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【08.12 6 卫报】从柏林到北京,不管总理还是总统都感到压力
【原文标题】from Berlin to Beijing, chancellors and president feel the strain
【中文标题】从柏林到北京,不管总理还是总统都感到压力
【登载媒体】卫报
【来源地址】http://www.guardian.co.uk/busine ... sion-global-economy
【译者】Gwen
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用,转载请注明译者及出处,谢谢!
【译文】
从柏林到北京,不管总理还是总统都感到压力
世界经济衰退的继续加深让许多世界首领们努力抵制金融动荡影响的希望受挫。
金融危机已经让世界政局换了新面貌。它决定性地让奥巴马赢得美国大选,让麦凯恩因为共和党经济管理不善而黯然失色。它将戈登布朗在政坛上死而复生,让他像个政客一样,确实是这样。它帮助尼古拉斯萨克齐重新赢回支持率,他同时为经济危机中充当领袖角色所以他这周制定了一个充满民粹措施的计划。世界少数其它领导却有一个“好”危机,非常著名的巴西总统路易斯伊纳西奥卢拉达席尔瓦,他也是经济民粹主义者,钵满了70%的支持率。
但是在世界大数地方,很难避免棘手的政治规律之一——当经济江河日下,当权人受责。加拿大首相斯蒂芬哈伯是这周感到此痛最深刻的,但是无论哪个地方那些做大生意的人现在必须担心自己的工作保障。那也同样对未受其害的人通过举行选举来受到影响。人民的愤怒用其它方式表达出来。
中国:胡锦涛
也算不上真正的抗议:100家工厂老板和员工,他们要求帮助收回破产公司旧账。
但是昨天在广州政府办公室外聚集是一连串事件中最近的一次。他们并不把自己的不幸怪罪于政府,他们希望政府能为他们做点什么。
难怪中国当局正发出他们是世界第四经济强国的警告。世界银行预测在5年保持两位数增长率真后,中国2009年的GDP增长率为7.5%——19年里最低。
因为其它国家也在经济衰退期,所以这并不算坏。然而中国仍然是一个发展中国家,8%的增长率必要地为扩大的劳动力提供了足够的就业。
最重要的,政府的合法性在很大程度上取决于提高生活标准。如果发展不稳定,这就很难解释为什么人民那么信任他们的领导而不自己选领导。大数多中国人附和官员们责怪美国的辛苦。并且他们赞扬4万亿元(3990亿英镑)的经济刺激计划,即使已经证实它没刚开始想的那样慷慨。
但是上周末,胡锦涛主席警告共产党经济衰退得太严重,它将挑战政府的控制力。官方媒体报道,“我们是否能将压力变为动力,危机变为生机,维持稳定并较快的经济发展……这将是对我们党管理能力的考验,”他警告到。
那并不意味着这个政党希望被推翻。但是施实政策和维持秩序在这个拥有13亿人口的大国家情况最好的时候是很难的。
著名共产党学者周小川,在这周警告大规模的失业可能大量增加偷盗事件和其它“威胁社会稳定”的事件。
他补充到:“这非常可能会造成会引起大规模社会动乱的敏感局势。”
【原文】
From Berlin to Beijing, chancellors and presidents feel
the strainThe deepening world recession has dented prospects for many of the world's leaders trying to contain the financial fallout
The financial crisis has already changed the face of the political world. It decisively tipped the US election in Barack Obama's favour, tarnishing John McCain with the brush of Republican economic mismanagement. It brought Gordon Brown back from the political dead, making him appear statesmanlike, assured. It helped Nicolas Sarkozy turn his approval ratings round, as he too sought to offer crisis leadership and this week produced a package heavily larded with populist measures. A handful of other leaders around the world are having a "good" crisis, most notably Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, another economic populist, who is basking in 70% approval ratings.
But across much of the world, it has been hard to avoid one of the intractable laws of politics - when the economy goes south, the people in charge get the blame. Canada's prime minister, Stephen Harper, is feeling the pain most acutely this week, but just about everyone running a substantial economy anywhere must now be worrying about their own job security. That goes too for those untroubled by the necessity of holding elections. Popular wrath has other ways of making itself felt.
China: Hu Jintao
It wasn't much of a protest: 100 factory owners and employees, demanding help to collect debts from a bankrupt company.
But the gathering outside government offices in Guangzhou yesterday was the most recent in a spate of incidents. And while demonstrators did not blame the government for their woes, they expected it to do something about them.
No wonder Chinese authorities are expressing real alarm about the world's fourth largest economy. The World Bank predicts 7.5% GDP growth in 2009 - the lowest rate for 19 years, after half a decade of double-digit expansion.
With other nations in recession, that doesn't sound so bad. Yet China is still a developing country, and 8% growth is thought necessary to provide enough jobs for the expanding labour force.
Above all, the government's legitimacy rests largely on its remarkable success in raising living standards. If progress falters, it will find it harder to explain why people should trust their leaders - and not try choosing their own. Most Chinese follow officials in blaming the US for their travails. And they applaud a 4 trillion yuan (£399bn) stimulus package, although it has proved less generous than first thought.
But last weekend, President Hu Jintao warned the politburo that the downturn was so severe it challenged the government's grip. "Whether we can turn this pressure into momentum, turn challenges into opportunities, and maintain steady and relatively fast economic development ... is a test of our party's capacity to govern," he cautioned, according to official media.
That does not mean the party expects to be overthrown. But implementing policy and keeping order is tough at the best of times in a vast country with 1.3 billion inhabitants.
Zhou Tianyang, a leading Communist party scholar, warned this week that mass unemployment could dramatically increase theft and robbery and other "menaces to social stability".
He added: "This is extremely likely to create a reactive situation of mass-scale social turmoil."
Tania Branigan
还有俄罗斯,日本,德国。
想知道更多的请留言
[ 本帖最后由 rebecca514 于 2008-12-7 20:54 编辑 ] |
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