【原文标题】China's flagging economy Strong as an ox?
【中文标题】中国经济的不景气 气壮如牛？
【登载媒体】经济学人
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12994821
【翻译】清欢
【声 明】本文翻译仅限Anti-CNN使用，谢绝转载。
China's flagging economy
中国经济的不景气
Strong as an ox?
气壮如牛？
Jan 22nd 2009 | SHANGHAI
2009年11月22日 上海
From The Economist print edition
来自经济学人出版本
China’s annual GDP growth falls to 6.8%. How much worse can it get?
中国年度GDP增长跌至6.8%。这一数据还能更糟吗？
THE beast which gives its name to the Chinese new year that begins on January 26th is meant to symbolise prosperity through fortitude and hard work, offering hope that China will soon regain its economic vigour. But an ox is often a castrated bull—which may be an apt description of China’s economic pain. New figures show that China’s GDP growth fell to 6.8% in the year to the fourth quarter, down from 9% in the third quarter and half its 13% pace in 2007. Growth of 6.8% may still sound pretty robust, but it implies that growth was virtually zero on a seasonally adjusted basis in the fourth quarter.
中国新年将于1月26日开启的，用来给这一年命名的瑞兽象征着依靠坚韧步伐和艰苦努力而实现繁荣，这给中国经济迅速重获活力带来希望。但是ox 常常指被阉割的公牛——这可能更适合形容中国经济之痛。新的数据表明中国第四季度GDP增长跌至6.8%，低于第三季度的9%，只有2007年同期的13%。6.8%的增长率可能听起来依然强健，但是这意味着第四季度的这一增长实际上是季度调整基数的零点。
Industrial production has slowed even more sharply, growing by only 5.7% in the 12 months to December, compared with an 18% pace in late 2007. Thousands of factories have closed and millions of migrant workers have already lost their jobs. But there could be worse to come. Chinese exports are likely to drop further in coming months as world demand shrinks. Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC, forecasts that exports in the first quarter could be 19% lower than a year ago. 2009 may well see the first full-year decline in exports in more than a quarter of a century.
工业产值的放缓更加急剧，相较于2007年的18%，12月份的增长只有5.7%。数千家工厂已经关闭，数百万民工已经失业。但是情况可能更糟。由于全球需求缩水，中国的出口可能在未来几个月内进一步下降。汇丰银行(HSBC)经济学家曲宏宾预测第一季度的出口额可能比去年同期减少19%。2009年完全可能出现半个世纪以来首次全年出口额下降。
Economists have become gloomier about China’s prospects, with many now predicting GDP growth of only 5-6% in 2009, the lowest for almost two decades. The most dismal view comes from Albert Edwards, at Société Générale, a French bank, who thinks China may be sliding into outright recession. He points to a fall in electricity output of 6% in the year to the fourth quarter, down from average annual growth of 15% over the previous five years.
经济学家们已对中国经济的前景更悲观，其中很多人现在预测2009年GDP增长只有5-6%，几乎是二十年来的最低点。就职于法国兴业银行的艾伯特·爱德华斯的看法最悲观，他认为中国正滑入全面衰退。他针对的是第四季度的发电量下降了6%，低于前五年的平均年增长率15%。
In the past, the growth in GDP and electricity use have tended to move together (see chart). Mr Edwards reckons that a decline in electricity output may mean that GDP is falling, no matter what the official figures say. Equally worrying is the OECD’s leading indicator of economic activity in China, which has plunged to its lowest level in its 26-year history, lower even than during the slump in 1989, the year of the Tiananmen Square protests and massacre.
过去GDP和用电量总是保持同进退（如图）。爱德华斯先生认为无论官方数据如何说，用电量的下降可能意味着GDP的下降。同样令人担心的还有经济合作与发展组织中中国经济活动的指标，它已跌到26年来的最低点，甚至比1989年天安门抗议和屠杀时的暴跌更低。
This makes for a compelling story. But the relationship between GDP and electricity consumption has been distorted by the uneven nature of this slowdown. Energy-guzzling heavy industries, such as steel and cement, bore the brunt of China’s downturn late last year. So it is not surprising that electricity use slumped.
这是令人不得不接受的事实。但是GDP和用电量之间的关系被几个经济减速的不均衡性曲解了。耗能多的重工业，例如钢铁和水泥行业，在去年后半年受到了中国经济衰退的冲击，所以用电量下降不足为奇。
Moreover, too much weight may be given to the declining exports, because it is often wrongly assumed that the slump in China’s growth has been caused mainly by a collapse in its exports to America and other rich economies. Yet in 2008 the fall in net exports (exports minus imports) accounted for less than half of its slowdown. More important was a collapse in housing construction, caused by the government’s efforts to deflate a potential bubble. This, in turn, reduced the demand for materials such as steel. So by the fourth quarter there had been a huge build-up in stocks, exACerbating the fall in production: steel output was 12% lower than a year earlier.
此外，下降的出口可能会承受过多的压力，因为人们经常错误地认为中国经济增长的下滑主要是由于对美国和其他国家出口下降。更重要的是住房建设的下滑，这是由政府实行紧缩挤压潜在泡沫的努力造成的。这反过来减少了对建筑材料（例如钢铁）的需求。所以到第四季度为止已经形成了巨大的原材料库存，加剧了产出的下降：钢铁产量比去年下降12%
GDP growth is likely to continue to fall during the first half of 2009, sounding alarm bells among those who repeat the official mantra that China needs to grow by at least 8% a year to avoid social unrest (even though that number has no sound economic basis). But there is good reason to hope that by midyear the economy will perk up as destocking comes to an end and the government’s fiscal stimulus kicks in.
