伊拉克战争被打散了的心又都归到了美国麾下。各国发现，原来法国和德国在中东地区还真是完全不行。山姆大叔千秋万载，一统江湖呀。

        看到巴勒斯坦人打巴勒斯坦人，笔者心疼。也许有一定程度上是同情弱者。不过这种程度不高。更多是为中国未来进入中东的难度担忧。美国在中东的布局已经比较成熟了。想要进入，没有一两个大手笔，还真不见得能够挤进去。

        建立在巴勒斯坦人民的鲜血和生命的基础上的，是中东滚滚石油利益以美元结算的滚滚石油资本以及其背后的货币霸权。这种邪功的实质就是把巴勒斯坦的鲜血变成美国的钞票。笔者不得不承认，美国的中东利益图，正力图支撑山姆大叔的千秋万载，一统江湖的宏图伟业。高，实在是高！原来做了那么长时间，那么大场面的和平路线图，仅仅是美国屠杀中东人民的一个道具。


        打有打的道理，和有和的理由。一个爱国而理智的中国人，在不能掌握足够信息的民间，切记一切不能太当真。上升到攻击政府的层面，即为不智。也许你自信满满的背后，却是一个小小的漏洞，已经抽掉了你理论基石上最重要的一块砖头。

czbvas

斑竹不愧是斑竹，愿AC千秋万载，东方斑竹一统江湖

lushude

原帖由 czbvas 于 2008-9-23 20:12 发表
斑竹不愧是斑竹，愿AC千秋万载，东方斑竹一统江湖

马屁拍的歪歪的!他又不是人妖

阿平

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/09/23/ahmadinejad.us/index.html

Ahmadinejad: 'American empire' nearing its end

(CNN)
-- In a blistering speech before the United Nations General Assembly, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blamed "a few bullying powers" for creating the world's problems and said the "American empire in the world is reaching the end of its road."

And while he insisted Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful, Ahmadinejad blamed the same powers for seeking to hinder it "by exerting political and economic pressures on Iran, and threatening and pressuring" the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Those powers, meanwhile, are building or maintaining nuclear stockpiles themselves, unchecked by anyone, he said.
As Ahmadinejad spoke, the only person at the United States table was a note-taker; no U.S. diplomat was present. When President Bush spoke earlier Tuesday, however, Ahmadinejad was in the room.
"As long as the aggressors, because of their financial, political and propaganda powers, not only escape punishment, but even claim righteousness, and as long as wars are started and nations are enslaved in order to win votes in elections, not only will the problems of the global community remain unsolved, but they will be increasingly exacerbated," the Iranian leader said.
He accused the United States of oppressing Iraqis with six years of occupation, saying Americans were "still seeking to solidify their position in the political geography of the region and to dominate oil resources."

Meanwhile, he said, Palestinians have undergone "60 years of carnage and invasion ... at the hands of some criminal and occupying Zionists."
He said Zionists in Israel "have forged a regime through collecting people from various parts of the world and bringing them to other people's land, by displacing, detaining and killing the true owners of that land."
The Security Council, he said, "cannot do anything, and sometimes under pressure from a few bullying powers, even paves the way for supporting these Zionist murders."
He stopped short of calling for Israel to be politically wiped off the map as he has in the past. He called for "a free referendum in Palestine for determining and establishing the type of state in the entire Palestinian lands."
Ahmadinejad pointed to what he said are signs of hope, saying an increasing number of nations are turning their backs on "the bullying powers" and seeking to establish new relations.
"Today the Zionist regime is on a definite slope to collapse," he said.
Hours before that speech, Bush told the General Assembly that Iran was among the nations that "continue to sponsor terror."
"Yet their numbers are growing fewer, and they're growing more isolated from the world," Bush said.
Bush also said U.N. members needed to enforce sanctions against Iran for failing to suspend its nuclear program, which the United States and other Western nations believe is intended to develop nuclear weapons.
Before Ahmadinejad spoke to the U.N., he said in a recorded interview to air on CNN's "Larry King Live" Tuesday night that he is willing to meet with presidential candidates Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama -- even in front of the media -- to discuss world issues and debate.

But he said he has no preference between the two.
"We believe that these are issues relating to the domestic affairs of the United States," Ahmadinejad told Larry King of the presidential race, according to a transcript of the interview.
"And decisions pertaining to that must be made by the American people. And it's not important to us either," Ahmadinejad said. "What matters essentially is that the president that is chosen by the American people should adopt a path and a policy approach and for us to observe the policy approach.
"This is the campaign period, anyone can say anything. So we disregard that. What matters is that once someone is in office, we have to watch and see if that person will bring about some changes in policy or continue the same old path."
Ahmadinejad
was in New York City for the United Nations General Assembly meeting, which began Tuesday.
"I have said that, in fact, on this very trip, currently in New York, that I am ready to speak with the presidential candidates before the press," he told Larry King. "I believe that we've really done whatever we could do in this respect."

