中巴友谊日渐式微？
（巴基斯坦总统阿西夫-阿里-扎尔达里于2008年10月15日首次访华，中国国家主席胡锦涛在人民大会堂前举行欢迎仪式，图为两人检阅仪仗队。）
【来源】时代周刊http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1880689,00.html
【翻译】清溪照影（tenderstorm仅供Anti-CNN.COM，未经许可，切勿转载。）
（2009年2月19日星期四 薇薇安-萨拉玛发自伊斯兰堡）中国有句古话：再多给老朋友一分钱，就可得到丰厚财富。本周五，中国的一位老朋友将到中国访问。巴基斯坦总统阿西夫-阿里-扎尔达里在4个月内再度访问中国，并将和中国政商两界领袖举行会谈。作为美国领导的反恐战争的关键盟友，巴基斯坦如今急需资金和友邦，正指望中国能施以援手。但中国会把钱给巴基斯坦，继续为这个问题缠身的老盟友扮演超级英雄的角色么？
作为巴基斯坦“全天候的朋友”，中国在印巴对抗中一直力挺巴基斯坦。两国的关系要追溯至1950年，当时巴基斯坦加入了由几个承认共产中国的国家组成的阵营。1962年，中印因为喜马拉雅山区边界争端爆发战争，从而进一步使中巴结成盟友共同反印。之后，北京经常对伊斯兰堡经济援助，也有不带附加条件的军事援助，并支持巴基斯坦的核计划。
虽然中巴没有和美印那样签订民用核协议，中国却在巴基斯坦投入巨资建设几座核电站。和美巴关系不同的是，中巴之间的协议极少附带条件。“因为美国不支持巴基斯坦的核计划，我们就去找中国。我们知道，中国对巴基斯坦向来是有求必应，”拉合尔旁遮普大学南亚研究中心主任穆罕默德-萨利姆-马兹哈尔说。很多中国出资的基建工程项目正在施工，包括在霍尔木兹海峡边上开发建设瓜达尔港。
然而随着巴基斯坦的安全局势日益紧张、经济状况日趋恶化，这两个亲密朋友的关系或许会遭遇回潮。“形势和以前大不一样了，”哈佛大学中国研究中心主任教授柯伟林说，“印度在本地区日益强势。而巴基斯坦却没有成为它的支持者们所期望的那样，如今成了影响地区安全的最大因素之一。”
北京近来没有加大对老盟友的援助，却明显地和伊斯兰堡保持距离。扎尔达里在去年10月访华，请求中国对其实施大规模的经济救助，而中方态度冷淡。虽然中国去年向伊斯兰堡提供了5亿美元的软贷款，但离要支撑巴基斯坦所需的140亿美元相距甚远。“穆沙拉夫主政期间的那种合作关系不复存在了，”渣打银行卡拉奇分行经济师萨耶姆-阿里说，“中国更愿意和美印修好关系，这对巴基斯坦可不是个好消息，因为巴基斯坦一直以来依赖中国的帮助。”
近来巴基斯坦靠近阿富汗的西部边境地区局势不稳，加上连续发生了几起针对中国人的绑架事件，这也许会迫使中国在本地区另找更可信赖的盟友，至少可以保持自身稳定以便于中国寻求战略和经济利益。“如今巴基斯坦需要中国，更甚于中国需要巴基斯坦，这就是巴基斯坦对中巴关系比较热衷的原因所在，而在中国却并不这样，”亚太政治民主促进中心主任沙比尔-契马说。
然而，尽管巴基斯坦这个有核国家的局势常常混乱不堪，可中国无法对之视而不见。比如，阿富汗国内冲突不断，和巴基斯坦西北边境省的政治局势盘根错节，而中国新疆的维族分裂分子从中受到鼓动和支持。“如今我们看到的情况是，中国和印度逐渐成为全球强国，而巴基斯坦却处于国内危机之中。”柯伟林说，“中国无法继续承担无条件的担保义务，特别是对于巴基斯坦。”
中国人在巴基斯坦经受的危险和其他外国人并无二致。巴基斯坦军队和塔利班激进武装份子在饱受战火摧残的舒瓦特谷地达成临时性停火协议之后，武装份子才释放被绑架6个月的中国工程师龙晓伟。北京就这起事件做出了非同寻常的强硬表态。
巴基斯坦的国内困局也可能使中国只得继续大力支持这个老盟友。旁遮普大学的亚洲安全问题专家艾哈迈德-艾贾兹认为，对于中国来说，背弃巴基斯坦的代价极为巨大。“巴基斯坦局势不稳就会使中国局势不稳。”他说：“中国明白这一点，所以不会对巴基斯坦置之不理。”（清溪照影翻译）
Thursday, Feb. 19, 2009
Pakistan and China: A Fraying Friendship?
