中国真的需要美国么

舞飞飏

【原文标题】Does China Really Need the United States?
【中文标题】中国真的需要美国么
【登载媒体】 Safe Haven

【来源地址】http://www.safehaven.com/article-12769.htm

【译    者】舞飞飏

【声    明】译文版权归AC及译者所有，转载请注明来源

【翻译方式】人工翻译

Does China Really Need the United States?
中国真的需要美国么
by Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz







The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 150 points on Wednesday on hopes of a second Chinese stimulus package. This rally shows the dependence the world has on the resurgence of China and begs the question: Does China needs the US or do we need China? As discussed below, it should be clear that the US needs China.
由于中国的第二个刺激计划的出台，周三道琼斯指数升了150点。表示出世界反弹依赖于中国的再次抬头，同时提出了一个问题：中国需要美国或者我们需要中国？通过以下的讨论，我们就可以清楚是美国需要中国。
The chart below shows an estimated composition of Wednesday's moves.
下面的表格显示的对周三指数变化的贡献情况



Caterpillar, Chevron and Exxon - the commodity-related companies that benefit from a growing Chinese economy - added 47 points or 31% of the index's gains. Without China and global growth, the outlook for these American companies, like all domestic American companies, is bleak to non-existent.
卡特彼勒，雪佛龙和埃克森-受益于中国经济增长的与商品有关的公司-为道指涨幅贡献47点或者31%。没有中国或者世界的增长，这些公司将会和其他国内公司一样，没有未来。
The bottom five financial companies (quasi-financial in GE's case) subtracted 18 points from the index's advance. Even more interesting, without China buying our government debt and keeping US interest rates absurdly low, all five companies already would have been forced to file bankruptcy which, in the short-term, would create even bigger problems for the US economy.
最底下的5个金融公司（GE是准金融公司）下拖指数18点。更有趣的是，没有中国购买我们的国债并保持美国利率几乎荒谬的低，这五个公司将在短期内破产，对美国经济造成更为严重的问题。
It is also worth mentioning Walmart in any discussion regarding our dependence on China. If not for China, Walmart's profits would be lower because its costs would be higher. Furthermore, lower prices at Walmart increase Americans' purchasing power and in turn raise our standard of living. The Chinese, on the other hand, barely benefit by receiving more Dollars each day in exchange for their hard work for wages that are below what Americans would be paid in the US. Thanks to China, our standard of living is much higher than it would be otherwise.
同时在这个话题中值得一提的是沃尔玛。如果不是中国，由于成本的增加，沃尔玛的收益将会减少。此外，沃尔玛低廉的价格加强了美国人的购买力，提升了日常生活水平。另一方面中国人几乎没有受益，即使他们拿到更多的美金作为他们辛勤劳动的报酬，他们的工资低于美国人在国内做同样工作的报酬。感谢中国，我们的生活水平远高于没有中国的情况。
Looking ahead, as US interest rates remain low, foreign governments stimulate growth, and the dollar begins to fall, the large weighting of commodity/international companies in the DJIA will help the index rise (see second column in table above). But this by no means will signal that the US economy is improving. In fact, the rise of CAT, CVX and XOM on Wednesday actually signified a decline in the relative standard of living of US citizens. China will be consuming commodities, which will push up prices and inflation in the United States while not providing similar job growth in this country. Ultimately, this will force interest rates higher in the United States, which will pressure domestic spending and domestic asset prices (this is even before taking into account the funding needs of the Obama budget deficit).
展望未来，随着美国利率继续走低，外国政府刺激经济增长，美元开始下跌，在DJLA占大比例的商品/国际公司将有助于提升道指（具体见上表第二栏）。但这并不代表美国经济的好转。事实上，周三CAT,CVX和XOM的上涨标志着美国公民生活水平的相对下降。中国将会消费商品，同时推动油价上涨和美国的通货膨胀，但是却不能提供相应的工作机会。最终将会迫使美国利率上升，促进国内消费和国内资产价格增长。（这个还是在未把奥巴马财政赤字的需求考虑进去之前）
Wednesday was a preview of what lies ahead for the United States and global financial markets. Recently, fixed income investors have been buying assets that the United States Government/Central Bank has been buying/guaranteeing. This strategy is partially right. Investors should be buying the assets that will benefit from the Chinese Government's stimulus rather than those artificially supported by the US Government. Certain US stocks will benefit from China's growth such as the ones that rose Wednesday. However, should this occur, the standard of living in the US will be sacrificed and it will be clear that US investors actually need China much more than China needs the US. The best way to capitalize on this situation is through commodities and domestic Asian companies.
周三是对美国和全球金融市场面对的未来的预览。最近，固定收入投资者已经开始购买美国政府/中央银行一直在购买和保证的资产。这个计策是部分正确的。投资者应该购买受益于中国政府刺激计划的资产，而不是美国政府表面支持的。正如周三显示的，部分美国股票将受益于中国经济增长。然而，这些的发生将会损害美国生活水平，而且将清楚的表明美国投资者的确需要中国更多于中国需要美国。最好的方法是通过商品和国内亚洲公司利用并收益于现在的情况。

odysseus

好多东西都要相互相乘

Everest

数字看不太明白，不过，现在不仅是美国，世界都需要中国，只是中国愿意不愿意的问题

Everest

数字看不太明白，不过，现在不仅是美国，世界都需要中国，只是中国愿意不愿意的问题

袭明

美国是警察大人啊，你不需要他是不可能的呀。

cqzh100

难得见到外国佬说人话的，这篇还算公道