Asked whether he fears a U.S. attack, Ahmadinejad told King that attacking Iran would be the "worst thing the U.S. government can do ... I think that in the United States, there are enough reasonable people, smart people, who would not allow the U.S. government to make such a big mistake."
Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, meanwhile, would be "the best scenario," Ahmadinejad said. "But I think that it needs a timetable ... the presence of the United States there has not reduced tension and it has not limited terrorism either. In fact, it has increased terrorism."
On hostility between the United States and Iran, Ahmadinejad told King: "The hostility has not been from our end. Up to this day, we have always been interested in having friendly relations."
Iran, he said later, "throughout history ... has demonstrated that it is a nation that is for peace and friendly with others."
And he insisted Iran's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, despite Western nations' concern to the contrary.
"Their concerns about us are not new," he told King of the West. "They've always been concerned. They were the ones who inspired Saddam [Hussein] to attack Iran and get us involved in an eight-year war. The terrorist groups that killed our president, our prime minister, our officials, are now freely asked to live in the Western countries."
The nuclear issue, he said, has been politicized and is not a legal struggle at all, noting the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog group, has "not detected any noncompliance or deviation" on the part of Tehran.
Ahmadinejad spoke extensively of Iran's support for Palestinians. The Iranian leader previously has made statements suggesting that Israel be politically "wiped off the map," though he insists that can be accomplished without violence. He has questioned the existence of the Holocaust, the genocidal Nazi campaign against European Jews, and warned Europeans that they may pay a heavy price for its support of Israel.
He insisted, however, that he and his country wish no harm to Jews.
"We have no problems with Jewish people," he said. "There are many Jews who live in Iran today ... but please pay attention to the fact that the Zionists are not Jews. They have no religion ... they just have -- wear masks of religiosity. How can you possibly be religious and occupy the land of other people?"
On the Holocaust, he said an impartial group should research whether it happened as has been claimed.
"There is a claim that the extent of the calamity was what it was," Ahmadinejad said. "There are people who agree with it. There are people who disagree."

Ahmadinejad has also caused controversy by previously suggesting there were no homosexuals in Iran. Regarding that statement, he told King: "I said it is not the way it is here. In Iran this is considered a very -- obviously, most people dislike it. And we have, actually, a law regarding it and the law is enforced."
However, he said, "we do pay attention that in Iran nobody interferes in the private lives of individuals. We have nothing to do with the private realm of people. This is at the -- non-private, public morality. In their own house, nobody ever interferes."

阿平

伊朗姿态说：美国末日快到了。
文章有提到，伊朗的核子武器被协查了，一切符合规定。

文章大意是：
伊朗总统说：美国帝国快完了。
伊朗总统有些国家是钻们欺负国家，制造很多麻烦，说美国帝国的地位快完了。

"Their concerns about us are not new," he told King of the West. "They've
always been concerned. They were the ones who inspired Saddam [Hussein]
to attack Iran and get us involved in an eight-year war. The terrorist groups
that killed our president, our prime minister, our officials, are now freely
asked to live in the Western countries."
他们（美国）对我们的关心不是新的，他们一直很关心。他们就是给Saddam灵感去
攻打伊朗，那战为持了８你。那些恐怖集团杀了我们的总统／主席？／官员，现在
自由的在西方国家居住。

The nuclear issue, he said, has been politicized and is not a legal struggle
at all, noting the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear
watchdog group, has "not detected any noncompliance or deviation" on the
part of Tehran.
核武问题，已经被政治华，跟本不是法律问题。题点国际的元子能源人员？联合国
的狗仔队？也找不出不正长的东西。

对不起。。大概翻译一下。。

[ 本帖最后由 阿平 于 2008-9-24 09:21 编辑 ]

北小沫

原帖由 阿平 于 2008-9-24 09:19 发表
伊朗姿态说：美国末日快到了。
文章有提到，伊朗的核子武器被协查了，一切符合规定。

文章大意是：
伊朗总统说：美国帝国快完了。
伊朗总统有些国家是钻们欺负国家，制造很多麻烦，说美国帝国的地位快完了。

"Their concerns abo ...

下次可以翻译的详细些哈