By Vivian Salama / Islamabad
There is an old Chinese proverb that says to attract good fortune, spend a new penny on an old friend. On Friday, an old friend is due to come calling in China. Pakistan's President Asif Zardari will make his second visit to China in four months for meetings with senior political and business leaders. A key ally in the U.S.-led "War on Terror," Pakistan — desperate for money and in need of a good friend — has recently found itself beckoning China for rescue. But is China willing to invest its pennies in Pakistan, much less play superhero for an old but now problematic ally?
Once an "all-weather friend," China stood with Pakistan during its old confrontations with India. Ties between the two countries date back to 1950 after Pakistan joined a small handful of nations in recognizing the communist People's Republic of China. In 1962, war broke out between China and India over the disputed Himalayan border region, further aligning China and Pakistan in the name of a common enmity toward India. Since then, Beijing has often offered its support to Islamabad in the way of economic assistance, but also with no-strings-attached military aid and support to Pakistan's nuclear program.
Although China has not signed an official nuclear agreement similar to the civilian nuclear pact between the U.S. and India, it has invested heavily in the construction of several nuclear power plants in Pakistan. Unlike its relationship with the U.S, Pakistan's agreements with China seldom came with conditions. "The U.S. hasn't offered to support nuclear projects with Pakistan, so we go to China where we know we are always very warmly welcomed," says Muhammad Saleem Mazhar, director of the Center for South Asian Studies at the University of Punjab in Lahore. Various Chinese-funded projects are also currently underway to boost Pakistan's infrastructure, including the development of a port on the Strait of Hormuz at Gwadar.
However, with Pakistan's security situation growing increasingly volatile and economic conditions turning dire, there may be a turn in tide between these once intimate friends. "The situation is much different now than once upon a time," says William Kirby, T. M. Chang Professor of China Studies at Harvard University. "India has emerged as a much more powerful force in the region and Pakistan has not succeeded in the way that hopeful and loyal supporters had once imagined. It is now one of the great security risks in the region."
Instead of increasing assistance to its old ally, Beijing has apparently been keeping a distance from Islamabad. During Zardari's visit in October, the Chinese snubbed the Pakistani President's request for a full-blown economic bailout. While Beijing did grant Islamabad a soft loan last year worth $500 million, it was nowhere near the estimated $14 billion experts say is needed to get Pakistan back on its feet. "The cooperation we saw during the Musharraf era just isn't there anymore," says Sayem Ali, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Karachi. "China would rather develop better relations with India and the U.S., which is not great news for Pakistan because it has always relied on China's help."
The recent instability along Pakistan's Western border with Afghanistan, as well as a series of abductions of Chinese nationals, could lead China to look elsewhere for more reliable friends in the region — allies who can at least guarantee some sort of stability for China to pursue its strategic and economic interests. "Pakistan today needs China more than China needs Pakistan — that is why there is more enthusiasm in Pakistan about its relations with China than vice-versa," says Shabbir Cheema, director of the Asia-Pacific Governance and Democracy Initiative.
China, however, cannot afford to turn a blind eye to a nuclear-powered Pakistan that seems to be constantly teetering on chaos. For one, Uighur separatists in China's Xinjiang province often find inspiration and support in the turmoil in Afghanistan, a conflict entangled in the politics of Pakistan's tumultuous North-Western Frontier Province. "We are now looking at a situation where China and India are on their way to becoming global powers and Pakistan is really in a position of endemic crisis," says Kirby. "China can longer afford to make any unconditional guarantees — particularly where Pakistan is concerned."
Pakistan's troubles, however, are likely to keep China involved in keeping its old ally afloat. Ahmed Ejaz, an expert on Asian security at the University of Punjab, believes that for China, the stakes are far too great for it to turn its back on Pakistan. "An unstable Pakistan will lead to an unstable China," says Ejaz. "They know this so they will never leave us alone."
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发表于 2009-3-22 06:02
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