【08.11.19 经济学家】中国2009前瞻——奥运之后

rebecca514

【08.11.19 经济学家】中国2009前瞻——奥运之后
【原文标题】After olympics
【中文标题】奥运之后
【登载媒体】经济学家
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/theworldin/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12494522
【译者】Gwen
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，转载请注明译者及出处，谢谢！
【译文】


亚洲

奥运后

中国新行程
        
        奥运会达到了它的主要目标之后——赢得最多的金牌，邀请到最多的世界领导，获得对设施及组织工作的赞赏——中国领导阶层最终能有精力关注其它事,让其长舒了一口气。接下来一年，中国政府需要对像是政策决定人应设法阻止经济过快下滑的同时也要防止通货澎胀的事投入更多的关注。他们同样受到了来自因股价低迷和物业市场委靡而受挫的新生中产阶级的压力。即使离镇压天安门广场运动事件已经20年了，但要求政治改革也是一个挑战。
        
        从国外方面，让人欣慰的是新任美国总统选举中候选人并没有在中美关系的问题上发生太多的口角。与台湾更稳定平和的关系也是另一件好事。自台湾总统马英九2008年的就职典礼表示他将会而且已经做出努力缓解与大陆紧张关系后，十年里第一次台湾岛在新年开始有点迹象表明有想和北京取得政治性发展的渴望。

值得纪念的年份
      
        在国内，奥运会的结束意味着政治枷锁得到了松懈。官员和普通百姓都不会再对为表达集体意愿而进行流行示威这种需要而感到拘束。那结果是今年可能会是动荡的一年。街头抗议明白地显示出一党制是不可行的，这也许还有其它导致动荡局面的催化剂，这可从通货膨胀到环境问题。甚至在奥运会前，即使安全部队提高了警戒，在中国的几个地方也有因民怨而起的暴动。
        
        政治活动家利用1989年6.4的天安门事件20周年这个时机，准备向中国政府提出政治改革的要求。照样地，这个请愿6.4日前后传播开来然后被中国共产党给“冷”处理掉。但是在2009年里，政治改革的辩论在共产党内部会变得更加激烈。2008年12月的中国改革开放政策施行30周年正式纪念会又给这场辩论会加了一把火。这个改革开放让中国走向了资本主义的道路。甚至官方媒体也表示了改革的下一步将会更多关注政策的制定。（即使没人敢提出正确的多党制度）。10月1日左右当中国庆祝共产党成立60周年时，这些问题又会出现的。60周岁诞辰对于像中国这样的信奉儒家文化的国家是具有非常重大的意义的，但是在这喧闹中，许多人都会问及非完成的革命事业——授权于民。
        
       中国的少数民族地区会变得异常地动荡不安。2008年3月用于镇压骚乱遍及西藏及西藏周边地区的大型的保安队将会大量留守。有可能在20009年3月10日号西藏武装叛乱50周年会加大措施力度。在那场叛乱中导致了西藏精神领袖达赖喇嘛的逃亡成为流亡精神领袖。因为这件事，对于西藏人来说三月是个敏感的时间。这将引起中国与西方另一场关于当局是否应该冷酷应答西藏所做出的任何尝试的揭丑潮（这令美国新总统头痛）。
      
       肯定地是，中国将发现自己在环境问题上会和西方发生争执。在奥运会之前中国就采用了大量措施控制环境污染并保证一个“无温室气体排放”的奥运会，来努力呈现出自己是一个环境保护主义者。2009年1月1日施行一项法律，要求工厂减少水资源用量，用清洁能源和回收利用废物。但是在2009年9月月底哥本哈根协商有关气候变化的京都条约时，中国非常不愿意承诺任何关于削减碳排放量的目标。随着中国制造业输出量持续飞涨，中国气候变化的可能性将会在今年变得更明显。
      
          经济研究公司，全球洞察，说在美元储汇上讲，名义上中国将在2009年超过美国成为世界最大的制造业者。但实际上（扣除通货膨胀和汇率率），这在2017年才能实现。但是早前的里程碑是引人注目的。因为中国一直坚持其是一个发展中国家，也应该被视为发展中国家，在2009年中国将清楚地表明他有成为大国的雄心（至少在科技方面）。在俄罗斯的帮助下，中国将在2009年发送他们的第一颗火星探测器。

亚洲
观察在中国
发现：一种新物种，其数量正在快速增长。
        
       中国几名纯粹业余者发现科学上未知的鸟类，这将会在2009年创造鸟类学历史。同时中国获得另一个转变：国产稀有鸟类观察研究的到来。直到最近，当地稀有鸟类观察者都是默默无名的。专家们研究中国的“标志性”鸟类——雉鸡，鹤和天鹅——而外国人研究其它1200种奇鸟。

        在过去几年里稀有鸟类观察者数目急增，在24个俱乐部里就有几万会员。他们大多数来自中国沿海地区的富庶地区。你要有时间观察鸟类和足够的金钱。然而因此引起的一连串环境变化破坏季候性海鸟和海鸟的栖息习惯，这样使他们在重大东亚到澳大利亚的迁徙中数目遭到骤减。

       十年前本以为已经灭绝的黑嘴端凤头燕鸥的再发现引起了一阵欢呼。但是它们就只有30只，而且2008年只有两对育种，它们现在命悬一线。另一个在沿海惊奇的发现是不可靠的。但是中国西南山林对鸟类学家而言近乎是处女地。业余鸟类观察者会带着他们的望远镜和相机来到西南山林地进行观察，这样就使得世界内的专家承认了他们观察漏了。
多米尼克齐格勒：东京分社社长，经济学