2009年上半年GDP增长可能会继续下降，这在一些人听起来像是警钟，这些人重复着千篇一律的咒语：中国至少需要8%的GDP增长率以避免社会动荡的局面（即使这一数字没有合理的经济依据） 。但是有足够的理由期待到年中，当缩减储量结束并且政府的财政刺激奏效，经济将会重新活跃起来。
China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) package of infrastructure spending, subsidies and tax cuts for businesses has been trashed by many commentators as another “Chinese fake”. Most of it is not new money, they claim, and the central government will finance less than one-third of the planned spending; most of the rest will have to come from banks, which in the current climate may be reluctant to lend.
包括基础设施、经济援助和商业减税在内，中国的4万亿元（5850亿美元）一揽子计划，被很多评论员们斥为另一起“中国式造假”。他们认为其中很大一部分并不是新货币，中央政府提供的资金将会不足一揽子计划的三分之一，剩下的大部分则会来自银行，在当前形势下银行可能不情愿借钱。
It is true that some of the extra spending had already been announced, but what matters for economic growth is how much spending will actually increase this year. The answer is a lot. For example, JPMorgan forecasts that transport investment will expand by an impressive 70% in 2009. HSBC estimates a total spending boost of 6-7% of GDP over this year and next.
的确，一些额外的支出已被公布，但与经济增长有关的是究竟多少支出能在今年实际增加。答案是：很多。例如，摩根大通预测2009交通投资的将增长到令人叹为观止的70%，汇丰银行估计这将刺激今年和明年6-7%的GDP增长。
Since the November package, the government has introduced other measures to support the economy. On January 21st it announced extra spending of 850 billion yuan over three years to improve health care. From February rural residents will get a 13% rebate on purchases of goods such as refrigerators, TVs and washing machines. Consumer spending will be dented by job losses and smaller wage rises but has so far remained strong, with retail sales up by 18% in real terms in the year to December. Interest rates have also been cut five times since September and, much more important, controls on bank lending have been scrapped. To help the property sector, minimum down-payments have been reduced from 30-40% of a home’s value to 20%, the transaction tax has been waived for properties held for at least two years, and more public housing is to be built.
自从11月份的一揽子计划以来，政府已经采取了其他方法刺激经济。1月21日政府宣布在三年内投资850亿元以改善卫生保健状况。从二月份起，农村居民在购买诸如电冰箱、电视机和洗衣机等商品时，将得到13%的折扣。消费者的购买力会受到事业和小幅降薪的削弱，但是到目前为止仍很强，实际上12月份零售额增加了18%。自9月份以来已经5次降息，放松对银行借贷的控制。为了帮助房地产市场，最低首付额已经从房款的30-40% 降到20%，至少在两年内不收取房产交易税，同时为低收入者建造更多住房。
Chris Wood, at CLSA, a brokerage, says the effectiveness of the stimulus hinges on the extent to which China is now a capitalist economy. The more “capitalist” it is, the deeper the downturn now; the more it is still a command economy, the better the chance of recovery in 2009. State-controlled firms, which account for one-third of industrial output and almost half of all investment, have been “asked” not to cut jobs and capital spending. All the big banks are state-owned and their chairmen are appointed by the government. If they get a phone call telling them to lend more, they are likely to do so.
CLSA（译者注：里昂证券，一家证券公司）的经纪人柯瑞斯·伍德说，经济刺激计划的效力取决于目前中国经济资本化的程度。资本化程度越高，现在衰退的程度就越深；现在依然保持指令性经济的程度越高，在2009年复苏的机会越大。占工业产量的三分之一和将近一半投资总量的国有企业，被要求不裁员，不削减资本支出。所有的大银行都是国有银行，同时银行的董事们也由政府任命。如果他们接到要求发放更多贷款的电话，他们很有可能照办。
Banks already seem to be following Beijing’s orders: total lending surged by 19% in the year to December. China is one of the few large economies whose banking system has not been crippled by the global credit crunch. Andy Rothman, also at CLSA, argues that “in China, there is only a credit crunch when the political leadership wants one”. He believes the economy will revive by midyear and achieve GDP growth of close to 8% for 2009 as a whole.
银行似乎已经在遵循背景的命令：12月份贷款总量猛增19%，少数大经济体的银行体系未受到全球信贷危机的波及，中国是其中之一。同在CLSA就职的安迪·罗斯曼指出：“在中国，只有当政府想要信贷危机的时候信贷危机才会发生。”他坚信中国经济将在09年年中复苏，全年GDP增长将接近8%。
The obvious concern is that although heavy-handed government meddling may be more effective than market-based tools to pull an economy out of a deep downturn, it comes at a cost. Public investment will inevitably include some wasteful spending, and politically directed lending could add to excess capacity in some sectors and create new bad loans for banks. This may hobble the bull in the future. But first it needs to regain its virility.
很明显，人们关注的是，比起以市场为基础的工具，尽管政府的重拳干预可能能更有效地将经济推出低谷，但是这是需要付出代价的。公共投资不可避免地带来浪费，同时政策直接干预贷款可能增加一些部门生产过剩和新的银行坏账的可能性。这些可能在未来牵绊中国这头公牛。但是它最需要的是重获阳刚之气。 |
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