本帖最后由 yangfuguang 于 2009-1-14 17:34 编辑
【原文标题】As China's Jobless Numbers Mount, Protests Grow Bolder
【原文】
As China's Jobless Numbers Mount, Protests Grow Bolder
Economic Woes Shining a Light On Social Issues
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, January 13, 2009; Page A07
BEIJING -- For months, the Communist Party had been able to deflect anger about factory closings toward the companies themselves. The party managed to come off as the benevolent savior by handing out cash to make up for unpaid salaries. The strategy stopped working at the Jianrong Suitcase Factory in late December.
When offered 60 percent of their wages to disband their protest and go home, the workers pushed back at riot police sent to keep them locked in their factory compound in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan. According to several witnesses, more than 100 irate workers broke through the cordon, some shouting, "There are no human rights here!"
As a global recession takes hold and China's economy continues to slow, growing legions of unemployed workers are becoming increasingly bold in expressing their unhappiness -- expanding a debate over how to protect the Chinese economy into long-fought disputes over other issues such as freedom of expression and equality before the law.
During most of the past two decades, concerns about China's human rights record have been overshadowed by the speed of its economic development and growing political influence in the world.
But as the economic crisis has grown, so, too, have challenges -- both small and large -- to the state's power.
In late November, two men whose village was involved in a dispute over a land deal took ink-filled eggs and desecrated Communist Party and national flags in Chongqing, the largest of China's four provincial-level municipalities, in a protest that copied the infamous defacing of Mao Zedong's portrait in the capital in 1989.
In December, 300 academics and other intellectuals signed a declaration of human rights known as Charter '08 that circulated on the Internet, sending Chinese authorities on a nationwide manhunt for its author.
Labor rights activist Li Qiang said China's economic problems have put the spotlight on social issues that have long existed -- such as the growing gap between the urban rich and the rural poor and the fight for worker rights -- but were played down by the government during the recent boom. "The crisis in the West is purely economic. But in China it's a huge political problem," said Li, director of the New York-based China Labor Watch.
The ripple effects of the sharp economic downturn are growing: Crime is rising, as are labor strikes by taxi drivers, teachers, factory workers and even investors unhappy that their stock market holdings are now 70 percent off their peak.
Although Chinese authorities have been able to quickly disband the recent protests, there is concern that a single national-level event, if mishandled by authorities, could lead to a serious political crisis.
"Without doubt, we are entering a peak period for mass incidents. In 2009, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the party and government," Huang Huo, a reporter for the state-run New China News Agency, warned this month in a magazine published by the news service.
The greatest threat may come from the newly unemployed.
Unemployment is now estimated to be at its highest levels since the Communist Party took over in 1949. Job creation and preservation has become a top priority of China's leaders, who are acutely aware of the role a deteriorating economy played in the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.
Economists say that if the growth of China's gross domestic product dips below 8 percent -- a healthy rate in most countries -- it would be a disaster here. The reason is that the demand for jobs would far outpace China's ability to create them.
Estimates by government research agencies for urban jobless top 18 million, or 9 percent of the workforce -- a rate unimaginably high to those who remember the guaranteed cradle-to-grave employment during Mao's time. This figure doesn't include the growing number of jobless among the 160 million migrant workers who are mostly employed in factories. The rural unemployment rate could be as high as 20 percent. In addition, 1 million college graduates are not expected to be able to find jobs this year.
China's social security minister, Yin Weimin, has said that the employment situation in China is "critical," with people fighting for jobs that don't exist. This year as many as 24 million people will be competing for as few as 8 million newly created jobs.
To combat unemployment, the Chinese government in recent weeks has reinstituted controls that in some ways turn back the clock to the "iron rice bowl" era that China has tried so hard to leave behind during 30 years of economic reforms.
Among the most radical measures is an order by some provinces and cities that prohibits companies from laying off workers without the explicit permission of the government. Other local governments are offering a subsidy of about $1,500 for every worker hired who had not already had a job elsewhere, and seed money for start-ups that will employ a certain number of people. The central government for its part has purchased millions of tons of cotton, soybeans, sugar and other products to prevent companies from experiencing financial problems that would lead to a reduction in their workforces.
And as part of its massive $586 billion stimulus plan -- roughly 15 percent of its GDP -- China has embarked on several dubious public works projects.
