中国经济面临危机！

shaoboss

【原文标题】China's Economy Faces New Problems
【中文标题】中国经济面临危机！
【登载媒体】Seeking Alpha, NY
【来源地址】http://seekingalpha.com/article/115201-china-s-economy-faces-new-problems
【翻译】shaoboss
【原文】

Thursday I noted there would be more bank failures announced on Fridays. Well, Sheila Bair just proved me right again. It is so tough being me and being right so often - though it really helps to make easy predictions.
My prediction by the way was based upon increasing problems in commercial real estate and small business loans, both of which are quite problematic for local and regional banks. Expect many more this year.
China, Oh China
I write a lot about China as my daughter is from there and her mei mei, little sister, should be coming from there in about two months. I also write about it because it is the number three economy, the largest world population and a major potential place for political and social unrest in years to come. Fitch is now predicting a hard landing in China. If you have followed me (and perhaps believe me) this is no surprise. I mean this fits right into my two-plus-two theory of financial life. Two-plus-two is simply my own approach to macro-economic ideas. Not unique to me, just how I like to think about it. Let's apply two-plus-two to China.
Here we have a lot of twos, but you will get the idea. What does China face?

All their trading partners, for the most part, are in a severe recession, so they are not selling much. The Baltic Dry Index, an index of shipping, is at absolutely rock bottom. Much of this is due to a lack of trade but some of it is due to a lack of credit and letters of credit that allow trade to flow on ships. Either way, not good for China. China needs about 8% growth just to tread water. Anything less there is a recession, and right now it is looking like much less.
• China is not totally export driven, but another major domestic business support is commercial real estate, and that area is really sucking wind right now.

There are more reasons, but these are up there. These are objective factors that simply prove what otherwise is speculation. China, like the rest of the world, is in dire straights.
Job Losses Continuing
This is hardly a surprise that job losses continue. Unemployment usually peaks long after a recession ends and right now we are not seeing the light at the end of this recession tunnel. Here are some of the latest losses, which I think adds up to about 50,000 jobs. We truly need to help these people instead of spending $138 billion on BofA. Spending that much on a company that helped to cause the problem when we have so many more more pressing problems is making me sick. This is just disgusting what we are doing. Just my opinion.

【中文】

      星期四，我就预测会有更多的银行在周五倒闭。结果，美国联邦存款保险公司的主席希拉·拜尔向人们证明了我的推断。这段时间我的预测总是很准，虽然我并不开心，但是我还是想向大家介绍一下我的预测方法。
     
     我的预测结果是根据商业房地产和小型商业贷款的状况来推断的。这两个因素对本地以及地区银行的影响极大，在今年尤其突出。
   
     我的家庭与中国有着密切关系。因为我的女儿来自中国，她的妹妹也将于两个月后来到美国。所以我写了许多关于中国的报道。作为世界第三大经济体和人口最多的国家，中国在这次金融危机中同样受到严重的影响。以我的预测，未来几年，中国将爆发政治和社会危机。 菲奇（Fitch）金融集团预测中国经济将硬着陆。如果您一直观看我的文章并支持我的观点，您就不会对此感到惊讶。因为这个结果符合我的经济理论。我的理论属于宏观经济范畴，并不独特。现在我就用这一方法来分析中国经济。
   
     从以下分析中，我们可以看到中国将面临的危机。

    1. 中国大多数的贸易伙伴现在正处于严重的衰退中，严重影响外贸出口。

    2. 作为全球货运最为权威的分析指数，波罗的海干散货运价指数已经跌倒谷底。大部分原因是货运量下降，小部分原因是各国银行拒绝为国际贸易提供担保（信用证）。这两项因素都对中国不利。

    3. 中国需要维持8%以上的GDP增长率以维护国家稳定。增长率低于8%对中国经济而言就是衰退。而根据现有情况预测，未来GDP增长率将持续下降。

    4. 中国经济并不是完全靠外贸拉动。但作为支撑中国经济发展的最大贸易部门，商业房地产业正遭遇寒冬。
   
    除上诉因素外，还有很多指标可以对中国经济的未来发展进行预测。与全球其它国家相同，中国正面临可怕地经济衰退。

    失业率持续上升对大家而言已经见怪不怪了。通常情况下，经济衰退结束的时候，失业率达到顶峰。而现在，金融危机还远未结束。根据最新统计，失业人数已经达到5万。与其将一千三百八十亿美元投入到问题缠身的银行机构，不如将这些钱用于救济失业人员。因为银行系统已经深陷危机，无法自拔。以上只是我个人对拯救金融危机的一些看法，不代表任何组织和机构。

黑桃A

哈？看了西媒后得出的结论？

中华武士

乐此比疲的唱衰中国是西方最开心的事

墨羽

“new problems”是“新的问题”，不是“危机”。