路透社：China lending, money supply growth hit record highs

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【原文网址】http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53A0C720090411
【刊登媒体】路透社（英国）
【原文】

Sat Apr 11, 2009 3:32am EDT
By Jason Subler and Zhou Xin



BEIJING (Reuters) - China's new lending and money supply growth both surged to record highs in March, as banks continued their explosive credit expansion in support of the government's efforts to rejuvenate the economy.

Banks extended 1.89 trillion yuan ($276.6 billion) in local currency-denominated loans in March, bringing the total for the first quarter to 4.58 trillion yuan -- nearing the government's full-year target of at least 5 trillion yuan.

That helped lift annual growth in the broad M2 measure of money supply to a record 25.5 percent in March, up from 20.5 percent in February and easily exceeding economists' expectations of a 21.3 percent rise.

Liquidity surged despite the smallest quarterly rise in the country's foreign exchange reserves since the second quarter of 2001, reflecting slowing inflows through the trade surplus and foreign investment.

The reserves rose just $7.7 billion in the first three months, reaching $1.9537 trillion at the end of March.

Analysts saw the lending figures as a sign that Beijing's moves to boost domestic demand were working, but they also cautioned against jumping to the conclusion that a rebound was on the immediate horizon.

"China has completed over 90 percent of its full-year target for bank lending in the first three months, and this is absolutely not sustainable," said Zhang Xiaojing, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.

"In addition, I don't think we can say that the worst time for the Chinese economy is over," he said. "The March lending is strong, but whether the strong growth in bank credit can revive the real economy sector is still unclear."

One of the main concerns about the surge in lending has been that it could be financing stock market speculation as much as actual investment and spending, as reflected in the relatively high proportion of short-term bill financing in the totals.

Discounted bill financing, which firms use for short-term cash needs, accounted for 1.48 trillion yuan of the first quarter's new lending, or 32.3 percent of the total.

The People's Bank of China did not give a breakdown of the proportion for March, but it appears to have fallen, as the proportion was over 45 percent in February and about 40 percent in January, which economists would see as a good sign.

DIFFICULTIES REMAIN

The surge in growth in the narrower M1 measure of money supply, to 17.0 percent in March from 10.9 percent in February, will likely be taken by analysts as a sign that businesses and consumers are switching more money to demand deposits -- not included in M2 -- as they prepare to ramp up spending.

Ding Jianping, a professor with the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said the rapid increase in money supply was not unreasonable.

"At home, China needs strong money and credit growth to support the economy; looking abroad, other countries like the U.S. and Japan are also increasing money supply," Ding said.
China's economy has been hit hard by rapidly falling exports, but Beijing has launched a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package to soften the blow by boosting investment and consumption.

Premier Wen Jiabao, speaking to reporters in Pattaya, Thailand on Saturday on the sidelines of a summit of Asian leaders, said that the economic situation was better than expected but that the government had to remain vigilant.

"China's economy has shown some positive signs, but we can all see that our economy still faces some very big difficulties," Wen said.

The external challenges to China's economy brought about by the financial crisis are reflected in part by the slower foreign exchange reserve accumulation.

The reserves fell by $32.6 billion in January, their biggest monthly drop on record, the central bank data showed on Saturday. They fell again in February, by $1.4 billion, then rose by $41.7 billion in March, yielding the quarterly increase of $7.7 billion.

"That is largely up to the external environment -- how much China can earn from its trade and how many capital inflows China will have are not decided by it," Ding said.

(Reporting by Jason Subler and Zhou Xin; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

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