A $3 billion metro rail system linking the southern manufacturing cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen, for instance, has been criticized as a waste of money because there are already four railway lines linking the cities and the trains often run empty. Ditto a $4.5 billion highway connecting the Sichuan province cities of Chengdu, Zigong and Luzhou, because there are already highways from Chengdu to Zigong and from Zigong to Luzhou.
A bridge running from just outside Shanghai to a textile manufacturing center on the other side of a bay was also resurrected to create construction jobs. For years, its designers had been unable to get the $2 billion they needed to build it because its route would mostly duplicate that of another massive bridge that was already under construction.
That changed in November when at least six of the biggest employers at the other end of the bridge, in Shaoxing, went out of business. Even though there is less need because of the closures, blueprints for the second bridge were dusted off and, almost overnight, workers broke ground. The project is expected to employ about 250,000 people and indirectly provide jobs for 300,000 more.
Liu Bo, a 20-year-old salesman, said he hasn't seen any benefits from the government's efforts in his job search yet. Technically speaking, Liu wasn't laid off but told by his employer, which provides sales help to companies during exhibitions, to take an unpaid "break" because there was no work. He has been sending out his résumé to company after company, but so far nothing. In previous years, Liu said, "I used to receive two or three interview invitation calls every day whenever I sent out my CV, but now there is really nobody who calls me." He is not hopeful about the government efforts: "I never want to depend on the government."
Liu is not the only one to discover the limits of China's deep pockets. For all the help it is giving workers at factories in the export-heavy region of Guangdong province on the country's southern border, the government simply can't afford to pay every worker every yuan they are owed.
Now dealing with the third month of protests and sit-ins, the government has been gradually reducing its cash payouts to laid-off workers. The workers at the Jianrong Suitcase Factory, who make an average of about $220 a month, finally accepted the government's money and went home after their bosses couldn't be located. But it was not without a fight that left workers with scrapes and bruises and, more important, resentment over their fate.
Still, the Jianrong workers are among the lucky ones. Tong Hengxin, a headhunter in Guangzhou, said some laid-off factory workers are getting back much less from the government, only a third of what they rightfully earned. With job prospects bleak, that money can't last long. As a result, Tong said, the mood is desperate: "Workers are always threatening to jump from the buildings and commit suicide."