【原文】

Asia
After the Olympics
Nov 19th 2008
A new agenda for China
With its main objectives achieved at the Olympic games—the most gold medals, a good attendance by foreign leaders, and much praise for the facilities and organisation—China’s leadership is relieved at last to be able to focus on other matters. Much attention will be needed in the coming year as policymakers strive to prevent economic growth from slowing too fast while curbing inflation. They are under pressure too from a nascent middle class troubled in 2008 by a stockmarket slump and gathering gloom in the property market. Twenty years after the crushing of the Tiananmen Square democracy movement, demands for political change will also be a challenge. On the external front there will be some relief that the election of a new American president has not involved much wrangling between candidates over America’s relations with China. Calmer relations with Taiwan will also be a blessing. For the first time this decade, a new year begins with little sign of anxiety in Beijing over political developments on the island. Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou will continue the efforts he has been making since his inauguration in May 2008 to defuse tensions with the mainland.
Years to remember
At home the conclusion of the Olympics will mean a loosening of political fetters. No longer will officials and the public feel so constrained by a need to demonstrate a unity of purpose. The result could be a year of greater social turbulence. Street protests directed explicitly at one-party rule remain unlikely, but there are numerous potential catalysts for unrest, ranging from inflation to the environment. Even in the build-up to the games, with security forces on heightened alert, riots over local grievances erupted in several parts of China.Political activists will use the 20th anniversary of the June 4th 1989 crackdown in Tiananmen Square to step up demands for political change. Such petitions are commonly circulated around this date and are greeted with silence by the Communist Party. But in 2009 debate about political reform will intensify within the party itself. This will be fuelled by official commemorations of the 30th anniversary in December 2008 of China’s “reform and opening” policy, which put the country on the path to capitalism. Even in the official media there have been suggestions that the next stage of reform should focus more on politics (though no one has dared propose a proper multi-party system). Such questions will surface again around October 1st, when China celebrates the 60th anniversary of its founding as a communist state. Sixtieth birthdays are hugely important in Confucian cultures such as China’s, but amid the hoopla many will be asking about the revolution’s unfinished business—giving power to the people. China’s ethnic-minority regions will be particularly restless. The huge security contingent used to suppress the turmoil that swept Tibet and ethnic Tibetan areas of
neighbouring provinces in March 2008 will remain largely in place. It is likely to be
strengthened in the approach to the 50th anniversary, on March 10th 2009, of the
rebellion that led to the flight of the region’s spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, into
exile. March is always a sensitive time in the Tibetan calendar because of this date.
There will be another outbreak of recriminations between China and the West (and a headache for America’s new president) should the authorities respond heavyhandedly to any attempt by Tibetans to mark it. China will certainly find itself at loggerheads with the West over the environment. The country has been trying hard to present itself as pro-green, with a slew of measures in the build-up to the Olympics aimed at curbing air pollution and ensuring “carbon-neutral” games. On January 1st 2009 a new law will take effect requiring industries to cut water consumption, use more clean energy and recycle waste. But China will be very reluctant to pledge any specific targets for cuts in carbon emissions when negotiators meet in Copenhagen at the end of November 2009 to discuss a successor to the Kyoto treaty on climate change. The country’s climate-changing potential will become all the more conspicuous in the coming year as China’s manufacturing output continues to climb rapidly. Global Insight, an economic research company, says that in nominal dollar terms China should surpass America as the world’s biggest manufacturer in 2009. In real terms (adjusting for inflation and exchange rates) this will not occur until 2017, it says. But the earlier milestone will be the one that grabs attention. For all its insistence that it is still a developing country and ought to be treated as one, China in 2009 will make a clear demonstration that it has (in scientific terms at least) the ambitions of a great power. With Russia’s help, it will send its first probe to Mars late in 2009.
James Sillavan
Copyright © 2008 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
Asia
Twitching China
Nov 19th 2008
Discovered: a new species whose numbers are actually soaring
Mere amateurs in 2009 will make ornithological history in China by
discovering birds unknown to science. Notch up another of the country’s
transformations: the arrival of the homegrown twitcher.Until recently local bird-watchers were unknown. Professionals studied China’s “signature” birds—pheasants, cranes and swans—and foreigners were responsible for much of the knowledge about the remaining 1,200-odd bird species. The number of twitchers has exploded in the past few years, with a few thousand members in two dozen clubs. Most are in the affluent areas along China’s seaboard. You need free time to watch birds, and money. Yet the physical changes that go with affluence destroy the habitats of migratory shorebirds and seabirds, wreaking havoc on their numbers along the crucial East Asian-Australasian flyway. The rediscovery earlier
this decade of the Chinese crested tern, long thought extinct, was cause for celebration. But with a population of only 30, and only two breeding pairs in 2008, its fate hangs by a thread. another surprise discovery along the coast is unlikely. But China’s mountain forests of the south-west are nearly virgin territory for ornithologists. This is where amateur bird-watchers will drag their scopes and cameras, and cause the world’s professionals to admit they’ve been out-twitched.
Dominic Ziegler: Tokyo bureau chief, The Economist

[ 本帖最后由 rebecca514 于 2008-12-1 00:16 编辑 ]