Researchers Liu Liu, Liu Songjie, and Zhang Jie in Beijing contributed to this report.
【译文】
随着中国失业人数增加，抗议变得更大胆
经济下滑使社会问题增多
华盛顿邮报驻外事务处
星期二，2009年1月13号
北京报道——几个月以来，共产党能够把对工厂关闭的愤慨转移到公司身上。共产党则通过给予工厂以资金来发放工人的薪水使自己变身为仁慈的救世主。这种模式在12月末的建荣（音）箱包厂失去了光芒。
当提供给工人60%的薪水来让他们解散抗议，然后回家时，工人们逼退前来的防暴警察，把他们锁在位于华南东莞的工厂内。据目击者称，100多盛怒的工人穿过警戒线，高呼“这里根本没有人权”。
由于全球衰退和中国经济增长的乏力带来的众多失业工人变得越来越大胆地表达他们的不悦——展开了一个争论：如何在与其他事务，例如言论自由和法律平等的争论中保护中国经济。在过去20年，对中国人权记录的关注被中国经济发展速度和增长的国际影响力掩盖了。
但是伴随着经济危机的加剧，使中国当局面临大大小小的挑战。
去年11月，在中国最大的直辖市重庆的一个模仿在1989年丑化毛泽东肖像的抗议中，两个因土地协议争议的村民带着臭鸡蛋，污损党旗和国旗。12月，300名学者和其他知识分子通过网络签署了一个被人们所知的08宪章的文章，使得中国当局在全国追捕它的作者。
劳工权利积极分子李强（音）说，中国经济问题使得长久存在的社会问题凸显出来——例如城市富人和乡村贫民间不断增长的收入差和工人权利的斗争——最近的爆发却被政府轻描淡写了。李，设在纽约的中国劳工观察的主管李说：“在西方，危机仅仅是经济方面的；但是在中国，这是巨大的政治问题”。
经济下降的连锁反应在增长：犯罪率在增加，伴随着由出租车司机、教师、工人、甚至不满股票市值只是最高时的30%的投资者参与的罢工。
尽管当局在最近能够迅速解散抗议者，但人们担心如果某一全国性的事件被当局胡乱处理，可能会造成一系列的政治危机。新华社的一个记者在新华社出版的杂志上警告说：“毫无疑问，我们进入了一个群体性事件频发的时期。在2009年，中国社会将可能面对更多的冲突，这将考验各级政府的执政能力”。
最大的威胁可能来自新增加的失业人员。
失业率估计是共产党自1949年获得政权之后最高的。促进和保障就业已经成为领导人最重大的责任了，他们都知道恶化的经济在1989年天安门事件中扮演的角色。经济学家说，如果中国GDP增长不能达到8%——在大多数国家是一个健康的增长率——在中国就是灾难，原因是对工作岗位的需求远大于它产生的量。
官方的统计机构估计在农村失业者超过1800万，或是全部劳动力的9%——对于还记得毛时代从摇篮到坟墓的就业状况的人是一个难以想象的数据。这些数据不包括1.6亿外来的受雇于工厂的工人中不断上升的失业者。农村的失业率可能高达20%。另外，100万大学毕业生在今年将没有办法找到工作。中国社会保障部部长，尹蔚民已经说了，中国就业形势是‘严峻的’，人们为不存在的工作而拼搏。今年有2400万人为新增的800万工作展开争夺。
为了与失业做斗争，中国政府最近几周重新建立了控制措施，在某些方面甚至回到了‘铁饭碗’时期，这可是中国在30年改革中想极力摆脱的。在这些激进的措施中包括这么一条，在一些省份和城市没有政府的明确许可，禁止公司裁员。另一些地方政府给那些尚未在其他地方找到工作的工人提供1500美元的补贴，设立种子基金来给那些雇佣一定人数的企业。中央政府购买了数百万吨的棉花、大豆、糖和其他产品，来阻止公司遭受经济问题而可能导致他们雇员数的下降。
作为5860亿美元经济刺激方案的一部分——15%的GDP——中国已经开始了几个有问题的公共建设项目。
一个30亿美元的连接南方工业城市广州、东莞、深圳的都市铁路项目就被批评是浪费资源，因为在这些城市之间已经有4条铁路线了，火车经常开空车。另一个重复的工程就是，花费45亿美元的连接四川成都、自贡和泸州的高速公路，因为成都到自贡，自贡到泸州已经有高速路了。
一个横跨上海外滩到海湾另一侧的纺织加工中心的桥梁也重新开始了，以创造就业。多年来，这个工程的设计者从来没有办法获得他们所需的20亿元，因为他们的路线和一个再建的项目几乎是一样的。当11月在桥的另一端的绍兴至少有六家企业停业时，他们得到了机会。尽管由于关闭而变得不那么必要。第二座桥的设计图被重新使用，差不多在同一个晚上，工人们破土动工了。这个工程将雇佣25万人，间接给30多万人提供就业机会。
刘波（音），一个20岁的推销员，说，“他没有发现政府的努力对他找工作有多大帮助”。从技术上讲，刘没有失业，但是被在展会上帮助提高销售的雇主告知，无薪休假，因为现在没有活要干。他已经把自己的求职申请向很多公司提交了，但是没有得到任何东西。之前，刘说：“曾经不管我什么时候投出我的简历，每天都可以收到2到3个面试的电话，但现在几乎没人给我打电话”。他对政府的努力不报任何希望，“我从来就不曾想过依靠政府”。
刘不是唯一一个发现中国财力的限制的人。在中国南部的广东省，在给予这些出口型企业的帮助时，中国政府不可能付给工人们他们被拖欠的每一分钱。
在处理抗议和静坐的第三个月，政府在降低给予失业工人的现金支出。那些在建荣箱包厂的工人，每月有大概220美元，在他们的老板不知所踪的情况下，最终接受了政府的钱，然后回家了。但这并不是没有经过让他们受到轻微伤害的斗争，更重要的是，对他们命运的愤怒。
建荣厂的工人仍然是幸运的。童恒新（音），一个猎头公司的员工说，有一些失业者从政府那儿得到的更少，只有他们挣得的三分之一。工作前景黯淡，这些钱支持不了多久。结果将是，童说，绝望的心情是：“工人们一直被着逼跳楼和自杀”。
北京的研究员刘浏（音）、刘松杰（音）、张杰（音）对此文有贡献。
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-1-14 17:11
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2009-1-14 17:26
鼓惑性的而已 还不是想让中国政变嘛 切 无聊的白种人
